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ABCs TaxCharityTM-22dec2013
1. โ
ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTMโ22 December 2013
"there is risk in what you do not or cannot know." Thomas Tooke, 1844
"for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803
Risk Price analysis of balance sheets allows us to discern a most useful partition from all the
equities in any market. These are โlikeablesโ because investors have consistently shown they prefer
them and price them up. So there is much to like. As a group 2 of 3 of these โlikeablesโ equities we
identify tend to gain in stock price for long periods. We understand why by proven theory1. Also, as
is in open display, because we can. No one else can, so they do not. Because we can, we do.
As open handed display of our methods in January 2012 we released the ABCโs portfolio comprised
of just the of newly identified equities on TSX and NYSE โlikeablesโ we partition. They are
revealed by their rise above Risk Price, our metric that investors must know to defend their capital.
Those ABCs made the case even as these two markets diverged. There were 16 equities in the TSX
sample for an aggregate $41.972 invested and 12 in the NYSE sample portfolio for an aggregate
$77,436 invested at outset. Through the year 5 were dropped due to negative change in their Risk
Price metrics, as it turns out in both, finishing last year with the TSX sample up 122.64% and the
NYSE sample up 138.97%. These substantively different markets moved in different directions.
The TSX had declined early in the year 2012 and then regained ending up 6.02% and the NYSE
had started hot and then cooled to obtain a 8.35% gain in the year. Roughly a four-fold gain was
made in both portfolios over their markets. The hedge fund industry recorded only 6.16% on the
NYSE prior to their taking fees as supposed earned despite their conventional poor performance.
Our two ABCs sample portfolios we have continued through 2013. TSX first declined then gained
since the end of July. The TSX- ABCs 2 year gain is now total 56.21%, in 2013 adding 10.68%.
The sample NYSE - ABCs portfolio 2 year gain totals 50.51%, in 2013 adding 31.51%. Idle cash
value is eroded by inflation. Equities that tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash. We
like Capital Safety and Liquidity as has consistently shown and proven works for high capital
appreciation, less risk more gain. Sounds strange truth to power2 there is no intelligent science in
conventional fund portfolio methods.
The TaxCharityTM portfolios we posted January 2013 took-up the challenge for the small investor
to invest new cash under the limits of annual Tax shelter provisions. Followers have done well. Our
BookBuilderTM builds your wealth for your childrensโ education, or your small savings.
In August we issued new 2013 TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios to make use of new tax
sheltered savings. As we seek sophisticated investors to extend our achievement in new theory of
the firm we can charitably offer some of our โPerpetual Bondโ list of โlikeablesโ proprietary
information to help small investors. Because we can we do. โLikeablesโ portfolios perform.
Conventional investment industry assumes โexpertiseโ but have only poor models built on
untestable conjectures claimed as theory. That just culls small investorsโ wallets to that unproven
use. All the fun fees and profit is theirs, but next to nothing for you3 are ever left, just their tease.
Page 1 of 6
November 2013 ยฉ Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on โlikeablesโ equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
2. โ
ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTMโ22 December 2013
ABCs for TSX Firms portfolio from 31 December
2011
Market
Price
Symbol
Stop/Loss
SF
(Risk Price)
ARC Resources
Anvil Mining (Sold on Takeover 21Feb12)
Brookfield Asset Management
Bombardier (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12)
BCE Inc (Sold on N* decline 12jun13)
Cogeco Cable
CCL Industries
Canfor Corp
Centerra Gold (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12)
Cenovus Energy (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12)
Canadian Western Bank (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12)
Dollarama Inc
Emera Inc (Sold on N* decline 22oct12)
Enbridge Inc (Sold on $topLoss 04dec13)
Fortis Inc (Sold on N* decline 30un13)
Finning International (Sold on N* decline 30jun13)
Buy-ins 01Jan13
Gildan Activewear Inc.
Linamar Corporation
Sun Life Financial Inc.
Buy-ins 15Jun2013
CGI Group
Buy-ins 31Jul2013
Calfrac Well Services Ltd.
MTY Food Group Inc
Buy-ins 22Oct2013
Hudsons Bay Company.
Celestica Inc.
29.45 ARX.TO
AVM.TO
40.23 BAM-A.TO
BBD-B.TO
BCE.TO
46.91 CCA.TO
79.91 CCL-A.TO
26.52 CFP.TO
CG.TO
CVE.TO
CWB.TO
87.78 DOL.TO
EMA.TO
43.00 ENB.TO
FTS.TO
FTT.TO
$28
$28
$33
$5
$36
$39
$37
$13
$17
$35
$30
$55
$32
$47
$32
$24
$39
$4
$45
$44
$70
$20
$1
$30
$33
$80
$28
$41
$33
$21
55.83 GIL
42.32 LNR
36.99 SLF
$40
$19
$28
$45
$36
$34
37.57 GIB.A
$33
$36
31.05 CFW
33.52 MTY
$30
$21
$29
$28
18.79 HBC
10.63 CLS
$16
$9
$18
$9
Portfolio Value 22 October 2013 (including dividends)
65564.00 / 41972.00
Gain 23.75
months
56.21%
$45
$46
Prior Net Cash * after 100 Shares 22oct Buy-ins
Net on StopLoss ENB.TO
Current Net Cash * before 100 Shares 22dec Buy-ins
Buy-ins *100 shares 22Dec2013
Laurentian Bank of Canada
Net Cash * after 100 Shares 22dec Buy-ins
Page 2 of 6
647.00
4300.00
4947.00
47.03 LB
244.00
November 2013 ยฉ Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on โlikeablesโ equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
3. โ
ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTMโ22 December 2013
Portfolio Value 22 December 2013 (including
65564.00 / 41972.00
dividends) / 31 December 2011
Gain 23.75
months
56.21%
$9
$40
$12
$28
$13
$11
$39
$12
$30
$14
(Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)
CAE Inc.
Crescent Point Energy Corp.
Leon's Furniture Limited
Power Corporation of Canada
Resolute Forest Products Inc
13.64
41.37
13.65
31.97
16.27
CAE
CPG
LNF
POW
RFP
12.35
4.19
15.67
29.45
26.47
4.62
26.32
64.75
31.05
90.46
41.37
35.52
61.81
ADN
ANS
ARE
ARX
BA
BBD.B
BIN
BNS
CFW
CM
CPG
CU
VET
AB-Z 2014 TSX Portfolio * after 100 Shares
Buy-ins 22 December 2013
Buy-ins * per 100 Shares 22 December 2013
Acadian Timber Corporation
Ainsworth Lumber Company Limited
Aecon Group Inc.
ARC Resources Ltd.
Bell Aliant Inc.
Bombardier Inc.
Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd.
Bank of Nova Scotia (The)
Calfrac Well Services Ltd.
Canadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce
Crescent Point Energy Corp.
Canadian Utilities Limited
Vermilion Energy Inc.
AB-Z 2014 TSX Portfolio * after 100 Shares 22
44403.00 / 44403.00
December 2013
$10
$3
$13
$28
$25
$5
$26
$59
$30
$72
$40
$34
$53
Gain 0.0
months
$11
$3
$14
$28
$26
$4
$25
$63
$29
$86
$39
$34
$57
0.00%
Engage in โlikeablesโ save your own bacon.
The proven behaviour of โlikeablesโ is that 2 of 3 tend to long term gain. What is essential is that
you buy a complement of at least eight or preferably more equities at any time (preferably in equal
blocks of 100 shares for 'collaring options' as exit strategy to maximize gains, most often
continuing to hold through volatility, earning more gains). StopLoss weeds the laggards as needed.
Tendency for gain is not the same as pin-the-point on the mule as most encourage or seek. Those
motley brayers are legend with survivor bias, they talk only with whimsy of the one winner. Let
others chase gamblersโ risk/reward model that rarely works, as their house wins.
You can be charitable and buy a lottery ticket donating support to community sports and arts, like a
raffle ticket at the Strawberry Social. Our charity shares our proprietary information to small
investors. Consider passing-on our charity by designating our normal fee portion to social charity.
Page 3 of 6
November 2013 ยฉ Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on โlikeablesโ equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
4. โ
ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTMโ22 December 2013
ABCs for NYSE Firms
Alaska Air Group
American Express Co
Brookfield Asset Management
Colgate-Palmolive (stock split 2 for 16may2013)
CSX Corp
Walt Disney Co
GATX Corporation ($topLoss sold 10Jul13)
General Electric Company
Alexander & Baldwin (Sold on N* negative 31jul12)
Caterpillar (Sold on N* negative 30nov12)
ConocoPhilips (Sold on N* negative 30nov12)
Cummins (Sold on N* negative 30nov12)
Chevron (Sold on N* negative 30nov12)
Buy-ins 01Jan13
Gamestop Corp CL A
Hasbro Inc
HSBC Holdings PLC ADS
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc
Huntington Bancshares Inc
Intercontinental Exchange Inc
Interpublic Group of Cos
KLA-Tencor Corporation ($topLoss sold 27aug13)
MBIA Inc (Sold on $topLoss 13dec12)
Principal Financial Group Inc
Tyson Foods Inc CL A
Market
Price
Symbol
Stop/Loss
SF
(Risk Price)
ALK*48
AXP*48
BAM*26
CL*80
CSX*20
DIS*37
GMT*33
27.08 GE*17
$32
$52
$30
$49
$21
$44
$35
$20
$40
$90
$42
$102
$109
$56
$70
$35
$58
$24
$60
$44
$23
$31
$79
$66
$122
$117
GME:US
HAS
HBC:US
HST:US
HBAN:US
ICE:US
IPG:US
KLAC:US
11.00 MBI:US
50.16 PFG:US
31.82 TSN:US
$26
$39
$6
$47
$14
$131
$9
$45
$8
$27
$18
$42
$44
$8
$52
$17
$163
$15
$56
$8
$39
$24
OMX:US
29.23 P:US
17.31 RRD:US
UBS:US
$10
$15
$15
$15
$11
$20
$13
$18
39.66 BBY:US
36.07 HIG:US
16.12 JBL:US
$32
$27
$21
$32
$28
$20
33.02 HSH:US
$30
$29
77.15
83.85
39.49
132.52
27.35
70.20
ALEX
CAT
COP
CMI
CVX
49.86
52.88
9.14
56.03
18.58
217.41
17.34
Buy-ins 31Jul2013
OfficeMax Incorporated (Takenover by ODP 01nov13)
Pandora Media Incorporated
Donnelley RR & Sons Company
UBS AG ($topLoss sold 05nov13)
Buy-ins 31Aug2013
Best Buy Co. Inc
Hartford Financial Services
Jabil Circuit Inc
Buy-ins 22Nov2013 * 100 shares
Hillshire Brands Company
Portfolio Value 22 December 2013 (including dividends)
114763.00 / 77436.00
/ 31 December 2011
Page 4 of 6
November 2013 ยฉ Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on โlikeablesโ equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
Gain 23.75
months
50.51%
5. โ
ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTMโ22 December 2013
Prior Cash Forward (after Buy-in 22nov)
Net Cash (on StopLoss sales *100 shares (MBI)
Current Cash
Buy-ins *100 shares 22Dec2013
112.00
1100.00
1212.00
Xerox Corp
11.88 XRX:US
Net Cash after *100 shares Buy-in 22dec(XRX)
24.00
Portfolio Value 22 December 2013 (including dividends)
114763.00 / 77436.00
/ 31 December 2011
$9
Gain 23.75
months
$10
50.51%
(Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)
Ciena Corp
Deltic Timber Corporation
First Horizon National Corp
Genworth Financial Inc
DENTSPLY International Inc
Yelp Incorporated
21.49
66.9
11.5
15.28
48.43
68.01
CIEN:US
DEL:US
FHN:US
GNW:US
XRAY
YELP:US
$19
$58
$9
$12
$17
$58
$10
$12
$45
$58
$45
$49
A:US
AGCO Corp
AMCX:US
AMGN:US
ARG:US
BEAM:US
BIDU:US
BIIB:US
CCI:US
CERN:US
CHRW
COF:US
CTSH:US
ZION:US
$44
$48
$49
$52
$60
$77
$57
$103
$83
$55
$128
$101
$63
$44
$51
$61
$78
$22
$102
$64
$137
$215
$70
$48
$55
$64
$85
$26
AB-Z 2014 NYSE Portfolio 22 December 2013
Agilent Technologies Inc
AGCO Corp
AMC Networks Incorporated
Amgen Inc.
Airgas Incorporated
Beam Incorporated
Baidu Inc. ADS
Biogen Idec Inc
Crown Castle International Corporation
Cerner Corp.
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc
Capital One Financial Corp
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp.
Zions Bancorporation
AB-Z 2014 NYSE Portfolio
*100 shares Buy-in
56.96
57.62
64.57
114.03
109.9
67.34
173.36
283.34
71.98
54.67
56.54
74.73
98.16
29.22
131242.00
/ 131242.00
22 December 2013
Gain 0.0
months
0.00%
Engage in โlikeablesโ save your own bacon.
The conventional investment industry cannot prove any of their assumptions underlying their
methods. As we have shown, luck is all that they trade in, 1.03 to 1 is just a coin-toss, not adding
Page 5 of 6
November 2013 ยฉ Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on โlikeablesโ equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
6. โ
ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTMโ22 December 2013
value. A tautology is just repetition until it appears to be logical. Lies told often enough are
expedient and can even become politically correct.
In our Modal Geometry theory of the firm we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows:
1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly
weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared
to be responsible for); and,
2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, โwhat it ownsโ (in order to stay in business โwhat is
owed to itโ with โwhat it owesโ and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its
trading connections).
The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded more by rigourous observation in the real
world of corporate ledgers relation to balance sheets. That is aided with logic, epistemology, and
some powerful mathematics, not conventional assumptions with little relevance or real science.
Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. โlikeablesโ are
equities shown valued by investors, tending to continuing gain, which investors have demonstrated
a determination to buy and hold at stock prices above the price of risk. That tendency demonstrates
2 of 3 โlikeablesโ gaining for the long term, as we continue to show.
Proof is positive, as shows in our TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios. We extend our
proprietary information to small investors. The ABCs and new AB-Zs suit larger wallets. Because
we can, while the entire financial industry is so busy blowing bubbles4 with cash from your wallet.
Know What You Have. Have What You Know.
Our view is risk averse. Of course we require 2&20 fees for doing that. Mail us for our help.
Hans Goetze,
Architypes Inc. architypes@gmail.com and StockTakers Limited hg.stocktaker@gmail.com
Head Office
76 Midridge Close SE
Calgary, AB
T2X 1G1
1
351 Chemin Boulanger
Sutton, PQ
J0E 2K0
450 538-1270
E. Goetze, The Modal Geometry of the Firm and Worth of the Trading Connections, 2009
2
http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/
3
http://riskwerk.com/2013/09/15/earnings-dont-matter-2/
4
http://riskwerk.com/2013/10/14/asset-bubbles-day-october-14-2013/
Page 6 of 6
November 2013 ยฉ Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on โlikeablesโ equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.