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Global trends in pharma market and its impact on supply chain

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Auf dem 33. Deutschen Logistik-Kongress, der vom 19. bis 21. Oktober in Berlin stattfand, präsentierte Dr. Frank Wartenberg, President Central Europe QuintilesIMS, Trends im globalen Pharma-Markt und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Supply Chain.
Hier finden Sie Auszüge dieser Präsentation.

Beachten Sie in diesem Zusammenhang auch unser Whitepaper zum Thema Parallelhandel mit Arzneimitteln - in Deutsch und Englisch: http://www.imshealth.de/de_DE/about-us/News-and-Events/Publikationen/reports-whitepapers/whitepaper-parallelhandel-parallel-trade

Publicado en: Atención sanitaria
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Global trends in pharma market and its impact on supply chain

  1. 1. Copyright © 2016 QuintilesIMS. All rights reserved. Trends in the Global Pharma-Market and its Impact on the Supply Chain Dr. Frank Wartenberg President Central Europe October, 20th, 2016
  2. 2. 1 Top line growth forecast at 4-7% CAGR to 2020 (in constant US$) Pharmerging growth declines to single digits © 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg) Developed Markets CAGR 2016-2020 US 6%-9% Japan (-1)%-2% Germany 3%-6% UK* 4%-7% Italy 2%-5% France (-2)%-1% Spain 2%-5% Canada 3%-6% Developed 4%-7% Pharmerging Markets CAGR 2016-20 LCUS$ China 5%-8% Brazil 7%-10% India 10%-13% Russia 6%-9% Turkey 12%-15% Mexico 2%-5% Pharmerging LCUS$ 6%-9% Pharmerging US$ 4%-7% Global Sales and Market Growth At par with region CAGR Lower than region CAGR Higher than region CAGR *Subject to clawback 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Growth Sales(BnLCUS$) Global sales Developed growth Pharmerging growth Source: IMS Market Prognosis March 2016; at ex-manufacturer price levels, not including rebates and discounts. Contains Audited + Unaudited data; Sept 2015 forecasts used for all countries outside of top 52
  3. 3. 2 35% 32% 25% 21% 34% 41% 39% 43% 37% 65% 68% 75% 79% 66% 59% 61% 57% 63%FR ES IT DE UK RU JP CA US 15% 2% 13% -2% 10% 2% 11% 11% 14% 2% 11% 0% 11% 1% 10% -2% 5% -3% © 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg) Over time growth in specialty markets out-performed traditional markets in terms of value… Specialty Traditional Average specialty share: 34% Specialty Traditional 5 year CAGR (’10-’15)2015 value share specialty vs. traditional in TOP 5 EU + focus countries Source: IMS Health, MIDAS, MAT Q4 2015
  4. 4. 3 …. and are expected to remain the main growth driver in Europe till 2020 Share of Absolute Growth 2015-2020 and 2020 Sales by Region © 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg) 93% 7% Traditional 2020 Sales Specialty 2020 Sales 93% 7% Traditional Growth 2015-20 Specialty Growth 2015-20 66% 34% 64% 36% 94% 6% 93% 7% 60% 40% 24% 76% 82% 18% 79% 21% LATAM LC$ 20Mrd Growth North America LC$ 152Mrd Growth Europe LC$ 42Mrd Growth AFME LC$ 21Mrd Growth Asia LC$ 88Mrd Growth Source: IMS Health Market Prognosis September 2015; at ex-manufacturer price levels, not including rebates and discounts. Contains Audited + Unaudited data; IHII analysis
  5. 5. 4© 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg) At the same time, wholesalers loosing ground amongst European countries 78% 76% 73% 62% 59% 57% 53% 50% 47% 42% 35% 19% 13% 26% 33% 36% 36% 45% 33% 50% 58% 58% 5% 7% 7% 6% 17% 12% DK CZ BE HU 1% DE PL 3% AT ES 2% FR IT UK 1% Direct retailDirect HospitalTraditional FLW Delta WHS 2015 vs 2011 Q4/2015 value share by channel in TOP 5 EU + focus countries Traditional Full Line Wholesalers Direct sales to retail Direct sales to hospitals Source: IMS Health, total market, shares are based on value, Q4 2015, direct shares from local affiliates +3% -4% -2% -1% -4% -5% -5% -4% -9% -7% -11%
  6. 6. 5© 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg) Specialty products require a special handling leading to a rise in new distribution models Distribution Preparation Administration • Many specialty products need refrigeration or freezing • Often requires maintaining cold chain distribution during the whole delivery process • Specialty products can require compounding of individual ingredients in an exact strength and dosage form tailored to the patient’s need • Many specialty products are self- administered injectable • Requires patient training to administer • Support to achieve adherence needed Source: ASHP Specialty Pharmacy Resource Guide, available at: http://www.ashp.org/menu/PracticePolicy/ResourceCenters/Specialty-Pharmacy-Resource Rise of Homecare and specialty pharmacies • “Total service” to patient • Aseptic services (e.g. oncology) • Compliance programs/ patient support • Elimination of indirect payer costs
  7. 7. 7© 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg) Typically specialty products are high price products with simultaneously low volumes 100.0% 80.0% 0.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 2015 $142.4 Bn 61.7% 7.8% 11.3% 7.7% 10.2% 16.8% 11.3% 2010 $146.2 Bn 73.2% EU 5 – Concentration of product sales volume in SU bn US$ Source: IMS Health, MIDAS MAT Q4 2015, US$ and SU All othersProducts 51-100Products 11-50Top 10 products 8.0% 98.0% 100.0% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.8% 1.9% 0.6% 2010 409.9 Bn 95.4% 2015 411.1 Bn 94.7% EU 5 – Concentration of product sales in bn US$
  8. 8. 8 HUMIRA ENBREL GLIVEC Mark up Price per pack € WHS mark up Price per pack € WHS mark up Price per pack € WHS mark up AUSTRIA €23.74 fixed mark-up 975 23.7 858 23.7 2,705 23.7 BELGIUM €2.30 + 0.9% 951 10.9 918 10.6 2,284 22.9 FRANCE 6.68% for first €450 (with a minimum mark-up of 0.30€) 0% above €450 829 30.1 732 30.1 1,737 30.1 GERMANY Fixed fee of €0.70 plus 3.15% mark-up to a limit of €37.80 on the percentage mark-up element. 3,631 38.5 3,164 38.5 5,331 38.5 SPAIN €7.54 where ex-MNF price excl sales tax is >€91.63 N/A 845 7.54 1.184 7.54 © 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg) They have a large impact on WHS margins – manufacturers try to keep those by direct sales Why direct sales? • Ability to control discounting • Ability to receive information about the dispenser • Eliminate wholesaler exporting • Manage distribution costs Source: IMS Health
  9. 9. 9© 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg) Wholesalers offer pre-wholesaling carrying out warehousing & logistic for manufacturers Wholesalers Patients Pharmacies Self-dispensing doctors Manufacturers Hospitals Classic distribution system for pharmaceuticals with pre-wholesalers Source: IMS Health Characteristics • Manufacturers outsource the warehousing and logistic to pharmacies, self-dispensing doctors and hospitals to so called pre-wholesalers • Wholesalers often offer pre-wholesaling services Pre-Wholesalers
  10. 10. 10© 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg) Parallel trade is a huge threat for specialty products due to different price levels in the EU European annual parallel trade Size Import markets context Source: IMS MIDAS and internal database, import markets: DEU, GBR, NLD, Nordics and IRL, All sales at ex-MNF level. €5.2bn (EU 8)Size - 4% PI + 5% Non-PI growth + 4% Total market growth Growth 9% PI (8 main import markets only) 3% across EU28 Share 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 MAT 06'14 MAT 06'15 MAT 06'16 €PIsales(Bn) Specialist Primary Care ~60% + 2% - 4% + 2%- 4% - 7%+ 6%
  11. 11. 11© 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg) The traditional dispensing and distribution model is changing… Wholesalers Patients Pharmacies Self-dispensing doctors Manufacturers Hospitals Classic distribution system for pharmaceuticals Source: IMS Health Trends: Manufacturers • Aim to control the supply chain (reduce distribution costs – increase margin, control exports) Pharmacies • Discounts driven (mainly generics and PI) • Trend towards dispensing fees Wholesalers • Parallel Export important in several markets • Offer pre-wholesaling to participate in direct sales business New market players • Homecare and Specialty pharmacies
  12. 12. 12© 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg) … to a highly complex environment Wholesalers Patients Pharmacies Self-dispensing doctors Manufacturers Hospitals Parallel trader Pre-Wholesalers Mail-order Specialized pharmacies Source: IMS Health Pre-wholesaling Direct sales Parallel trade New distribution channels
  13. 13. 13© 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg) Counterfeits are a high threat leading to another big challenge for distributing pharmaceuticals Inside the fake Viagra factory Source: The Telegraph “Inside the fake Viagra factory” (23 Aug 2005) Which one is the counterfeit?
  14. 14. 14 Politicians take actions and continue efforts to highly control the pharmaceutical supply chain Introduction of Falsified Medicines Directive © 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg) Objective: Protection of patients from falsified medicines in the legal distribution chain Content: Pan-European system to verify the authenticity of medicinal products Scope: All Rx-bound products); OTC-products cannot be subject to authentication Due date: Implementation in all countries by Q1/2019, Non – compliance puts sales at risk!!! Additional tasks and new costs for the pharmaceutical supply chain Source: EU “Falsified Medicines”, ESM “A European Medicines Verification System “
  15. 15. 15© 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg) Key Insights to Take Away Growth in the pharmaceutical market mainly comes from specialty care1 Specialty products are typically high cost products with low volumes and require a specific handling in distribution, preparation and administration 2 Manufacturers seek to fully tap high margins for those products and keep control over the whole distribution process via direct sales 3 Wholesalers react to this development by expanding their business in offering manufactures pre- wholesaling services 4 Big threat of counterfeits leads to even stricter regulations (Falsified Medicine Directive) of the pharmaceutical supply chain in the next years 5
  16. 16. 16 Please contact me for more information Dr. Frank Wartenberg President Central Europe frank.wartenberg@quintilesims.com +49 (0) 69 6604-4315 Follow me on Twitter: @FrankWartenberg © 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg)
  17. 17. 17 © 2016, IMS HEALTH GmbH & Co. OHG Alle Rechte vorbehalten. Die Informationen dürfen weder ganz noch teilweise ohne vorherige ausdrückliche Erlaubnis von IMS HEALTH GmbH & Co. OHG vervielfältigt, gespeichert, weiterverarbeitet und in keiner Weise zugänglich gemacht werden. Die gegebenenfalls im Zusammenhang mit Daten verwendeten Begriffe „Patient, Arzt, Arztpraxis, Verordner oder Apotheke“ bezeichnen keine personenbezogenen, sondern ausschließlich (nach § 3 Abs. 6 Bundesdatenschutzgesetz) anonyme Informationen. IMS stellt durch den Einsatz modernster Technologien und Verfahren sicher, dass seine Dienstleistungen, unabhängig davon wie die Daten untereinander verknüpft werden, den Datenschutzbestimmungen entsprechen. © 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg)
  18. 18. 18 © 2016, IMS HEALTH GmbH & Co. OHG All rights reserved. The information may not be duplicated, stored, further processed, nor be made accessible in whole or in part to any third party without the prior express written consent of IMS HEALTH. In connection with data/figures used terms, such as „patient, doctor, medical practice, prescriber or pharmacy”, do not designate any personal data but exclusively anonymous information (in accordance with § 3 Abs. 6 “Bundesdatenschutzgesetz” – German Federal Data Protection Act) IMS employs high sophisticated technologies and methods which ensure all its Information Services to meet the applicable data-protection requirements, regardless the way data are combined with one another. © 2016, QuintilesIMS – Dr. Frank Wartenberg (Twitter: @FrankWartenberg)

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