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Presentación Luis Puch webinar Ivie Cambio climático y transición energética

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Presentación Luis Puch webinar Ivie Cambio climático y transición energética

  1. 1. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex Climate Change and the Energy Transition: Energy and the Macroeconomy Luis A. Puch (UCM and ICAE) @lpuchg nadaesgratis.es with A. Dı́az, G. Marrero others IVIE Webinar Valencia, June 2022 Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 1 / 8
  2. 2. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex Preliminaries We take as given: (i) burning fossil fuels increases CO2 in the atmosphere, which → (ii) leads to Climate Change, that → (iii) is harmful to our welfare. Business as Usual: What are the costs? Damages (losses) and Adaptation (try to prevent the losses). ' 2% of global GDP (as warmed by 0.8o C at 400 vs preindustrial 280 ppm). Above 2o C could trigger potentially devastating events. Reach 6o C is there. Consequently, Is Climate Change an urgent problem? Yes! Is difficult to stop burning fossil fuels? Yes, but we can do a lot more! Yes, global! Yes, China! Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 2 / 8
  3. 3. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex How to tackle this CO2 Emissions (GHGs)/Climate Change urgent problem? Let’s start by looking to the Kaya(∗) identity CO2t ≡ intensive margin z }| { GDPt Populationt × extensive margin z }| { Populationt | {z } economic activity × energy intensity z }| { Energyt GDPt × carbon intensity z }| { CO2t Energyt | {z } energy use A way to relate the level of Emissions with Energy Use and the Macroeconomy... (∗)Yoichi Kaya (1993) Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 3 / 8
  4. 4. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex 1. ...or The Bad, The Good and The Ugly All data from the IEA Energy Balances Emissions Database, 2020 GDP: billion USD (PPPs); Population: millions; Energy use: million TOEs; Carbon Emissions flow: thousands of tones of CO2. Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 3 / 8
  5. 5. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex CO2 Emissions and GDP per capita Worldwide, in logs, 1970-2019 colors ⇒ high/middle/low income countries (World Bank). The Bad linear slope (elasticity) 1 “for the pool.” The Good Heterogeneity within income groups (slopes 1), Source: Dı́az, Marrero Puch (2016) updated Source: IEA PWT data Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 3 / 8
  6. 6. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex ..and The Ugly: for the electricity mix of the virtuous. Shares of the energy technologies in the electricity mix, 1990-2019 OECD WE16 Key difference: renewables brought about substitution away from coal in WE16! (+Germany in!) Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 3 / 8
  7. 7. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex 2. Transition what? Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 4 / 8
  8. 8. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex Transition what? Share of gas in OECD’s electricity mix has been unchanged at about 25% since 2010. Western Europe didn’t do well either. Guess: EU-ETS brought mostly substitution away from coal. Not enough! Also, note electricity (energy sector) is (just) 1/3rd of final energy consumption. Then, 1/3rd Transport 1/3rd the Rest (industry, services, residential,... ). ⇒ Problem with the Transport and Energy Models: Are we acting on this? And the fact is the contribution to carbon concentrations in the atmosphere by some Western European countries continues to increase. −→ See Annex. Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 4 / 8
  9. 9. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex Transition what? The big question The goal of the European Green Deal is to be climate-neutral by 2050. Target: Reducing, at least, 55% of 1990 emissions by 2030. Context to this: Share of EU 2019 CO2 Annual rates of CO2 reductions (%) CO2 2019 over 2030 target 2020-30 1990-2019 2019-20 EU 1.51 -4.04 -0.84 -13.14 France 10.18 1.52 -4.10 -0.71 -16.01 Germany 23.21 1.33 -2.84 -1.34 -11.24 Italy 11.25 1.58 -4.47 -0.69 -13.06 Spain 9.23 2.28 -7.92 -0.81 -18.68 CO2 Emissions Levels 2019 vs 2030 Target. Source: Own elaboration BP Stats Review 2021 Can we achieve 2030 target without GDP falling? Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 4 / 8
  10. 10. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex 3. Models: Theory and Empirical Dı́az and Puch (WPuc3m 2013–Revised 2019, BEJM 2018,...) Dı́az, Marrero and Puch (Ene Ecs, 2019 with J. Rodrı́guez-L, SERIEs, 2021 with J. Barrera-S, and 2022) Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 5 / 8
  11. 11. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex Models’ main messages Accounting for aggregate energy data Theory: capital-energy substitution takes time, and productivity and output costs. Investment in energy efficient capital is determined by the interaction of Technical Change (embodied) with energy prices. Empirical: Dynamic Panel Data Models (Kaya based), Worldwide Regions. 134 countries worldwide, 1960-2010 vs. WE-16. Economic growth Worldwide goes with ↓↓ Energy Intensity and ↑↑ Frontier (wind, solar,...) Renewables in the Mix (large sample; long period). The cycle matters (GDPpc growth), but Energy Intensity even more. In fact, it is not GDP growth. It is GDP growth whenever Energy Intensity is high. Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 5 / 8
  12. 12. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex Models’ main messages Quantitatively: ↓↓ Energy Intensity; Qualitatively: ↑↑ Renewables Big margin in ↓↓ Energy Ity Renewable Share still to ↑↑ Key difference: Investing in renewables breaks the link between Energy Intensity and CO2. Source: Dı́az, Marrero Puch (2022) Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 5 / 8
  13. 13. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex 4. Policy Implications Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 6 / 8
  14. 14. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex Two steps for 2030 Target Beyond medium-run targets, short-run action is needed. Absolute priority for policies to achieve conditional convergence in energy intensity standards across selected set of countries (fostering integration). This may favor a bottom-up design of international climatic agreements according to which regional progresses in regulations expand and integrate to other countries (Battaglini and Harstad, 2016). Cyclical concerns A recommendation for tax-based (and subsidies) cyclical climatic stabilization (as a complement to cap and trade), in the form of a carbon-dividend. For instance, procyclical fuel taxes and fuel economy standards in the transport sector, as well as procyclical regulations towards energy efficiency and inducement for renewable energies in the power sector. Pending: Who pays the bill in the end? What are the distributive aspects! Look into the Households. Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 6 / 8
  15. 15. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex Climate Change and the Energy Transition: Energy and the Macroeconomy Luis A. Puch (UCM and ICAE) @lpuchg nadaesgratis.es with A. Dı́az, G. Marrero others IVIE Webinar Valencia, June 2022 Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 7 / 8
  16. 16. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex Annex Transition what? Carbon emissions and economic activity, 1980-2019 Avge GDPpc growth: 1.54% vs 1.69%; Avge CO2pc growth: -1.34% vs -0.01% (in 40 years!) Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 8 / 8
  17. 17. Motivation Transition? Models Policy Annex Annex How can Spain be doing so poorly? Spain Luis A. Puch (ICAE, UCM) Climate Change Energy Transition 8 / 8

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