Presented by J. Tsoro Maiketso and Masedi Motswapong at the Conference on Policies for Competitive Smallholder Livestock Production, Gaborone, Botswana, 4-6 March 2015

1. J. Tsoro Maiketso
Masedi Motswapong
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Conference on Policies for Competitive Smallholder Livestock Production
Gaborone, Botswana, 4-6 March 2015

2. Outline
1. Introduction
2. Trade trends
3. Objectives of the Paper
4. Methods
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3. Introduction
 Although agriculture’s contribution to GDP has declined,
it is still an important source of livelihood, especially for
the rural households
 Livestock is the main agriculture activity
 Beef industry is the backbone of the rural economy
(SACU Trade Policy Review, 2009)
 Beef is the largest agricultural commodity export
 Are there opportunities to;
 Increase exports?
 Diversify exports?
 Diversify markets?
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4. Objectives
 Discuss the measures (policy and
legal provisions) affecting trade in
livestock and livestock products
 Analyse the determinants of
Botswana’s exports of livestock and
livestock products
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5. Exports of Fresh or chilled boneless bovine meat:
main markets (BWP millions)
1.
5
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
United Kingdom South Africa Germany Reunion Greece

6. Exports of Fresh or chilled boneless bovine meat:
emerging markets (BWP millions)
1.
6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Netherlands Angola Swaziland Namibia Zimbabwe

7. Exports of Frozen boneless bovine meat, main
markets (BWP millions)
1.
7
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
South Africa Germany Greece United Kingdom Netherlands

8. Exports of Frozen boneless bovine meat, emerging
markets (BWP millions)
1.
8
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Swaziland Mozambique Namibia Angola DRC Zimbabwe Antarctica

9. Methods
 Review of measures affecting trade
 BMC Act [Chapter 74:04]; Export
monopoly?
 Control of Livestock Industry Act
[Chapter 36:01]; Restrictions on exports;
bans, levies, licensing etc
 Diseases of Animals Act [Chapter 37:01];
Diseases of animals and the role of SPS
measures
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10. Gravity model
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In its general formation, the gravity equation is specified as
follows;
𝑋𝑖𝑗 = 𝐺𝑆𝑖 𝑀𝑗 ∅𝑖𝑗 ……………………………………………………………….…(1)
where 𝑋𝑖𝑗 = total exports from county i to country j
𝑀𝑗 = the importing county’s GDP or per capita GDP
𝑆𝑖 = exporter specific factors (i.e. exporter’s GDP)
∅𝑖𝑗 =distance between countries i and j
𝐺 = a constant

11. Model cont’d
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Taking natural logs of equation 1 yields the following estimation
ln 𝑋𝑖𝑗 = ln 𝐺 + ln 𝑆𝑖 +𝑙𝑛𝑀𝑗 + 𝑙𝑛∅𝑖𝑗 ……………………………………. (2)
More specifically equation 2 can be expressed as
ln 𝑋𝑖𝑗 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑙𝑛𝑌𝑖 + 𝛽2 𝑙𝑛𝑌𝑗 + 𝛽3 𝑙𝑛𝐷𝑖𝑗 + 𝜖𝑖𝑗 ……………………. (3)
where 𝑌 denotes GDP and 𝐷 denotes distance, however other
variables can be included such as exchange rates and any other
variable that captures trade costs

12. Data Sources
 The study will use data from Statistics Botswana and
where possible other data sourced from, Euro stat,
World Bank
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