Presented by Dolapo Enahoro (ILRI) at the international conference on Integrated Systems Research for Sustainable Intensification in Smallholder Agriculture, Ibadan, Nigeria, 3-6 March 2015.

1. Foresight modeling to guide sustainable intensification
of smallholder systems
Dolapo Enahoro
Agricultural Economist, ILRI
International Conference on Integrated Systems
International Institute for Tropical Agriculture, Ibadan, Nigeria
March 3 - 6, 2015

2. Road Map
 Background to GFSF project
 Approach to quantitative modeling in
GFSF project
 Some results and relevance to sustainable
intensification of agricultural systems
 Limitations of the global modeling
framework
 Links to farm level approaches and
introduction of BioSight project
 Discussion

3. Background to CGIAR foresight analysis project
 Growth in human population, rising
incomes, natural resource degradation,
and Climate Change pose challenges to
global food security
 Integrated modeling tools useful to
assess the challenges and technology,
policy and other options needed
 The Global Futures and Strategic
Foresight (GFSF) project provides a
platform of foresight analysis useful to
research, donor and policy communities
 12 participating CG centers, led by IFPRI

4. GFSF approach to quantitative modeling
System of linked simulation models of global agriculture
• IMPACT multi-country, multi-market economic model
• Water model (hydrology, water basin management, crop water stress)
• Crop simulation models (DSSAT);
• Livestock, Fish modules
Long-run ex ante scenario analysis
• Demand, supply and trade of agricultural commodities
• Technology, investment, policy options
• Climate Change effects and adaptation strategies
Global economic assessments of Promising Technologies
• High yield, drought , heat tolerance traits in virtual crop varieties
• Breed, feed and animal health solutions to livestock yield gaps

5. Projections for Agricultural Commodities
IMPACT projections to 2050
(Rosegrant et al.,):
• Expansion in demand for meat,
dairy, cereals, livestock feeds
• Higher prices of major
agricultural commodities
Livestock systems characterization
(Herrero et al.,):
• Significant (growing?) yield gaps
• Mixed, industrial systems growing
faster than pastoral
• Implications for biophysical and
socio-economic balances and
trade-offs

6. Results from Analysis of Promising Technologies
New virtual crops under a drier
future scenario (Robinson et al.,):
• Climate Change (CC) impacts are
negative under baseline scenario
• All PTs have beneficial effects on
crop yields in the CC scenario
• The beneficial effects strong for
maize, potato, groundnut
• Implications for livestock-
oriented systems (not tested)
• Global effects minimal in line
with assumptions on adoption
• Expanded (testing of) adoption of
adaptation strategies important

7. Relevance to Sustainable Intensification and
Smallholder Agriculture
Foresight Assessments useful in:
 discussion on pathways to food security in the future
 bridging local and global dynamics e.g., through the improved
disaggregation plus international trade features of the models
 testing the roles and ex ante impacts of candidate technologies,
investments, policies
 Virtual cultivars assessed under PT platform directly applicable to smallholder
agriculture in the selected countries and regions
 assessing systems and regions for growth potential and response to
shocks e.g., through improved production system characterization
 some trade-off assessment relevant at the macro-scale
• regional competition for biomass as food, feed, energy stock
• natural resource issues related to intensification
• economic benefits to consumers and producers

8. Limitations of the global modeling framework
Generally:
• Expected loss of technical detail on production processes
• Dichotomy between theory and empirics can be more marked
• Data availability, consistency and aggregation issues may be more
pronounced; resources and coordination typically more involving
Specific to model applicability:
• Focus is on international trade and relevant commodities
• Joint (production and consumption) decision-making characteristic of
many smallholder systems not captured
• Important crop-livestock interactions, production-environment
linkages not captured
• Gender dimensions largely difficult to capture

9. Improving capacity of the modeling framework
Ongoing
 Model and data validation including using micro/meso data
 Expanded country, region and commodity sets
 Enhanced supply-side specification to better reflect
heterogeneity (e.g., of livestock production systems)
Proposed
 Strengthen links to methodologies and tools better able to
make use of micro-data (example, BioSight project)
 Adapt agronomic modeling tools used to simulate virtual
crops so they can better capture intensification strategies
(especially w.r.t. crop-livestock linkages)

10. BioSight Project on Sustainable Intensification
• Funded by CGIAR research program on Policies, Institutes and Markets
• Combines biophysical and economic analysis to directly address key
synergies and trade-offs of alternative ag intensification strategies
• Links methodologies addressing intensification of crop and livestock
production systems and links with environment impacts
• Uses household-specific micro-data (from AfricaRISING or other);
• Quantitative analysis set-up allows for modular linkage of production
response to household consumption & economic behavior
• Scope of analysis: farm-level mostly, with possibilities to aggregate up
• Plan to expand to include aquaculture & agro-forestry prodn systems
• Focus is on the short-to-medium term
• Partnering with CG (and non-CG) analysts to create actionable policy
recommendations around sustainable agricultural intensification

11. Discussion
 What can global foresight analysis contribute to the research for
impact agenda on sustainable intensification of agriculture?
 What can it not contribute?
 What role is there in the research for impact portfolio on Sustainable
Intensification and Smallholder Agriculture, for a platform like the
Global Futures and Strategic Foresights project?

12. Global Futures and Strategic Foresights Project is supported by:
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
CGIAR research program on Climate Change, Agriculture and
Food Security (CCAFS)
CGIAR program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM)
In Collaboration with:
The University of Florida; national research systems (various)
Acknowledgements

13. Thank You!
GFSF Project is implemented by:
CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA, ICRISAT, ICRAF, IITA,
IFPRI, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, Worldfish

14. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
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