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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020

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Economic optimism has fallen to its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, according to Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor. The new poll, conducted between 13-16 March, so before some of this week’s emergency measures were announced, shows seven in ten (69%) now say they think the economy will get worse in the next 12 months – this is up from 42% in February. Just 15% think that the economy will improve, leaving an Economic Optimism Index score of -54. The last time pessimism was this low was in November 2008 (at its worst during the 2008 crisis 75% thought the economy would get worse). Despite this pessimism, around half (49%) believe the Government is handling the coronavirus outbreak well (35% say badly).

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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020

  1. 1. © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR MARCH 2020
  2. 2. © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential VOTING INTENTION
  3. 3. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public3 Voting Intention: March 2020 All giving a voting intentionHeadline voting intention Conservative lead = +20Conservative lead = +22 52% 30% 9% 0% 4% 5% Conservative Labour Lib Dems Brexit Party Green Other 51% 31% 8% 0% 4% 6% Conservative Labour Lib Dem Brexit Party Green Other Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13 – 16 March 2020; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 713. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures. How do you intend to vote in the General Election? Will you vote…?
  4. 4. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 May15 Jul15 Sep15 Nov15 Jan16 Mar16 May16 Jul16 Sep16 Nov16 Jan17 Mar17 May17 Jul17 Sep17 Nov17 Jan18 Mar18 May18 Jul18 Sep18 Nov18 Jan19 Mar19 May19 Jul19 Sep19 Nov19 Jan20 Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) Headline voting intention: 2015 General Election 4 52% Conservative % March 2020 Johnson as PM (July 19) Mar20 Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 30% Labour General Election How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?
  5. 5. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan04 Apr04 Jul04 Oct04 Jan05 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr06 Jul06 Oct06 Jan07 Apr07 Jul07 Oct07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct08 Jan09 Apr09 Jul09 Oct09 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Jan16 Apr16 Jul16 Oct16 Jan17 Apr17 Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) Johnson as PM (July 19) Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07) Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – March ’20 % Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor March 2020 52% Conservative 30% Labour 9% Lib Dem 0% The Brexit Party 4% Green 0% UKIP General Election 5 How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow? Mar20
  6. 6. © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
  7. 7. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn The Government Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: March 2020 7 68% 14% 19% Dissatisfied Don’t know Satisfied +5% swing from Feb 2020 +8.5% swing from Feb 2020 Net=-49 38% 9% 52% Net=+7Net=+14% +5.5% swing from Feb 2020 Base: 1,003 British adults 18+ 13 - 16 March 2020. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his/her job. as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party? 41% 10% 48%
  8. 8. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public Boris Johnson: Satisfaction Net = +14 March 2020 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jul-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-20 52% Satisfied 9% Don’t know 38% Dissatisfied July 2019 – March 2020 52% Satisfied 38% Dissatisfied Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 8 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister? 52% 9% 38% Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
  9. 9. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters Net = +78% March 2020 87% Satisfied 4% Don’t know 9% Dissatisfied July 2019 – March 2020 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 411 Conservative party supporters 18+, 13 – 16 March 2020 9 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jul-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 87% Satisfied 9% Dissatisfied 87% 4% 9%
  10. 10. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2020) 10 Number of months after becoming prime minister Netsatisfaction Johnson Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Blair Major Cameron Johnson Brown Thatcher May Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister?
  11. 11. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2020) 11 Blair’s gov Major’s gov Cameron’s gov Johnson’s gov Brown’s gov Thatcher’s gov May’s gov Netsatisfaction Johnson Number of months after assuming government Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?
  12. 12. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jeremy Corbyn: Satisfaction Net = -49% March 2020 19% Satisfied 14% Don’t know 68% Dissatisfied September 2015 – March 2020 19% Satisfied 68% Dissatisfied Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 12 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? 19% 14% 68% Mar20 Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
  13. 13. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public Corbyn Corbyn Blair Smith Kinnock Miliband Foot Cameron Duncan-smith Hague Howard Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2020) Netsatisfaction Number of months after becoming opposition leader Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 13 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
  14. 14. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jeremy Corbyn: Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters Net = -10% March 2020 41% Satisfied 9% Don’t know 51% Dissatisfied September 2015 – March 2020 41% Satisfied 51% Dissatisfied Base: 284 Labour Party supporters aged 18+, 13-16 March 2020 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 14 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as leader of the Labour party? Mar-20 41% 10% 51%
  15. 15. © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
  16. 16. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public Economic Optimism Index 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 EOI = -54 March 2020 January 2007– March 2020 15% Improve 13% Stay the same Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 69% Get worse 69% 13% 15% 3% 69% Get worse 13% Stay the same 15% Improve 3% Don’t know 16 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13 – 16 March 2020
  17. 17. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public Economic Optimism Index (1998-2020) 17 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jan1998 Oct1998 Jul1999 Apr2000 Jan2001 Oct2001 Jul2002 Apr2003 Jan2004 Oct2004 Jul2005 Apr2006 Jan2007 Oct2007 Jul2008 Apr2009 Jan2010 Oct2010 Jul2011 Apr2012 Jan2013 Oct2013 Jul2014 Apr2015 Jan2016 Oct2016 Jul2017 Apr2018 Jan2019 Oct2019 Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Net optimism -54% Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Mar2020
  18. 18. © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential LABOUR LEADERSHIP CONTEST THE CORONAVIRUS
  19. 19. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public Handling of the Coronavirus outbreak 39% 41% 47% 49% 52% 23% 13% 38% 35% 14% Overall, how well or badly do you think each of the following have handled the coronavirus outbreak so far? If you do not know who the person is, please say so. Fieldwork: 13-16 March 19 Boris Johnson The Government Very/fairly well Net well +38 Very/fairly badly Chris Whitty The Chief Medical Officer for England Rishi Sunak Chancellor of the Exchequer Matt Hancock Secretary of State for Health and Social Care +14 +9 +28 +16 Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
  20. 20. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public Government measures in response to the Coronavirus 20 When thinking about the different measures the Government has taken so far in order to tackle the coronavirus outbreak, which of the following statements comes closest to your view? Fieldwork: 13-16 March 3% 50% 42% 4% The measures the Government has taken go too far and not all are necessary The measures the Government has taken are about right The measures the Government has taken do not go far enough and more should be done Don’t know Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
  21. 21. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public Likelihood of self-isolating for a week 21 34% 39% 1% 2% 13% 19% 25% 23% 14% 2% Less than half More than half Don’t know None of them Hardly any of them Less than half of them Around half of them More than half of them Nearly all of them All of them As you may know, the government has advised people with mild symptoms, such as having a high temperature or continuous cough, to self-isolate and stay at home for 7 days, regardless of whether they have been tested for the coronavirus. How many people, if any, with mild symptoms do you think will follow this advice and self-isolate themselves for seven days? Fieldwork: 13-16 March Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
  22. 22. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public Handling of the Coronavirus outbreak 54% 77% 65% 40% 17% 27%As you may know, this week’s /last week’s Budget included measures to help deal with the coronavirus outbreak. From what you know or have heard, how helpful, if at all, do you think these measures will be overall in tackling the coronavirus outbreak? Fieldwork: 13-16 March 22 Very/fairly helpful Net helpful +38 Among all Among Conservative party supporters Among Labour party supporters Not very/at all helpful +60 +14 Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, Conservative party supporters (411), Labour party supporters (284), 13-16 March 2020
  23. 23. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public Support for Budget measures in response to the Coronavirus 77% 81% 82% 84% 87% 92% 10% 6% 5% 6% 6% 3 And to what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose each of the following policies announced in the Budget to respond to the coronavirus outbreak? Fieldwork: 13-16 March 23 Support Net support +89 Oppose Providing a £5billion emergency response fund for the NHS and other public services +81 +78 +75 +67 Providing a £500 million hardship fund for councils in England to help vulnerable people in their areas Meeting the costs of up to two weeks’ worth of sick pay payments for firms with fewer than 250 staff Suspending business rates for a year for companies such as shops, cinemas, restaurants and hotels with rateable value of less than £51,000 Providing “business interruption” loans of up to £1.2million for small businesses Providing statutory sick pay for all those advised to self- isolate, even if they have not presented with symptoms +77 Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
  24. 24. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public Response to the Coronavirus: Bank of England Interest Rate Cut As you may know, the Bank of England recently announced it was cutting base interest rates from 0.75 to 0.25 per cent to help deal with the potential economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. To what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose this interest rate cut? Fieldwork: 13-16 March 24 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Support 70% 12% Oppose Net support: +58 Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
  25. 25. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public Cancellation of events due to coronavirus 71% 73% 75% 79% 19% 17% 14% 12% And would you support or oppose cancelling each of the following events in light of the coronavirus outbreak? Fieldwork: 13-16 March 25 The UEFA European Football Championship The remainder of the season for the main football leagues around Britain Support Net support +67 +61 +56 Oppose +52 The FA Cup The Wimbledon Tennis Championships Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
  26. 26. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public Response to the Coronavirus: Local and Mayoral Elections postponement 26 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Support Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020 72% 20% Oppose Net support: +52 As you may know England was scheduled to hold local and mayoral elections on the 7th of May this year, but the government has announced these will now be postponed for a year due to the coronavirus. Do you support or oppose postponing these elections? Fieldwork: 13-16 March
  27. 27. © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential THE BUDGET
  28. 28. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public Rishi Sunak: Satisfaction 28 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Rishi Sunak is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer? 37% 32% 30% Satisfied Dissatisfied Don’t know Among all Among Conservative party supporters 45% 17% 37% 63%7% 30% Net satisfaction: +28 Net satisfaction: +56 Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
  29. 29. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public Satisfaction with the Chancellor of the Exchequer: 1976-2020 29 Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Mar-76 Mar-77 Apr-78 Jul-80 Mar-82 Jun-83 Mar-85 Mar-86 Mar-87 Mar-88 Mar-89 Mar-90 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Dec-93 Dec-94 Nov-95 Dec-95 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jul-97 Feb-98 Mar-98 Mar-99 Feb-00 Mar-00 Jul-00 Sep-00 Nov-00 Mar-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Mar-04 Nov-05 Feb-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Mar-08 Mar-10 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Mar-13 Apr-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Nov-17 Nov-18 Oct-19 Mar-20 HEALEY HOWE LAWSON MAJOR LAMONT CLARKE BROWN DARLING OSBORNE HAMMOND %SATISFIED JAVID Rishi Sunak
  30. 30. © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public Opinion on the Budget proposals: 2014-2020 30 As you may know, the Government announced its 2020 budget this week/ last week. From what you know or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing….? You personally For the country 54% 41% 38% 30% 46% 48% 22% 38% 42% 53% 44% 33% March 2020 November 2017 March 2017 March 2016 July 2015 April 2014 45% 35% 33% 35% 45% 43% 24% 36% 39% 40% 38% 35% March 2020 November 2017 March 2017 March 2016 July 2015 April 2014 Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
  31. 31. Gideon Skinner Research Director gideon.skinner@ipsos.com Glenn Gottfried Research Manager glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com Cameron Garrett Senior Research Executive cameron.garrett@ipsos.com Ipsos MORI March 2020 Political Monitor For more information Dylan Spielman Research Executive dylan.spielman@ipsos.com

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