Trends And Scenarios In Agricultural Development by Colin Chartres - - International Water Management Institute (IWMI)

1. Trends and Scenarios in Agricultural Development COLIN CHARTRES International Water Management Institute

6. WE ALREADY INHABIT A WATER SCARCE WORLD 1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

7. Most hungry and poor people live where water challenges pose a constraint to food production Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005) the semi-arid and arid tropics: 840 million malnourished people remaining

8. SUB-SAHARAN ECONOMIES ARE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON WATER AVAILABILITY e.g. Rainfall and GDP growth in Ethiopia

9. Burkina Faso: Relation between rainfall and cereal production

10. Meat China India USA Consumption and income 1961-2000 Milk China India USA

11. Water and land for biofuels now and 2030 irrigated Million ha Harvested area irrigated rain fed rain fed biofuels 2003 2030 400 800 1200 1600 biofuels irrigation irrigation directly from rain directly from rain Crop water consumption km 3 2000 4000 6000 8000 2003 2030

12. Water needs for biofuel production, but a word of caution ….. 2500 3800 China 200 2250 Brazil 300 1750 US 3500 4100 India Liters of Irrigation water liters of ET

13. Changes in world prices of feedstock crops and sugar by 2020 under two scenarios compared with baseline levels (%)

14. Source: WA Water Corporation. CLIMATE CHANGE: a big uncertainty INFLOWS INTO PERTH’s STORAGES 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1911 1917 1923 1929 1935 1941 1947 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2004 Total annual inflow (GL) Annual inflow 1911–1974 ( 338 GL ) 1975–1996 ( 177 GL ) 1997–2004 ( 115 GL )

16. Water for Food – 1 liter per calorie 2.5b more mouths means finding another 2500 - 5000 cubic km of water! 500 to 2,000 Liters of Evapotranspiration (ET) 1kg of Grain 5,000 to 15,000 Liters of ET Livestock products (meat, milk) 20 – 500 Liters of Water Daily Household Use 2 – 5 Liters of Water Daily Drinking Water Liters of Water

17. Sectoral water consumption is increasing due to increased demand Demand will double in the next 40 years

18. Increasing groundwater usage is a water time bomb

19. Biofuels: India: and in 2030 (WaterSim analysis by IWMI). Green solution with blue impacts! % of potentially utilizable water withdrawn for human purposes Water for food and feed today Future water for food, CA scenario Water for biofuels* *Assumes that 10% of gasoline demand is met by biofuels by 2030 No water scarcity Approaching water scarcity Water scarce 0% 60% 75% 100%

20. SOLUTIONS?

21. REVITALIZE IRRIGATION Irrigated Area Food price index World Bank lending for irrigation 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 320 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 Living Planet Index Freshwater Species How to avoid? ?

23. WHAT CAN WE DO?

25. Turn waste water into a valuable resource Public Health Farmer Laborer Consumer Wastewater irrigation Soil Fodder Ground water Livestock Milk (Meat) Rice Vegetables Short term and Long term health impacts

27. Demand continues to rise

28. THEN WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH WATER Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA Today CA Scenario Practices like today CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade