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Water

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Presented by IWMI DG Claudia Sadoff at a meeting on 'Smallholder Farmer Adaptation to Climate Change' on April 23, 2019, at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in Seattle, WA, USA.

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Water

  1. 1. Claudia Sadoff Director General International Water Management Institute April 23, 2019
  2. 2. WHAT DOES CLIMATE CHANGE LOOK LIKE TO A SMALL FARMER? Greater water variability and uncertainty • Rainy days decrease, precipitation intensity increases in tropical SSA1 • Monsoon likely to strengthen in South Asia2 Increased water scarcity in driest parts of SSA and SA • 1.1 billion, most in SA, EA and MENA, face serious water shortage3 More frequent and severe droughts and floods • Increase in droughts in West and Southern Africa4 • Significantly increased high flows expected in SA5 Impacts include: • Food insecurity and loss of livelihoods • Migration pressures • Farmers/pastoralist tensions • Farmer suicides • Violence against women6 • Intergenerational stunting7 1. Water storage and lift for irrigation 2. Water-related information for productivity & risks 3. Enabling environment of appropriate institutions, finance & supply chains Smallholder Adaptation Challenges in Water Priority Water Interventions for SHF Adaptation Sources: 1Déqué et al. (2017); 2Krishnan et al. (2019); 3Kummu et al. (2016); Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2018); 4Naumann et al. (2018); 5Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2018); 6Sekhri and Storeygard (2014); 7Damania et al (2017) Water is a key medium through which farmers will feel climate change, a ‘front line’ issue for adaptation
  3. 3. WATER STORAGE IS ESSENTIAL FOR SHF ADAPTATION As hydrology becomes more variable and less certain, water storage becomes more important Caveats on small reservoirs • Under the driest climate scenarios, small reservoirs perform marginally less well (< 4-8%)1 • Small reservoir tend to underperform due to weak institutions, sedimentation, poor site selection, inadequate maintenance2 Small reservoirs hold significant untapped potential in sub-Saharan Africa1 Sources: 1 Giordano et al.(2012); 2Saruchera and Jonathan Lautze (in press); 3Amarasinghe et al. (2016); 4Owusu et al. (2017) Manage aquifer recharge (MAR) is a promising storage alternative for smallholders Managed aquifer recharge can • Utilize rains, floods, treated wastewater • Replenish groundwater & enhance baseflows in rivers • Reduce saltwater intrusion & land subsidence Widespread suitability in Africa, dependent on3 • Landscape characteristics • Soil and aquifer properties • Availability of surface water 32% of Northern Ghana4 suitable for MAR Bhungroo MAR structure 369 million people reached $20 billion revenue annually 22 million hectares irrigated
  4. 4. GROUNDWATER CAN POTENTIALLY PROVIDE MORE RELIABLE WATER Groundwater delinks farmers’ welfare from the timing of the rains and is relatively under-developed in SSA Africa is water abundant, only 3% of renewable water resources are withdrawn for agriculture. About 4% of arable land is irrigated.1 Groundwater could enable a 20-fold extension of irrigated area in Africa2 the potential to increase sustainable irrigated agriculture from 2m to 40m ha In SSA, about 10% of irrigation water is groundwater. Globally, groundwater is about 40% of irrigation water, In India it is 60%, in Bangladesh 86%. 4 SSA has 25 times the renewable groundwater of South Asia relative to its irrigated area. South Asia has 3,100m3 renewable groundwater per hectare area under crop, SSA has 80,000m3/ha.3 Sources: 1 FAO (2011); 2Burney et al. (2013); 3Shah and Namara (2018); 4Giordano et al. (2012)
  5. 5. Asia’s widespread uptake of motorized pumps drove dramatic growth, still largely untapped in Africa In sub-Saharan Africa, motorized pumps could2 • Increased rice yields 70-300% with dry season irrigation • benefit 185 million people • increase net revenues by $22 bn/year Sources: 1Shah and Namara (2018); 2 Giordano et al. (2012); 3Lefore et al. (2019); 4Wani et al. (2009); Lefthand map - IWMI Irrigated Area Map Asia (2000-2010) and Africa (2010); Righthand map - Shah and Namara (2018). In South Asia, farmers installed more irrigation in the past 50 years than gov’t in the past 200 years1 Motorized pumps increase farmer incomes, diminish drudgery, promote gender parity, give more agency to farmers ■ Irrigated Single Crop ■ Irrigated Double Crop ■ Irrigated Triple/ Continuous Crop Rainfed Gravity flow Manual lift Motor pump Farmer investment in irrigation nil nil US $ 49 (15-155) US $ 1016 (350-2650) # of crops per year 1-2 1-2 3-5 3-9 Input intensification (US $/acre) 59 72 84 178 Value of output/acre ($) 405 414 398 1413 Value added/family worker ($) 319 325 307 1092 IWMI Buckets were used for water lifting in 60% of surveyed households in Tanzania, 40% in Ethiopia.3 In SSA, 95% of farmed land in rainfed.4 MOTORIZED PUMP IRRIGATION STRENGTHENS RESILIENCE & INCOMES ■ Rainfed Single ■ Rainfed Double Comparison of water lifting methods in nine SSA countries2
  6. 6. SOLAR PUMPS ARE SPREADING FAST (‘CELL PHONE’ OF IRRIGATION) Clean accessible energy, falling costs and the water-food-energy impact of solar contribute to its uptake Solar drops the marginal cost of lifting water to zero: a hazard for groundwater sustainability Sources: 1Government of India (2018); 2Lefore et al. (2019); 3Schmitter et al. (2018); Lefthand figure from Shah (2018) unpublished, an historical observation not data-based; Righthand figure from Closas et al. (2019 forthcoming). In Ethiopia, solar PV pumps could transform 18% (3.7m ha) of the country’s rainfed agricultural land and replace 11% of the current hydrocarbon fuel pumps3 Two-thirds of Africa’s rural areas are not linked to grids2 Solar can provide clean power off-grid for multiple uses In India, solar is spreading rapidly: ~4,000 in 2012; ~135,000 today; projected 2,750,000 by 2027 as a result of government scaling programs1 Make solar equitably accessible Make solar environmentally sustainable Solar irrigation for SHF Sustainable water resource management Irrigation management systems and efficiency Feasible outscaling Access to finance Access and adoption of approproiate technologies
  7. 7. ON-GRID AND OFF-GRID SOLAR BUSINESS MODELS Providing on-demand water access and non-agricultural income On-grid systems: Sell solar ‘as a crop’ to mitigate overexploitation of groundwater & enhance incomes1 Off-grid systems: Can provide energy access, food and livelihood security, access to water2 Benefits of the model • Reliable day-time energy for irrigation • Feed-in tariff for selling excess electricity to grid • Supplementary, counter-seasonal incomes for farmers • Diversified, cleaner power grids Sources: 1 Shah et al. (2018); 2 Otoo et al. (2018) Technical Design Benefits of the model • Reduced prohibitive upfront costs • Distribution of risk among scheme (government), lender and borrower • Tailored financing to farmers’ needs (e.g., repayment schedules)
  8. 8. DIGITAL INNOVATIONS DELIVER INFORMATION FOR ADAPTATION Increasing climate variability and uncertainty raise the value of climate-related advisories and forecasts Sources: 1 Naab et al. (2019); Geoscience Australia (2019). Advisories and warning to farmers to enhance food security and livelihoods under climate uncertainties Data-based irrigation advisories through mobile phones apps telling farmers when and how much water to apply to optimize yields and minimize crop failure Drought monitoring and early warning system combining local information on soil moisture with remote sensing and artificial intelligence Remediation will be needed as climate impacts grow, robust evidence for claims will be essential to create customer trust and ensure transparency and equity in compensation Insurance schemes require flood and drought damage assessments of crops quickly and reliably Integrated information platform for water planning, management and monitoring to manage more variable, scarce and contested water resources Data cube of geographical and geophysical attributes, upon which applications can be built to provide geo-spatially tailored information IoT, AI, Blockchain could help monitor usage, overexploitation, water quality, water rights, water productivity Water accounting estimations of sources, availability, and uses of water to enable better planning, allocation, monitor, enforcement & stewardship Digital innovations generally require contextualization, ground truthing and suitable dissemination pathways1
  9. 9. AN ENABLING ENVIRONMENT IS NEEDED FOR SHF ADAPTATION The institutions that manage water as well as policies regarding credit and technologies will affect SHFs options Institutions • Robust to frequent & severe droughts & floods • Strong integrated R&D programs and information systems • Secure water rights for SHFs (these are usually informal)1 Finance • Credit that is affordable, appropriate (i.e., longer than a single season) and accessible to women and men2 • Credit packages combined with insurance3 • Tax & import policies to promote adaption investments4 Supply chains5 • Access to technologies, complementary inputs, maintenance and repairs • Rental markets for pumps and other irrigation services Sources: 1 van Koppen, B.; Schreiner, B. (2018); 2Merrey and Lefore (2018); 3 Otoo et al. (2018); 4 Lefore et al. (2019); 5 Lefore et al. (2019).
  10. 10. TAKEAWAYS – INTERVENTIONS IN WATER TO SUPPORT SHF ADAPTATION Technologies to adapt to greater variability and scarcity Water storage small reservoirs and managed aquifer recharge Water lifting/irrigation motorized pumps, including solar Mindful of sustainability, cost & equity Information to adapt to changing climate regimes & extremes Digital extension services irrigation and crop advisories Enhanced forecasts & warnings including seasonal forecasts Remediation weather and crop based insurances Mindful of context, capacity & demand Enabling Environment to manage increasingly unpredictable & contested water Strengthened water resources management institutions to ensure availability, access, equity Access to credit, technologies & supply chains for SHFs to invest in adaptation Research and development that is supported, scaled up and scaled out Mindful of political & economic feasibility Water is a primary medium through which climate change will impact SHFs. Water management is therefore a good place to take early actions for adaptation – interventions that provide basic needs now and resilience for the future.
  11. 11. Thank You
  12. 12. Amarasinghe, U. A.; Muthuwatta, L.; Smakhtin, V.; Surinaidu, L.; Natarajan, R.; Chinnasamy, P.; Kakumanu, K. R.; Prathapar, S. A.; Jain, S. K.; Ghosh, N. C.; Singh, S.; Sharma, A.; Jain, S. K.; Kumar, S.; Goel, M. K. 2016. Reviving the Ganges water machine: potential and challenges to meet increasing water demand in the Ganges River Basin. IWMI Research Report 167. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 42p. Burney, J.A., Naylor, R.L., Postel, S.L. 2013. The case for distributed irrigation as a development priority in sub-Saharan Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110(31): 12513-12517. Closas, A, Lefore, N., Schmitter, P. 2019 (forthcoming) Making solar irrigation sustainable for small-scale agriculture and the environment. Closas, A., Rap, E., 2017. Solar-based groundwater pumping for irrigation: Sustainability, policies, and limitations. Energy Policy 104, 33-37. Damania, R., Desbureaux, S., Hyland, M., Islam, A., Moore, S., Rodella, A-S., Russ, J., and Zaveri, E. 2017. Uncharted Waters: The New Economics of Water Scarcity and Variability. Washington, DC: World Bank. Déqué et al. 2017. A multi-model climate response over tropical Africa at +2oC. Climate Services, 7, 87-95. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). 2011. The state of the world's land and water resources for food and agriculture (SOLAW) - Managing systems at risk. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; and London: Earthscan. Geoscience Australia. 2019. Geoscience Australia, Australian Government. https://www.ga.gov.au/. Giordano, M.; de Fraiture, C.; Weight, E.; van der Bliek, J. (Eds.). 2012. Water for wealth and food security: supporting farmer- driven investments in agricultural water management. Synthesis report of the AgWater Solutions Project. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). REFERENCES & FURTHER READING
  13. 13. Government of India, 2018. The 2017-18 Annual Report of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018. Impacts of 1.5oC global warming on natural and human systems, in Global Warming of 1.5oC. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways in the context of strengthening the global response to threat of climate change, sustainable Development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte et al. eds]. Cambridge University Press. Krishnan R. et al. 2019. Unravelling climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: rapid warming in the mountains and increasing extremes. In: Wester P., Mishra A., Mukherji A., Shrestha A. (eds) The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment. Springer, Cham. Kummu, M. et al. 2016. The world’s road to water scarcity: shortage and stress in the 20th century and pathways towards sustainability. Scientific Reports. 6(1), 38495. Lefore, N.; Giordano, M.; Ringler, C; and Barron, J. 2019. Sustainable and equitable growth in farmer-led irrigation in sub Saharan Africa: what will it take? Water Alternatives 12(1): 156-168. Merrey, D. J.;,Lefore, N. 2018. Improving the availability and effectiveness of rural and micro-finance for small-scale irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of lessons learned. IWMI Working Paper 185. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 46p. Naab, F.Z., Abubakari, Z., Ahmed, A., 2019. The role of climate services in agricultural productivity in Ghana: the perspectives of farmers and institutions. Climate Services 13, 24-32. Naumann et al. 2018. Global changes in drought conditions under different levels of warming. Geophysical Research Letters. REFERENCES (continued)
  14. 14. Otoo, M., Lefore, N., Schmitter, P., Barron, J., Gebregziabher, G. 2018. Business model scenarios and suitability: smallholder solar pump-based irrigation in Ethiopia. CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE). Colombo, Sri Lanka. Owusu, S., Mul, M.L., Ghansah, B., Osei-Owusu, P.K., Awotwe-Pratt, V., Kadyampakeni, D. 2017. Assessing land suitability for aquifer storage and recharge in northern Ghana using remote sensing and GIS multi-criteria decision analysis technique. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 3, 1383-1393. Saruchera D. and Lautze J. In press. Small reservoirs in Africa: a review and synthesis to strengthen future investment. IWMI working paper 189. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). Sheetal Sekhri, S., Storeygard, A. 2014. Dowry deaths: Response to weather variability in India. Journal of Development Economics 111 (2014) 212–223. Shah, T., Rajan, A., Rai, G.P., Verma, S., Durga, N. 2018. Solar pumps and South Asia’s energy-groundwater nexus: exploring implications and reimagining its future. Environmental Research Letters 13, 115003. Shah T. and Namara R. 2018. Accelerating smallholder irrigation development: what can sub-Saharan Africa learn from South Asia’s experience? Paper presented at the African Green Revolution Forum. September 5, 2018. Kigali, Rwanda. Schmitter, P., Kibret, K.S., Lefore, N. and Barron, J. 2018. Suitability mapping framework for solar photovoltaic pumps for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Applied geography, 94, 41-57. van Koppen, B.; Schreiner, B. 2018. A hybrid approach to decolonize formal water law in Africa. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 45p. (IWMI Research Report 173). Wani, S.P., Sreedevi, T.K., Rockström, J. and Ramakrishna, Y.S. 2009. Rainfed agriculture: unlocking the potential. In: Wani, S.P., Rockström, J., Owels, T. (eds) Rainfed agriculture: unlocking the potential. CAB Inernational, Wallingford, Oxon, UK. REFERENCES (continued)

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