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ABCs defense of capital TaxCharityTM-22oct2013
- 1. “
ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax Charity–22 September 2013
"there is risk in what you do not or cannot know." Thomas Tooke, 1844
"for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803
Risk Price analysis of balance sheets allows us to discern a most useful partition from all the
equities in any market. These we call “likeables” because investors have consistently shown they
prefer them and price them up. Investors like them and there is much to like. As a group 2 of 3 of
these “likeables” equities we select tend to gain in stock price for long periods. We understand why
as shown in open display, because we can. No one else can, so they do not. We can and do.
As open handed display of our methods in January 2012 we released the ABC’s portfolio comprised
of just the of newly identified equities on TSX and NYSE we call “likeables” we partition. They are
revealed by their rise above Risk Price, our metric that investors must know to defend their capital.
Those ABCs made the case even as these two markets diverged. There were 16 equities in the TSX
sample for an aggregate $41.972 invested and 12 in the NYSE sample portfolio for an aggregate
$77,436 invested at outset. Through the year 5 were dropped due to negative change in their Risk
Price metrics, as it turns out in both, finishing last year with the TSX sample up 122.64% and the
NYSE sample up 138.97%. These were substantively different markets.
The TSX had declined early in the year 2012 and then regained ending up 6.02% and the NYSE
had started hot and then cooled to obtain a 8.35% gain in the year. Roughly a four-fold gain was
made in both portfolios over their markets. The hedge fund industry recorded only 6.16% on the
NYSE prior to their taking fees as supposed earned despite their conventioned performance is poor.
Our two ABCs sample portfolios have continued through 2013. TSX first declining then gaining
since the end of July on the TSX, ABCs gain isnow total 40.22%. The sample NYSE - ABCs
portfolio has gained to total 44.75 % in 2013. Idle cash value is eroded by inflation. Equities that
tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash. That is simple fact. We like Capital Safety
and Liquidity as we have consistently shown and proven that works for high capital appreciation.
http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/
The TaxCharityTM portfolios we posted this past January 2013 took-up the challenge for the small
investor to reinvest their cash under the limits of annual Tax shelter provisions. You will have done
well. Our BookBuilderTM builds your wealth for your childrens’ education, or small savings.
Last month we issued proposal for new 2013 TaxCharityTM portfolios to make use of new tax
sheltered savings. As we seek sophisticated investors to extend our achievement with new theory of
the firm we can charitably offer some of our “Perpetual Bond” list of “likeables” proprietary
information to help small investors. We can do as no one else because we can.
We show and prove our risk averse “likeables” portfolios obtain long term gains. No one else can,
as they have only poor models built on untestable conjectures claimed as theory. The conventional
investment industry assumes “expertise” that just culls small investors’ wallets for their own. All
the fun fees and profit is theirs. http://riskwerk.com/2013/09/15/earnings-dont-matter-2/
Page 1 of 5
October 2013 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
- 2. “
ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax Charity–22 September 2013
ABCs for TSX Firms
ARC Resources
Anvil Mining (Sold on Takeover 21Feb12)
Brookfield Asset Management
Bombardier (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12)
BCE Inc (Sold on N* decline 12jun13)
Cogeco Cable
CCL Industries
Canfor Corp
Centerra Gold (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12)
Cenovus Energy (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12)
Canadian Western Bank (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12)
Dollarama Inc
Emera Inc (Sold on N* decline 22oct12)
Enbridge Inc
Fortis Inc (Sold on N* decline 30un13)
Finning International (Sold on N* decline 30jun13)
Buy-ins 01Jan13
Gildan Activewear Inc.
Linamar Corporation
Sun Life Financial Inc.
Market
Price
Symbol
Stop/Loss
SF
(Risk Price)
$25
$25
$30
$5
$33
$39
$32
$10
$17
$34
$28
$45
$32
$41
$32
$24
$36
$4
$40
$45
$63
$19
$4
$30
$27
$70
$31
$43
$33
$21
49.33 GIL
35.62 LNR
34.76 SLF
$35
$19
$26
$41
$28
$29
36.08 GIB.A
$23
$29
32.00 CFW
32.8 MTY
$30
$21
$29
$27
Gain 21.75
months
43.72%
$9
$10
$9
$10
Gain 21.75
months
43.72%
27.57
8.01
41.43
4.75
47.19
48.9
73.00
22.46
17.38
35.95
29.24
83.10
30.9
43.26
ARX.TO
BAM-A.TO
BBD-B.TO
BCE.TO
CCA.TO
CCL-A.TO
CFP.TO
CG.TO
CVE.TO
CWB.TO
DOL.TO
EMA.TO
ENB.TO
32.19 FTS.TO
21.65 FTT.TO
Buy-ins 15Jun2013
CGI Group
Buy-ins 31Jul2013
Calfrac Well Services Ltd.
MTY Food Group Inc
Portfolio Value 22 October 2013 (including dividends)
Current Net Cash * 100 Shares
Net Cash (on 100 shares EMA sale 22Oct13)
Buy-ins 31Jul2013
CML HealthCare Inc.
Celestica Inc.
Net Cash * after 100 Shares Buy-ins (CLC CLS)
Portfolio Value 22 October 2013 (including dividends)
Current Cash * after 100 Shares Buy-ins (CLC CLS)
Page 2 of 5
60324.00 / 41972.00
524.00
3090.00
10.75 CLC
10.78 CLS
1461.00
60324.00 / 41972.00
1461.00
October 2013 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
- 3. “
ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax Charity–22 September 2013
(Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)
CAE Inc.
Hudsons Bay Company
Leon's Furniture Limited
Northland Power Inc.
Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp.
Transcontinental Inc.
11.29
18.99
13.05
16.88
22.68
15.75
Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon.
The essential feature of “likeables” is that 2 of 3 tend to gain. What is essential in your portfolios is
that you buy a full complement of at least eight or preferably more equities at any time (preferably
in equal blocks of 100 shares for 'collaring options' as exit strategy to maximize gains, most often
continuing to hold through volatility, earning more gains). StopLoss weeds the laggards as needed.
Tendency for gain is not the same as pin-the-point on the mule as most encourage or seek. Those
motley brayers are legend with survivor bias, even when 2 of their 3 crash they will talk only with
whimsy of the one. Their mothers’ “Speak when you have something positive to say” is ignored.
Let others chase the gamblers’ risk/reward model. Good reason knows that rarely works. But you
can be charitable and buy a lottery ticket that donates support to community sports and arts, like
buying a raffle ticket at the Strawberry Social. Our charity shares our proprietary information to
small investors. Consider passing-on our charity by designating our normal fee portion to social
charity.
ABCs for NYSE Firms
Alaska Air Group
American Express Co
Brookfield Asset Management
Colgate-Palmolive
CSX Corp
Walt Disney Co
GATX Corporation ($topLoss sold 10Jul13)
General Electric Company
Alexander & Baldwin (Sold on N* negative 31jul12)
Caterpillar (Sold on N* negative 30nov12)
ConocoPhilips (Sold on N* negative 30nov12)
Cummins (Sold on N* negative 30nov12)
Chevron (Sold on N* negative 30nov12)
Buy-ins 01Jan13
Gamestop Corp CL A
Page 3 of 5
Market
Price
66.55
80.87
40.33
126.94
26.09
69.00
46
26.02
58.50
96.00
71.63
108.27
109.00
Symbol
Stop/Loss
SF
(Risk Price)
ALK*48
AXP*48
BAM*26
CL*80
CSX*20
DIS*37
GMT*33
GE*17
ALEX
CAT
COP
CMI
CVX
26.02 GME:US
October 2013 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
$32
$52
$30
$49
$21
$44
$35
$20
$40
$90
$42
$102
$109
$56
$70
$35
$58
$24
$60
$44
$23
$31
$79
$66
$122
$117
$26
$42
- 4. “
ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax Charity–22 September 2013
Hasbro Inc
HSBC Holdings PLC ADS
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc
Huntington Bancshares Inc
Intercontinental Exchange Inc
Interpublic Group of Cos
KLA-Tencor Corporation ($topLoss sold 27aug13)
MBIA Inc
Principal Financial Group Inc
Tyson Foods Inc CL A
54.76
49.99
8.9
56.02
18.55
197.47
56
10.84
46.6
28.89
HAS
HBC:US
HST:US
HBAN:US
ICE:US
IPG:US
KLAC:US
MBI:US
PFG:US
TSN:US
$39
$6
$47
$14
$131
$9
$45
$8
$27
$18
$44
$8
$52
$17
$163
$15
$56
$8
$39
$24
14.92
27.47
16.75
21.57
OMX:US
P:US
RRD:US
UBS:US
$10
$15
$15
$15
$11
$20
$13
$18
$32
$27
$21
$32
$28
$20
Buy-ins 31Jul2013
OfficeMax Incorporated
Pandora Media Incorporated
Donnelley RR & Sons Company
UBS AG
Buy-ins 31Aug2013
Best Buy Co. Inc
Hartford Financial Services
Jabil Circuit Inc
Portfolio Value 15 September 2013 (including dividends)
Current Cash (from 31Jul buy)
43.08 BBY:US
33.71 HIG:US
22.58 JBL:US
112067.00
/ 77436.00
Gain 21.75
months
27.67 CIEN:US
10.85 FHN:US
14.06 GNW:US
$19
$9
$12
44.75%
190.00
(Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)
Ciena Corp
First Horizon National Corp
Genworth Financial Inc
$20
$11
$11
Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon.
The conventional investment industry cannot prove any of their assumptions underlying their
methods. As we have shown, luck is all that they trade in, 1.03 to 1 is just a coin-toss, not adding
value. A tautology is just repetition until it appears to be logical. Lies told often enough are
expedient and can even become politically correct.
In our Modal Geometry "theory of the firm" we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows:
1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly
weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared
to be responsible for); and,
2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, “what it owns” (in order to stay in business “what is
owed to it” with “what it owes” and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its
trading connections).
Page 4 of 5
October 2013 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
- 5. “
ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax Charity–22 September 2013
The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded more by rigourous observation in the real
world of corporate ledgers relation to balance sheets. That is aided with logic, epistemology, and
some powerful mathematics, not just conventional assumptions with little or no science.
Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. “likeables” are
equities shown valued by investors, tending to continuing gain, which investors have demonstrated
a determination to buy and hold at stock prices above the price of risk. That tendency demonstrates
2 of 3 “likeables” gaining for the long term, as we continue to show.
Proof is positive, as our TaxCharity shows. We do that for the small investor, because we can. No
one else can.
Know What You Have. Have What You Know.
Our view is risk averse. Of course we require 2&20 fees for doing that. Mail us for our help.
Hans Goetze,
Architypes Inc. architypes@gmail.com and StockTakers Limited hg.stocktaker@gmail.com
Head Office
76 Midridge Close SE
Calgary, AB
T2X 1G1
Page 5 of 5
351 Chemin Boulanger
Sutton, PQ
J0E 2K0
450 538-1270
October 2013 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.