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The future of farming and food

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Presented by Jimmy Smith, director general, ILRI, at the 6th Global Feed and Food Congress, Bangkok, Thailand, 11-13 March 2019

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The future of farming and food

  1. 1. The future of farming and food Jimmy Smith, director general, International Livestock Research Institute 6th Global Feed and Food Congress Bangkok, Thailand 11-13 March 2019
  2. 2. Key messages • Increases in population, urbanization and income mostly happening in emerging and developing economies • Corresponding rise in demand for animal-source foods of all types • Implications are the demand for feed will also increase in same regions • To be ready as a feed sector means: • Addressing demand • Along with sustainable development • Recognizing the role and opportunities to transform small and medium livestock enterprises • Which represent new and different opportunities for the feed sector
  3. 3. Global trends impacting the livestock sector
  4. 4. Population growth likely to stabilize around 2100?
  5. 5. Most population growth in Africa 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 2000 2100 Oceania Northern America L.America Caribbean Europe Africa Asia
  6. 6. Asia and Africa forecast to have highest GDP growth
  7. 7. By 2050 over two-thirds of the world will live in cities
  8. 8. What does this mean for livestock demand?
  9. 9. Demand for animal source foods is influenced by GDP per capita
  10. 10. Gains in meat consumption in developing countries outpace those of developed 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050 Millionmetrictonnes developing developed
  11. 11. 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome % growth in demand for livestock products to 2030 11 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome Estimates of the % growth in demand for animal source foods in different World regions, comparing 2005 and 2030. Estimates were developed using the IMPACT model, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI. Beef Pork Poultry Milk Increases not because of overconsumption! OECD average 2018 = 69 kg/capita SSA average 2018 = 10 kg/capita
  12. 12. What does this mean for feed demand?
  13. 13. Composition of the 6 billion tonnes of global feed dry matter (2010) Grass, leaves 46% Crop residues 19% Fodder crops 8% Oil seeds 5% By-products 5% Other non-edible 3% Grains 13% Other edible 1% Grass, leaves Crop residues Fodder crops Oil seeds By-products Other non-edible Grains Other edible
  14. 14. Global livestock feed intake (million tonnes/year, 2010) 14 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Grazing Mixed Feedlots Grazing Mixed Feedlots Cattle and buffalo Small ruminants Poultry Pigs 0 50 100 150 200 250 Grazing Mixed Grazing Mixed 0 50 100 150 200 250 Backyard Layers Broilers Backyard Layers Broilers 0 50 100 150 200 250 Backyard Intermediate Industrial Backyard Intermediate Industrial Non-OECD Non-OECD Non-OECD Non-OECD OECD OECD OECD OECD human edible human inedible Note the scale!
  15. 15. Demand for feed – greatest in non-OECD and for human inedible materials 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2010 OECD 2010 non OECD 2025 OECD 2025 non OECD Feed demand for meat (cattle, buffaloes, small ruminants, poultry, pigs) Million tonnes human edible human inedibe
  16. 16. Are we ready? Key issues to consider?
  17. 17. To be ready…………… Respond to demand • Demand for animal source food will continue to grow rapidly • Most of that increase in demand is in emerging and developing economies • In these countries most animal source foods are currently provided by small farms Do so sustainably • The world is increasingly concerned about sustainable, healthy diets • Recognizing and using the diversity of livestock production now and in the future is essential for all aspects of sustainable development • Feed is a key interface between animal source foods and the environment (45% global emissions from livestock are feed production and processing)
  18. 18. Not just meeting demand: Sustainable Development Goals • Livestock contribute to all 17 of the SDGs and directly to at least 8 of the goals • Negative press about, and low investments in, livestock development jeopardize Agenda 2030
  19. 19. • Livestock contribute to all 17 of the SDGs and directly to at least 8 of the goals • Negative press about, and low investments in, livestock development jeopardize Agenda 2030 Not just meeting demand: Sustainable Development Goals
  20. 20. Meeting demand in emerging and developing economies Importing livestock products Importing livestock industrial production know-how Transforming smallholder livestock systems
  21. 21. Importing livestock products 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 USDmillions USA CentralAm SEAsia SSAfr NAfr Asia Estimates of beef imports  Less emissions per unit product  (some) improved access to livestock foods  Reduction of waste livestock products (eg turkey tails)  Displace small enterprises  Environmental, welfare, waste challenges  Food safety (transport)  Opportunity cost of foreign exchange
  22. 22. OECD-FAO estimates of feed imports (residues and wastes from food; prepared fodder)
  23. 23. OECD-FAO estimates of feed imports (residues and wastes from food; prepared fodder)
  24. 24. Importing industrial know-how  Less emissions per unit product  Markets for inputs and services  New jobs  Improved access to livestock foods  Displace small enterprises  Disease and welfare challenges  Energy demands  Waste hazards  Food-feed competition  Likely to require feed imports 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 world 2000world 2050 Africa, middle east 2000 Africa, middle east 2050 Asia 2000 Asia 2050 Monogastric production by system smallholder industrial Almost 20% remains smallholder Biggest change
  25. 25. In reality: the starting point Proportion of livestock-derived foods produced by small farms in 2010 Source: Options for the Livestock Sector in Developing and Emerging Economies to 2030 and Beyond. World Economic Forum White Paper January 2019
  26. 26. Transforming smallholders  Win-win: improve productivity, mitigate environment, generate livelihood (and wider development) opportunities  Economic growth  Opportunities for circular bioeconomy  High emissions per unit product  Low production efficiency  Food safety Provides food and nutritional security BUT overconsumption can cause obesity Powers economic development (livestock is 40% agGDP) BUT equitable development can be a challenge Improves human health (essential during first 1000 days) BUT animal-human/emerging diseases and unsafe foods need to be addressed Enhances the environment BUT pollution, land/water degradation, GHG emissions and biodiversity losses must be greatly reduced
  27. 27. The central role of feed in transforming the smallholder livestock sector • Up to 70% of the cost of production is for feed • Feed is key to mitigate GHG emissions o Quality and enteric emissions o Productivity and emissions per unit product o Feed production and sourcing • Opportunities to address feed quality and quantity without competing with food o Genetic enhancement of residue quality o Use of by-products and waste • New business models for feed preparation and provision
  28. 28. Feed is key to mitigate GHG emissions: The win-win feed opportunity in developing countries Emission intensity and milk yield Big opportunity! • Feed contributes at least 25% of the solution to improving productivity • Improved feed also means less GHG from enteric fermentation • This change is possible without a full switch to concentrates
  29. 29. Opportunities to address feed quality and quantity without competing with food From environmental hazard to high quality feed 50 million metric tonnes/annum cassava peel in Africa could generate over 15 million tonnes feed Example: transforming (cassava) waste by products
  30. 30. Opportunities to address feed quality and quantity without competing with food  Variation in residue quality without compromising grain yield  Variation is sufficient to produce significant productivity results and price differences  Easy to assess using NIRS = easy to incorporate into crop breeding and selection 70% of dairy feed in India is crop residues Example: incorporate feed parameters into crop breeding 3 5 3 6 3 7 3 8 3 9 4 0 4 1 4 2 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 6 4 7 4 8 4 9 5 0 5 1 5 2 5 3 5 4 5 5 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 4 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 5 0 0 0 5 5 0 0 6 0 0 0 In v itro o rg a n ic m a tte r d ig e s tib ility (IV O M D ; % ) Grainyield(kg/ha) r= 0 .1 3 ; P = 0 .0 4 ; N = 2 4 4 Stover digestibility and grain yield for sorghum cultivars
  31. 31. Opportunities to address feed quality and quantity without competing with food Example: Leveraging 2nd generation biofuel technologies Steam explosion treatment Ammonia fibre expansion (AFEX) 2-chemical combination treatment 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 8 2 0 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 0 3 2 3 4 3 6 3 8 4 0 4 2 4 4 4 6 W e e k s o f e x p e rim e n ta tio n OMI(g/kgLW) T M R w ith 2 C C tre a te d rice s tra w T M R w ith ste a m tre a te d rice s tra w T M R w ith u n tre a te d rice stra w l x = 3 4 .1 x = 3 9 .9 x = 28.3 + 3 .9 2 k g L W G + 6 .1 2 k g L W G + 1 .6 6 k g L W G R e s p o n s e o f s h e e p fe d to ta l m ix e d ra tio n s c o n ta in in g 7 0 % o f u n tre a te d , 2 C C T tre a te d a n d s te a m tre a te d ric e s tra w ( Unpublished ILRI-IICT data)
  32. 32. Feed business opportunities in emerging and developing economies • New markets: • adapted forages • storage technologies • Local feed sector development: • use of by products • novel feeds • Sales and business franchises adapted to smallholders
  33. 33. Future feed demand: opportunities to grasp • At least 2 billion tonnes more feed needed by 2050 • Almost all demand in developing and emerging economies • Foresight and modelling to target demand and investment opportunities • Develop crop breeding for better by product quality – systematic, applications of genomics • Pilot and take to scale use of spin off technologies • Exploit novel feed resources (eg insects, algae) • Ensure feed based strategies also combat climate change • Develop forage seed systems (some locations)
  34. 34. Key messages • Increases in population, urbanization and income mostly happening in emerging and developing economies • Corresponding rise in demand for animal-source foods of all types • Implications are the demand for feed will also increase in same regions • To be ready as a feed sector means: • Addressing demand • Along with sustainable development • Recognizing the role and opportunities to transform small and medium livestock enterprises • Which represent new and different opportunities for the feed sector
  35. 35. Grain use for feed, food and biofuel (000 tonnes) (OECD prediction based on trends) 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 2000000 Developed 2018 Developed 2022 Developed 2027 Developing 2018 Developing 2022 Developing 2027 Grain use for feed, food and biofuel (Grain = wheat, maize, other coarse grains, rice, distillers dry grain, soy) Feed Food Biofuel
  36. 36. Grain use for feed (000 tonnes) 0.00 100,000.00 200,000.00 300,000.00 400,000.00 500,000.00 600,000.00 700,000.00 Developed 2018 Developed 2022 Developed 2027 Developing 2018 Developing 2022 Developing 2027 Chart Title Wheat Maize Other coarse Rice Distillers dry Soy
  37. 37. This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence. better lives through livestock ilri.org ILRI thanks all donors and organizations which globally support its work through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund

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