As the G20 meets in Mexico with the continuing crisis in Europe dominating the agenda, a new poll from Ipsos MORI’s global @dvisor shows that just 12% of citizens from across 9 European countries (Germany, France, Spain, Sweden, Great Britain, Belgium, Italy Hungary and Poland) expect their local economy to improve in the next six months. This has fallen from 20% in April 2010.
Ipsos Global @dvisor 33: The economic pulse of the world June 2012
1. Global @dvisor
The Economic Pulse of the World
Citizens in 24 Countries Assess the Current State of their
Country’s Economy for a Total Global Perspective
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33
The Economic Pulse
2. These are the findings of the Global @dvisor Wave 33 (G@33),
an Ipsos survey conducted between May 1st and May 15th, 2012.
SURVEY METHOD COUNTRIES SAMPLE WEIGHTING
• The survey instrument is • The countries reporting herein • For the results of the survey • Weighting was then employed
conducted monthly in 24 are Argentina, Australia, presented herein, an to balance demographics and
countries around the world via Belgium, Brazil, Canada, international sample of 18,713 ensure that the sample's
the Ipsos Online Panel system. China, France, Germany, adults age 18-64 in the US and composition reflects that of the
Great Britain, Hungary, India, Canada, and age 16-64 in all adult population according to
Indonesia, Italy, Japan, other countries, were the most recent country
Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi interviewed. Approximately Census data, and to provide
Arabia, South Africa, South 1000+ individuals participated results intended to
Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey on a country by country basis approximate the sample
and the United States of via the Ipsos Online Panel with universe. A survey with an
America. the exception of Argentina, unweighted probability sample
Belgium, Indonesia, Mexico, of this size and a 100%
Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, response rate would have an
South Africa, South Korea, estimated margin of error of +/-
Sweden and Turkey, where 3.1 percentage points for a
each have a sample sample of 1,000 and an
approximately 500+. In this estimated margin of error of +/-
wave (G@33), 500+ 4.5 percentage points 19 times
individuals in Denmark also out of 20 per country of what
participated in the survey and the results would have been
1000+ individuals in Kenya had the entire population of
participated in a similar survey. adults in that country had been
polled. All sample surveys and
polls may be subject to other
sources of error, including, but
not limited to coverage error,
and measurement error.
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 2
The Economic Pulse
3. Analytic Components…
There are three analytic components that make up the findings of this monthly Economic Pulse report.
Each question is tracked and analyzed from questions dealing with:
The currently perceived macroeconomic state of
the respondent’s country:
• Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current
economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat
bad or very bad?
The currently perceived state of the local economy:
• Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,
where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
A six month outlook for the local economy:
• Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local
area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or
much weaker than it is now?
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 3
The Economic Pulse
4. SUMMARY
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 4
The Economic Pulse
5. Summary…
The global economic engines have lost significant steam this month: the global
aggregate national economic assessment drops another point this month to 37%, the
lowest it has been since the economic downturn of 2009.
The global aggregate assessment of national economic confidence has generally been
trending like a pendulum, shifting up one point, down one point each month. This
sounding represents a change, however, as it is the first time in two years that the
aggregate assessment has reflected a drop over two consecutive months.
The assessment continues to be dragged down by Europe (24%), though the regional
figure remains unchanged this month. The Middle East and Africa is the geographic
region with the highest aggregate assessment (-1 to 57%), followed by Asia-Pacific
(+1 to 43%), the only region to reflect an improvement this wave. North America (-3 to
42%) and Latin America (-2 to 41%) follow.
On the other two metrics measured in this study, the world remains cautious: the
global aggregates of local economic (29%) and the future of local economic (24%)
assessments remain unchanged this wave.
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 5
The Economic Pulse
6. A Look at Kenya
This month, Ipsos staff in Kenya fielded questions on national and local economic
confidence via CATI telephone methodology. The results place Kenya close to the
average on national economic confidence (33% of Kenyans indicate their country’s
current economic situation is “good”) and slightly below the global average on local
assessments (21% indicate their local area’s economic situation is “good”).
NATIONAL: Global 37%
Kenya 35%
South Africa 33%
LOCAL: Global 29%
South Africa 30%
Kenya 21%
Ipsos Synovate Kenya surveyed a sample of n=1,024 adults over the age of 18 via the telephone between April 23 and April 26, 2012.
For more information about the Kenyan study, please contact: Victor Rateng, Project Manager – Opinion Polls
Tel: +254 20 4450190-6 I victor.rateng@ipsos.com A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33
6
The Economic Pulse
7. G8 vs. BRIC
This quarterly note compares the world’s largest
National
developed economies with its fastest-growing 52% 55%
economies.
28% 28%
The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and Jul May
2011 2012
China) continue to show strength in economic
assessment levels (55% national, 40% local), well
above the G8 countries. The aggregate of
Local
national assessments in the region has 40%
38%
softened, narrowing the gap between the BRIC
and G8 (27 points, down 5 this quarter) though that
gap remains substantial. 23% 22%
Jul May
2011 2012
The G8 group, representing the United States,
Future Local
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia,
41% 44%
and Great Britain (28% national, 22% local) has
remained almost unchanged since last summer
and remains considerably weaker than BRIC,
particularly at the national level. 14% 15%
Jul May
2011 2012
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 7
The Economic Pulse
8. THE WORLD at a GLANCE
THE
WORLD
at a
GLANCE
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 8
The Economic Pulse
9. Global Average of National Economic Assessment (37%)
Down One Point
This month’s global economic aggregate of national economies declines one
point to 37% of global citizens rating their national economies as ‘good’. The change
in sentiment represents the first time in the last two years that the aggregate has
experienced a drop over two consecutive months.
Saudi Arabia again shows the strongest proportions of people rating their current
national economic situation as ‘good’ (88%). They are followed by: India (70%),
Germany (69%), Sweden (64%), China (63%) and Canada (62%). .
Only a handful of those in Spain (3%), Italy (3%) and Hungary (3%) rate their national
economies as ‘good’, followed by Japan (9%), France (9%) and Great Britain (10%).
Countries with the greatest improvements in this wave: Belgium (+7 to 28%),
Argentina (+7 to 45%), Indonesia (+4 to 40%) and Russia (+3 to 36%).
Countries with the greatest declines: Brazil (-10 to 49%), Sweden (-7 to 64%), Mexico
(-5 to 28%) and the United States (-4 to 23%).
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 9
The Economic Pulse
10. Global Average of Local Economic Assessment (29%)
Unchanged
The global average of local economic assessment among the core 24 countries has
declined one point with three in ten (29%) global citizens who agree the state of the
current economy in their local area is ‘good’.
The poll finds assessments of local economies to be strongest in Saudi Arabia (64%),
Sweden (51%), India (50%), Germany (47%), China (46%) and Canada (45%).
Spain (4%), Japan (7%), Italy (8%), Hungary (8%), Great Britain (13%) and France
(15%) sit at the bottom of the global ranking for this metric.
Countries with the greatest improvements in local economic assessment: Belgium (+5
to 19%), Argentina (+4 to 27%), Russia (+4 to 22%), South Africa (+4 to 30%), Poland
(+3 to 23%) and the United States (+3 to 23%).
Countries with the greatest declines in local economic assessment: China (-7 to 46%),
Mexico (-5 to 22%), India (-4 to 50%), Australia (-3 to 39%) and Sweden (-2 to 51%).
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 10
The Economic Pulse
11. Global Average of Future Outlook for Local Economy
Also Unchanged: 24%
Currently, a global average of one quarter (24%) believe their local economy will
be stronger six months from now, figure that remains unchanged this wave.
Brazil holds on to its number one spot on this measurement (67%), followed by Saudi
Arabia (57%), India (54%), Argentina (44%), China (39%) and Mexico (39%).
Japan and Hungary sit tied in last place (7%), followed at the bottom of the list by
Belgium (8%), Great Britain (9%), France (9%) and Sweden (10%).
Countries with the greatest improvements: Indonesia (+5 to 31%), Poland (+4 to
16%), France (+4 to 9%), Russia (+4 to 18%), China (+3 to 39%) and Germany (+3
to 20%).
Countries with the greatest declines: Turkey (-9 to 25%), Brazil (-8 to 67%), Sweden
(-5 to 10%), Mexico (-4 to 39%), Italy (-2 to 12%), Spain (-2 to 14%), Japan (-2 to 7%)
and Australia (-2 to 14%).
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 11
The Economic Pulse
12. 1. National Economic Assessments: Countries at
a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
Those Countries Where the Country Economic Assessment…
is has experienced an has experienced a is
HIGHEST IMPROVEMENT DECLINE LOWEST
this month since last sounding since last sounding this month
Saudi Arabia 88% Belgium 7 Brazil 10 Spain 3%
India 70% Argentina 7 Sweden 7 Italy 3%
Germany 69% Indonesia 4 Mexico 5 Hungary 3%
Sweden 64% Russia 3 United States 4 Japan 9%
China 63% China 1 Australia 3 France 9%
Canada 62% Japan 1 Turkey 2 Great Britain 10%
Australia 61% Germany 1 India 2 South Korea 20%
Brazil 49% Italy 2 United States 23%
Turkey 49% South Korea 2
Great Britain 2
South Africa 2
Hungary 1
Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
12
The Economic Pulse
13. 1. National Economic Assessment: Regions at
a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
CHANGE
REGION NET
(since last
(in descending order by NET) ‘Good’
sounding)
Middle East/Africa 57% 1%
BRIC 55% 2%
APAC 43% 1%
North America (Can/US) 42% 3%
LATAM 41% 2%
G8 28% N/C
Europe 24% N/C
Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 13
The Economic Pulse
14. 2. Local Economic Assessment: Countries at
a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
Those Countries Where the Local Area Economic Assessment…
has experienced a
is has experienced an is
DECLINE
HIGHEST IMPROVEMENT LOWEST
since last
this month since last sounding this month
sounding
Saudi Arabia 64% Belgium 5 China 7 Spain 4%
Sweden 51% Argentina 4 Mexico 5 Japan 7%
India 50% Russia 4 India 4 Italy 8%
Germany 47% South Africa 4 Australia 3 Hungary 8%
China 46% Poland 3 Sweden 2 Great Britain 13%
Canada 45% United States 3 South Korea 1 France 15%
Brazil 41% France 2 Saudi Arabia 1 South Korea 16%
Turkey 40% Canada 1 Indonesia 1 Belgium 19%
Hungary 1 Spain 1
Italy 1
Turkey 1
Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,
where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 14
The Economic Pulse
15. 2. Local Economic Assessment: Regions at
a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
REGION NET CHANGE
(in descending order by NET) ‘Strong’ (since last sounding)
Top 3 Box (5-6-7)
Middle East/Africa 45% 1%
BRIC 40% 2%
North America 34% 2%
LATAM 30% N/C
APAC 30% 1%
G-8 Countries 22% 1%
Europe 21% 1%
Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7,
where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 15
The Economic Pulse
16. 3. Six Month Outlook on the Local Economy: Countries
at a Glance Compared to the Last Wave…
Countries where the Assessment of the Local Economic Strengthening …
is has experienced an has experienced a is
HIGHEST IMPROVEMENT DECLINE LOWEST
this month since last sounding since last sounding this month
Brazil 67% Indonesia 5 Turkey 9 Japan 7%
Saudi Arabia 57% Poland 4 Brazil 8 Hungary 7%
India 54% France 4 Sweden 5 Belgium 8%
Argentina 44% Russia 4 Mexico 4 Great Britain 9%
China 39% China 3 Italy 2 France 9%
Mexico 39% Germany 3 Spain 2 Sweden 10%
Indonesia 31% Belgium 2 Japan 2 Italy 12%
Turkey 25% Canada 1 Australia 2 Spain 14%
United States 25% South Korea 1 India 1 Australia 14%
Great Britain 1
Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be
much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 16
The Economic Pulse
17. 3. Six Month Outlook on Local Economy: Regions at
a Glance Compared to Last Wave…
REGION NET CHANGE
(in descending order by NET) ‘Stronger’ (since last sounding)
LATAM 50% 4%
BRIC 44% 1%
Middle East/Africa 32% 3%
APAC 25% 1%
North America 23% N/C
G-8 Countries 15% 1%
Europe 12% 1%
Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be
much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now? A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 17
The Economic Pulse
18. DETAILED FINDINGS
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 18
The Economic Pulse
19. Assessing The Current Economic
Situation …
…in Their Country
Detailed Tables B.3
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 19
The Economic Pulse
20. Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their
Country as “Good”
‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’
Total 37%
Saudi Arabia 88%
India 70%
Germany 69%
*Denmark 69%
Sweden 64%
China 63%
Canada 62%
Australia 61%
Brazil 49%
Turkey 49%
Argentina 45%
Indonesia 40%
Russia 36%
*Kenya 35%
South Africa 33%
Belgium 28%
Mexico 28%
Poland 25%
United States 23%
South Korea 20%
Great Britain 10%
France 9%
Japan 9%
Hungary 3%
Italy 3%
Spain 3%
*Kenya and *Denmark were not in G@ aggregate.
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic
situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 20
The Economic Pulse
21. Global Average Tracked - Global Citizens Assess the Current
Economic Situation in their Country as “Good”:… 1
Total Good
70%
60% 56%55%
50% 45%
42%41%41%
40%41%40% 40%41% 40%41%40%40%
38%38%39%39% 38% 38%39%38%39%38%39%39%39%38%37%
40% 32%
29%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Mar/11
Mar/12
Oct/07
Oct/10
Oct/11
Nov/08
Nov/10
Nov/11
Jan/11
Jan/12
May/10
Nov/Jan/10
Jun/10
Feb/11
May/11
Jun/11
Feb/12
May/12
Jul/10
Jul/11
Sep/10
Dec/10
Sep/11
Dec/11
Aug/10
Aug/11
Apr/07
Apr/08
Apr/09
Apr/10
Apr/11
Apr/12
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 21
The Economic Pulse
23. Countries Ranked and Marked By Change In Assessment From Last Month
(Left Column) Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert
country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
% Very Good / Somewhat Good
Total (-1) 37%
Belgium (+7) 28%
Argentina (+7) 45%
Indonesia (+4) 40%
Russia (+3) 36%
China (+1) 63%
Japan (+1) 9%
Germany (+1) 69%
Canada (N/C) 62%
France (N/C) 9%
Poland (N/C) 25%
Saudi Arabia (N/C) 88%
Spain (N/C) 3%
Hungary (-1) 3%
South Africa (-2) 33% Green marks countries experiencing improvement;
Great Britain (-2) 10% Blue marks countries with no change from last month;
South Korea (-2)
Red marks countries experiencing a decline…
20%
Italy (-2) 3%
India (-2) 70%
Turkey (-2) 49%
Australia (-3) 61%
United States (-4) 23%
Mexico (-5) 28%
Sweden (-7) 64%
Brazil (-10) 49%
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 23
The Economic Pulse
24. Countries Ranked by Net Improvement, Decline or No Change Compared to
Last Month: Thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Belgium (+7) 7%
Argentina (+7) 7%
Indonesia (+4) 4%
Russia (+3) 3%
China (+1) 1%
Japan (+1) 1%
Germany (+1) 1%
Canada (N/C) 0%
France (N/C) 0%
Poland (N/C) 0%
Saudi Arabia (N/C) 0%
Spain (N/C) 0%
-1% Hungary (-1)
-2% South Africa (-2)
-2% Great Britain (-2)
-2% South Korea (-2)
-2% Italy (-2)
-2% India (-2)
-2% Turkey (-2)
-3% Australia (-3)
-4% United States (-4)
-5% Mexico (-5)
-7% Sweden (-7)
-10% Brazil (-10)
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 24
The Economic Pulse
25. Assessing the Current Economic Situation by All Regions:
“Very Good / Somewhat Good”
80%
71%
70%
64%
60% 61%
57%
55%
50% 51%
45% 43%
42%
40%
41%
30%
28%
20% 24%
10%
Mar/10
Mar/11
Mar/12
Oct/07
Oct/10
Oct/11
Nov/08
Nov/10
Nov/11
Jan/11
Jan/12
May/10
Nov/Jan/10
Jun/10
Feb/11
May/11
Jun/11
Feb/12
May/12
Jul/10
Sept/10
Jul/11
Sept/11
Dec/10
Dec/11
Aug/10
Aug/11
Apr/07
Apr/08
Apr/09
Apr/10
Apr/11
Apr/12
North America (Can/US) LATAM Europe APAC G8 BRIC Middle East/Africa
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 25
The Economic Pulse
26. North American (Canada/US) Countries
Assessing the Current Economic Situation 3
‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’
100%
90%
80%
80%
70%
62%
60%
47%
50%
40%
30%
23%
20%
10%
0%
Mar/11
Mar/12
Oct/11
Nov/11
Jan/12
Apr 2007
Apr 2008
Nov 2008
Apr 2009
Apr 2010
Nov 2010
May/11
Jan 2011
Jun/11
Feb/12
May/12
Jul/11
Sept/11
Mar 2010
May 2010
Aug 2010
Dec/11
Nov/Jan 2010
Jun 2010
Feb 2011
Jul 2010
Sept 2010
Oct 2007
Oct 2010
Dec 2010
Aug/11
Apr/11
Apr/12
United States Canada
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 26
The Economic Pulse
27. LATAM Countries
Assessing the Current Economic Situation 2
‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’
80%
70%
60%
50% 50% 49%
42% 45%
40%
30%
28%
20%
10%
0%
Nov-08
Nov-10
Nov-11
Mar-10
May-10
Jun-10
Feb-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jun-11
Feb-12
Mar-12
May-12
Nov-09/Jan-10
Jul-10
Sept-10
Jul-11
Sept-11
Oct-07
Oct-10
Dec-10
Oct-11
Dec-11
Jan-11
Jan-12
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Aug-10
Aug-11
Brazil Argentina Mexico
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 27
The Economic Pulse
28. European Countries
Assessing the Current Economic Situation
N/C
‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’
90%
80%
70% 69%
64% 64%
60% 59%
50% 50%
40%
30%
28% 28%
27% 25%
20%
10%
10% 9%
2% 3%
0%
Nov-08
Nov-10
Nov-11
Mar-10
May-10
Jun-10
Feb-11
Mar-11
May-11
Feb-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-10
Jun-11
Jul-11
Sept-11
Oct-07
Sep-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Oct-11
Dec-11
Jan-11
Jan-12
Nov/Jan 2010
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Aug-10
Aug-11
Germany France Spain Sweden Great Britain Belgium Italy Hungary Poland
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 28
The Economic Pulse
29. APAC Countries
Assessing the Current Economic Situation
1
‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’
100%
90% 90%
88%
80%
78%
70% 70%
65%
63%
60%
61%
50%
40% 40%
36%
30%
20% 20%
16%
10% 9%
0%
Nov-08
Nov-10
Nov-11
Mar-10
May-10
Jun-10
Feb-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jun-11
Feb-12
Mar-12
May-12
Nov-09/Jan-10
Jul-10
Jul-11
Sept-11
Oct-07
Sep-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Oct-11
Dec-11
Jan-11
Jan-12
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Aug-10
Aug-11
Australia China India Japan Russia South Korea Indonesia
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? A Global @dvisory – June 2012 – G@33 29
The Economic Pulse