The document discusses the future of European security in a globalized world. It outlines three potential scenarios for Europe's future: 1) fragmentation and failure leading to economic depression, 2) further integration and fiscal union making Europe a powerful global actor, and 3) "muddling through" with some crisis management but growing anti-European sentiment. Major challenges ahead include defense budget cuts, NATO burden sharing, the future of US commitment to Europe, and potential "wild cards" like conflicts drawing Europe into conflict.
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Managing European Security in a Globalized World: What is Its Future?
1. Managing European Security in
a Globalised World: What
Future?
16 October 2012
Ambassador Dr Fred Tanner
Director, Geneva Centre for Security Policy
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2. Outline
1. Geneva Centre for Security Policy
2. Europe in the World
3. Europe's Security Environment
4. Europe needs to be “secure, united and
democratic”
5. Europe's Future – 3 Scenarios
6. European Security Institutions - Major
Challenges Ahead
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3. Geneva Centre for Security Policy
• Foundation with international membership (to date 44
member states and the Canton of Geneva)
• Founded 1995 as Swiss contribution to PfP
• Training: Assisting current and future leaders to
translate knowledge into action
• 3 Principal Courses (ITC, ETC, NISC), 40 short courses/year
• Academic Year 2011/2012: 791 participants from 112 nations
• Research and dialogue in the field of peace and
international security
• Recognised platform for public discussions
• Intercultural dialogue and building bridges
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4. Europe in the World
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5. Marginalisation of Europe
• Power shifts from Atlantic to Pacific
• Europe used to be the focus of world attention
during the Cold War
• “ Rise of the rest” (emerging powers such as
China)
• Europe is facing recession and sovereign debt
crises
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6. Economic Growth Rates
Source: Data from World Bank and IMF, April 2012
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12. Europe’s Security Environment
Europe is embedded in a dynamic and complex
global environment characterized by:
• Emergence of new powerful states and power shifts in
the international structure
• Europe’ s role as a “civilian power”
• Diversification of the spectrum of international actors
with a rise of non-state actors
• Major technological advancements (including laser
weapons, UVAs, cyberwarfare, social media)
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13. European Threat Assessment
Potential threat % of people who
consider it to be serious
Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons 70
Al-Qaeda type Terrorism 72
Global Climate Change 55
Financial „Meltdown“ 51
Resource Scarcity 49
Cultural / Religious Conflicts 43
Overpopulation and Migration 33
Source: Gallup poll „Europeans on Global Security“, December 2010
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15. Europe needs to be “secure, united and
democratic” (Hilary Clinton, Munich 2012)
• Conflicts in Europe’s neighbourhood (e.g.
between Turkey and Syria)
• Cuts in military spending due to economic
crisis (since 2008 Greece: 26%, Spain 18%,
Italy 16%)
• Crisis of multilaterism (G 20, 4 European
countries, plus EU)
• Relations with Russia
• Need to transform and demilitarise strategic
relations between the US/NATO and Russia
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16. Europe needs to be “secure, united and
democratic” (Hilary Clinton, Munich 2012)
• Growing “enlargement fatigue” (countries
preparing to join the EU: BiH, Croatia, FYRM,
Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia, Iceland and
Turkey; 2004 with ten new member states
largest enlargement so far)
• Continuous euroscepticism (falling trust in EU
institutions, image problems)
• Territorial issues still not settled (Europe’s
“frozen conflicts”)
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17. Europe’s “Frozen Conflicts”
• Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia
and Abkhazia re-escalated in 2008
• Division of Cyprus has been frozen since
more than 40 years
• Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-
Karabakh territory
• Kosovo and Serbia over Kosovo’s
independence
• Moldova over Transnistria breakaway
region
• Catalonia, Scotland
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18. Europe needs to be “secure, united and
democratic” (Hilary Clinton, Munich 2012)
• EU played a very important role for the promotion
of democracy after the Cold War (especially
through enlargements, but also in trade relations)
• Democratisation not linear, danger of regression
• Continuous efforts include, the EU’s “Eastern
Partnership” to enhance relations and promote
democracy in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus,
Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine
• EU’s engagement with the Arab transition
countries
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19. Europe’s Future – Scenarios (1)
C. Stelzenmuller, F. Heisbourg
Europe’s fragmentation and failure
• No implosion, but slow decline, economic
depression in Europe and globally
• Departure of Greece from Eurozone, eventually
collapse of Eurozone
• EU still exists but recession, more as customs
union and less as single market
• Return of trade barriers
• Re-nationalisation of Europe: Germany seeks
export markets in Asia
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20. Europe’s Future – Scenarios (2)
C. Stelzenmuller, F. Heisbourg
Further integration (Federal big bang)
• Marginalisation can only be avoided by creating a
strong union, fiscal union, federal taxation goes with
political and constitutional unity
• EU would emerge as a powerful actor on the global
stage
• “Federalise” as few powers as possible (Germany)
vs. Europeanisation of debt (Italy) – role of the UK?
• NATO as future umbrella of European defence
• Europe without UK, future candidates loose
perspective of short or mid-term membership
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21. Europe’s Future - Scenarios (3)
C. Stelzenmuller, F. Heisbourg
“Reculer pour mieux sauter”, muddling
through, “drifting” (Heisbourg)
• Crisis management, no time for strategy
• Eurozone saved, some doses of federalism
(European Stability Mechanism), anti-European
sentiment will radicalise and grow among the
younger generations hard hit by unemployment
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24. NATO: Preparing for the “Eurodämmerung”
•Major cuts of defence budgets across the board
•Fair sharing of burdens of common security
•NATO: A “service provider” instead of a “security
community”?
•Alliance coherence-“Collective defenders” vs.
“Expeditionaries”
•US future commitment to Europe – about to pivot?
•Smart defence : limits of pooling and sharing
… The way forward lies not in spending more but in
spending better“
A.F. Rasmussen, FA 2011
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25. Wild cards
• Russia
• Missile defence, Post-Soviet space, energy strategy,
nuclear weapons
• Turkey
• Emerging power
• Fixation on US rather than EU
• “Hot spots” (Iran, Syria, Sahel, South Asia,
Korea) could draw Europe (NATO) into a
conflict
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26. Reports and Projects
• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2012:
Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative (EASI).
• Francois Heisbourg 2012: In the Shadow of the Euro
Crisis, Survival, 54(4), 25-32.
• Constanze Stelzenmüller 2012: Europe on its Own.
How the Crisis-Ridden Continent will Respond to a
Decade of U.S. Retrenchment: Three Scenarios, The
Euro-Future Project, Paper Series, June 2012.
• IISS, The International Institute for Strategic Studies
2012: Strategic Survey 2012: The Annual Review of
World Affairs, Routledge.
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