Presented by Da Silva Mlau and Asfaw Negassa during the Tanzania Livestock Master Plan Technical Committee meeting at Colosseum Hotel, Dar es Salaam, 23 June 2016

1. Tanzanian Livestock Population
Baseline Assessment for Tanzania Livestock Sector Analysis
Tanzania Livestock Master Plan Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)
Meeting Colosseum Hotel, Dar Es Salaam, 23rd June 2016
Da Silva Mlau (Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries Development) & Asfaw Negassa (ILRI)
NOT FOR CITATION

2. 1 Objectives
To share with you TLMP development Technical
Advisory Committee members and Other invitees on;
• How the Baseline livestock population to be used in
Tanzania Livestock Sector Analysis have been
computed.
• Comparison of Livestock Population figures
(MALF Vs Projected Baseline)
• Distribution of Livestock Keeping Households by Livestock
Production Zones
And, get your comments for Baseline Livestock
Population assessment

3. 2 Background
• Major Livestock Trend: In general, there is a growing
demand for livestock and livestock products due to
increase in income, population growth and urbanization
• Important question: What is the extent of economic
opportunity provided by this important livestock sector
trend in terms of income growth, agribusinesses, and
national economic growth?
• Major Task: A need for rigorous livestock sector analysis
to assess the size of economic opportunities and to inform
government policies and programs to develop the
livestock sector and its value chains in order to exploit the
emerging market opportunities

4. 2 Background (Continued)
Why is LSA using Livestock Sector Investment
and Policy Toolkit (LSIPT) important?
– to develop and apply an analytical and empirical
modeling framework which integrates herd/flock
growth model with economic model for simulating
baseline livestock production (meat, milk, eggs,
draft power and manure) situations, and
– to ex-ante assess the technical feasibility and
financial profitability of alternative policy and
investment intervention scenarios to improve the
contribution of livestock to household and
national economy in Tanzania.

5. 3 LSIPT: Brief Description of Methodology
 Integrated bio-economic simulation model with
two sub-components;
– Herd growth modeling for representative livestock
production systems over 15 years: determine biological
responses given inputs used in the production process.
(Technical parameters: Population, Off-take, Mortality, etc.)
– Economic model—Multi-year partial enterprise budgeting
approach used (valuation of inputs and outputs linked to
herd/flock growth model) : (Financial parameters: feed costs,
medical costs, prices of products, etc.),

6. 3 LSIPT: Methodology (Continued)
• Based on the two modeling, the tool calculates
Volume/Quantity of production and Value of
production (GDP).
• Required: Baseline livestock population
data and technical and financial parameter
values for baseline simulations and various
intervention scenarios.

7. 4 The Data Sources used
• Survey and Census data
The integrated Living Standard Measurement Survey –
LSMS (National Panel Survey-NPS) data (2010, 2012)
Population and Housing Census – PHC (2012) conducted
by NBS
• The livestock demographic data (for example, fertility rates,
mortality rates and offtake rates) collected from secondary
sources and experts opinions.
• The costs of production for different livestock from the expert
interviews and market price data from literature and other
secondary sources

8. 5 Baseline Year
• The time ”2016” was selected as the
“Baseline year” for the Livestock Sector
Analysis (LSA) – it follows Tanzanian Budget
Year
Need: Establish the baseline livestock
population by projecting the livestock population
from most recent and reliable official data
sources

9. 6 Establishing Baseline Livestock Population: Steps
• First, compute annual livestock population growth rates for different
livestock species using livestock population data from the most recent two
waves of NPS (2010 and 2012) as conducted by the NBS;
– Population for each wave was estimated using appropriate sample
design and weight
– Annual compounded growth rate computed using two population data
points as follows:
– Where r is annual compound growth rate; X and Y are the population
data for the 2010 (first wave) and 2012 (second wave), respectively and
n is the number of years being elapsed between the two waves (n is
equal to 2 in this case).
𝑟 =
𝑌
𝑋
1/𝑛
− 1

10. 6 Establishing Baseline … (Continued)
• Second, determine the most recent livestock population
figures to be projected for 2016
Combination of NPS (2012) and PHC (2012) were used
based on collaborative discussion among NBS and TLMP
team members
Livestock species NPS 2012 Census 2012 Selected as Baseline
(2012)
Cattle 19,200,000 23,900,000 23,900,000
Goats 16,600,000 14,979,340 14,979,340
Sheep 5,628,592 4,390,227 4,390,227
Pig 1,415,380 - 1,415,380
Poultry 54,300,000 36,478,732 36,478,732
Donkey 507,409 - 507,409
Other 3,875,264 - 3,875,264

11. 6 Establishing Baseline … (Continued)
• Third, project the livestock population for the baseline
population in 2016 by applying the annual compounded
growth rate obtained in step 1 to the livestock population data
selected from the NPS and PHC conducted in 2012:
𝑃𝑜𝑝2016 = 𝑃𝑜𝑝2012 ∗ (1 + 𝑟)4
• Where r is annual compound growth rate computed; 𝑃𝑜𝑝2016
is the projected baseline livestock population in 2016 and
𝑃𝑜𝑝2012 is the baseline livestock population in 2012, selected
either from NPS or PHC data.
• The above is simple projection of an existing trend. However,
the LSIPT uses population projection matrix which utilizes
detailed livestock demographic information (age structure,
birth and death rates) and offtakes

12. 6 Established Baseline (2016) Livestock Population
for Tanzania Livestock Sector Analysis
Livestock
species
Projected baseline
population (2016)
Annual
population
growth rate (%)
Cattle 28,435,825 4.7
Goats
16, 672,786 2.8
Sheep 5,012,098 3.5
Pig 1,851,317 7.7
Poultry 37,428,444 0.7
Donkey 572,357 3.2
Other 4,539,665 4.3

13. 7 Comparison of Livestock Population
figures (MALF Vs Projected)
Livestock
species
MALF (Budget
Speech 2016/17)
Projected baseline
population (2016)
+ Commercial
Population
Difference
Cattle 25,800,000 28,829,230 -3,029,230
Goats 17,100,000 16,672,786 427,214
Sheep 9,200,000 5,012,098 4,187,902
Pig 2,670,000 1,908,746 761,254
Poultry 76,500,000 71,928,444 4,571,556
Donkey - 572,357 -
Other - 4,539,665 -

14. 8 Distribution of Livestock Keeping
Households by Production zones
Source: NPS, 2012
National Central (Cn) Coast & Lake
(C&L)
Highland (HL)
4,493,628 985,946 2,294,927 1,212,755
100% 22% 51% 27%

15. Asanteni !!!