Analysing smart path scenarios with ETSAP-TIAM

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Smart paths scenarios with
ETSAP-TIAM
71TH SEMI-ANNUAL ETSAP MEETING
Maryland, USA 11.07.2017
Pernille Seljom (pernille.seljom@ife.no) &
Arne Lind (arne.lind@ife.no)

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• Design of cost-effective Norwegian climate policy to reach a climate
neutral 2050
• Address Smart paths and costly detours towards a sustainable low-
emission society
• A global CGE model, SNOW, and ETSAP-TIAM are used to address
future global scenarios
11.07.2017
Project description
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11.07.2017
Project description
Funded by the Norwegian Research Council
Project leader: SSB Research Department
Partners: SSB, IFE, BI, +Transdisciplinary Forum
Project period: 2017 - 2020
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11.07.2017
Scenario description
trytu
Oil demand
High Low
Normsandpreferences
Inertia
Rapid shift
B - Nissan Leaf
D - TeslaC - Tanks
A - Prius
A - Prius
• Renewable Europe
• Fossil use in developing
countries
• CCS
• 3 degree by 2050
• Adaptation strategies
C - Tanks
• EU reach 2030 targets
• Unstable world - war
• Low R&D
• Limited renewables
• 2050 – Europe resumes
ambitious targets
B - Nissan Leaf
• Less materialistic
values
• Prosumers
• Rapid growth in low
clean technologies
• Stagnating POP
• < 2 degree by 2050
D - Tesla
• Renewable revolution
• Technology in focus
• Digitalisation
• Homogeneous world
• Less bio diversity
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Scenario description
Climate treaty cooperation
Oil demand
High LowNormsandpreferences
Inertia
Rapid shift
B
Ambitious &
compliant
D
C
Unambitious &
uncompliant
A
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• The scenarios is translated to model input to ETSAP-TIAM,
• Demand drivers; GDP, POP, + +
• Learning curves
• Constraints on GHG emissions
• Resource availability
• Constraints on nuclear and CCS
• Regional constraints
• + + +
• Parts of the input to ETSAP-TIAM is provided by SNOW
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Scenario description
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• Any input, suggestions and/ or advise on:
• Linkage of ETSAP-TIAM with a global macro-economic model?
• Modelling of extreme scenarios with ETSAP-TIAM?
• Are the scenarios interesting?
• What can go wrong?
• How can we succeed?
11.07.2017
Questions to the ETSAP community
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Thank you for the attention
pernille.seljom@ife.no
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