This lecture is part of the 2016 ProSPER.Net Young Researchers’ School on sustainable energy for transforming lives: availability, accessibility, affordability

1. Linking Energy Crisis with Climate Change
2016 ProSPER.Net Young Researchers School
Dr Ritu Mathur,
(Professor, TERI University)
February 2, 2016

2. What does climate science tell us?

3. Figure SPM.1b
Observed change in surface temperature 1901-2012
All Figures © IPCC 2013

4. Figure SPM.2
Observed change in annual precipitation over land
All Figures © IPCC 2013

5. What emission trends do we observe?

6. 6
GHG emissions growth has accelerated
despite reduction efforts.

7. GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been
larger than in the previous three decades.
7
Based on Figure 1.3

8. About half of cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions
between 1750 and 2010 have occurred in the last 40 years.
8
Based on Figure 5.3

9. Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is
projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8°C over the 21st century.
9
Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4

10. Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving
away from the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal.
10
Based on Figure 6.7

11. Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving
away from the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal.
11
~3°C
Based on Figure 6.7

12. Mitigation involves substantial upscaling of low-carbon
energy.
12

13. Mitigation involves substantial upscaling of low-carbon
energy.
13
Based on Figure 7.16

14. Mitigation can result in large co-benefits for human health
and other societal goals.
14

15. Mitigation can result in large co-benefits for human health
and other societal goals.
15
Based on Figures 6.33 and 12.23

16. • Energy security considerations
• Local air pollution concerns
• Health
Climate not the only driver of change…

17. Sector-specific policies have been more widely used than
economy-wide policies.
17
Based on Figure 10.15

18. Synergistic suggestions across studies
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. Create an investment climate of confidence
in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research,
development and demonstration (RD&D)

19. • Pace of change
• Fuels, technologies, infrastructure, materials,
behaviour, IT, skill sets
• Multitude of instruments
• Across all sectors
• Encompassing all stakeholders
Need for a paradigm shift ….

20. India’s Energy Choices,
Challenges & Implications
20

21. India’s Energy Snapshot
 Low per capita energy
consumption: 596 kgoe
(2011/12) (World average 1802
kgoe per capita)
 Per capita consumption of
electricity 884 kWh/annum
(2011/12) (World average: 3044
kWh/annum)
 80% of rural India dependent on
traditional fuels for cooking
 Fossil fuels account for about 70%
of the primary energy supply
Sustained economic growth and social development require increasing
energy use 21

22. Energy and Related Challenges
 Large under-served, yet aspiring, population
 Energy demand drivers accelerating rapidly
• Income levels
• Urbanisation
• Access to markets
o Financial
o Consumer goods
• High levels of mobility
• Digitally connected world
 Stagnating, if not declining, conventional energy resources
 Import dependence continually on the rise
• Fossil fuel import bill as a share of total export earnings has grown from
35% in 2001-02 to 60% in 2012-13
• Adverse impacts on our balance of payments, in 2012-13 India’s trade
balance deficit was around US$ 190 Billion
• Rising and volatile fuel prices
 Abundant, under-developed, renewable energy sources
22

23. GSDR Graphs & findings
23

24. India’s growth story:
Implications
• Can we reduce emissions in absolute terms?
• When should we peak?
• Retirements & economic life ?
• The use & throw culture versus recycling?
• Distributional effects of growth
• Access, quality, reliability of energy & services vs GDP
growth
• Impacts of Climate Change on Growth
24

25. Energy efficiency
• Improvements in appliance efficiency or
system-wide efficiencies
• Energy intensity residential sector – Japan case study
• Energy Efficiency or resource efficiency
(materials, water, energy….)
25

26. Rank by Historical responsibility
• Segregation of
mitigation
culpability into
historical and
current
• Historical
emissions caused
since the beginning
of industrialization
specifically by
developed
countries
• Indicator used: Per
capita cumulative
CO2 emissions
(1850-1989) Ton
CO2
26

27. Rank by Current responsibility
• Captures recent
trends (since
1990) in
emissions
• Per capita CO2
emissions (1990-
2011) Ton CO2e
• GHG emissions
(2011) Million
ton CO2e
• GHG intensity of
GDP (2011)
($/ton CO2e)
27

28. Adaptive capacity ranking
Indicators
• Water Security
• Food Security
• Health Risk
Resilience
• Urban Risk
Resilience
• Disaster Risk
Resilience
• Socio-
Economic
Capability
28

29. Ranking of risk
• Risk = Hazards *
Exposures *
Vulnerabilities [IPCC]
• Ricks categorized as
effects of Hydro-
Metero-Climatological
disasters
• HMC disasters- floods,
landslides, tropical
cyclones, typhoons etc.
• Data used at
Climatological scales-
over 30 years
29

30. Energy Access
Lighting
 It has been estimated that the annual
expenditure on kerosene for lighting by off-
grid and under-electrified households is
around USD 2.2 billion. Out of this, around
USD 1.8 billion is spent by rural households
Cooking
 Inefficient burning of biomass in traditional
cookstoves requiring higher quantities and
leading to pollution
 Indoor air pollution from burning of solid
fuels increases health risks
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
INDIA
ArunachalPradesh
Nagaland
Manipur
Mizoram
Tripura
Meghalaya
Assam
Sikkim
WestBengal
No lighting
Any other
Other oil
Solar
energy
Kerosene
Electricity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
INDIA
ArunachalPradesh
Nagaland
Manipur
Mizoram
Tripura
Meghalaya
Assam
Sikkim
WestBengal
No cooking
Any other
Biogas
Electricity
LPG
Kerosene
Coal, Lignite,Charcoal
Cowdung cake
Crop residue
Firewood
Source: Census 2011 30

31. Deteriorating Air Quality
Regional scale air quality in India -2011 and projections for
Reference Scenario 2031
PM2.5 (2031: Winter)PM2.5 (2011: Winter)
 By 2011/12 most cities in the country had already exceeded the ambient air quality standard
 In 2011/12, mortality from PM 2.5 was 5.73 lakhs
 In future, the air quality worsens increasing the mortality to 33.6 lakhs (2031/32)
Source: TERI’s Integrated MARKAL, WRF, CMAQ Models Results
31

32. India’s Energy Requirements in a Reference
Scenario
• Primary energy supply increases from 717 (2011/12) mtoe to 1950 mtoe (2031/32); coal followed by oil remain
the two dominant energy sources
• Final energy demand rises from 549 mtoe (2011/12) to 1460 mtoe (2031/32), an increase of about 2.7 times in
20 years
• Industry sector continues to remain the major energy consumer ( 40%- 48%), and the share of transport sector
rises from 16% (2011/12) to 25% ( 2031/32)
Primary Energy Requirement Final Energy Demand
Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results
32
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2011/12 2016/17 2021/22 2026/27 2031/32
Mtoe
Agriculture
Commercial
Residential
Transport
Industry
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2011/12 2016/17 2021/22 2026/27 2031/32
Mtoe
Traditional Biomass
Liquid Biofuel
Tidal
Geothermal
Waste to Energy
Biomass based Power
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal

33. Energy Security Driven
Scenarios
Scenarios Storyline
Energy Security Moderate
(ESM)
A determined effort is provided here for efficiency improvements
both on the supply and demand sides, an accelerated push for
diversifying the energy mix, increasing renewables, and
penetration of new technologies. Efforts are made to increase
domestic production.
Energy Security Ambitious
(ESA)
Energy security concerns, are paramount here. The main
objective being to drastically reduce the energy imports of the
country by 2031. This entails faster implementation of efficiency
measures, rapid penetration of new technologies, and increased
electrification of the economy. The role of renewables is crucial in
this scenario.
33

34. Primary Energy Growth
• The ESM reflects a
saving of 17% while
the ESA reflects a
saving of 26% in
2031/32 when
compared to the RES
levels
• The share of new
renewable energy
increases to 3% in
ESM and 7% in ESA
compared to 2% in
RES in 2031/32
• The share of fossil
fuels in the RES stands
at 83%, while in the
ESM it drops to 79%
and in the ESA to 74%
by 2031/32
Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results
34
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
RES ESM ESA RES ESM ESA RES ESM ESA
2011/12 2021/22 2031/32
Mtoe
Traditional Biomass
Liquid Biofuel
Tidal
Geothermal
Waste to Energy
Biomass based Power
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal

35. Imports
 Coal imports see a drop of over
700MT in the alternate
scenarios as compared to the
RES levels in 2031/32
 Oil imports drop by 140MT in
ESM and become less than half
of the RES levels in the ESA in
2031/32
 In the ESM, gas imports are
lower than the RES levels in
2031/32, however, in the ESA
gas imports see an increase of
around 60 BCM. This is because
Natural Gas is seen as a bridge
fuel in the move towards a less
import dependent, secure, and
cleaner economy.
2012/13 2031/32
RES ESM ESA
Coal ( MT) 135 1012 306 203
Gas (BCM) 13.7 76 56 136
Oil (MT) 147 481 341 222
Source: Coal Controller of India, 2012-13; Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, 2012-13, TERI’s
MARKAL Model Results
35

36. Electricity Sector: Projections
 Share of RE in the generation capacity mix rises from 9% (2011/12) to 23% in ESM and to 31%
in ESA as compared to 17% in RES (2031/32)
 Share of coal based generation capacity reduces from 52% (2011/12) to 50% in ESM, 32% in
ESA, as compared to an increase to 62% in RES (2031/32) Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results
36
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
RES ESM ESA
2031/32
GW
Tidal
Geothermal
Waste
Biomass
Solar thermal
Solar PV
Wind Offshore
Wind Onshore
Nuclear
Hydro
Diesel
Gas
Coal

37. …RE Power Sector Development
 Promoting solar power generation
 Development of solar parks on the lines of SEZs
 Strategic plan for developing competitive domestic industry
 National level policy and regulatory guidelines for roof top solar power plants
 Compensation to utilities
 Inclusion of energy storage to reduce loss due to non availability of grid
 Policy for new constructions to have roof top solar (especially for large buildings)
124
210
352
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
GW
Technical Potential Economic Potential Market Potential
Market potential for rooftop SPV is 124 GW based on current
build up area
Source- TERI study
All-India Rooftop SPV Potential
37

38. Industry Sector: Projections
 Energy demand in the sector rises from 221 mtoe ( 2011/12) to 697 mtoe (2031/32), with
around 60% share of coal in the RES
 The ESM reflects a saving of 12% (2031/32) and the ESA that of 17% (2031/32) in comparison to
the RES
 The ESA sees a drop in the usage of coal and petroleum fuels with gas being used as a bridge fuel
Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results 38
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
RES ESM ESA
2031/32
Mtoe
Biomass
Grid Electrcitiy
Petroleum Products
Natural Gas
Coal

39. Transport Sector: Projections
 The energy demand of the sector grows over four times from 86 mtoe (2011/12) to 360
mtoe (2031/32) in the RES, with a share of around 96% of petroleum products
 The ESM shows a saving of 21% in the ESM and 29% in the ESA by 2031/32
 While in the RES biofuels comprise of only 2% of the energy mix, in the ESA this rises to
15% ( 2031/32), thus reducing the use of petroleum products by almost half
Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results
39
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
RES ESM ESA
2031/32
Mtoe
Electricity
Bio fuels
CNG
Petroleum Fuel

40. Residential and Commercial Sector:
Projections
 Energy demand of the commercial sector grows at an annual rate of around 8%
 The energy demand ( including biomass) of the residential and commercial sector grows from
221 mtoe ( 2011/12) to 346 mtoe (2031/32)
 The ESM reflects a saving of 9%, while the ESA reflects a saving of 15% by 2031/32, with intense
electrification of the energy use
 Traditional biomass continues dominate the energy mix of the residential sector even in 2031/32
Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results
40
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
RES ESM ESA
2031/32
Mtoe
Traditional
Biomass
Electricity
Natural Gas
Petroleum Fuels

41. ..Future Actions: Kerosene to solar lantern
transition
 Of the 77 million off-grid
households in India, the
estimated dissemination of solar
products comes out be just 4 to 5
per cent
 In almost 2 years, it is possible to
have complete transition from
kerosene to solar energy for
lighting off grid households in India
41

42. Agriculture Sector: Projections
 The energy demand rises from 21 mtoe (2011) to 58 mtoe (2031) in the RES
 The ESM reflects an energy saving of 36%, and the ESA that of 51% in 2031
 In ESA we see a fall by ten times in the use of petroleum product in the sector as compared to the
RES (2031)
 Electrification of the sector in both ESM and ESA is coupled with penetration of energy efficiency
at varying rates
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
RES ESM ESA
2031/32
Mtoe
Electricity
Petroleum Products
Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results
42

43. Agriculture: Future Actions
43

44. Reduced Emissions and Emission Intensity
 In the RES, the CO2 emission levels rise from 1.7 billion tonnes ( 2011/12) to 5.5 billion tonne
(2031/32)
 In the ESM, the levels stand at 4.3 ( 2031/32) billion tonnes reflecting a per capita of 2.90 tonne
 In the ESA, the levels further fall to 3.5 (2031/32) billion tonne translating to 2.32 tonne per
capita
 The ESA also shows an emission intensity reduction of 33% by 2021/22, and 57% by 2031/32 in
comparison to the 2006/07 levels ( RES levels: 23% by 2021/22 and 32% by 2031/32)
44Source: TERI’s MARKAL Model Results
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2011/12 2016/17 2021/22 2026/27 2031/32
Billiontonne
RES
ESM
ESA
0.0100
0.0150
0.0200
0.0250
0.0300
0.0350
0.0400
2011/12 2016/17 2021/22 2026/27 2031/32Kg/INR
RES
ESM
ESA

45. Key Recommendations
45

46. Key take-aways
• Tapping of energy efficiency space across sectors essential
• Electrification of all sectors important
• Shift to renewables to the extent possible
• Clean and advanced coal and gas technologies for power

47. Way forward
• Policy led market creation
• Energy pricing reforms [Rationalize prices to provide correct
signals & ensure affordable & clean energy]
• Readiness for Absorption of Energy Saving Technologies
• Adaptation & Innovation in Indian context
• Policy space needs to provide clarity to investors
• Fundamental need to plan for sustainable cities
• R&D

48. Key Recommendations
 Need long-term, integrated energy policy with clarity on
directional pathways for energy development
 Strengthen the regulatory framework to:
 Function independently and in long-term interests
 Develop pricing frameworks that meet energy security
objectives
 Encourage efficiency/demand management
 Set up a Committee to review options for phasing out obsolete,
inefficient infrastructure AND for preparing shape of future
energy infrastructure

49. Key Recommendations
 Recognise the synergistic interdependence between energy
sector development and other sectors
Urban
Health
Water
Food
 Importantly, recognise the job creation opportunities of
decentralised, distributed energy generation, particularly in
support of energy access and the SME sector

50. Key Recommendations
 Immediate re-design of energy and related subsidies to
promote efficiency and right-choice for consumers
 Manifold increase in R&D at technical and policy levels to
support desired transitions

51. In Sum!
51
“Speed in irrelevant if you are
going in the wrong direction.”
- Mahatma
Gandhi

52. Thank you for your
attention….