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Energy-Water-Land Nexus in Germany: A case study

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Energy-Water-Land Nexus in Germany: A case study
Ms. Vera Sehn, University of Stuttgart - IER

Publicado en: Medio ambiente
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Energy-Water-Land Nexus in Germany: A case study

  1. 1. Energy-Water-Land Use Nexus in Germany: A case study Vera Sehn
  2. 2. Previous publications on the Nexus: • Without methodology: • Conceptualization of the energy-water land/food nexus (70% of the 245 articles examined by Albrecht et al. 1)) • With methodology and scenario analysis: • Coupling of several sub-models • No energy system model with integrated water and land use interactions ____________________________________________ 1 T. R. Albrecht, A. Crootof, and C. A. Scott. 2018: The Water-Energy-Food Nexus : A systematic review of methods for nexus assessment The Water-Energy-Food Nexus : A systematic review of methods for nexus assessment, Environ. Res. Lett.. 16.07.2020IER Universität Stuttgart 2 Literature 1. Introduction
  3. 3. 16.07.2020IER Universität Stuttgart 3 2. Methodological development in TIMES PanEU
  4. 4. 16.07.2020IER Universität Stuttgart 4 Dissaggrigation of the agricultural sector in TIMES PanEU 2. Methodological developments
  5. 5. climate goal: 90 % GHG reduction Nexus model Energy model 16.07.2020IER Universität Stuttgart 5 Scenario definition 2. Methodological development
  6. 6. 16.07.2020IER Universität Stuttgart 6 Bioenergy crop cultivation 3. Results • Nexus modelling includes fertilizer emissions → leads to less biomass demand • Biomass cultivation potential is not used due to additional nitrous oxide emissions • Medium-term: sugar beet cultivation involves less specific nitrous oxide emissions than rapeseed cultivation • Long-term: woody crops favoured biomass type, as there are hardly any specific nitrous oxide emissions • Irrigation is applied 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 statistics nexusmodel energymodel nexusmodel energymodel nexusmodel energymodel 2015 2030 2040 2050 Landuse[ha] woody crops irrigated woody crops rainfed starchy crops irrigated starchy crops rainfed sugar crops rainfed rape seed rainfed
  7. 7. 16.07.2020IER Universität Stuttgart 7 Net electricity generation (public and non public) 3. Results Nexus extensions lead to • more wind and solar energy use • less bioenergy use • slightly faster decarbonization -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 statistics nexusmodel energymodel nexusmodel energymodel nexusmodel energymodel nexusmodel energymodel nexusmodel energymodel nexusmodel energymodel nexusmodel energymodel 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 netelectricitygeneration[TWh] storage net electricity import others, non-renewable waste other renewable energies biomass, renew. waste Solar PV Wind offshore Wind onshore hydro energy incl. pump storage nuclear natural gas mineral oil coal lignite
  8. 8. • Agricultural sector has the most unavoidable process emissions of the entire energy system • Further reduction measures through a change in demand are imaginable: 16/07/2020IER Universität Stuttgart 8 Remaining GHG emissions of all sectors in 2050 (90% GHG reduction, without any CCS or CCU) 3. Results Nexus model
  9. 9. • Agricultural sector has the most unavoidable process emissions of the entire energy system • Further reduction measures through a change in demand are imaginable: • Food waste prevention measure (14 % of the total food demand according to ISWA study) could save 4.5 Mt CO2-eq and 2.3 million ha of land • Meat innovation measure (laboratory meat and innovative alternative products (development according to ATKearney study)) could save 9.1 Mt CO2-eq and 4.9 million ha of land area 16.07.2020IER Universität Stuttgart 9 Remaining GHG emissions of all sectors in 2050 (90% GHG reduction, without any CCS or CCU) 3. Results Nexus model
  10. 10. 16.07.2020IER Universität Stuttgart 10 Total water demand from all sectors with variation of the climate target 3. Results • The stricter the climate target, the more biomass is used and the higher the demand for irrigation water/total water demand • Measure Water Resource Efficiency: Reuse of waste water for irrigation of woody crops 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Statistics ETS(nexusmodel) GHG90(nexusmodel) CUM95(nexusmodel) ETS(nexusmodel) GHG90(nexusmodel) CUM95(nexusmodel) ETS(nexusmodel) GHG90(nexusmodel) CUM95(nexusmodel) ETS(nexusmodel) GHG90(nexusmodel) CUM95(nexusmodel) 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 wateruse[millionm3] Irrigation Biomass Lignite mining water withdrawal Cooling water Biogas / Biofuel Cooling water Biomass solid / Waste ren. Cooling water Waste non renewable Cooling water Nuclear Cooling water Natural Gas Cooling water Oil Cooling water Coal & Lignite Industrial Water Supply Public Water Supply
  11. 11. Water point of view • The higher the GHG reduction target, the higher the demand for irrigation water/total water demand • Reuse of waste water for irrigation of woody crops • Water price is a functional incentive to avoid biomass irrigation in an optimization environment • Climate change forecasts of water availability vary greatly from region to region Land use point of view • Less use of agricultural biomass (due to fertilizer emissions) • Woody crops future preferred biomass type • Measures to change the demand for agricultural products could save up to 7 million hectares of land without changing essential nutritional habits • New potential for renewable energies or GHG sinks? More cooperation between the agricultural and energy sectors 16.07.2020IER Universität Stuttgart 11 4. Summary
  12. 12. • T. R. Albrecht, A. Crootof, and C. A. Scott. 2018: The Water-Energy-Food Nexus : A systematic review of methods for nexus assessment The Water-Energy- Food Nexus : A systematic review of methods for nexus assessment, Environ. Res. Lett.. • H. H. Rogner et al., “Seeking CLEWS - Climate, Land, Energy and Water Strategies - A pilot case study in Mauritius,” no. Sei, pp. 1–24, 2011. • C. Ringler, D. Willenbockel, N. Perez, M. Rosegrant, T. Zhu, and N. Matthews, “Global linkages among energy , food and water : an economic assessment,” J Env. Stud Sci, vol. 6, pp. 161–171, 2016. • D. P. van Vuuren et al., “Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm,” Glob. Environ. Chang., vol. 42, pp. 237–250, 2017. • I. Mouratiadou et al., “The impact of climate change mitigation on water demand for energy and food: An integrated analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,” Environ. Sci. Policy, vol. 64, pp. 48–58, 2016. • M. Hejazi et al., “Long-term global water projections using six socioeconomic scenarios in an integrated assessment modeling framework,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 81, no. 1, pp. 205–226, 2014. • M. Li, Q. Fu, V. P. Singh, D. Liu, C. Zhang, and T. Li, “An optimal modelling approach for managing agricultural water-energy-food nexus under uncertainty,” Sci. Total Environ., vol. Volume 651, pp. 1416–1434, 2019. • R. E. Engström, G. Destouni, M. Howells, V. Ramaswamy, H. Rogner, and M. Bazilian, “Cross-scalewater and land impacts of local climate and energy policy- A local Swedish analysis of selected SDG interactions,” Sustain., vol. 11, no. 7, 2019. • Lucas et al., 2007: Long-term reduction potential of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency • Sehn V., Blesl M., The implications of national climate targets on the energy-water nexus applied on a case study of Germany. (in press). • Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, 2019: Mitteilung vom 15.04.2019. • Wissenschaftlicher Beirat Agrarpolitik, Ernährung und gesundheitlicher Verbraucherschutz und Wissenschaftlicher Beirat Waldpolitik beim BMEL, 2016: Klimaschutz in der Land- und Forstwirtschaft sowie den nachgelagerten Bereichen Ernährung und Holzverwendung. Gutachten. Berlin 16.07.2020IER Universität Stuttgart 12 Sources
  13. 13. E-Mail University Stuttgart Thank you for your attention! IER Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung Vera Sehn Institute of energey economics and rational energy use Vera.sehn@ier.uni-stuttgart.de

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