1. Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Grid Features in the TIMES-
based Japan Model
Hiroshi Hamasaki
Research Fellow
Economic Research Centre
Fujitsu Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan
Amit Kanudia
Partner
KanORS-EMR, Noida, India
72nd
Semi-Annual ETSAP Workshop, Zurich, Switzerland
2. Contents
I. Motivations
Quick introduction on original TIMES-based Japan model
• Japan Multi-regional Transmission (JMRT) Model
Why are grid-features necessary?
II. Grid Features in JMRT
III. Simulations: VRE Share and Grid Infrastructure
IV. Conclusion
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4. Overview of JMRT
3
H2
Automobile
FCV
Fuel Cell
Hydrogen Station
Energy
Storage
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Refinery, Steel etc.
Brown Coal
Renewables
Renewables
Sewage
Thermal
/Nuclear
Oil Field Refinery Petrol
Station
5. Prefecture Level Resolution (47 Prefectures)
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• Detailed energy system by prefecture
• Reflects regional characteristics
Coal
LNG
Oil
Sankey
6. REs Potential
Potential of Renewables
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Offshore Wind
Onshore Wind
Geothermal
Source: FRI, based on MoE Renewable
Potential Map
Ely GridRoad
• 1km2
mesh of renewable potential
data
• Each mesh point has unique data
including investment, availability
factor.
• Reflects existing infrastructure,
electricity grid and roads.
7. Potential of Renewables
(Geographic Information System)
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No. Prefecture Lat. Long.
Wind
speed
1
2
3
Geothermal
Offshore Wind
Onshore Wind
GIS Data is from MOE Potential Survey
Enormous onshore wind
potential
Large center of
electricity consumption
1 km
mesh
11. 世帯数
(●=100世帯)
But…
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Onshore Wind
Potential
Switching
Station
e.g. Grid Capacity =0.5GW
Original JMRT assumes no grid
infra development/expansion
within grid region is necessary to
transmit electricity within
electricity grid region.
12. II. GRID FEATURES IN JMRT
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13. Nodes and Grid Capacity
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47
Prefectures
351
Nodes
18. Wind Capacity, VRE 55%, 2050
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(GW)
GE Scenario No GE Scenario
25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N
25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N
19. Wind Capacity, VRE 55%, 2050
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25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N
20. Wind Capacity, VRE 55%, 2050
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25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N
21. Wind Capacity, VRE 55%, 2050
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25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N
Offshore Wind
Onshore Wind
22. Grid Connections Expansion (VRE: 55%)
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25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N
23. Additional Grid Capacity in Grid Region
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25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N
GW
24. In the case of Hokkaido…
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25. Marginal Electricity Price in 2050
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JPY/kWh
GE Scenario No GE Scenario
25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N
25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Y N
*Spring Daytime
Tokyo
NagoyaOsaka
Kyoto
Kobe
26. Share of REs and Marginal Cost
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25% 40% 55%
JPY/kWh
*Spring Daytime
*Year 2050
27. IV. Conclusions
351 nodes grid model works on PC.
r3.xlarge on AWS
Node level resolution of model reflects reality which is
geological distribution of energy consumption and renewable
energy potential and identify the burden of grid infrastructure
under high VRE share.
Under the current electricity grid infrastructure, high VRE share
widen marginal electricity price between nodes.
High electricity price in three major economic regions, Tokyo, Osaka and
Nagoya.
In Tokyo area, offshore-wind will be introduced to meet VRE share
target.
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30. Allocation of Demand
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Prefecture
Small area category of
National Census, 2010
Node
Household Office Passenger
# of people
(Jinko)
# of People
(Jinko)
# of people
(Jinko)
GIS
Nat.
Census
29