4. So what are Cognitive Biases?
Shortcuts the brain takes to be able to get from
one end of the day to the other. That don’t come
up with the rational best solution.
6. Is this it?
Too Much
Information
We notice
things already
in memory
We find things
that match
our beliefs
Funny or odd
things stick
out
We spot the
changes
7. Is this it?
Too Much
Information
Not Enough
Meaning
We find
stories and
patterns
We simplify
numbers and
probabilities
We assume
things we like
are better
We
stereotype
8. Is this it?
Too Much
Information
Need to Act
Fast
Not Enough
Meaning
We continue
with things we
have started
We prefer the
thing we see
first
We do what
we feel is
important
We pick
simple
solutions
9. Is this it?
Too Much
Information
Need to Act
Fast
What Should
We
Remember?
Not Enough
Meaning
We store
memories by
how we
experienced
them
We reduce
things to key
elements
We edit some
memories
after the fact
We
generalise
10. Everything that the brain sees or hears or touches
has multiple interpretations. The one that is
ultimately chosen is simply the brain’s best
guess at interpreting what flows into it.
11. If we’ve been doing it for millennia, how important
are they really?
19. Do you ask people to put
down their thoughts
individually before
sharing ideas?
Do you break people up
into smaller groups?
20. You are probably already familiar with
the bandwagon effect
Do you ask people to put
down their thoughts
individually before
sharing ideas?
Do you break people up
into smaller groups?
24. Let me tell you about Linda
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very
bright. She got a 1st in philosophy. As a student
she was deeply concerned with issues of
discrimination and social justice. She also
participated in anti war demonstrations
Is it more likely she is a bank teller, or a feminist
bank teller?
25. The Conjunction Fallacy
90 % of people get this wrong!
What could this mean when you are exploring
options with stakeholders?
Bank Teller
Feminist
bank
teller
26. The Power of Now
or
Hyperbolic Discounting
• One marshmallow now or 2 marshmallows in 20 minutes
• £5 now or £10 in a year
The Hyperbolic Discounting Effect is why people show a
preference for a reward that arrives sooner rather than
later.
28. Anchoring
A pound to a penny , you all use this already if you
write business cases.
• Option 1 - $1,500,000
• Option 2 - $1,000,000
• Option 3 - $500,000
30. Losses and gains are not equivalent
People want to avoid
losing £10 roughly
twice as much as
they want to gain
£10
Loss Aversion
Cognitive Bias
31. BA Planning
Planning and estimating
are a key part of any IT
project.
Often described as a
‘Black Art’………
32. It isn’t - we are just rubbish at it!
We underestimate the time it will take us to
do something
Average
Best Worst
No of days
33. It isn’t - we are just rubbish at it!
We underestimate the time it will take us to
do something
We do this, even when we KNOW how long
it has taken us to do this in the past
Average
Best Worst
Actual Average
No of days
34. It isn’t - we are just rubbish at it!
We underestimate the time it will take us to
do something
We do this, even when we KNOW how long
it has taken us to do this in the past
It only affects estimates of how long it will
take us to do something.
When we estimate for someone else to do
the work we over estimate!
Average
Best Worst
Actual Average
No of days
35. So what can you do?
Half of being smart is knowing what you are dumb
about
Solomon Short
36. Can you avoid them?
No, not completely
Sadly, there is such a thing as the Bias blind spot.
Everyone is less likely to detect
bias in themselves than others
37. They can be
pretty
inescapable
Most of us know that these are
the same size.
But the bottom one still looks
bigger…..
This is the Jastrow Illusion
42. What else?
Pre-
Mortem
Before a project starts:-
As a team, imagine every
problem that could come up
• Focus on the show stoppers
• Pick the ones that are likely
to happen
• Agree solutions
49. Cognitive biases are most likely to affect you when
• You have too much information
• You need to act fast
• You don’t know what you should remember
• There isn’t enough meaning
Cognitive bias is not about being stupid or not thinking enough.
Even judges do it
Study done in 2010
when judges make repeated rulings, they show an increased tendency to rule in favor of the status quo.
They are intelligent peopl who believe they are making logic based decisions, but the graph seems to show otherwise
Gregory Burns the author of iconoclast
His study of innovative thinking of why some people can think innovatively &other’s can't
The brain uses a lot of energy and to be efficient it looks for something familiar when it's faced with new.
This is my first time in this building am I worried that the ceiling may fall down no because my brain is using information about modern buildings I don't have the time or energy to assess every building I going to do my brain just take a shortcut on the basis that we’ve never been inone that’s fallen down before
Cognitive- to do with thinking
Bias – tendency to behave and believe one way with out evidence.
You may have heard people talk of ‘Lizard Brain’ and ‘Monkey Brain’
Or of Kahneman’s Type 1 & type 2 brains.
Basically the current model for our brains is that we have a part of our brain, that responds really quickly, focussed on survival and quick actions without having to weigh up all the options. This is the type 1 or lizard brain
The other part of our brain is slower and more logical and makes factual decisions.
In business analysis we want to favour logical based decisions over survival based ones.
Here is the cognitive bias codex. If you are interetsted then I suggest that you look this up on line. But I know that this is impossible to read on s screen so
here is the summary
There are many known biases that fall into 4 main areas.
You can be tripped up in many ways.
There are many known biases that fall into 4 main areas.
You can be tripped up in many ways.
There are many known biases that fall into 4 main areas.
You can be tripped up in many ways.
There are many known biases that fall into 4 main areas.
You can be tripped up in many ways.
We notice what matters to us
I had a friend who used to work in a paper goods factory and…..
My Dad worked in the restaurant business and….
Everyone else is oblivious to that
What are you oblivious to that matters?
These have enabled our survival, surely we can live with them.
So how important are they?
The computers in the hospitals were running Windows XP.
They hadn’t been upgraded, because, like they still work and nothing has happened so far….
If that isn’t an example of the optismisn bias in action then I don’t know what is!
From the BABOK
All these knowledge areas contain tasks that require you to work with stakeholders
Stakeholders are people
You are a person
Cognitive biases affect people
They can impact everything you do
They are a common method for strategy development, business needsand planning
When I scan through the phots on my phone it is full of pictures of post its
Different colours, different shapes sharpie pens.
Still post its
We know that there are limitations to workshops
You are already trying to mitgate the bandwagon effect.
Bandwagon
Bandwagon effect
Shutting up the big mouths
Allowing more ideas to come out
You are already trying to mitgate the bandwagon effect.
BYou are already trying to mitgate the bandwagon effect.
Bandwagon
Bandwagon effect
Shutting up the big mouths
Allowing more ideas to come out
Sticking with the Status quo
Have you heard of the Lego serious play method? There was a session on it last year, which I missed.
You will et something completely different
Give them a different tool and
Is it more likely she is a bank teller, or a feminist bank teller.
90% of people get this wrong.
The more you know, the more likely you thin k it is = The conjunction fallacy
Even when the inormation is not relevant
What does that mean when you are exploring new options with your stakeholders?\
What happens if there is someone who knows a lot about something?
Conjunction/ Ambiguity
This also shows itslef as the ambiguity effect, where missing information makes the probability seem unknown.
The power of now!
Why we do bad things
Bird in the hand
Requirements will be very now focussed. If you want to know about the long term, you will have to dig for it.
Strategies require a long term view.
This why we are so bad at modifying our diet to lose weight.
Also, it is my theory this is why it is so hard to get people to sign off requirements specs (for those of you that still do them…)
hyperbolic discounting has been observed in rats, pigeons, and monkeys
Story about Christian and Anchoring bias.
We all use it already. Look at the order!
Making numbers look smaller increases their appeal
A favourite of advertisers
Story about Ghandi
30
80
(78)
Story about Christian and Anchoring bias.
Making numbers look smaller increases their appearl
I really couldn’t see how it would work, but somehow it did….
University Events team
Trip to the countryside, clubs, crafts, sports, big name bands
Ticketing system
We express solutions in terms of their benefits
Benefits, efficient, e-tickets instead of paper, getting people in quickly, easy refunds, no cash
2 options – SaaS and own build.
Hung up on’loss’ from SaaS
Rephrased both in terms of least loss.
Projects run to time – rigt?
We estimate, get the estimates right and it all work smoothly.
No.
Projects overrun. We build whole structures for dealing with overruns. But why? Surely we learn.
No we don’t……
In a 1994 study, 37 psychology students were asked to estimate how long it would take to finish their senior theses. The average estimate was 33.9 days. They also estimated how long it would take "if everything went as well as it possibly could" (averaging 27.4 days) and "if everything went as poorly as it possibly could" (averaging 48.6 days). The average actual completion time was 55.5 days, with only about 30% of the students completing their thesis in the amount of time they predicted.[9]
This is the Planning Fallacy
In a 1994 study, 37 psychology students were asked to estimate how long it would take to finish their senior theses. The average estimate was 33.9 days. They also estimated how long it would take "if everything went as well as it possibly could" (averaging 27.4 days) and "if everything went as poorly as it possibly could" (averaging 48.6 days). The average actual completion time was 55.5 days, with only about 30% of the students completing their thesis in the amount of time they predicted.[9]
I was hit by the optimism bias writing this presentation. You may ntice that the slides in the conference pack are not the same as I am showing you now. I thought I’d get it competed by the deadline,, and I didn’t ….
Pot calling the kettle black
So o the understadning your brain is trying to make you take the easiest way out all the time. What can you do?
We’ve looked at some ways already. Here are some more.
40-45 Minutes
Study done in 2010
Israeli judge parole hearings
when judges make repeated rulings, they show an increased tendency to rule in favor of the status quo.
Study done in 2010
Israeli judge parole hearings
when judges make repeated rulings, they show an increased tendency to rule in favor of the status quo.
So o the understadning your brain is trying to make you take the easiest way out all the time. What can you do?
We’ve looked at some ways already. Here are some more.
Everything from heard of rampaging elephants
Elephant in the room that no-one talks about
Who have a check list – you don’t have to act fast.
Try something different, don’t let people fall into patterns of behaviour as their brains swithch off.
Stretch yourself and them
Game storming is great
Cognitive baises kick in when you need to act fast.
Do you need to act fast?
Can you sleep on it. Can you go for a walk round the office to grab a coffee.
Saying something out loud slows you down, having to explain something to other people makes you think it through. They may have more meaning from you, or spot your biases.
We have looked at examples of how CB’s can affect you at all stages of your process and what you can do about it.
From making sure that you don’t just keep banging on at something and take proper breaks, to trying new techniques in workshops to get people to think diferently and stir up the status quo.
It’s a fascinating area, and I’m no expert, but incresed understanding helps me understnd why people do what they do sometimes.