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HKUST	
  Ins*tute	
  for	
  Emerging	
  Market	
  Studies	
  (IEMS)	
  
China	
  as	
  the	
  World’s	
  Technology	
  
Leader	
  
Naubahar	
  Sharif	
  
Associate	
  Professor,	
  Division	
  of	
  Social	
  Science,	
  HKUST,	
  	
  
and	
  Faculty	
  Associate	
  
China’s	
  Economic	
  Ascent	
  
•  Rapid	
  economic	
  growth	
  from	
  1979	
  onwards	
  
•  Obvious	
  compe**ve	
  advantages	
  (i.e.	
  
popula*on)	
  
•  Has	
  now	
  developed	
  into	
  a	
  leading	
  economic	
  
(poli*cal?,	
  military?)	
  superpower	
  
•  Story	
  of	
  China’s	
  economic	
  ascent	
  has	
  been	
  
widely	
  told,	
  heard	
  and	
  understood 	
  	
  
– .	
  .	
  .	
  But	
  how	
  about	
  the	
  story	
  of	
  China	
  as	
  a	
  
technological	
  superpower?	
  
1	
  
How	
  to	
  Measure	
  Leadership?	
  
•  Four	
  factors	
  comprise	
  ‘technology	
  leadership’	
  
– Research	
  and	
  development	
  (R&D)	
  intensity	
  
– R&D	
  personnel	
  
– Number	
  of	
  scien*fic	
  publica*ons	
  
– Number	
  of	
  patent	
  applica*ons	
  
2/50	
  
A	
  Snapshot	
  Look	
  at	
  the	
  Strength	
  of	
  
China’s	
  Innova*on	
  System	
  (1/3)	
  
•  Rate	
  of	
  spending	
  on	
  R&D	
  outpaces	
  overall	
  
economic	
  growth	
  
– In	
  2012,	
  China	
  spent	
  US$163	
  billion,	
  or	
  1.98%	
  of	
  
its	
  growing	
  GDP	
  on	
  R&D	
  
•  Placing	
  it	
  2nd	
  in	
  the	
  world,	
  only	
  to	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  	
  
•  With	
  3.2	
  million	
  R&D	
  personnel	
  in	
  2012,	
  China	
  
now	
  turns	
  out	
  the	
  largest	
  number	
  of	
  
undergraduate,	
  postgraduate,	
  and	
  doctoral	
  
students	
  in	
  science	
  and	
  engineering	
  in	
  the	
  
world	
  
3/50	
  
A	
  Snapshot	
  Look	
  at	
  the	
  Strength	
  of	
  
China’s	
  Innova*on	
  System	
  (2/3)	
  
•  Over	
  the	
  period	
  2001-­‐2011,	
  China	
  ranked	
  2nd	
  in	
  
the	
  world	
  in	
  research	
  output	
  as	
  measured	
  by	
  the	
  
number	
  of	
  papers	
  published	
  by	
  Chinese	
  scien*sts	
  
in	
  research	
  journals	
  
•  Ranked	
  7th—but	
  rising—in	
  terms	
  of	
  cita*ons	
  for	
  
papers	
  authored	
  by	
  Chinese	
  scien*sts	
  
•  In	
  2012,	
  China	
  trailed	
  only	
  the	
  United	
  States,	
  
Japan	
  and	
  Germany	
  in	
  patent	
  filings	
  under	
  the	
  
Patent	
  Coopera*on	
  Treaty	
  (PCT)	
  administered	
  by	
  
the	
  World	
  Intellectual	
  Property	
  Office	
  (WIPO)	
  
4/50	
  
A	
  Snapshot	
  Look	
  at	
  the	
  Strength	
  of	
  
China’s	
  Innova*on	
  System	
  (3/3)	
  
– In	
  2012,	
  two	
  large	
  telecommunica*ons	
  equipment	
  
manufacturers,	
  ZTE	
  and	
  Huawei	
  ranked	
  1st	
  and	
  3rd	
  
in	
  worldwide	
  ranking	
  of	
  top	
  PCT	
  applicants	
  
– At	
  the	
  U.S.	
  Patent	
  and	
  Trademark	
  Office	
  (USPTO),	
  
the	
  number	
  of	
  patent	
  applica*ons	
  origina*ng	
  in	
  
China	
  grew	
  18%	
  from	
  2009	
  to	
  2010	
  alone	
  
•  A	
  rate	
  matched	
  by	
  no	
  other	
  country	
  
5/50	
  
China’s	
  Technological	
  Ascent	
  Widely	
  
Ques*oned	
  (1/3)	
  
•  Despite	
  these	
  indicators,	
  there	
  exists	
  
considerable	
  skep*cism	
  over	
  China’s	
  capacity	
  
to	
  alain	
  global	
  technological	
  leadership	
  
– George	
  Gilboy,	
  a	
  research	
  affiliate	
  at	
  MIT	
  
•  Wrote	
  in	
  Foreign	
  Affairs,	
  in	
  2004,	
  that	
  ‘Chinese	
  firms	
  .	
  .	
  .	
  
forgo	
  investment	
  in	
  long-­‐term	
  technology	
  
development.	
  .	
  .	
  [and]	
  rely	
  heavily	
  on	
  imported	
  foreign	
  
technology	
  and	
  components’	
  
6/50	
  
China’s	
  Technological	
  Ascent	
  Widely	
  
Ques*oned	
  (2/3)	
  
– David	
  Shambaugh	
  of	
  George	
  Washington	
  
University	
  	
  
•  In	
  2012	
  iden*fied	
  ten	
  weaknesses	
  in	
  corporate	
  and	
  
human	
  resources	
  management	
  to	
  explain	
  why	
  Chinese	
  
companies	
  are	
  s*ll	
  taking	
  baby	
  steps	
  towards	
  parity	
  in	
  
global	
  business	
  
– Dan	
  Breznitz	
  and	
  Michael	
  Murphee,	
  professors	
  at	
  
the	
  Georgia	
  Ins*tute	
  of	
  Technology	
  
•  Argued	
  in	
  2011	
  that	
  China	
  has	
  selled	
  on	
  merely	
  
keeping	
  pace	
  with	
  technological	
  advances	
  elsewhere,	
  
pursuing	
  innova*on	
  only	
  in	
  later	
  !	
  in	
  less	
  
consequen*al	
  stages	
  of	
  the	
  produc*on	
  process	
  
7/50	
  
China’s	
  Technological	
  Ascent	
  Widely	
  
Ques*oned	
  (3/3)	
  
– Thomas	
  Friedman	
  (journalist,	
  columnist,	
  author)	
  	
  
•  Argued,	
  in	
  Sep	
  2012,	
  that	
  driving	
  economic	
  growth	
  
through	
  entrepreneurship	
  and	
  innova*on	
  depends	
  on	
  a	
  
culture	
  of	
  trust	
  !	
  observing	
  that	
  ‘China	
  has	
  a	
  huge	
  
trust	
  deficit’,	
  a	
  lingering	
  remnant	
  of	
  Maoism	
  
•  Aforemen*oned	
  skep*cism	
  overlooks	
  several	
  
important	
  factors	
  that	
  have	
  posi*oned	
  China	
  
to	
  compete	
  for	
  global	
  technological	
  leadership	
  
8/50	
  
China’s	
  Sources	
  of	
  Technological	
  
Advantage	
  	
  
•  Three	
  dis*nct	
  sources	
  of	
  compe**ve	
  
advantage	
  that	
  China	
  will	
  leverage	
  in	
  
developing	
  its	
  capacity	
  for	
  technological	
  
innova*on	
  
1.	
  Rapidly	
  growing,	
  large	
  domes*c	
  market	
  
2.	
  Autocra*c	
  system	
  of	
  governance	
  
3.	
  Globaliza*on	
  
9/50	
  
A	
  Brief	
  Look	
  at	
  Tech	
  Leadership	
  
Throughout	
  History	
  (1/6)	
  
•  Considering	
  the	
  period	
  from	
  the	
  Bri*sh	
  industrial	
  
revolu*on	
  onwards	
  .	
  .	
  .	
  	
  
•  .	
  .	
  .	
  Technology	
  has	
  been	
  leveraged	
  to	
  alain	
  
compe**veness,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  economic	
  and	
  military	
  
leadership	
  
•  Over	
  the	
  70-­‐year	
  period	
  of	
  the	
  Bri*sh	
  industrial	
  
revolu*on,	
  there	
  were	
  advances	
  made	
  in	
  the	
  
iron,	
  colon	
  and	
  steel	
  industries	
  
–  These	
  advances	
  acted	
  as	
  catalysts	
  for	
  further	
  
technological	
  change	
  in	
  associated	
  industries	
  	
  	
  
10	
  
A	
  Brief	
  Look	
  at	
  Tech	
  Leadership	
  
Throughout	
  History	
  (2/6)	
  
–  Technological	
  changes	
  led	
  to	
  social,	
  economic,	
  
poli*cal	
  and	
  social	
  changes	
  (and	
  vice	
  versa)	
  
•  By	
  the	
  end	
  of	
  the	
  industrial	
  revolu*on,	
  Britain	
  
had	
  developed	
  a	
  considerable	
  technological	
  lead	
  
over	
  na*ons	
  
–  Accomplishments	
  demonstrated	
  at	
  the	
  First	
  World’s	
  
Fair	
  in	
  London	
  (Crystal	
  Palace)	
  in	
  1851	
  	
  
•  Aqer	
  Britain,	
  Germany	
  began	
  to	
  industrialize	
  in	
  
Europe,	
  and	
  then	
  also	
  France	
  
–  Technology	
  transfer	
  played	
  an	
  important	
  role	
  
11	
  
A	
  Brief	
  Look	
  at	
  Tech	
  Leadership	
  
Throughout	
  History	
  (3/6)	
  
•  From	
  the	
  turn	
  of	
  the	
  19th	
  century	
  the	
  torch	
  of	
  
global	
  technological	
  leadership	
  shiqed	
  from	
  
Europe	
  to	
  USA	
  
•  America	
  is	
  the	
  global	
  technological	
  leader	
  today	
  	
  
–  !	
  But	
  being	
  threatened	
  by	
  China!	
  
•  By	
  the	
  First	
  World	
  War	
  America	
  firms—especially	
  
in	
  chemical	
  and	
  electronic	
  industries—had	
  
established	
  first-­‐class	
  industrial	
  R&D	
  labs	
  
–  These	
  labs	
  were	
  insulated	
  from	
  more	
  immediate	
  
corporate	
  pressures	
  to	
  solve	
  shop-­‐floor	
  problems	
  
•  Allowed	
  them	
  to	
  dedicate	
  more	
  *me	
  to	
  inven*on	
  
12/50	
  
A	
  Brief	
  Look	
  at	
  Tech	
  Leadership	
  
Throughout	
  History	
  (4/6)	
  
•  Post	
  World	
  War	
  II	
  American	
  dominance	
  was	
  due	
  
to	
  advanced	
  technology	
  
–  Rise	
  of	
  large	
  US	
  corpora*ons	
  noteworthy	
  as	
  they	
  
pioneered	
  mass	
  produc*on	
  techniques,	
  the	
  assembly	
  
line,	
  standardized	
  product	
  and	
  long	
  produc*on	
  run	
  
•  From	
  mid-­‐1900s	
  onwards,	
  large	
  US	
  corpora*ons	
  had	
  
developed	
  a	
  clear	
  technological	
  edge	
  in	
  global	
  produc*on	
  
and	
  trade	
  	
  
•  US	
  viewed	
  as	
  ‘leader’	
  and	
  other	
  countries	
  as	
  
‘followers’	
  in	
  the	
  “catching-­‐up	
  hypothesis”	
  
13/50	
  
A	
  Brief	
  Look	
  at	
  Tech	
  Leadership	
  
Throughout	
  History	
  (5/6)	
  
•  American	
  technological	
  leadership	
  has	
  not	
  remained	
  
uniformly	
  strong	
  throughout	
  the	
  20th	
  century	
  
•  Was	
  threatened	
  in	
  the	
  1980s	
  by	
  Japan	
  
•  Japan’s	
  focus	
  on	
  innova*on	
  and	
  
	
  technological	
  advance	
  propelled	
  	
  
	
  Japan	
  into	
  the	
  leadership	
  posi*on	
  within	
  the	
  Asian	
  
region	
  
•  Ini*al	
  explana*ons	
  to	
  describe	
  Japan’s	
  ascent	
  focused	
  
simplis*cally	
  on	
  copying,	
  imita*ng,	
  and	
  impor*ng	
  
foreign	
  technology	
  
–  With	
  passage	
  of	
  *me	
  this	
  explana*on	
  was	
  no	
  longer	
  
adequate	
  	
  
14/50	
  
A	
  Brief	
  Look	
  at	
  Tech	
  Leadership	
  
Throughout	
  History	
  (6/6)	
  
–  Gradually	
  became	
  clear	
  that	
  the	
  correct	
  explanatory	
  
factors	
  were:	
  higher	
  technological	
  sophis*ca*on	
  of	
  
new	
  products	
  and	
  processes,	
  shorter	
  lead	
  *mes,	
  rapid	
  
diffusion	
  of	
  new	
  technologies,	
  and	
  integra*on	
  of	
  R&D,	
  
produc*on,	
  and	
  technology	
  imports	
  at	
  firm	
  level	
  
•  Aqer	
  Japan,	
  smaller	
  countries	
  have	
  focused	
  their	
  
alempts	
  on	
  taking	
  a	
  ‘slice’	
  of	
  the	
  technological	
  
leadership	
  pie	
  (i.e.	
  Israel,	
  Sweden,	
  Denmark,	
  
Finland,	
  Korea,	
  Taiwan,	
  Singapore)	
  	
  
15/50	
  
China’s	
  Three	
  Compe**ve	
  Advantages	
  
•  In	
  order	
  to	
  alain	
  technological	
  leadership,	
  
China	
  has	
  three	
  dis*nct	
  sources	
  of	
  compe**ve	
  
advantage	
  (each	
  discussed	
  individually):	
  
– Market	
  size	
  
– Governmental	
  power	
  
– Globaliza*on	
  
16/50	
  
Growing	
  Large	
  Domes*c	
  Market	
  (1/6)	
  
•  Market	
  size	
  is	
  an	
  important	
  determinant	
  of	
  
innova*on	
  ac*vi*es	
  
–  Greater	
  the	
  demand,	
  greater	
  the	
  revenue	
  
–  More	
  efficient	
  the	
  produc*on	
  process,	
  greater	
  the	
  
aggregate	
  cost	
  savings	
  	
  
•  Implies	
  a	
  growing	
  market	
  with	
  growing	
  demand	
  
will	
  lead	
  to	
  increasing	
  returns	
  from	
  investment	
  
innova*on	
  
–  Companies	
  incen*vized	
  to	
  introduce	
  new	
  products	
  to	
  
reap	
  increasing	
  returns	
  
17/50	
  
Growing	
  Large	
  Domes*c	
  Market	
  (2/6)	
  
•  Following	
  World	
  War	
  II,	
  US	
  companies	
  also	
  
benefited	
  from	
  selling	
  to	
  the	
  world’s	
  largest	
  
domes*c	
  market	
  (the	
  US)	
  
–  These	
  US	
  firms	
  led	
  the	
  world	
  in	
  developing	
  and	
  
implemen*ng	
  leading-­‐edge	
  technologies,	
  and	
  claimed	
  
largest	
  worldwide	
  share	
  in	
  many	
  export	
  goods	
  
	
  !	
  These	
  developments	
  reflected	
  longstanding	
  
American	
  dominance	
  in	
  mass	
  produc*on	
  industries	
  –	
  
a	
  dominance	
  that	
  resulted	
  from	
  ready	
  access	
  to	
  
natural	
  resources	
  and	
  the	
  world’s	
  largest	
  domes*c	
  
market	
  
18/50	
  
Growing	
  Large	
  Domes*c	
  Market	
  (3/6)	
  
– Resource	
  and	
  capital	
  intensive	
  American	
  
manufacturing	
  firms	
  operated	
  on	
  a	
  much	
  larger	
  
scale	
  than	
  their	
  counterparts	
  elsewhere	
  
	
  !	
  Due	
  to	
  economies	
  of	
  scale	
  American	
  firms	
  
enjoyed,	
  innova*ons	
  from	
  Europe	
  were	
  developed	
  
and	
  brought	
  to	
  market	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  
-­‐  Similar	
  dynamics	
  will	
  play	
  out	
  in	
  the	
  massive	
  
Chinese	
  market	
  !	
  China	
  has	
  strengths	
  in	
  mass	
  
produc*on	
  (‘workshop	
  of	
  the	
  world’)	
  able	
  to	
  
adapt	
  Western	
  techniques	
  to	
  Chinese	
  condi*ons	
  
19/50	
  
Growing	
  Large	
  Domes*c	
  Market	
  (4/6)	
  
•  China’s	
  emergence	
  as	
  a	
  rapidly	
  growing	
  major	
  
market	
  offers	
  it	
  a	
  unique	
  advantage	
  for	
  
technological	
  advancement	
  
– The	
  likes	
  of	
  which	
  no	
  na*on	
  other	
  than	
  the	
  US	
  has	
  
hitherto	
  enjoyed	
  
•  Local	
  Chinese	
  firms	
  are	
  best	
  situated	
  to	
  sa*sfy	
  
the	
  singular	
  tastes	
  of	
  the	
  Chinese	
  market	
  
– In	
  terms	
  of	
  Chinese	
  consumers	
  expecta*ons	
  
regarding	
  price,	
  quality,	
  and	
  product	
  features	
  
20/50	
  
Growing	
  Large	
  Domes*c	
  Market	
  (5/6)	
  
•  Integra*on	
  of	
  mass	
  produc*on	
  strength	
  with	
  
the	
  world’s	
  second	
  largest	
  economy	
  has	
  led	
  
forecasters	
  at	
  Goldman	
  Sachs,	
  Standard	
  
Chartered	
  Bank,	
  the	
  Economist	
  to	
  predict	
  that	
  
the	
  Chinese	
  economy	
  will	
  be	
  twice	
  as	
  large	
  as	
  
the	
  US	
  economy	
  by	
  2030	
  
– Jus*n	
  Yifu	
  Lin	
  (former	
  chief	
  economist	
  of	
  the	
  
World	
  Bank)	
  predicted	
  that	
  by	
  2030,	
  100-­‐150	
  of	
  
the	
  largest	
  Fortune	
  500	
  companies	
  in	
  the	
  world	
  
will	
  be	
  Chinese	
  firms	
  
21/50	
  
Growing	
  Large	
  Domes*c	
  Market	
  (6/6)	
  
•  If	
  these	
  forecasts	
  prove	
  true,	
  capacity	
  of	
  
Chinese	
  firms	
  to	
  con*nuously	
  leverage	
  
advantage	
  of	
  their	
  large	
  home	
  market	
  to	
  
enhance	
  their	
  technological	
  compe**veness	
  
will	
  be	
  a	
  major	
  success	
  factor	
  
22/50	
  
China’s	
  Three	
  Compe**ve	
  Advantages	
  
– Governmental	
  power	
  
23/50	
  
Autocra*c	
  System	
  of	
  Governance	
  (1/9)	
  
•  On	
  the	
  way	
  to	
  becoming	
  global	
  technological	
  
leaders,	
  Chinese	
  companies	
  have	
  benefiled	
  
significantly	
  from	
  the	
  Chinese	
  government’s	
  
industrial	
  policy	
  
•  Chinese	
  government’s	
  industrial	
  policy	
  is	
  
unmatched	
  in	
  scale	
  and	
  strength	
  by	
  Western	
  
standards	
  
•  In	
  fact,	
  China	
  has	
  adopted	
  the	
  US	
  model	
  to	
  boost	
  
their	
  own	
  state-­‐backed	
  R&D	
  investments	
  
24/50	
  
Autocra*c	
  System	
  of	
  Governance	
  (2/9)	
  
•  Success	
  of	
  high-­‐tech	
  industries	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  in	
  the	
  
postwar	
  era	
  reflected	
  massive	
  private	
  and	
  public	
  
investments	
  in	
  R&D	
  and	
  scien*fic	
  and	
  technical	
  
educa*on	
  (made	
  aqer	
  World	
  War	
  II)	
  
•  Given	
  the	
  Chinese	
  autocra*c	
  system	
  of	
  
governance,	
  China	
  is	
  able	
  to	
  steer	
  Chinese	
  (state-­‐
owned)	
  and	
  private	
  companies	
  to	
  increase	
  their	
  
R&D	
  investments	
  
–  This	
  has	
  been	
  reflected	
  in	
  the	
  amount	
  of	
  money	
  spent	
  
on	
  R&D	
  in	
  China	
  	
  
25/50	
  
Autocra*c	
  System	
  of	
  Governance	
  (3/9)	
  
•  Use	
  of	
  industrial	
  policy	
  to	
  help	
  domes*c	
  
companies	
  upgrade	
  technological	
  capability	
  have	
  
their	
  roots	
  in	
  Hamiltonian	
  economic	
  philosophy	
  
!	
  Holds	
  that	
  a	
  big	
  country	
  needs	
  big	
  organiza*ons	
  
	
  to	
  succeed	
  and	
  that	
  the	
  federal	
  government	
  
	
  should	
  partner	
  with	
  private	
  enterprise	
  to	
   	
  finance	
  
scien*fic	
  research	
  and	
  provide	
  	
  	
  resources	
  and	
  
infrastructure	
  that	
  businesses	
  lack	
  
•  Under	
  this	
  Hamiltonian	
  approach,	
  American	
  
government	
  sponsored	
  projects	
  such	
  as	
  the	
  Erie	
  
Canal,	
  transcon*nental	
  railroad,	
  land-­‐grant	
  
universi*es,	
  network	
  of	
  airports	
  
26/50	
  
Autocra*c	
  System	
  of	
  Governance	
  (4/9)	
  
– Helped	
  create	
  within	
  the	
  US	
  a	
  huge	
  
interconnected	
  marketplace	
  	
  
•  Companies	
  such	
  as	
  Standard	
  Oil,	
  General	
  Motors,	
  US	
  
Steel,	
  General	
  Electric	
  and	
  Sears	
  Roebuck	
  prospered	
  
and	
  grew	
  
– US	
  government	
  and	
  military	
  led	
  the	
  way	
  in	
  
financing	
  innova*on	
  in	
  its	
  early	
  stages	
  
– Government-­‐financed	
  research	
  and	
  procurement	
  
fueled	
  industries	
  that	
  produced	
  hybrid	
  seed,	
  radar,	
  
synthe*c	
  rubber,	
  the	
  microchip,	
  GPS,	
  Internet,	
  etc.	
  
27/50	
  
Autocra*c	
  System	
  of	
  Governance	
  (5/9)	
  
– Helped	
  create	
  within	
  the	
  US	
  a	
  huge	
  
interconnected	
  marketplace	
  	
  
•  Companies	
  such	
  as	
  Standard	
  Oil,	
  General	
  Motors,	
  US	
  
Steel,	
  General	
  Electric	
  and	
  Sears	
  Roebuck	
  prospered	
  
and	
  grew	
  
– US	
  government	
  and	
  military	
  led	
  the	
  way	
  in	
  
financing	
  innova*on	
  in	
  its	
  early	
  stages	
  
– Government-­‐financed	
  research	
  and	
  procurement	
  
fueled	
  industries	
  that	
  produced	
  hybrid	
  seed,	
  radar,	
  
synthe*c	
  rubber,	
  the	
  microchip,	
  GPS,	
  Internet,	
  etc.	
  
28/50	
  
Autocra*c	
  System	
  of	
  Governance	
  (6/9)	
  
•  Most	
  of	
  the	
  centralized	
  power	
  that	
  enabled	
  China	
  
to	
  run	
  a	
  planned	
  economy	
  remains	
  in	
  place	
  
–  Government	
  is	
  able	
  to	
  play	
  a	
  significant	
  role	
  in	
  shaping	
  
increasingly	
  market-­‐oriented	
  ac*vi*es	
  
•  Chinese	
  government	
  has	
  more	
  policy	
  instruments	
  
at	
  its	
  disposal	
  than	
  do	
  its	
  Western	
  counterparts	
  
–  Enables	
  the	
  government	
  to	
  facilitate	
  technological	
  
learning	
  on	
  part	
  of	
  indigenous	
  firms	
  
29/50	
  
Autocra*c	
  System	
  of	
  Governance	
  (7/9)	
  
•  With	
  beneficial	
  policies,	
  Chinese	
  government	
  has	
  
bolstered	
  the	
  wind	
  turbine	
  industry,	
  and	
  
‘strategic	
  emerging	
  technologies’	
  which	
  include:	
  
environmental	
  technology;	
  telecommunica*ons;	
  
biotechnology;	
  advanced	
  manufacturing;	
  
renewable	
  energy;	
  advanced	
  material	
  and	
  green	
  
vehicles	
  
–  Beneficial	
  policies	
  include	
  large-­‐scale	
  government	
  
grants,	
  tax	
  concessions,	
  easy	
  access	
  to	
  bank	
  loans,	
  
policies	
  regarding	
  intellectual	
  property,	
  
standardiza*on,	
  etc.	
  
30/50	
  
Autocra*c	
  System	
  of	
  Governance	
  (8/9)	
  
•  China	
  is	
  the	
  2nd	
  largest	
  performer	
  of	
  R&D	
  
globally,	
  accoun*ng	
  for	
  12%	
  of	
  global	
  total	
  
– US	
  is	
  the	
  largest	
  performer,	
  with	
  31%	
  
•  The	
  pace	
  of	
  real	
  growth	
  in	
  China’s	
  overall	
  R&D	
  
expenditure	
  over	
  the	
  period	
  1999-­‐2009	
  has	
  
been	
  excep*onally	
  high,	
  at	
  20%	
  annually	
  
•  In	
  March	
  2006,	
  China	
  launched	
  its	
  ‘Na*onal	
  
Mid-­‐	
  and	
  Long-­‐Term	
  Science	
  and	
  Technology	
  
Development	
  Plan	
  for	
  2006-­‐2020’	
  
31/50	
  
Mid	
  to	
  Long-­‐Term	
  S	
  &	
  T	
  Development	
  
Plan,	
  2006-­‐2020	
  
•  A	
  plan	
  that	
  demonstrates	
  remarkable	
  foresight	
  
for	
  a	
  developing	
  country	
  
•  In	
  the	
  Plan,	
  the	
  R&D	
  expenditure	
  to	
  GDP	
  ra*o	
  is	
  
to	
  be	
  raised	
  to	
  2.5%	
  by	
  2020	
  
–  In	
  2012,	
  it	
  was	
  1.98%	
  
•  The	
  Plan	
  proposes	
  ‘indigenous	
  innova*on’	
  
–  Represents	
  the	
  Chinese	
  leadership’s	
  ambi*on	
  to	
  
sustain	
  economic	
  growth	
  through	
  indigenous	
  
innova*on	
  and	
  increased	
  government-­‐led	
  R&D	
  
investments	
  
32/50	
  
Autocra*c	
  System	
  of	
  Governance	
  (9/9)	
  
•  There	
  is	
  of	
  course	
  concern	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  and	
  
elsewhere	
  that	
  Beijing’s	
  visible	
  hand	
  is	
  giving	
  
China	
  an	
  unfair	
  advantage	
  because	
  China	
  is	
  
not	
  playing	
  fairly,	
  ‘by	
  the	
  rules	
  of	
  interna*onal	
  
trade’	
  
– This	
  too	
  is	
  a	
  symptom	
  of	
  the	
  CCP’s	
  style	
  of	
  
governance	
  (where	
  a	
  heavy	
  hand	
  combined	
  with	
  
secrecy	
  prevails)	
  	
  
33/50	
  
China’s	
  Three	
  Compe**ve	
  Advantages	
  
– Globaliza9on	
  
34/50	
  
Intensified	
  Forces	
  of	
  Globaliza*on	
  (1/9)	
  
•  In	
  a	
  globalized	
  era,	
  Chinese	
  companies	
  need	
  
not	
  develop	
  every	
  cuzng-­‐edge	
  technology	
  on	
  
their	
  own	
  
•  Rather,	
  they	
  can	
  undertake	
  mergers	
  and	
  
acquisi*ons	
  as	
  a	
  deliberate	
  strategy	
  for	
  
acquiring	
  advanced	
  technologies	
  owned	
  by	
  
foreign	
  firms	
  
35/50	
  
Intensified	
  Forces	
  of	
  Globaliza*on	
  (2/9)	
  
•  As	
  early	
  as	
  the	
  Tenth	
  Five-­‐Year	
  Plan	
  (2001-­‐2005),	
  
Chinese	
  government	
  unveiled	
  its	
  ‘go	
  global’	
  
strategy	
  to	
  encourage	
  Chinese	
  companies	
  to	
  
invest	
  abroad	
  
•  China’s	
  outward	
  foreign	
  direct	
  investment	
  (FDI)	
  
accelerated	
  aqer	
  2009	
  
–  In	
  2010,	
  China’s	
  outward	
  FDI	
  amounted	
  to	
  US$68.6	
  
billion,	
  ranking	
  it	
  5th	
  in	
  the	
  world	
  
•  Goal	
  of	
  	
  many	
  outward	
  FDI	
  projects	
  has	
  been	
  
acquisi*on	
  of	
  advanced	
  technology	
  !	
  some	
  
illustra*ve	
  examples:	
  
36/50	
  
Intensified	
  Forces	
  of	
  Globaliza*on	
  (3/9)	
  
•  Lenovo	
  Group	
  struck	
  two	
  deals	
  in	
  close	
  
succession	
  in	
  early	
  2014	
  
–  Jan:	
  Bought	
  IBM’s	
  low-­‐end	
  server	
  business	
  for	
  server	
  
business	
  for	
  US$2.3	
  billion	
  
–  Feb:	
  Bought	
  Google	
  Inc’s	
  Motorola	
  handset	
  division	
  
for	
  US$2.91	
  billion	
  
•  These	
  acquisi*ons	
  further	
  remodel	
  Lenovo	
  as	
  a	
  
force	
  in	
  mobile	
  devices	
  in	
  addi*on	
  to	
  data	
  	
  
–  Posi*ons	
  them	
  to	
  challenge	
  largest	
  global	
  tech	
  firms	
  
such	
  as	
  Apple	
  and	
  Samsung	
  
37/50	
  
Intensified	
  Forces	
  of	
  Globaliza*on	
  (4/9)	
  
•  Beijing	
  Automo*ve	
  Industry	
  Holding	
  Company	
  
Limited	
  (BAIC)	
  acquired	
  IPRs	
  affiliated	
  with	
  Saab	
  
vehicles	
  and	
  engines	
  (Swedish	
  car	
  manufacturer	
  
owned	
  by	
  General	
  Motors),	
  its	
  en*re	
  R&D	
  
facili*es,	
  quality	
  management	
  systems,	
  and	
  
supplier	
  development	
  and	
  management	
  systems	
  
in	
  Dec	
  2009	
  
–  BAIC’s	
  objec*ve	
  in	
  acquiring	
  Saab	
  was	
  to	
  integrate	
  
Saab’s	
  technology	
  into	
  its	
  future	
  R&D	
  opera*ons	
  to	
  
develop	
  an	
  indigenous	
  BAIC	
  vehicle	
  
•  First	
  indigenous	
  BAIC-­‐brand	
  vehicle	
  developed	
  based	
  on	
  the	
  
Saab	
  technology	
  was	
  launched	
  in	
  Sep	
  2014	
  
38/50	
  
Intensified	
  Forces	
  of	
  Globaliza*on	
  (5/9)	
  
•  Chinese	
  carmaker	
  Geely	
  completed	
  acquisi*on	
  of	
  
another	
  Swedish	
  automaker,	
  Volvo,	
  from	
  Ford	
  
motors	
  in	
  Aug	
  2010	
  
–  Geely	
  needed	
  Volvo’s	
  technology	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  improve	
  
quality	
  of	
  its	
  own	
  brand	
  of	
  cars	
  because	
  of	
  increasing	
  
local	
  compe**on	
  
–  Geely	
  requires	
  Volvo	
  engineers	
  to	
  help	
  it	
  improve	
  its	
  
engineering	
  capabili*es	
  	
  
–  Geely	
  owns	
  all	
  of	
  Volvo’s	
  key	
  technologies	
  and	
  IPRs	
  
and	
  also	
  has	
  the	
  right	
  to	
  use	
  the	
  IPR	
  
•  IPR	
  ownership	
  represents	
  the	
  core	
  value	
  of	
  this	
  acquisi*on	
  
39/50	
  
Intensified	
  Forces	
  of	
  Globaliza*on	
  (6/9)	
  
•  In	
  avia*on,	
  China	
  Avia*on	
  Industry	
  General	
  
Aircraq	
  (CAIGA)—largest	
  general	
  aircraq	
  
manufacturer	
  in	
  China—acquired	
  US-­‐based	
  
Cirrus	
  Aircraq	
  in	
  Jun	
  2011	
  
– By	
  acquiring	
  Cirrus,	
  CAIGA	
  will	
  complete	
  
development	
  of	
  a	
  new	
  single-­‐engine	
  ‘Vision’	
  jet	
  
40/50	
  
Intensified	
  Forces	
  of	
  Globaliza*on	
  (7/9)	
  
•  In	
  renewable	
  energy,	
  R&D	
  alliance	
  between	
  
China’s	
  Sinovel	
  and	
  US-­‐based	
  Windtec	
  in	
  2008	
  
allowing	
  Sinovel	
  to	
  produce	
  five-­‐	
  and	
  six-­‐	
  
megawal	
  turbines	
  in	
  2010	
  and	
  2011	
  
•  Chinese	
  company	
  Goldwind	
  acquired	
  70%	
  
ownership	
  of	
  German-­‐based	
  Vensys	
  Energy	
  in	
  
2008	
  allowing	
  it	
  access	
  to	
  the	
  world’s	
  leading	
  
technology	
  and	
  professionals	
  in	
  area	
  of	
  
permanent	
  magnet	
  direct-­‐drive	
  wind	
  turbines	
  
41/50	
  
Intensified	
  Forces	
  of	
  Globaliza*on	
  (8/9)	
  
•  In	
  machinery,	
  Sany	
  Group—China’s	
  largest	
  
construc*on	
  equipment	
  manufacturer—
acquired	
  German	
  company	
  Putzmeister	
  
(manufacturer	
  of	
  high-­‐tech	
  concrete	
  pumps)	
  
in	
  Jan	
  2012	
  
– For	
  its	
  cuzng	
  edge	
  technology	
  
42/50	
  
Intensified	
  Forces	
  of	
  Globaliza*on	
  (9/9)	
  
•  In	
  energy,	
  CNOOC	
  acquired	
  Canadian	
  oil	
  
producer	
  Nexen	
  for	
  US$15	
  billion	
  in	
  Feb	
  2013	
  
and	
  Sinopec	
  purchased	
  49%	
  of	
  the	
  North	
  Sea	
  
opera*ons	
  of	
  Talisman	
  Energy	
  (another	
  
Canadian	
  oil	
  company)	
  in	
  Jul	
  2012	
  
– Provides	
  Chinese	
  firms	
  with	
  advanced	
  produc*on	
  
technologies	
  to	
  draw	
  oil	
  and	
  gas	
  from	
  
nontradi*onal	
  areas	
  such	
  as	
  deepwater	
  fields	
  and	
  
hardened	
  rock	
  forma*ons	
  more	
  efficiently	
  
43/50	
  
Implica*ons	
  for	
  Emerging	
  Markets	
  (1/3)	
  
•  There	
  exist	
  plen*ful	
  opportuni*es	
  for	
  
emerging	
  market	
  (EM)	
  firms	
  to	
  partner	
  with,	
  
or	
  invest	
  in	
  Chinese	
  firms	
  and	
  R&D	
  facili*es	
  	
  
•  Corporate	
  execu*ves	
  in	
  EM	
  should	
  expand	
  
their	
  horizons	
  beyond	
  the	
  tradi*onal	
  S&T	
  
superpowers	
  such	
  as	
  the	
  US,	
  Japan	
  and	
  
Germany	
  
44/50	
  
Implica*ons	
  for	
  Emerging	
  Markets	
  (2/3)	
  
•  In	
  China,	
  opportuni*es	
  will	
  abound	
  in	
  industry	
  
(and	
  academia)	
  for	
  
– Coopera*on	
  in	
  S&T	
  applied	
  research	
  
– Investment	
  in	
  R&D	
  partnerships	
  
– Sourcing	
  technologically	
  sophis*cated	
  
manufacturing	
  components	
  and	
  R&D	
  resources	
  	
  
•  Not	
  only	
  will	
  EM	
  firms	
  find	
  it	
  cheaper	
  to	
  move	
  
into	
  China,	
  since	
  some	
  of	
  them	
  are	
  Asian,	
  they	
  
will	
  also	
  find	
  cultural	
  affini*es	
  there	
  
45/50	
  
Implica*ons	
  for	
  Emerging	
  Markets	
  (3/3)	
  
•  Knowledge	
  and	
  products	
  that	
  result	
  from	
  such	
  
coopera*on	
  will	
  be	
  closer	
  to	
  market	
  for	
  domes*c	
  
consump*on	
  (for	
  those	
  located	
  near	
  China)	
  
•  EM	
  firms	
  that	
  partner	
  with	
  Chinese	
  firms/
universi*es	
  to	
  conduct	
  R&D	
  or	
  manufacturing	
  in	
  
China	
  will	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  take	
  advantage	
  of	
  China’s	
  
growing	
  and	
  improving	
  S&T	
  infrastructure	
  and	
  
human	
  capital	
  
–  And	
  be	
  closer	
  to	
  what	
  is	
  soon	
  to	
  be	
  the	
  world’s	
  largest	
  
consumer	
  market	
  
46/50	
  
Conclusions	
  (1/4)	
  
•  Too	
  few	
  in	
  policymaking	
  and	
  financial	
  circles	
  
an*cipate	
  the	
  rise	
  of	
  Chinese	
  mul*na*onals	
  to	
  
posi*ons	
  of	
  global	
  technological	
  leadership	
  
•  To	
  be	
  sure,	
  some	
  Chinese	
  companies	
  have	
  
benefiled	
  enormously	
  from	
  monopolies	
  
granted	
  by	
  Beijing	
  and	
  con*nuous	
  
improvement	
  of	
  Chinese	
  firms’	
  technological	
  
strength	
  relies	
  on	
  poli*cal	
  stability	
  in	
  the	
  
country	
  
47/50	
  
Conclusions	
  (2/4)	
  
•  However,	
  more	
  of	
  this	
  technological	
  rise	
  
should	
  be	
  alributed	
  to:	
  
– China’s	
  massive	
  growing	
  domes*c	
  market	
  
– Strong	
  government	
  support	
  aimed	
  at	
  turning	
  
China	
  into	
  an	
  ‘innova*on	
  na*on’	
  
– Intensified	
  forces	
  of	
  globaliza*on	
  
48/50	
  
Conclusions	
  (3/4)	
  
•  Combined,	
  and	
  individually,	
  these	
  factors	
  help	
  
explain	
  how	
  and	
  why	
  Chinese	
  companies	
  will	
  
move	
  beyond	
  their	
  tradi*onal	
  reliance	
  on	
  low	
  
factor-­‐input	
  costs	
  to	
  scale	
  the	
  value-­‐added	
  chain	
  
–  Thereby	
  realizing	
  the	
  country’s	
  development	
  and	
  
strategic	
  goals	
  based	
  on	
  its	
  burgeoning	
  technological	
  
strength	
  
•  M&A	
  cases	
  are	
  par*cularly	
  insigh|ul	
  because	
  they	
  indicate	
  
the	
  extent	
  to	
  which	
  technology	
  transfer	
  to	
  China	
  is	
  now	
  
taking	
  place	
  across	
  a	
  broad	
  swathe	
  of	
  industries	
  	
  
49/50	
  
Conclusions	
  (4/4)	
  
–  In	
  the	
  past,	
  Chinese	
  companies	
  had	
  to	
  be	
  content	
  with	
  
acquiring	
  technology	
  through	
  license	
  agreements	
  or	
  joint	
  
ventures	
  with	
  foreign	
  partners	
  
•  These	
  arrangements	
  limited	
  use	
  of	
  technology	
  by	
  Chinese	
  firms	
  
–  When	
  a	
  Chinese	
  company	
  acquires	
  an	
  overseas	
  
counterpart	
  outright,	
  it	
  owns	
  the	
  underlying	
  technology	
  
•  Can	
  use	
  the	
  technology	
  is	
  as	
  it	
  wishes	
  (domes*cally	
  or	
  
interna*onally)	
  
–  Furthermore,	
  overseas	
  acquisi*ons	
  represent	
  a	
  point	
  of	
  
pride	
  in	
  China,	
  showcasing	
  its	
  rising	
  economic	
  strength	
  
•  Signaling	
  both	
  Chinese	
  triumph	
  and	
  decline	
  of	
  its	
  Western	
  
counterparts	
  
50/50	
  
HKUST	
  Ins*tute	
  for	
  Emerging	
  Market	
  Studies	
  (IEMS)	
  
•  Provides thought leadership
on business and policy
challenges in emerging
economies
•  40+ Faculty Associates
•  Founded in 2013 with
support from EY
iems.ust.hk
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China as the World's Technology Leader by Naubahar Sharif

  • 1. HKUST  Ins*tute  for  Emerging  Market  Studies  (IEMS)   China  as  the  World’s  Technology   Leader   Naubahar  Sharif   Associate  Professor,  Division  of  Social  Science,  HKUST,     and  Faculty  Associate  
  • 2. China’s  Economic  Ascent   •  Rapid  economic  growth  from  1979  onwards   •  Obvious  compe**ve  advantages  (i.e.   popula*on)   •  Has  now  developed  into  a  leading  economic   (poli*cal?,  military?)  superpower   •  Story  of  China’s  economic  ascent  has  been   widely  told,  heard  and  understood     – .  .  .  But  how  about  the  story  of  China  as  a   technological  superpower?   1  
  • 3. How  to  Measure  Leadership?   •  Four  factors  comprise  ‘technology  leadership’   – Research  and  development  (R&D)  intensity   – R&D  personnel   – Number  of  scien*fic  publica*ons   – Number  of  patent  applica*ons   2/50  
  • 4. A  Snapshot  Look  at  the  Strength  of   China’s  Innova*on  System  (1/3)   •  Rate  of  spending  on  R&D  outpaces  overall   economic  growth   – In  2012,  China  spent  US$163  billion,  or  1.98%  of   its  growing  GDP  on  R&D   •  Placing  it  2nd  in  the  world,  only  to  the  United  States     •  With  3.2  million  R&D  personnel  in  2012,  China   now  turns  out  the  largest  number  of   undergraduate,  postgraduate,  and  doctoral   students  in  science  and  engineering  in  the   world   3/50  
  • 5. A  Snapshot  Look  at  the  Strength  of   China’s  Innova*on  System  (2/3)   •  Over  the  period  2001-­‐2011,  China  ranked  2nd  in   the  world  in  research  output  as  measured  by  the   number  of  papers  published  by  Chinese  scien*sts   in  research  journals   •  Ranked  7th—but  rising—in  terms  of  cita*ons  for   papers  authored  by  Chinese  scien*sts   •  In  2012,  China  trailed  only  the  United  States,   Japan  and  Germany  in  patent  filings  under  the   Patent  Coopera*on  Treaty  (PCT)  administered  by   the  World  Intellectual  Property  Office  (WIPO)   4/50  
  • 6. A  Snapshot  Look  at  the  Strength  of   China’s  Innova*on  System  (3/3)   – In  2012,  two  large  telecommunica*ons  equipment   manufacturers,  ZTE  and  Huawei  ranked  1st  and  3rd   in  worldwide  ranking  of  top  PCT  applicants   – At  the  U.S.  Patent  and  Trademark  Office  (USPTO),   the  number  of  patent  applica*ons  origina*ng  in   China  grew  18%  from  2009  to  2010  alone   •  A  rate  matched  by  no  other  country   5/50  
  • 7. China’s  Technological  Ascent  Widely   Ques*oned  (1/3)   •  Despite  these  indicators,  there  exists   considerable  skep*cism  over  China’s  capacity   to  alain  global  technological  leadership   – George  Gilboy,  a  research  affiliate  at  MIT   •  Wrote  in  Foreign  Affairs,  in  2004,  that  ‘Chinese  firms  .  .  .   forgo  investment  in  long-­‐term  technology   development.  .  .  [and]  rely  heavily  on  imported  foreign   technology  and  components’   6/50  
  • 8. China’s  Technological  Ascent  Widely   Ques*oned  (2/3)   – David  Shambaugh  of  George  Washington   University     •  In  2012  iden*fied  ten  weaknesses  in  corporate  and   human  resources  management  to  explain  why  Chinese   companies  are  s*ll  taking  baby  steps  towards  parity  in   global  business   – Dan  Breznitz  and  Michael  Murphee,  professors  at   the  Georgia  Ins*tute  of  Technology   •  Argued  in  2011  that  China  has  selled  on  merely   keeping  pace  with  technological  advances  elsewhere,   pursuing  innova*on  only  in  later  !  in  less   consequen*al  stages  of  the  produc*on  process   7/50  
  • 9. China’s  Technological  Ascent  Widely   Ques*oned  (3/3)   – Thomas  Friedman  (journalist,  columnist,  author)     •  Argued,  in  Sep  2012,  that  driving  economic  growth   through  entrepreneurship  and  innova*on  depends  on  a   culture  of  trust  !  observing  that  ‘China  has  a  huge   trust  deficit’,  a  lingering  remnant  of  Maoism   •  Aforemen*oned  skep*cism  overlooks  several   important  factors  that  have  posi*oned  China   to  compete  for  global  technological  leadership   8/50  
  • 10. China’s  Sources  of  Technological   Advantage     •  Three  dis*nct  sources  of  compe**ve   advantage  that  China  will  leverage  in   developing  its  capacity  for  technological   innova*on   1.  Rapidly  growing,  large  domes*c  market   2.  Autocra*c  system  of  governance   3.  Globaliza*on   9/50  
  • 11. A  Brief  Look  at  Tech  Leadership   Throughout  History  (1/6)   •  Considering  the  period  from  the  Bri*sh  industrial   revolu*on  onwards  .  .  .     •  .  .  .  Technology  has  been  leveraged  to  alain   compe**veness,  as  well  as  economic  and  military   leadership   •  Over  the  70-­‐year  period  of  the  Bri*sh  industrial   revolu*on,  there  were  advances  made  in  the   iron,  colon  and  steel  industries   –  These  advances  acted  as  catalysts  for  further   technological  change  in  associated  industries       10  
  • 12. A  Brief  Look  at  Tech  Leadership   Throughout  History  (2/6)   –  Technological  changes  led  to  social,  economic,   poli*cal  and  social  changes  (and  vice  versa)   •  By  the  end  of  the  industrial  revolu*on,  Britain   had  developed  a  considerable  technological  lead   over  na*ons   –  Accomplishments  demonstrated  at  the  First  World’s   Fair  in  London  (Crystal  Palace)  in  1851     •  Aqer  Britain,  Germany  began  to  industrialize  in   Europe,  and  then  also  France   –  Technology  transfer  played  an  important  role   11  
  • 13. A  Brief  Look  at  Tech  Leadership   Throughout  History  (3/6)   •  From  the  turn  of  the  19th  century  the  torch  of   global  technological  leadership  shiqed  from   Europe  to  USA   •  America  is  the  global  technological  leader  today     –  !  But  being  threatened  by  China!   •  By  the  First  World  War  America  firms—especially   in  chemical  and  electronic  industries—had   established  first-­‐class  industrial  R&D  labs   –  These  labs  were  insulated  from  more  immediate   corporate  pressures  to  solve  shop-­‐floor  problems   •  Allowed  them  to  dedicate  more  *me  to  inven*on   12/50  
  • 14. A  Brief  Look  at  Tech  Leadership   Throughout  History  (4/6)   •  Post  World  War  II  American  dominance  was  due   to  advanced  technology   –  Rise  of  large  US  corpora*ons  noteworthy  as  they   pioneered  mass  produc*on  techniques,  the  assembly   line,  standardized  product  and  long  produc*on  run   •  From  mid-­‐1900s  onwards,  large  US  corpora*ons  had   developed  a  clear  technological  edge  in  global  produc*on   and  trade     •  US  viewed  as  ‘leader’  and  other  countries  as   ‘followers’  in  the  “catching-­‐up  hypothesis”   13/50  
  • 15. A  Brief  Look  at  Tech  Leadership   Throughout  History  (5/6)   •  American  technological  leadership  has  not  remained   uniformly  strong  throughout  the  20th  century   •  Was  threatened  in  the  1980s  by  Japan   •  Japan’s  focus  on  innova*on  and    technological  advance  propelled      Japan  into  the  leadership  posi*on  within  the  Asian   region   •  Ini*al  explana*ons  to  describe  Japan’s  ascent  focused   simplis*cally  on  copying,  imita*ng,  and  impor*ng   foreign  technology   –  With  passage  of  *me  this  explana*on  was  no  longer   adequate     14/50  
  • 16. A  Brief  Look  at  Tech  Leadership   Throughout  History  (6/6)   –  Gradually  became  clear  that  the  correct  explanatory   factors  were:  higher  technological  sophis*ca*on  of   new  products  and  processes,  shorter  lead  *mes,  rapid   diffusion  of  new  technologies,  and  integra*on  of  R&D,   produc*on,  and  technology  imports  at  firm  level   •  Aqer  Japan,  smaller  countries  have  focused  their   alempts  on  taking  a  ‘slice’  of  the  technological   leadership  pie  (i.e.  Israel,  Sweden,  Denmark,   Finland,  Korea,  Taiwan,  Singapore)     15/50  
  • 17. China’s  Three  Compe**ve  Advantages   •  In  order  to  alain  technological  leadership,   China  has  three  dis*nct  sources  of  compe**ve   advantage  (each  discussed  individually):   – Market  size   – Governmental  power   – Globaliza*on   16/50  
  • 18. Growing  Large  Domes*c  Market  (1/6)   •  Market  size  is  an  important  determinant  of   innova*on  ac*vi*es   –  Greater  the  demand,  greater  the  revenue   –  More  efficient  the  produc*on  process,  greater  the   aggregate  cost  savings     •  Implies  a  growing  market  with  growing  demand   will  lead  to  increasing  returns  from  investment   innova*on   –  Companies  incen*vized  to  introduce  new  products  to   reap  increasing  returns   17/50  
  • 19. Growing  Large  Domes*c  Market  (2/6)   •  Following  World  War  II,  US  companies  also   benefited  from  selling  to  the  world’s  largest   domes*c  market  (the  US)   –  These  US  firms  led  the  world  in  developing  and   implemen*ng  leading-­‐edge  technologies,  and  claimed   largest  worldwide  share  in  many  export  goods    !  These  developments  reflected  longstanding   American  dominance  in  mass  produc*on  industries  –   a  dominance  that  resulted  from  ready  access  to   natural  resources  and  the  world’s  largest  domes*c   market   18/50  
  • 20. Growing  Large  Domes*c  Market  (3/6)   – Resource  and  capital  intensive  American   manufacturing  firms  operated  on  a  much  larger   scale  than  their  counterparts  elsewhere    !  Due  to  economies  of  scale  American  firms   enjoyed,  innova*ons  from  Europe  were  developed   and  brought  to  market  in  the  US   -­‐  Similar  dynamics  will  play  out  in  the  massive   Chinese  market  !  China  has  strengths  in  mass   produc*on  (‘workshop  of  the  world’)  able  to   adapt  Western  techniques  to  Chinese  condi*ons   19/50  
  • 21. Growing  Large  Domes*c  Market  (4/6)   •  China’s  emergence  as  a  rapidly  growing  major   market  offers  it  a  unique  advantage  for   technological  advancement   – The  likes  of  which  no  na*on  other  than  the  US  has   hitherto  enjoyed   •  Local  Chinese  firms  are  best  situated  to  sa*sfy   the  singular  tastes  of  the  Chinese  market   – In  terms  of  Chinese  consumers  expecta*ons   regarding  price,  quality,  and  product  features   20/50  
  • 22. Growing  Large  Domes*c  Market  (5/6)   •  Integra*on  of  mass  produc*on  strength  with   the  world’s  second  largest  economy  has  led   forecasters  at  Goldman  Sachs,  Standard   Chartered  Bank,  the  Economist  to  predict  that   the  Chinese  economy  will  be  twice  as  large  as   the  US  economy  by  2030   – Jus*n  Yifu  Lin  (former  chief  economist  of  the   World  Bank)  predicted  that  by  2030,  100-­‐150  of   the  largest  Fortune  500  companies  in  the  world   will  be  Chinese  firms   21/50  
  • 23. Growing  Large  Domes*c  Market  (6/6)   •  If  these  forecasts  prove  true,  capacity  of   Chinese  firms  to  con*nuously  leverage   advantage  of  their  large  home  market  to   enhance  their  technological  compe**veness   will  be  a  major  success  factor   22/50  
  • 24. China’s  Three  Compe**ve  Advantages   – Governmental  power   23/50  
  • 25. Autocra*c  System  of  Governance  (1/9)   •  On  the  way  to  becoming  global  technological   leaders,  Chinese  companies  have  benefiled   significantly  from  the  Chinese  government’s   industrial  policy   •  Chinese  government’s  industrial  policy  is   unmatched  in  scale  and  strength  by  Western   standards   •  In  fact,  China  has  adopted  the  US  model  to  boost   their  own  state-­‐backed  R&D  investments   24/50  
  • 26. Autocra*c  System  of  Governance  (2/9)   •  Success  of  high-­‐tech  industries  in  the  US  in  the   postwar  era  reflected  massive  private  and  public   investments  in  R&D  and  scien*fic  and  technical   educa*on  (made  aqer  World  War  II)   •  Given  the  Chinese  autocra*c  system  of   governance,  China  is  able  to  steer  Chinese  (state-­‐ owned)  and  private  companies  to  increase  their   R&D  investments   –  This  has  been  reflected  in  the  amount  of  money  spent   on  R&D  in  China     25/50  
  • 27. Autocra*c  System  of  Governance  (3/9)   •  Use  of  industrial  policy  to  help  domes*c   companies  upgrade  technological  capability  have   their  roots  in  Hamiltonian  economic  philosophy   !  Holds  that  a  big  country  needs  big  organiza*ons    to  succeed  and  that  the  federal  government    should  partner  with  private  enterprise  to    finance   scien*fic  research  and  provide      resources  and   infrastructure  that  businesses  lack   •  Under  this  Hamiltonian  approach,  American   government  sponsored  projects  such  as  the  Erie   Canal,  transcon*nental  railroad,  land-­‐grant   universi*es,  network  of  airports   26/50  
  • 28. Autocra*c  System  of  Governance  (4/9)   – Helped  create  within  the  US  a  huge   interconnected  marketplace     •  Companies  such  as  Standard  Oil,  General  Motors,  US   Steel,  General  Electric  and  Sears  Roebuck  prospered   and  grew   – US  government  and  military  led  the  way  in   financing  innova*on  in  its  early  stages   – Government-­‐financed  research  and  procurement   fueled  industries  that  produced  hybrid  seed,  radar,   synthe*c  rubber,  the  microchip,  GPS,  Internet,  etc.   27/50  
  • 29. Autocra*c  System  of  Governance  (5/9)   – Helped  create  within  the  US  a  huge   interconnected  marketplace     •  Companies  such  as  Standard  Oil,  General  Motors,  US   Steel,  General  Electric  and  Sears  Roebuck  prospered   and  grew   – US  government  and  military  led  the  way  in   financing  innova*on  in  its  early  stages   – Government-­‐financed  research  and  procurement   fueled  industries  that  produced  hybrid  seed,  radar,   synthe*c  rubber,  the  microchip,  GPS,  Internet,  etc.   28/50  
  • 30. Autocra*c  System  of  Governance  (6/9)   •  Most  of  the  centralized  power  that  enabled  China   to  run  a  planned  economy  remains  in  place   –  Government  is  able  to  play  a  significant  role  in  shaping   increasingly  market-­‐oriented  ac*vi*es   •  Chinese  government  has  more  policy  instruments   at  its  disposal  than  do  its  Western  counterparts   –  Enables  the  government  to  facilitate  technological   learning  on  part  of  indigenous  firms   29/50  
  • 31. Autocra*c  System  of  Governance  (7/9)   •  With  beneficial  policies,  Chinese  government  has   bolstered  the  wind  turbine  industry,  and   ‘strategic  emerging  technologies’  which  include:   environmental  technology;  telecommunica*ons;   biotechnology;  advanced  manufacturing;   renewable  energy;  advanced  material  and  green   vehicles   –  Beneficial  policies  include  large-­‐scale  government   grants,  tax  concessions,  easy  access  to  bank  loans,   policies  regarding  intellectual  property,   standardiza*on,  etc.   30/50  
  • 32. Autocra*c  System  of  Governance  (8/9)   •  China  is  the  2nd  largest  performer  of  R&D   globally,  accoun*ng  for  12%  of  global  total   – US  is  the  largest  performer,  with  31%   •  The  pace  of  real  growth  in  China’s  overall  R&D   expenditure  over  the  period  1999-­‐2009  has   been  excep*onally  high,  at  20%  annually   •  In  March  2006,  China  launched  its  ‘Na*onal   Mid-­‐  and  Long-­‐Term  Science  and  Technology   Development  Plan  for  2006-­‐2020’   31/50  
  • 33. Mid  to  Long-­‐Term  S  &  T  Development   Plan,  2006-­‐2020   •  A  plan  that  demonstrates  remarkable  foresight   for  a  developing  country   •  In  the  Plan,  the  R&D  expenditure  to  GDP  ra*o  is   to  be  raised  to  2.5%  by  2020   –  In  2012,  it  was  1.98%   •  The  Plan  proposes  ‘indigenous  innova*on’   –  Represents  the  Chinese  leadership’s  ambi*on  to   sustain  economic  growth  through  indigenous   innova*on  and  increased  government-­‐led  R&D   investments   32/50  
  • 34. Autocra*c  System  of  Governance  (9/9)   •  There  is  of  course  concern  in  the  US  and   elsewhere  that  Beijing’s  visible  hand  is  giving   China  an  unfair  advantage  because  China  is   not  playing  fairly,  ‘by  the  rules  of  interna*onal   trade’   – This  too  is  a  symptom  of  the  CCP’s  style  of   governance  (where  a  heavy  hand  combined  with   secrecy  prevails)     33/50  
  • 35. China’s  Three  Compe**ve  Advantages   – Globaliza9on   34/50  
  • 36. Intensified  Forces  of  Globaliza*on  (1/9)   •  In  a  globalized  era,  Chinese  companies  need   not  develop  every  cuzng-­‐edge  technology  on   their  own   •  Rather,  they  can  undertake  mergers  and   acquisi*ons  as  a  deliberate  strategy  for   acquiring  advanced  technologies  owned  by   foreign  firms   35/50  
  • 37. Intensified  Forces  of  Globaliza*on  (2/9)   •  As  early  as  the  Tenth  Five-­‐Year  Plan  (2001-­‐2005),   Chinese  government  unveiled  its  ‘go  global’   strategy  to  encourage  Chinese  companies  to   invest  abroad   •  China’s  outward  foreign  direct  investment  (FDI)   accelerated  aqer  2009   –  In  2010,  China’s  outward  FDI  amounted  to  US$68.6   billion,  ranking  it  5th  in  the  world   •  Goal  of    many  outward  FDI  projects  has  been   acquisi*on  of  advanced  technology  !  some   illustra*ve  examples:   36/50  
  • 38. Intensified  Forces  of  Globaliza*on  (3/9)   •  Lenovo  Group  struck  two  deals  in  close   succession  in  early  2014   –  Jan:  Bought  IBM’s  low-­‐end  server  business  for  server   business  for  US$2.3  billion   –  Feb:  Bought  Google  Inc’s  Motorola  handset  division   for  US$2.91  billion   •  These  acquisi*ons  further  remodel  Lenovo  as  a   force  in  mobile  devices  in  addi*on  to  data     –  Posi*ons  them  to  challenge  largest  global  tech  firms   such  as  Apple  and  Samsung   37/50  
  • 39. Intensified  Forces  of  Globaliza*on  (4/9)   •  Beijing  Automo*ve  Industry  Holding  Company   Limited  (BAIC)  acquired  IPRs  affiliated  with  Saab   vehicles  and  engines  (Swedish  car  manufacturer   owned  by  General  Motors),  its  en*re  R&D   facili*es,  quality  management  systems,  and   supplier  development  and  management  systems   in  Dec  2009   –  BAIC’s  objec*ve  in  acquiring  Saab  was  to  integrate   Saab’s  technology  into  its  future  R&D  opera*ons  to   develop  an  indigenous  BAIC  vehicle   •  First  indigenous  BAIC-­‐brand  vehicle  developed  based  on  the   Saab  technology  was  launched  in  Sep  2014   38/50  
  • 40. Intensified  Forces  of  Globaliza*on  (5/9)   •  Chinese  carmaker  Geely  completed  acquisi*on  of   another  Swedish  automaker,  Volvo,  from  Ford   motors  in  Aug  2010   –  Geely  needed  Volvo’s  technology  in  order  to  improve   quality  of  its  own  brand  of  cars  because  of  increasing   local  compe**on   –  Geely  requires  Volvo  engineers  to  help  it  improve  its   engineering  capabili*es     –  Geely  owns  all  of  Volvo’s  key  technologies  and  IPRs   and  also  has  the  right  to  use  the  IPR   •  IPR  ownership  represents  the  core  value  of  this  acquisi*on   39/50  
  • 41. Intensified  Forces  of  Globaliza*on  (6/9)   •  In  avia*on,  China  Avia*on  Industry  General   Aircraq  (CAIGA)—largest  general  aircraq   manufacturer  in  China—acquired  US-­‐based   Cirrus  Aircraq  in  Jun  2011   – By  acquiring  Cirrus,  CAIGA  will  complete   development  of  a  new  single-­‐engine  ‘Vision’  jet   40/50  
  • 42. Intensified  Forces  of  Globaliza*on  (7/9)   •  In  renewable  energy,  R&D  alliance  between   China’s  Sinovel  and  US-­‐based  Windtec  in  2008   allowing  Sinovel  to  produce  five-­‐  and  six-­‐   megawal  turbines  in  2010  and  2011   •  Chinese  company  Goldwind  acquired  70%   ownership  of  German-­‐based  Vensys  Energy  in   2008  allowing  it  access  to  the  world’s  leading   technology  and  professionals  in  area  of   permanent  magnet  direct-­‐drive  wind  turbines   41/50  
  • 43. Intensified  Forces  of  Globaliza*on  (8/9)   •  In  machinery,  Sany  Group—China’s  largest   construc*on  equipment  manufacturer— acquired  German  company  Putzmeister   (manufacturer  of  high-­‐tech  concrete  pumps)   in  Jan  2012   – For  its  cuzng  edge  technology   42/50  
  • 44. Intensified  Forces  of  Globaliza*on  (9/9)   •  In  energy,  CNOOC  acquired  Canadian  oil   producer  Nexen  for  US$15  billion  in  Feb  2013   and  Sinopec  purchased  49%  of  the  North  Sea   opera*ons  of  Talisman  Energy  (another   Canadian  oil  company)  in  Jul  2012   – Provides  Chinese  firms  with  advanced  produc*on   technologies  to  draw  oil  and  gas  from   nontradi*onal  areas  such  as  deepwater  fields  and   hardened  rock  forma*ons  more  efficiently   43/50  
  • 45. Implica*ons  for  Emerging  Markets  (1/3)   •  There  exist  plen*ful  opportuni*es  for   emerging  market  (EM)  firms  to  partner  with,   or  invest  in  Chinese  firms  and  R&D  facili*es     •  Corporate  execu*ves  in  EM  should  expand   their  horizons  beyond  the  tradi*onal  S&T   superpowers  such  as  the  US,  Japan  and   Germany   44/50  
  • 46. Implica*ons  for  Emerging  Markets  (2/3)   •  In  China,  opportuni*es  will  abound  in  industry   (and  academia)  for   – Coopera*on  in  S&T  applied  research   – Investment  in  R&D  partnerships   – Sourcing  technologically  sophis*cated   manufacturing  components  and  R&D  resources     •  Not  only  will  EM  firms  find  it  cheaper  to  move   into  China,  since  some  of  them  are  Asian,  they   will  also  find  cultural  affini*es  there   45/50  
  • 47. Implica*ons  for  Emerging  Markets  (3/3)   •  Knowledge  and  products  that  result  from  such   coopera*on  will  be  closer  to  market  for  domes*c   consump*on  (for  those  located  near  China)   •  EM  firms  that  partner  with  Chinese  firms/ universi*es  to  conduct  R&D  or  manufacturing  in   China  will  be  able  to  take  advantage  of  China’s   growing  and  improving  S&T  infrastructure  and   human  capital   –  And  be  closer  to  what  is  soon  to  be  the  world’s  largest   consumer  market   46/50  
  • 48. Conclusions  (1/4)   •  Too  few  in  policymaking  and  financial  circles   an*cipate  the  rise  of  Chinese  mul*na*onals  to   posi*ons  of  global  technological  leadership   •  To  be  sure,  some  Chinese  companies  have   benefiled  enormously  from  monopolies   granted  by  Beijing  and  con*nuous   improvement  of  Chinese  firms’  technological   strength  relies  on  poli*cal  stability  in  the   country   47/50  
  • 49. Conclusions  (2/4)   •  However,  more  of  this  technological  rise   should  be  alributed  to:   – China’s  massive  growing  domes*c  market   – Strong  government  support  aimed  at  turning   China  into  an  ‘innova*on  na*on’   – Intensified  forces  of  globaliza*on   48/50  
  • 50. Conclusions  (3/4)   •  Combined,  and  individually,  these  factors  help   explain  how  and  why  Chinese  companies  will   move  beyond  their  tradi*onal  reliance  on  low   factor-­‐input  costs  to  scale  the  value-­‐added  chain   –  Thereby  realizing  the  country’s  development  and   strategic  goals  based  on  its  burgeoning  technological   strength   •  M&A  cases  are  par*cularly  insigh|ul  because  they  indicate   the  extent  to  which  technology  transfer  to  China  is  now   taking  place  across  a  broad  swathe  of  industries     49/50  
  • 51. Conclusions  (4/4)   –  In  the  past,  Chinese  companies  had  to  be  content  with   acquiring  technology  through  license  agreements  or  joint   ventures  with  foreign  partners   •  These  arrangements  limited  use  of  technology  by  Chinese  firms   –  When  a  Chinese  company  acquires  an  overseas   counterpart  outright,  it  owns  the  underlying  technology   •  Can  use  the  technology  is  as  it  wishes  (domes*cally  or   interna*onally)   –  Furthermore,  overseas  acquisi*ons  represent  a  point  of   pride  in  China,  showcasing  its  rising  economic  strength   •  Signaling  both  Chinese  triumph  and  decline  of  its  Western   counterparts   50/50  
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