Deciphering Consumer Trends and Their Impact on the Outdoor Industry

Deciphering Consumer Trends
Deciphering Consumer Trends
And Their Impact on the Outdoor Industry

Marian Salzman
Outdoor Industry Association
August 4, 2011

@ erwwpr

Marian Salzman Trendspotting

Why Trends?
Why do we look at trends when
creating actionable and insightful
strategies for big brands?

@ erwwpr


Why Trends?
•To identify the driving forces behind today and the
future and plan for long-term success.

@ erwwpr


Why Trends?
•To

identify the driving forces behind today and the future
and plan for long-term success.

•To discover unexpected opportunities that can help
transform brands and businesses.

@ erwwpr


Why Trends?
•To

identify the driving forces behind today and the future
and plan for long-term success.

•To

discover unexpected opportunities that can help
transform brands and businesses.

•To manage into change by giving insight into the
drivers of key business, consumer and social trends.

@ erwwpr


Learning to

Spot Trends

social
momentum

It means tracking

people

companies
radical
breakthroughs

economies

brands
@ erwwpr


Spotting trends
is big business for people
in many industries who need
to be thinking ahead, for
themselves and their clients.

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And, really, isn’t that

everyone today?

@ erwwpr


11.5 Macro Trends for 2020
(and How They Mean Business
for Outdoor-Involved Businesses)

@ erwwpr


1

Mother Earth
.Needs Valium;
We Need Reassurance
@ erwwpr


Outdoor activity is perceived as dangerous by
some (i.e. Moms) who see #OIBIZ marketing
featuring “extremes” @LarryPluimer

@ erwwpr


1. Mother Earth Needs
Valium; We Need Reassurance
• With

financial and employment catastrophes a constant
worry at home, the great outdoors offers the prospect of
relief—or does it?

• Thoreau’s

idyllic American outdoor vision now seems like a
naïve fantasy.

• Katrina

screamed “massive headache,” and we’ve been
watching Mother Earth raging round the world ever since
(Haiti, Japan, etc.).

• What’s

next? The San Andreas tipping budget-stricken
California over the edge? The Yellowstone Supervolcano
blowing the finale to end all finales?

@ erwwpr


1. Mother Earth Needs
Valium; We Need Reassurance
• The

more time people spend indoors, the riskier the outdoors
seems—all those natural hazards, not to mention the
prospect of 127 hours in a crevice.

• Forget big disasters; there’s poison ivy, grizzlies, snakes, killer bees,
bison, Lyme disease—plus careless drivers, clueless hunters, etc., etc.

• Maybe

the answer is to get properly equipped for all outdoor
eventualities, but that’s expensive.

• Maybe it’s to seek out carefully managed, tame outdoor
experiences (“soft rugged”), but doesn’t that defeat the point?

• The industry thinks about outdoor participation daily; how do you
juxtapose “soft rugged” against “skills needed” and create an outdoor
industry future that fits “authentic” enthusiasts and everyone else?

@ erwwpr


What Trend No. 1
Means for the
Outdoor Industry:
The task: Get Americans off their butts
and outside–more motivated and less
fearful. How? Smart consumer segmentation;
inclusive, clear brand positioning;
and compelling communication.

@ erwwpr


The perceived stereotypes are no more; there
is a large urban contingent to #OIBIZ now. It’s
not just about being in the mountains. @clinard

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#mamaneedspills

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2

@ erwwpr

The Great
.Escape?


2. The Great
Escape?
• Today, being

outdoors doesn’t mean being out of contact. Ski
slopes and hiking trails—even Mount Everest—can now get
cell service. Just what consumers want, right?

• Are

we truly getting away from it all to improve our health
and de-stress only to be engaging in the very behavior that
made us want to unplug?

@ erwwpr


2. The Great
Escape?
• And

in terms of health, people now wonder about the
emotional and psychological risks of being permanently
reachable.

• Mobile

connectivity has gone from handy convenience
(remember pagers?) to business tool to something
approaching an addiction.

@ erwwpr


What Trend No. 2
Means for the
Outdoor Industry:
We need to talk amongst ourselves: How
much do we want to include connectivity
into equipment design when consumers
might rebel and choose total escape?
On the other hand, do we want to be
discouraging connectivity?

@ erwwpr


#noanswer

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3
@ erwwpr

Water:
.The Next Oil


3. Water:
The Next Oil
• People

have been talking about this for decades, but it will
soon come true—and we’re not talking bottled water, which
already costs as much as $10 a gallon.

• Drier

places in the world (Australia, the Middle East, the
American Southwest) have long lived with drought and
squabbled over water resources for the basics of life.

• Waterways

are as much a part of deep American mythology
as Broadway—and more deeply sustaining in the long run.

@ erwwpr


3. Water:
The Next Oil
• Modern

consumption, hygiene habits and population growth
are draining reservoirs, rivers and groundwater faster than
a bathtub with the plug pulled.

• Another

problem: The less time people spend outdoors, the
more they forget that water doesn’t just come out of a
faucet (and, yes, the Internet isn’t in your computer, either).

• So

the more time people spend outdoors, the more likely
they are to appreciate water as a sacred resource. It’s all
about sustainability.

@ erwwpr


What Trend No. 3
Means for the
Outdoor Industry:
Savvy companies will tap into
conscientious consumers’ deep (and
possibly unconscious) well of yearning
for water with products that save,
respect and celebrate water.

@ erwwpr


#nobusinesslikeflowbusiness

@ erwwpr


4
@ erwwpr

What’s Not
.Online-able
Is Doomed

My essential item would be my iPhone.
Outdoor doesn’t mean cut-off. #oibiz @Capibaro

@ erwwpr


4. What’s Not Onlineable Is Doomed
• 1980s: CDs made LPs obsolete, then MP3 music through the
Internet started killing CDs (and the old-style music industry).

• 1990s: DVDs

started replacing VHS; now, DVDs face
pressure from Tivo-style DVRs and on-demand Internetdelivery services.

• Early

2000s: Digital cameras hit consumer markets; in
2005, Kodak’s digital products and services overtook its film
product sales.

• Today: Printed

books, magazines and newspapers are selling
less; in February 2011, e-book sales overtook print book
sales by 202 percent month-over-month.

@ erwwpr


4. What’s Not Onlineable Is Doomed
• The

yin: Consumers might have their doubts about
technology (see Trend 2). The yang: Its benefits get more
compelling with every passing month.

• Indoors, people

can do all the fact-finding they need: outdoor
activities, locations, costs, user comments and reviews,
equipment needed and where to buy it, etc.

• Outdoors, a

mobile device can give directions, track progress,
find stores, take and upload photos, post to social media,
send texts, make phone calls. (No cell coverage? Load up
music, videos, podcasts, books, maps, news and reference
materials ahead of time.)

@ erwwpr


For running, walking and cycling @runkeeper
is a winner - great app at a great price, great
(albeit short) brand story #oibiz @Stuarte

@ erwwpr


What Trend No. 4
Means for the
Outdoor Industry:
Brands or products that have cool
online elements will beat those that
don’t. They need online smarts to
deliver (digitally or otherwise) even
where there’s no signal.

@ erwwpr


#getonorgohome

@ erwwpr


5

The New Social:
.Antisocial (aka
Getting Away from
It All)

@ erwwpr


Do you prefer to enjoy the outdoors in a large
group, or solo? #oibiz

@ erwwpr


If looking for solitude & peace, then perhaps
alone. If for gen rec & fun then w/ group like
my family @davepetri

@ erwwpr


5. The New Social:
Antisocial (aka Getting
Away from It All)
• Even

if we don’t like the name, we all love social media in
one form or another. But sometimes its paradoxes are just
plain ridiculous—or tragic.

• People

don’t smoke anymore when nervous in a social
setting; they check their FB page or Twitter feed on their
mobile device.

• Some

people even do it while walking, shopping, fishing,
jogging, cycling…oblivious to the people around them—until
they bump into them.

@ erwwpr


5. The New Social:
Antisocial (aka Getting
Away from It All)
• The

“new social” often interrupts physical interactions with
people—attention flits from face-to-face conversation to the
online action.

• Fifty-nine

percent of online adults use at least one social
networking site. Are there benefits with connection?

• It’s

a one-way trend of more technology. Another 10 years of
smart phones and tablets (iPad 13?) will make it even more
compelling for consumers to interact socially through tech.

@ erwwpr


What Trend No. 5
Means for the
Outdoor Industry:
With social media on mobile devices,
consumers can have the best of both
worlds: doing activities outside and
being able to connect as much or as
little as they want (sharing
experiences, favorite trails, pictures,
bragging rights and more).

@ erwwpr


#socialsecurity

@ erwwpr


6

The Brain and Homo
.Sapiens 2.0

@ erwwpr


6. The Brain and Homo
Sapiens 2.0
• The

brain—the final frontier—has 100 billion neurons, each
with 1,000 to 10,000 synapses and trillions of connections.

• Neuroscience

is the new rock ’n’ roll, the new media darling,
looking into brains with high-tech scanners and revealing
the workings of everything from addiction to zoophobia.

• It

holds out the promise of enhancing memory and
creativity, plus offering better treatment for illnesses and
delaying the brain’s aging with supplements, drugs and
devices.

@ erwwpr


6. The Brain and Homo
Sapiens 2.0
• We

now know that our brains are shaped—literally—by what
we experience. For millennia, the sights, sounds and feelings
of the outdoors have shaped brains.

• Now

we’re increasingly experiencing interactive technology
mediated through screens.

• We

have the scientific instruments to see how the technical
tools we’re using are changing our brains; we have a box
seat for the emergence of Homo sapiens 2.0.

“Perhaps not since early man first discovered how to
use a tool has the human brain been affected so
quickly and so dramatically.” —UCLA neuroscientist Gary
Small on modern technology

@ erwwpr


What Trend No. 6
Means for the
Outdoor Industry:
Watch as n (for “neuro”) gets applied to
brain products and services: nBoosters,
nHancers, nGames, nGagement. The outdoor
industry needs to be an important
shaper of healthy brains: It would be
sad for Homo sapiens 2.0 if brains’
environment of the future is nDoors.

@ erwwpr


#brainsgetsmart

@ erwwpr


7

Hyperlocal Is
.the New Global–
Indoors and Out

@ erwwpr


There are certain products that should require
interaction. Proper technical boot fitting can’t
be done over the web. #OIBIZ - @clinard

@ erwwpr


7. Hyperlocal Is the New
Global–Indoors and Out
• It’s

interesting to know what’s happening in other parts of
the world, but it’s really interesting—and useful—to know
what’s happening right on your doorstep. Virtually
guaranteed relevance.

• When

hot or cold weather comes unexpectedly early, smart
online stores might flag relevant promotions—and figure out
how to deliver the goods within hours. Plus, buying locally
helps the local economy and supports the community. No
contest.

@ erwwpr


7. Hyperlocal Is the New
Global–Indoors and Out
• All

the hot new online services are either about where you
live or work or where you are right now with your mobile
device so that they can deliver news, information and deals
that likely matter to you.

• Hyperlocal

media such as Patch is more than just the
traditional local newspaper or broadcasting delivered online,
although Patch’s model involves journalism and bloggers
(and CSR); it’s a real-time, interactive connection within and
between local communities.

• Hyperlocal

means being able to get together on-the-fly
picnics and softball games in the local park, or arrange
impromptu bike rides with real flesh-and-blood people.

@ erwwpr


What Trend No. 7
Means for the
Outdoor Industry:
With the Internet, businesses can track
consumer choices and adjust offers to
match. Hyperlocal media makes them
even more relevant to consumers and
their communities as they go about their
activities indoors and out.

@ erwwpr


#locoforlocal

@ erwwpr


8

@ erwwpr

Brutal Honesty/
.Rugged Love


8. Brutal Honesty/
Rugged Love
• Years

of playing nicely together led to an “everyone gets a
medal” mentality, with every action earning “Great job!”

• Political

correctness has prompted endless mental
contortions to avoid causing offense. Being honestychallenged might be the most widespread condition of our
times.

• “Awesome”

is killing us. Sitting indoors staring at screens is
making Americans soft and pudgy—armchair athletes,
lounger pundits, the indoor version of the Marines (aka Wii
Warriors).

@ erwwpr


8. Brutal Honesty/
Rugged Love
• Whether

laziness, habit or fear of the wide world outside,
the brutally honest truth is that America is losing the
rugged edge and frontier spirit that made it great. We risk
becoming a nation of sedentary, pudgy, pasty-faced softies
who leave the tough stuff to an elite few.

• As world citizens, especially Americans, try to deal with the
challenges of China and India, they will look for ways to
toughen up and will increasingly value tell-it-like-it-is honesty.

• Consumers

are loving the rugged that’s served up for them:
Dial’s Camp Dirt sweepstakes and “Dirty Jobs” on Discovery
are just two examples from outside the industry; there are
dozens more from inside it.

@ erwwpr


What Trend No. 8
Means for the
Outdoor Industry:
Millions of Americans could get huge
benefits from stepping out of their
centrally heated or air-conditioned
comfort zone. The outdoor industry
needs to practice rugged love to
convince more Americans to develop a
hands-on love of rugged.

@ erwwpr


#justsayit

@ erwwpr


9

Beached White Males
.Seek New Habitats

@ erwwpr


9. Beached White Males
Seek New Habitats
• Despite

what typical Hollywood movies have shown, the
reality of life for many American men has been more
William H. Macy than Clint Eastwood.

• After

the recession of the early 1990s, the movie Falling
Down portrayed an average Caucasian American male raging
against downsizing, immigrants, crime, an anti-male legal
system and commercial hype. Things have not gotten better.

• The

angry white man (AWM) has been an increasingly
influential figure in America (think Joe the Plumber), riled
by affirmative action, the rise of women and the decline in
blue-collar occupations.

@ erwwpr


9. Beached White Males
Seek New Habitats
• Now, the

Great Recession has birthed what Newsweek called
Beached White Males. Better educated than AWMs, they
became used to living the dream—but now are surplus to the
needs of a straitened economy.

• Tough

times are ahead: The nation’s finances are shot,
educated women are ever more influential in the workforce,
Hispanics are growing in number and America is losing its
No. 1 status.

• What can BWMs do to get some of the respect they used to
enjoy—particularly those who earn (or earned) their living
doing jobs involving lots of sitting indoors and pushing pixels?

@ erwwpr


What Trend No. 9
Means for the
Outdoor Industry:
Go west! (Or at least go outside.) The
great American outdoors–and heritage
brands that reflect it–can refresh the
souls and stiffen the sinews of the
nation’s BWMs. For outdoor industry
marketers, here’s the positioning: soft
core vs. hard core; ironic vs. serious.

@ erwwpr


“How do you define outdoor recreation?” Mass
retailers make no distinction bt hunting/
fishing and outdoor rec. Why do we? #oibiz @LarryPluimer

@ erwwpr


#getout

@ erwwpr


10

@ erwwpr

More Real
.than Real


50% of all innovation processes will be gamified
by 2015 - Gamification is transforming
business. - Gabe Zichermann #SB11
@SustainBrands

@ erwwpr


10. More Real
than Real
• Lots

of things from real life can be done in computer
simulation, which can save time, money and lives. Even in
the dark ages of computer graphics, U.S. Marines and airline
pilots did it.

• With

CGI and 3-D, gamemakers and moviemakers are
creating experiences more vivid, more stimulating and more
engrossing than almost anything in the real world.

• Millions

of civilians immerse themselves in hyperrealistic
computer games for hours on end.

@ erwwpr


10. More Real
than Real
• It’s

a good idea for consumers to get many thrills in
simulation rather than IRL (in real life), from high-speed
car chases to illicit sex.

• As

computing power increases and tech companies refine
offerings, consumers will increasingly find ordinary life
experiences less “real” than mediated virtual ones.

• But some virtual experiences can still whet consumers’
appetites for the real thing: the feel of a warm sun, the smell
of freshly cut grass, the gurgle of water rushing over rapids.

• And

companies will want to include gaming as part of
employee training.

@ erwwpr


What Trend No. 10
Means for the
Outdoor Industry:
Virtual is here to stay, so the outdoor
industry must figure out ways to use
programs and apps as stepping-stones
to create desire for the real outdoors
and the products that go with it.

@ erwwpr


#virtualnecessity

@ erwwpr


11
@ erwwpr

Bankrupt + Broke
.= Gritty Chic


11. Bankrupt + Broke
= Gritty Chic
• Until

a couple of years ago, ordinary Americans could taste
a little of the high life with a home equity loan and a smart
juggling of credit cards.

• But

at the end of 2010, 11.1 million U.S. households (23.1
percent of homeowners) were in negative equity, with no
prospects of the housing market picking up soon.

• Things

have bounced back for the top 1 percent of
Americans (who take in almost a quarter of the nation’s
income and own around 40 percent of its wealth), but the
remaining 99 percent aren’t in such great shape.

@ erwwpr


11. Bankrupt + Broke
= Gritty Chic
• If

it’s any consolation to the 99 percent, the shine of the
1 percent is much less bright than before the financial
meltdown. They’ve lost their chic.

• Expect Americans’

ingenuity and love of the comeback to
reinvent a gritty chic by/for the battling bankrupt and broke.

• But

at what price for the outdoor industry? What is the
consumer tolerance for higher prices when they have less
money to spend?

@ erwwpr


Here at CiloGear, I find that really well
designed and built function turns into
interesting good fashion. #oibiz - @cilogear

@ erwwpr


Think simpler, aim to create sense of
accessibility & show how 2 stay w/in reasonable
budget, dispel myth of how $$$ #oibiz is @BryanKuhn

@ erwwpr


What Trend No. 11
Means for the
Outdoor Industry:
Speak authentically and honestly to
the condition of people who have a lot
less spending power than they used
to–but still have self-respect, hope,
dreams and hobbies–while keeping
yourself in business.

@ erwwpr


#pushandpull

@ erwwpr


11.5

New Traditions for the
Making and Taking

@ erwwpr


11.5 New Traditions for
the Making and Taking
• Everybody

likes traditions (royal wedding, anyone?), but
who wants to wait around for years for an enjoyable one-off
to mature into a tradition that we can also look forward to?

• Fortunately, modern

life and interactive technologies distort
the fabric of space and time.

• Anything

that has happened three years running is well on
the way to feeling like a tradition. No wonder SXSW
(founded in 1987) and even Lebowski Fest (founded in
2002) seem to have been there forever.

@ erwwpr


11.5 New Traditions for
the Making and Taking
• With

the echo chamber of interactive multichannel
technology, any event that has traction hits multiple touch
points and creates numerous cross-references, making it feel
familiar very quickly.

• As

interactivity and the pace of life accelerate, there will be
plenty of scope for people to create a whole calendar of new
traditions to anticipate.

• Marathons

have become a fixture across the U.S. and
Canada, running from three on New Year’s Day to the Last
Chance marathon on Dec. 31; triathlon participation is up
more than 10 percent and adventure racing up 18+ percent
over last year, according to OIA.

@ erwwpr


What Trend No. 11.5
Means for the
Outdoor Industry:
There’s an appetite for annual events that
stretch legs, but not everybody is up for
long distances. Fortunately, there are
alternatives. Take the Dutch tradition of
Four Day marches, which gets communities
walking their local area for several
hours on consecutive evenings–a winning
mix of local, community and outdoor.

@ erwwpr


The only entry requirement is positive
disposition. Enthusiasm is a better factor than
“fitness.” Why isolate your audience? #OIBIZ @clinard

@ erwwpr


#practice=perfect

@ erwwpr


What It All Means
• Everything

is changing faster, more furiously and sometimes
with less purpose than ever.

• Sustainability is key.
• The $1 million question: How

much technology do consumers
want in their outdoor experience?

•A

big challenge and opportunity for the outdoor industry is
to remind Americans that not all the interesting stuff in life
happens through a screen. Engaging in real-life outdoors can
be pretty immersive, too.

• And

the industry needs to be open to letting more people in
the “club.”

@ erwwpr


Thank you.

@ erwwpr


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