1. Facing Your SEO
Fears: Forecasting
Hannah Rogers
Journey Further

2. 2
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Forecasting has
me feeling like

3. ©2022 Journey
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3
What should
forecasting be?
#BrightonSEO

4. ©2022 Journey
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01
Ambitious
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4

5. ©2022 Journey
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02
Accurate
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5

6. ©2022 Journey
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03
Accountable
#BrightonSEO
6

7. ©2022 Journey
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➔Confidence
➔Diagnostic uses
➔Accuracy & ambition
What is
accountability
significant?
7
1
2
#BrightonSEO

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An example of how
to run an
accountable
forecast
#BrightonSEO

9. ©2022 Journey
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01
02
03
04
9
Rankings
forecast
Traffic
forecast
Run rate
forecast
9
Revenue
forecast
#BrightonSEO

10. ©2022 Journey
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logos, assets
messaging are
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Journey Further Ltd
01
Run rate forecast
#BrightonSEO
10

11. ©2022 Journey
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11
➔13 months of traffic,
conversion & AOV data
➔13 months of search
volume by keyword
Prerequisites
11
1
2
#BrightonSEO

12. ©2022 Journey
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01.1
Establish last full
month’s data
➔Sessions >
Conversion rate >
AOV
#BrightonSEO
12

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01.2
Understand
expected changes
➔Find MoM changes
from previous
year’s data
#BrightonSEO
13

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01.3
Apply
seasonality
➔Multiply last full
month’s data by
MoM changes
#BrightonSEO
14

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15
Result
15
1
2
#BrightonSEO
2022 GA DATA + BASE FORECAST (CURRENT RUN RATE)
Year Month
2023 Sessions
(base) YoY CVR Revenue YoY AOV
2023 February 137384 -30% 1.81% £204,878.62 -44.81% £82.57
2023 March 145111 -37% 1.85% £216,255.78 -50.09% £80.41
2023 April 122195 -41% 1.45% £144,994.29 -53.57% £81.77
2023 May 152224 -32% 1.41% £182,344.41 -46.34% £84.68
2023 June 150520 -27% 1.67% £207,594.07 -41.95% £82.35
2023 July 173562 -10% 1.63% £234,428.69 -28.37% £83.09
2023 August 212874 -1% 1.27% £234,542.54 -21.45% £86.78
2023 September 190178 -14% 1.28% £206,233.01 -31.73% £84.90
2023 October 222807 -7% 1.38% £243,775.90 -26.23% £79.23
2023 November 300647 0% 2.33% £611,329.57 -20.71% £87.36
2023 December 345311 -3% 3.44% £1,011,495.38 -23.23% £85.26
2024 January 272653 13% 1.11% £259,246.65 -9.99% £85.87

16. ©2022 Journey
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02
Rankings forecast
#BrightonSEO
16

17. ©2022 Journey
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17
➔Comprehensive
keyword list
➔Understanding of SEO
opportunity for client
➔Multiplying factor based
on client & market
experience
Prerequisites
17
1
2
#BrightonSEO

18. ©2022 Journey
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02.1
Establish current
ranking for all
keywords
#BrightonSEO
18

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02.2
Establish
opportunity
available for the
site
#BrightonSEO
19

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20
➔What is there to be
done?
➔How much resource is
available?
➔What blockers are
there?
Establishing
opportunity
20
1
2
#BrightonSEO

21. ©2022 Journey
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02.3
Apply multiplying
factor to current
rankings over 12
months
#BrightonSEO
21

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22
Result
22
1
2
#BrightonSEO
Rank March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec January February
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
113 113 103 94 86 79 73 67 63 58 55 51 48
13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10
114 114 104 95 88 81 75 70 65 61 57 54 50
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
116 116 106 97 89 83 76 71 66 62 58 54 51
80 80 74 68 64 59 55 52 48 45 43 40 38
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
115 115 103 92 83 75 68 62 57 53 48 45 41
83 83 75 68 63 58 53 49 45 42 39 36 34
118 118 106 95 85 77 70 64 58 54 50 46 42
114 114 104 94 86 79 74 68 63 59 55 52 48
83 83 77 71 66 62 58 55 51 48 46 43 41
59 59 55 52 49 46 44 41 39 37 36 34 33
117 117 106 97 89 82 75 69 65 60 56 52 49
117 117 107 98 90 83 77 71 66 62 58 55 51

23. ©2022 Journey
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03
Traffic forecast
#BrightonSEO
23

24. ©2022 Journey
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24
➔Rankings forecast
➔12 months of monthly
search volume
➔Click through rate data
for SERP positions
➔Run rate forecast
Prerequisites
24
1
2
#BrightonSEO

25. ©2022 Journey
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03.1
Establish
expected traffic
based on current
rankings
#BrightonSEO
25

26. ©2022 Journey
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26
➔Multiply monthly search
volume by CTR of
current ranking position
Expected traffic
26
1
2
#BrightonSEO

27. ©2022 Journey
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logos, assets
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03.2
Establish
expected traffic
based on
forecasted
rankings
#BrightonSEO
27

28. ©2022 Journey
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28
➔Multiply monthly search
volume by CTR of
forecasted ranking
position
Forecasted traffic
28
1
2
#BrightonSEO

29. ©2022 Journey
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03.3
Establish
percentage
difference between
expected &
forecasted traffic
#BrightonSEO
29

30. ©2022 Journey
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03.4
Apply percentage
difference to run
rate forecast
#BrightonSEO
30

31. ©2022 Journey
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31
Result
31
1
2
#BrightonSEO
Year Month Incremental sessions
2023 Sessions (+
uplift)
2023 February 0 137384
2023 March 0 145111
2023 April 3197 125392
2023 May 17453 169677
2023 June 20996 171516
2023 July 32208 205770
2023 August 48180 261054
2023 September 42299 232477
2023 October 51616 274423
2023 November 74696 375343
2023 December 90894 436205
2024 January 81213 353866

32. ©2022 Journey
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04
Revenue forecast
#BrightonSEO
32

33. ©2022 Journey
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33
➔Traffic forecast
➔Run rate forecast (AOV
and CVR)
Prerequisites
33
1
2
#BrightonSEO

34. ©2022 Journey
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04.1
Use run rate
conversion rates to
estimate sales
#BrightonSEO
34

35. ©2022 Journey
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04.2
Apply average order
values
#BrightonSEO
35

36. ©2022 Journey
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36
Result
36
1
2
#BrightonSEO
BASE FORECAST + SEO UPLIFT
Year Month
Incremental
sessions
2023
Sessions (+
uplift) % YoY Orders % YoY CVR Revenue YoY AOV
2023 February 0 137384 -30% 2481 -45% 1.81% £204,878.62 -44.81% £82.57
2023 March 0 145111 -37% 2689 -50% 1.85% £216,255.78 -50.09% £80.41
2023 April 3197 125392 -40% 1820 -52% 1.45% £148,788.30 -52.35% £81.77
2023 May 17453 169677 -25% 2400 -40% 1.41% £203,251.04 -40.19% £84.68
2023 June 20996 171516 -17% 2873 -34% 1.67% £236,551.40 -33.86% £82.35
2023 July 32208 205770 7% 3345 -15% 1.63% £277,931.90 -15.08% £83.09
2023 August 48180 261054 21% 3314 -4% 1.27% £287,626.77 -3.68% £86.78
2023 September 42299 232477 5% 2969 -17% 1.28% £252,103.46 -16.54% £84.90
2023 October 51616 274423 15% 3790 -9% 1.38% £300,250.19 -9.14% £79.23
2023 November 74696 375343 25% 8736 -1% 2.33% £763,215.40 -1.01% £87.36
2023 December 90894 436205 22% 14986 -3% 3.44% £1,277,744.03 -3.03% £85.26
2024 January 81213 353866 47% 3918 17% 1.11% £336,466.35 16.82% £85.87

37. ©2022 Journey
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37
Using your forecast
for diagnostics
#BrightonSEO

38. ©2023 Journey
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Diagnosing Revenue
Misses
38
AO
V
CVR
Traffic
Rankings
Volume
Brand

39. Thank
you
39
39
#BrightonSEO