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Ipsos MORI June Political Monitor

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As the Conservative leadership contest gathers pace, Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor reveals that there is little to choose between Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson in terms of public opinion.

Publicado en: Noticias y política
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Ipsos MORI June Political Monitor

  1. 1. 1Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 1 June 2019 POLITICAL MONITOR
  2. 2. 2Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 2 June 2019 VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?. Voting Intention: June 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,043 British adults 18+, 21– 25 June 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 787 Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures. ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +5 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +2 26% 24% 22% 12% 8% 1% CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEMS BREXIT PARTY GREEN UKIP 30% 25% 21% 11% 7% 1% CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM BREXIT PARTY GREEN UKIP
  4. 4. 4Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?. Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 May15 Jul15 Sep15 Nov15 Jan16 Mar16 May16 Jul16 Sep16 Nov16 Jan17 Mar17 May17 Jul17 Sep17 Nov17 Jan18 Mar18 May18 Jul18 Sep18 Nov18 Jan19 Mar19 May19 Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) CONSERVATIVE 26% LABOUR 24% GENERAL ELECTION % June ‘19 May resigns as PM (May 19)
  5. 5. 5Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan04 Apr04 Jul04 Oct04 Jan05 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr06 Jul06 Oct06 Jan07 Apr07 Jul07 Oct07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct08 Jan09 Apr09 Jul09 Oct09 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Jan16 Apr16 Jul16 Oct16 Jan17 Apr17 Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?. Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – June ‘19 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07) CONSERVATIVE 26% LABOUR 24% UKIP 1% GREEN 8% LIB DEM 22% GENERAL ELECTION % June ‘19 THE BREXIT PARTY 12%
  6. 6. 6Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 6 June 2019 SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
  7. 7. 7Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn The GovernmentVince Cable ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB. AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ LEADER OF THE BREXIT PARTY?. Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: June 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,043 British adults 18+ 21-25 June 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” 75% 8% 17% 40% 27% 33% DISSATISFIED DON’T KNOW SATISFIED -0.5% SWING FROM MAY 2019 -2.5% SWING FROM MAY 2019 -1% SWING FROM MAY 2019 -1.5% SWING FROM MAY 2019 NET=-58 NET=-7 NET=-77NET=-44 69% 7% 25% 8% 7% 85 % Nigel Farage 54% 11% 35% NET=-19
  8. 8. 8Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR/LIB DEM PARTY/THE BREXIT PARTY?. Satisfaction with Party leaders September 2015 – June 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Oct17 Nov17 Dec17 Jan18 Feb18 Mar18 Apr18 May18 Jun18 Jul18 Aug18 Sep18 Oct18 Nov18 Dec18 Jan19 Feb19 Mar19 Apr19 May19 2016 EU Ref % satisfied MAY 25% CORBYN 17% CABLE 33% GENERAL ELECTION June ‘19 FARAGE 35%
  9. 9. 9Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019) Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER NETSATISFACTION May Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
  10. 10. 10Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?. Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2019) Corbyn NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER NETSATISFACTION CORBYN BLAIR SMITH KINNOCK MILLIBAND FOOT CAMERON DUNCAN-SMITH HAGUE HOWARD Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
  11. 11. 11Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY? Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019) Theresa May’s Government NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT NETSATISFACTION MAY’S GOV BLAIR’S GOV MAJOR’S GOV CAMERON’S GOV THATCHER’S GOV BROWN’S GOV Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
  12. 12. 12Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?. Theresa May Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor June 2019 August 2016 – June 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 69% Dissatisfied 7% Don’t know 25% Satisfied NET = -44 Satisfaction DISSATISFIED 69% SATISFIED 25% % Base: 1,043 British adults 18+ 21-25 June 2019
  13. 13. 13Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?. Theresa May Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 252 Conservative supporters 18+ 21-25 June 2019 June 2019 August 2016 – June 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 46% Dissatisfied 5% Don’t know 50% Satisfied NET = -4 DISSATISFIED 50% SATISFIED 46% Satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters %
  14. 14. 14Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Jeremy Corbyn Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor June 2019 September 2015 – June 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 . SATISFIED 17% DISSATISFIED 75% ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?. NET = -58 Satisfaction 75% Dissatisfied 8% Don’t know 17% Satisfied % Base: 1,043 British adults 18+ 21-25 June 2019
  15. 15. 15Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Jeremy Corbyn Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 184 Labour supporters 18+ 21-25 June 2019 June 2019 September 2015 – June 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?. NET = -2 Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters 46% Dissatisfied 10% Don’t know 44% Satisfied SATISFIED 44% DISSATISFIED 46% %
  16. 16. 16Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Vince Cable Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor June 2019 September 2017 – June 2019 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 DISSATISFIED 40% SATISFIED 33% ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?. NET = -7 33% Dissatisfied 27% Don’t know 40% Satisfied Satisfaction % Base: 1,043 British adults 18+ 21-25 June 2019
  17. 17. 17Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 17 June 2019 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
  18. 18. 18Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?. Economic Optimism Index Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor June 2019 EOI = -44 57% 23% 13% 7% GET WORSE STAY THE SAME Don’t know GET BETTER Stay the same Get worse Improve % January 2007 – June 2019 May ‘19 Base: 1,043 British adults 18+ 21-25 June 2019
  19. 19. 19Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?. Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jan1998 Oct1998 Jul1999 Apr2000 Jan2001 Oct2001 Jul2002 Apr2003 Jan2004 Oct2004 Jul2005 Apr2006 Jan2007 Oct2007 Jul2008 Apr2009 Jan2010 Oct2010 Jul2011 Apr2012 Jan2013 Oct2013 Jul2014 Apr2015 Jan2016 Oct2016 Jul2017 Apr2018 Jan2019 NET OPTIMISM=-44 Jun2019 June ‘19
  20. 20. 20Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 20 June 2019 CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP CONTEST
  21. 21. 21Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICIANS. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO …? Leader image 64% 27% 33% 27% 40% 28% 54% 25% 79% 28% 62% 50% 32% 37% 36% 39% 25% 29% 31% 18% 41% 53% Patriotic Good in a crisis Capable leader Has sound judgement Understands problems facing Britain Gives confidence for Britain’s future More style than substance More honest than most politicians Has got a lot of personality Good representative for GB on world stage JEREMY HUNT Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Out of touch with ordinary people Johnson v Hunt BORIS JOHNSON Base: 1,043 British adults 18+ 21-25 June 2019 Boris Johnson +14 Jeremy Hunt +5 Jeremy Hunt +4 Boris Johnson +9 Boris Johnson +1 Boris Johnson +3 Boris Johnson +25 Jeremy Hunt +6 Boris Johnson +61 Jeremy Hunt +13 Boris Johnson +9
  22. 22. 22Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? Prime Minister material? 31% 34% 42% 53% Jeremy Hunt Boris Johnson AGREE DISAGREE AGREE NET Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor -19 SINCE SWING MAY ‘19 +10 Base: 1,043 British adults 18+, 252 Conservative party supporters, 21-25 June 2019, Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “agree” and % “disagree” Among all 53% 59% 24% 28% Jeremy Hunt Boris Johnson Among Conservative party supporters -11 +31 +29 +11 +24 +20.5
  23. 23. 23Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT … HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? Prime Minister material? BORIS JOHNSON -19% Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor -22% -20% -49% -55% -41% -39% -40%-39% -19% 10% 5% -45% -36% -26% -12% -26% -17% 31% -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 NET AGREE Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Apr-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 May-19 Base: c.1,000 British adults, c.200-300 Conservative Party supporters each month AMONG GENERAL PUBLIC Boris Johnson BORIS JOHNSON +31% AMONG CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS Jun-19
  24. 24. 24Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE PRIME MINISTER, THE CONSERVATIVE’S … OR LABOUR’S JEREMY CORBYN? Most capable Prime Minister 51% 52% 33% 29% Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Jeremy Hunt Jeremy Corbyn Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn AMONG ALL 35% 40% 49% 40% Jeremy Hunt Jeremy Corbyn Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn AMONG NON-CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS Base: 1,043 British adults 18+, 667 Non-Conservative party supporters 21-25 June 2019”
  25. 25. 25Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public IF JEREMY HUNT/BORIS JOHNSON WAS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY, HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY WOULD YOU BE TO CONSIDER VOTING CONSERVATIVE AT THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION? WOULD YOU BE…? Likelihood to vote Conservative in the future 14% 32% 84% 62% Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Jeremy Hunt Boris Johnson Among all Among Non-Conservative party supporters 21% 36% 77% 59% Among all Among Non-Conservative party supporters LIKELY UNLIKELY Base: 1,043 British adults 18+, 667 Non-Conservative party supporters 21-25 June 2019”
  26. 26. 26Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 26 June 2019 BREXIT
  27. 27. 27Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF THEY WERE PRIME MINISTER, HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, WOULD YOU BE THAT THEY WOULD GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS? Confidence in getting a good Brexit deal for Britain 37% 33% 41% 52% 64% 53% Jeremy Hunt Boris Johnson CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT JUNE 2019 JUNE 2019 SEP 2018 Base: 1,043 British adults 18 21-25 June 2019”
  28. 28. 28Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF THEY WERE PRIME MINISTER, HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, WOULD YOU BE THAT THEY WOULD GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS? Confidence in getting a good Brexit deal for Britain 60% 47% 62% 31% 48% 33% Jeremy Hunt Boris Johnson CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT JUNE 2019 JUNE 2019 SEP 2018 Among Conservative party supporters Base: 252 Conservative party supporters 21-25 June 2019”
  29. 29. 29Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Conservative party leadership candidates and their position on Brexit WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING AND THEIR APPROACH TO BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION (BREXIT)? 49% 61% 64% 63% 26% 37% 38% 39% 32% 20% 27% 28% 53% 42% 53% 52% Jeremy Hunt Boris Johnson LIKE DO NOT LIKE Boris Johnson Johnson’s approach to Brexit Jeremy Hunt Hunt’s approach to Brexit AMONG CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS AMONG ALL Jeremy Hunt Boris Johnson Boris Johnson Johnson’s approach to Brexit Jeremy Hunt Hunt’s approach to Brexit Base: 1,043 British adults 18+, 252 Conservative party supporters 21-25 June 2019”
  30. 30. 30Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 28% I like him and I like his approach to Brexit 11% I like him but I do not like his approach to Brexit 10% I do not like him but I like his approach to Brexit 42% I do not like him and I do not like his approach to Brexit 8% Don’t know WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR APPROACH TO BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION (BREXIT)? Boris Johnson and his position on Brexit v Boris Johnson and his Brexit position Total like him 39% Total do not like him 52% Total like his approach to Brexit 38% Total do not like his approach to Brexit 53% Base: 1,043 British adults 18+ 21-25 June 2019”
  31. 31. 31Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 19% I like him and I like his approach to Brexit 18% I like him but I do not like his approach to Brexit 7% I do not like him but I like his approach to Brexit 35% I do not like him and I do not like his approach to Brexit 21% Don’t know WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR APPROACH TO BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION (BREXIT)? Jeremy Hunt and his position on Brexit v Jeremy Hunt and his Brexit position Total like him 37% Total do not like him 42% Total like his approach to Brexit 26% Total do not like his approach to Brexit 53% Base: 1,043 British adults 18+ 21-25 June 2019”
  32. 32. 32Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 32 October 2018 Ipsos MORI June 2019 Political Monitor Gideon Skinner Research Director gideon.skinner@ipsos.com Keiran Pedley Research Director keiran.pedley@ipsos.com Glenn Gottfried Research Manager glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com For more information

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