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Livestock headwinds:Help or hindrance to sustainable development?

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Presented by Jimmy Smith, director general, ILRI, at the Borlaug Summer Institute at the Purdue Center for Global Food Security, 5 June 2018

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Livestock headwinds:Help or hindrance to sustainable development?

  1. 1. Livestock headwinds: Help or hindrance to sustainable development? Jimmy Smith, Director General International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) Borlaug Summer Institute at thePurdue Center for Global Food Security 5 June 2018
  2. 2. Key messages Globally, livestock is the fastest growing, most valuable and most controversial agricultural subsector. Meeting the rising demand for milk, meat and eggs in lower income countries is both a challenge and an opportunity—a big opportunity—for sustainable development. Livestock enterprises worldwide contribute to every one of the 17 of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals—and directly to 8 of them.
  3. 3. GLOBAL OVERVIEW of the LIVESTOCK SECTOR
  4. 4. On average, animal-source foods make up 5 of the top 10 global commodity values 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Rice, paddy Milk, whole fresh cow Meat, pig Maize Wheat Meat, chicken Meat, cattle Potatoes Eggs, hen, in shell Sugar cane Current million USD (average values 2005–2014; animal-source foods: USD825 billion)
  5. 5. 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome Demand for livestock products in lower income regions is growing rapidly to 2000–2030 (%) 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome 0 50 100 150 200 250 E.AsiaPacific China SouthAsia SSA Highincome Estimates of the % growth in demand for animal-source foods in different world regions, 2005 vs 2030. Source: Estimates were developed using the IMPACT model, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI. Beef Pork Poultry Milk
  6. 6. Meat consumption gains in developing countries are greatly outpacing those of developed 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050 Millionmetrictonnes developing developed These increases are not due to overconsumption by the poor. E.g., in 2016, average meat consumption was 8 times more in the EU than in Africa: EU = 69 kg per person | SSA = 8 kg per person
  7. 7. 8% 57% 10% 10% 15% Africa Asia N.America Europe RoW On any given day, the world has more than 29 billion head of poultry, pigs, cattle, buffalo, sheep and goats poultry birds pigs cattle and buffalo sheep and goats 4% 58%9% 19% 10% Africa Asia N.America Europe RoW 20% 40%6% 7% 27% Africa Asia N.America Europe RoW 34% 49% 0% 7% 10% Africa Asia N.America Europe RoW
  8. 8. There is great potential for increasing efficiencies where demand for livestock is growing fastest 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 5 10 15 20 25 Africa Asia Europe Northern America RoW No.animals(millions) Production(milliontonnes) Beef and buffalo meat (all animals included, even those raised solely for dairy) production (million tonnes) no. animals (million)
  9. 9. Diverging production levels of animal-source foods in high- versus low- and middle-income countriesProduction(millionsoftonnes) LMICs Year HICs
  10. 10. Livestock build both global and national economies • The global livestock sector on average makes up 40% of agricultural gross domestic product (GDP). • In developing countries, livestock contributions to agricultural GDP varies greatly, from 15–80%— and is growing. • It’s estimated that the market value of Africa’s animal- source foods will grow to some USD151 billion by 2050. • Varied activities all along the world’s numerous livestock value chains provide uncommonly large numbers of jobs. Source: Herrero et al. 2014
  11. 11. The persistent livestock funding challenge: ODA disbursements to developing countries (USD million) 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ODA Agric Livestock
  12. 12. The percentage of ODA disbursements to livestock (green) vs agriculture (red) is negligible 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 agric % ODA Livestock % ODA
  13. 13. LIVESTOCK’S CONTRIBUTIONS TO SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
  14. 14. Agenda 2030’s Sustainable Development Goals Livestock contribute to all 17 of the SDGs.
  15. 15. Agenda 2030’s Sustainable Development Goals Livestock contribute directly to 8 of the goals.
  16. 16. FOOD AND NUTRITIONAL SECURITY LIVELIHOODS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH HUMAN AND ANIMAL HEALTH 4 major livestock pathways exist for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals CLIMATE AND NATURALRESOURCES
  17. 17. PATHWAY 1: Food and Nutritional Security
  18. 18. Animal products provide 40% of global daily protein supply (18% of total kcal) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1961 2013 1961 2013 1961 2013 1961 2013 1961 2013 Daily protein (g/capita/day) protein animal products Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania
  19. 19. Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today Hungry people stunted children insufficient nutrients overweight/obese balanced diets Healthcare for obesity economic cost: $2 trillion 11% of GNP lost annually in Africa and Asia from poor nutrition Less than one third well fed and nourished Meat consumption average 2016 EU = 69 kg/capita SSA = 8 kg/capita
  20. 20. Animal-source foods are critical for both physical and cognitive growth • Globally, 156 million young children are stunted. • Milk, meat and eggs provide key nutrients (vitamins A, B12, choline, iron, zinc) in highly bioavailable forms for humans. • Eggs and animal milk—among ‘nature’s first foods’—are especially critical for addressing nutrient deficiencies in undernourished people • New evidence from Ecuador shows that eating just one egg a day can reduce stunting among in 6–9 month-old babies. Animal-source foods are critical for human health, especially for new mothers and young children
  21. 21. Nutrition in the first 1000 days of life Nutritionists are generating growing evidence that it is impossible for babies to achieve adequate nutrition in the first 1000 days of life without access to animal-source foods. Nutrition in the first 1000 days of life
  22. 22. ILRI livestock research on food and nutritional security • ILRI works to increase the productivity of livestock in low-income countries—e.g., through better feeds, breeds and health—to greatly augment food supplies. • ILRI works to better nourish as well as feed poor people through livestock-derived foods. • ILRI promotes ‘nutrition- sensitive livestock interventions’ to increase the availability, affordability, access and use of animal- source foods. • A new ILRI study recommends ring-fencing access to milk, meat and eggs for new mothers and children in their first 1000 days of life.
  23. 23. PATHWAY 2: Livelihoods and Economic Growth
  24. 24. Livestock livelihoods • 70% of the world’s rural poor rely greatly on livestock for their livelihoods. • Of the >600M poor livestock keepers in the world, two-thirds are rural women. • >100M landless people keep livestock. • For the poor, up to 40% of benefits from livestock keeping are non-market and intangible—mostly insurance and financing. • Most livestock products in developing countries are sold ‘informally’ and locally, with their production, processing and sale creating many jobs all along the value chain. Livestock provide livelihoods
  25. 25. Various sources: BMGF, FAO, ILRI Smallholders still dominate livestock production in many countries Region (definition of ‘smallholder’) % production by smallholder livestock farms Beef Chicken meat Sheep/goat meat Milk Pork Eggs East Africa 60-90 (≤ 6 milking animals) Bangladesh (< 3ha land) 65 77 78 65 96 77 India (< 2ha land) 75 92 92 69 most 71 Vietnam (small scale) 90 65 80 70 Philippines (backyard) 85 41 99 44 64 25
  26. 26. Demand for livestock commodities in developing economies will be met—the question is how Scenario #1 Meeting livestock demand by importing livestock products Scenario #2 Meeting livestock demand by importing livestock industrial production know-how Scenario #3 Meeting livestock demand by transforming smallholder livestock systems Demand for livestock commodities in developing economies will be met—the question is how
  27. 27. ILRI livestock research on livelihoods and economic growth • ILRI produces evidence to guide livestock investment and related policy decisions in and for developing countries. • ILRI uses integrated strategies to improve the performance of smallholder livestock value chains. • ILRI generates gender- equitable livestock options for better lives of women and men alike. • ILRI evidence for an Ethiopian Livestock Master Plan has informed USD150M new livestock investments. • 25 ILRI-supported dairy enterprises in India’s Uttarakhand benefit >5,000 women farmers, increasing their milk supplies by 300%. • Women in 4 African countries have access to superior chick- en breeds developed by ILRI.
  28. 28. PATHWAY 3: Human and Animal Health
  29. 29. Big opportunities exist for livestock-health to address antimicrobial resistance (AMR) By following a 3R approach to rational drug use: • Reduce overuse of antimicrobials via policy, regulatory and market incentives. • Replace antimicrobials with livestock vaccines and disease-resistant livestock breeds wherever possible. • Refine practices in animal husbandry and biosecurity. By ensuring essential partnerships and investments • Collaboration among both countries and the health, livestock and environment sectors. • WHO-OIE-FAO Global Action Plan on AMR. • An annual investment of USD9 billion will generate USD10–27 trillion in global benefits (2017–2050).
  30. 30. 13 zoonoses sicken 2.4 billion people, kill 2.2 million people and affect more than 1 in 7 livestock each year Controlling (zoonotic) livestock diseases stops their transmission to humans
  31. 31. Big opportunities exist to reduce the threat of pandemic disease events via livestock interventions • Better animal disease surveillance, ‘One-Health’ and ‘herd health’ could save billions of dollars by stopping disease outbreaks in animals rather than people. • It’s estimated that a global investment of USD25 billion over 10 years in One Health work would generate benefits worth at least USD125 billion.
  32. 32. • Animal-source foods are an important part of the diets of the poor. • The most nutritious animal-source foods are also the riskiest. • Enhancing traditional food processing is an overlooked opportunity for providing better nutrition, health, income and gender equity for poor people. Food safety
  33. 33. ILRI livestock research on human and animal health • ILRI models are improving herd health & livestock productivity. • ILRI products are improving food safety in the informal markets of developing countries. • ILRI tools are helping disease control agents stop zoonotic diseases and their human pandemics. • 1.8M African cattle have been protected against lethal East Coast fever by an ILRI-supported vaccine, which is greatly raising milk yields and disposable incomes. • ILRI training of milk processors and sellers in India’s Assam state has made dairy products much safer for one million people. • An ILRI decision-support tool for Rift Valley fever protects 50 million people in East Africa from infection.
  34. 34. PATHWAY 4: Climate and Natural Resources
  35. 35. Intensity of current greenhouse gas emissions generated in livestock production (Herrero et al., 2014)
  36. 36. Production of the greenhouse gas methane falls as animal productivity rises
  37. 37. Meeting the rising livestock demand through improved livestock production and efficiency • Create productivity-efficiency win-wins  The US reduced its carbon footprint per unit of milk by 63% over 60 years by improving cow productivity.  South Asia’s dairy sector has similar potential to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions—by 38%. • Obtain accurate livestock greenhouse gas emission figures  Support developing-country-led solutions to climate change as specified in their nationally appropriate mitigation actions. • Make more use of ‘new science’  Develop ‘low carbon’ cows, e.g. by modifying their rumen. • Support livestock’s essential role in a robust bio-economy  Make optimal and balanced use of biomass.
  38. 38. Competition for land and grains? Maybe not! Inedible by humans 86% Could be eaten by humans 14% 6 billion tonnes dry feed Feed production 10% Grassland that could be converted for crops 14% Pastures/rangelands - not suitable for crops 27% Crop agriculture 49% 5 billion ha global agricultural area Latest for 1 kg boneless meat: 2.8kg human-edible food for ruminants 3.2kg human-edible food for monogastrics
  39. 39. ILRI livestock research on climate and natural resources • ILRI enhances people’s adaptation to climate change in ways that also mitigate climate change. • ILRI-generated tools and options help people to intensify their small-scale livestock production in sustainable ways. • Work across ILRI helps people and communities to use livestock assets to build their resilience to shocks. • ILRI research on livestock greenhouse gas emissions in Kenya is helping developing- world governments to refine their climate change mitigation strategies. • 170,000 farmers in Zimbabwe benefitted from an ILRI project improving livestock feed, crop- livestock integration & markets. • ILRI’s index-based livestock insurance in Kenya and Ethiopia is helping >10,000 pastoralists better cope with drought.
  40. 40. Key messages Globally, livestock is the fastest growing, most valuable and most controversial agricultural subsector. Meeting the rising demand for milk, meat and eggs in lower income countries is both a challenge and an opportunity—a big opportunity—for sustainable development. Livestock enterprises worldwide contribute to every one of the 17 of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals—and directly to 8 of them.
  41. 41. A FINAL WORD
  42. 42. Welcome to ILRI! I hope my talk has helped to address some of the myths about livestock. I hope that you consider a career in livestock research. Like Norman Borlaug, you can make a big difference by joining CGIAR. And you will always be welcome by ILRI staff throughout the world. Karibuni!
  43. 43. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI. better lives through livestock ilri.org Thank you for your attention!
  44. 44. Great potential exists for making efficiency gains where demand for livestock foods is increasing most 0 500 1,000 0 20 40 Africa Asia Europe Northern America RoW Beef and buffalo meat (all animals included, even for dairy) production (million tonnes) no. animals (million) - 500 1,000 - 50 100 Africa Asia Europe Northern America RoW Pig meat production (million tonnes) no. animals (million) - 10,000 20,000 - 50 Africa Asia Europe Northern America RoW Poultry meat (all poultry birds included, even for eggs) production (million tonnes) no. animals (million) - 500 1,000 1,500 - 5 10 Africa Asia Europe Northern America RoW Sheep and goat meat production (million tonnes) no. animals (million)
  45. 45. Provides food and nutritional security BUT overconsumption can cause obesity Powers economic development BUT equitable development can be a challenge Improves human health BUT animal-human/emerging diseases and unsafe foods need to be addressed Enhances the environment BUT pollution, land/water degradation, GHG emissions and biodiversity losses must be greatly reduced Opportunities and challenges in the livestock sector
  46. 46. Improved food and nutrition security for health Improved natural resource systems and ecosystem services Reduced poverty ILRI’s mandate ILRI’s mission is to improve food and nutritional security and to reduce poverty in developing countries through research for efficient, safe and sustainable use of livestock — ensuring better lives through livestock.
  47. 47. CGIAR on the ground: 15 research centres | more than 70 countries
  48. 48. ILRI in CGIAR research programs (‘CRPs’) *PIM = Policies, Institutions and Markets **WLE = Water, Land and Ecosystems ILRI is also a member of the cross-cutting gender platform 4 Global Integrating programs Excellence in Breeding * ** Grain legumes and dryland cereals
  49. 49. ILRI livestock research: Solutions for food, nutrition, growth, environment, health Mitigating climate change, enhancing resilience and increasing livestock productivity Sustainable Livestock Systems Taking livestock solutions to scale for inclusive development Impact at Scale Delivering solutions for livestock, zoonotic and foodborne diseases Animal and Human Health Efficient livestock production driving inclusive growth and employment Policies, Institutions & Livelihoods (including gender) Improving genetics for better productivity and profitability Livestock Genetics Accelerating Africa’s agricultural development through biosciences BecA-ILRI hub Better nutrition for improved animal productivity Feed and Forage Development Capacity Development | Communications | Knowledge Management
  50. 50. ILRI Offices Main campuses: Nairobi, Kenya and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Offices in 14 other countries ILRI offices
  51. 51. ILRI resources 2018 • Staff: 630+ • Budget: about US$82 million • Senior scientists from over 30 countries • One third of ILRI staff are women • Main campuses in Kenya and Ethiopia, and offices in 14 other countries around the world
  52. 52. Developing capacity to undertake research  Fellowships  Internships  Training courses  Institutional development  Alumni-led communities of practice In a typical year: • 70 research fellows • 150 graduate (MSc., PhD) fellows • 50 interns • 1200 short course trainees • >50 journal papers by fellows
  53. 53. Partners are essential for research, impacts, going to scale Sphere of interest Multiple benefits at scale Livestock contribute to SDGs (in country/region/global) Sphere of influence Outcomes [changes in knowledge, skills, attitudes] resulting from uptake of solutions by identified stakeholders Sphere of control Application of livestock-based solutions (technical, policy, institutional, etc) Private sector Development agencies Advanced research National research Governments NEW Multi- laterals

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