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The 2040 Imperative: Zero Emissions by 2040

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A presentation given in Victoria, February 9, 2014. The written background can be found online at www.bcsea.org//2040-imperative. This presentation is for Canada, but the principles apply globally; the need to reach zero by 2040 (or earlier) is a global imperative.

Publicado en: Medio ambiente
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The 2040 Imperative: Zero Emissions by 2040

  1. 1. www.bcsea.org
  2. 2. The climate deniers’ argument
  3. 3. Barry Saxifrage, May 2014 Reality Check The Rapid Progress of Renewables…?
  4. 4. Reality Check Barry Saxifrage, May 2014
  5. 5. Exported and imported carbon emissions
  6. 6. Potsdam Institute
  7. 7. 2°C “A nice Utopia” International Energy Agency chief economist Fatih Birol
  8. 8. 2°C “We need a miracle” International negotiations chief Christiana Figueres
  9. 9. “The idea of a 2°C target is largely out of the window.” Former UK government advisor Professor Sir Robert Watson
  10. 10. “There is no longer a non-radical option. If developed economies are to play an equitable role in holding warming to 2°C with 66% probability it would require at least a 40% reduction by 2018, 70% reduction by 2024 and 90% by 2030. This would require “in effect a Marshall plan for energy supply.” Kevin Anderson Deputy Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Research
  11. 11. 2°C
  12. 12. 2°C is the boundary between ‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’ James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist
  13. 13. 2012
  14. 14. 493GT 2015
  15. 15. 304GT 2020
  16. 16. 104GT 2025
  17. 17. 0 2030
  18. 18. for a 75% chance that the global temperature will not rise by 2°C The 2015 Global Carbon Budget 493Gigatonnes of CO2
  19. 19. = a 25% chance that we’ll crash right through the 2°C barrier The 2015 Global Carbon Budget 493Gigatonnes of CO2
  20. 20. 2012: 699 MT
  21. 21. Canada’s Other Greenhouse Gases Methane Nitrous Oxide The F Gases Also all to zero by 2040
  22. 22. Canada’s 2015 CO2 emissions 500Megatonnes of CO2
  23. 23. Canada’s share of global emissions 1.25%
  24. 24. Canada’s share of global emissions 1.25% The Non-Equity Model, divided by current emissions
  25. 25. Canada’s total Carbon Budget 6,000 Mt of CO2
  26. 26. Canada’s share of global emissions 0.5% The Equity Model, divided by population
  27. 27. Canada’s total Carbon Budget 2,400 Mt of CO2 The Equity Model, divided by population Exhausted by 2020
  28. 28. How long will the budget last?
  29. 29. Annual reduction in CO2 emissions % of Canada’s 2015 emissions Year by when zero emissions is achieved Mt of CO2 released before before reaching zero Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level Year by when 6,000 Mt carbon budget is exhausted 5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028 10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029 15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030 20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033 25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a 33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a 50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a CANADA’S CHOICES
  30. 30. Annual reduction in CO2 emissions % of Canada’s 2015 emissions Year by when zero emissions is achieved Mt of CO2 released before before reaching zero Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level Year by when 6,000 Mt carbon budget is exhausted 5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028 10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029 15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030 20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033 25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a 33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a 50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a CANADA’S CHOICES
  31. 31. Annual reduction in CO2 emissions % of Canada’s 2015 emissions Year by when zero emissions is achieved Mt of CO2 released before before reaching zero Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level Year by when 6,000 Mt carbon budget is exhausted 5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028 10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029 15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030 20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033 25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a 33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a 50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a CANADA’S CHOICES
  32. 32. Annual reduction in CO2 emissions % of Canada’s 2015 emissions Year by when zero emissions is achieved Mt of CO2 released before before reaching zero Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level Year by when 6,000 Mt carbon budget is exhausted 5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028 10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029 15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030 20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033 25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a 33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a 50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a CANADA’S CHOICES
  33. 33. Annual reduction in CO2 emissions % of Canada’s 2015 emissions Year by when zero emissions is achieved Mt of CO2 released before before reaching zero Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level Year by when 6,000 Mt carbon budget is exhausted 5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028 10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029 15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030 20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033 25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a 33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a 50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a CANADA’S CHOICES
  34. 34. Annual reduction in CO2 emissions % of Canada’s 2015 emissions Year by when zero emissions is achieved Mt of CO2 released before before reaching zero Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level Year by when 6,000 Mt carbon budget is exhausted 5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028 10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029 15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030 20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033 25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a 33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a 50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a CANADA’S CHOICES
  35. 35. Annual reduction in CO2 emissions % of Canada’s 2015 emissions Year by when zero emissions is achieved Mt of CO2 released before before reaching zero Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level Year by when 6,000 Mt carbon budget is exhausted 5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028 10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029 15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030 20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033 25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a 33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a 50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a CANADA’S CHOICES
  36. 36. Annual reduction in CO2 emissions % of Canada’s 2015 emissions Year by when zero emissions is achieved Mt of CO2 released before before reaching zero Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level Year by when 6,000 Mt carbon budget is exhausted 5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028 10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029 15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030 20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033 25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a 33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a 50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a CANADA’S CHOICES
  37. 37. Canada’s Annual CO2 Reduction 25 Mt of CO2
  38. 38. 25 4932°C 6,000 2015 Global Carbon Budget Gt 2015 Canada Carbon Budget Mt Canada Annual Reduction Mt Increased warming 2015
  39. 39. Zero By 2040
  40. 40. The 2040 Imperative
  41. 41. Starting today
  42. 42. Starting 2020
  43. 43. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Every year 25 Mt CO2 reduction
  44. 44. Fossil fuels imported Fossil fuels extracted
  45. 45. An Annual Fossil Fuel Permits Auction
  46. 46. Each year, 25 Mt CO2 fewer permits
  47. 47. Carbon rationing, for individuals and businesses
  48. 48. The Race to Zero
  49. 49. = The Race to a Clean Green Economy
  50. 50. ELECTRICITY A Federal Clean Energy Plan that helps the provinces to close down all coal-fired power plants by 2025 and all gas-fired power plants by 2040, and…
  51. 51. ELECTRICITY A Federal Clean Energy Plan to ramp up conservation, renewables and power storage to take their place, including geothermal for base-load power.
  52. 52. More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.
  53. 53. 1977: $77 1997: $7 2013: $0.7 Price of Solar Module per Watt
  54. 54. 100 GW in 2012 Solar PV 140-fold increase since 2000 200 GW in 2014
  55. 55. TRANSPORTATION 1. An organized plan to shift all modes of transport to 100% renewable energy by 2040
  56. 56. 2. Municipal and regional goals for increased walking, cycling, carsharing, transit and rail.
  57. 57. 3. Provincial and national goals and incentives for EV uptake.
  58. 58. 4. The electrification of all of Canada’s railways.
  59. 59. 5. The transformation of long-distance freight.
  60. 60. www.bcsea.org
  61. 61. The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries
  62. 62. The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries 2018
  63. 63. The falling emissions from Europe’s cars Grams of CO2 per kilometre
  64. 64. Falling emissions from Europe’s cars Grams of CO2 per kilometre
  65. 65. 2030 Target 0 g/km 100% of new cars and lights trucks electric by 2030 = almost all vehicles by 2040
  66. 66. BUILDINGS Zero emissions from all new buildings starting in 2020. Zero emissions from existing buildings by 2040 through a nationwide program to retrofit every building for greater energy saving and renewable energy for heat.
  67. 67. INDUSTRY A major drive to help companies improve their energy efficiency, and replace the use of coal and gas with biomass or hydrogen.
  68. 68. ALBERTA’S OIL SANDS Factor zero by 2040 into all NEB decisions. Freeze production at current level. Deny licenses for all new pipelines. Close down the last oil sands operation by 2040. Firm up requirements for boreal forest restoration.
  69. 69. THE ECONOMY (1) Eliminate all subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuels. Divest all public funds from fossil fuels. Put an annually increasing price on carbon. Invest the resulting funds in climate solutions. Support the green economy with tax incentives.
  70. 70. THE ECONOMY (2) Create new jobs by applying entrepreneurial skill to R&D, innovation, business start-up, cooperative economic development and other initiatives. Bring in public banking, basic income, work-sharing, employee share ownership, profit-sharing, tax reform, a financial transactions tax, and closure of the world’s tax havens.
  71. 71. The transition from a capitalist economy to a green, entrepreneurial cooperative economy could be one of the defining achievements of the 21st century.
  72. 72. Canada, population 35 million 500 6.6 73,000 26,000 Canada-wide 1.75 A very approximate sense of Canada’s gain blog.floridaenergycenter.org
  73. 73. 10,000 lives could be saved and 76,600 job opportunities created if people in major European cities cycled as much as they do in Copenhagen. World Health Organization, 2014
  74. 74. 655,000 people work in cycling in the EU, most in cycle tourism. If cycling’s modal share were doubled, more than 400,000 new jobs could be created. Cycling has a higher employment intensity per million of turnover than other transport sectors.
  75. 75. The power of our vision must be stronger than the power of our fears
  76. 76. Think of the Age of Fossil Fuels as the LAUNCH RAMP for the Solar Age 30,000 years Firewood 300 years Fossil Fuels Science Engineering Enlightenment Two billion years Solar Energy
  77. 77. A billion years The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years. is 100,000 periods of 10,000 years
  78. 78. A billion years The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years. and with every passing year, our solar technology will improve and fall in price.
  79. 79. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
  80. 80. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.co Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com
  81. 81. Together, we can change the world If you feel inspired, join the BCSEA www.bcsea.org/join

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