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Future of Global Health & Medical Technology 2020-2030

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Health Transformation - SpectRx™ Tech Consumerization: Biotech P54, Gene P65/ 71, Stem Cell (Blood, Nerve, Muscle, Bone etc. Tissues) P73, 3D Printing Organ P80, Anti-Aging P89, 405-Year Ocean Animal Not Age P97, Nation Identity (Standard) P104
More Rational Politicians-Healthier People & Consumption Economy Efficiency(Quantum Tech Progress)-Cognitive Culture-Social-Ecology Innovation, Intelligent Human Brain Evolution P104-116

Publicado en: Tecnología
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Future of Global Health & Medical Technology 2020-2030

  1. 1. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Future of Global Health and Medical Technology 2020-2030
  2. 2. Every  health   trend  will   impact  all  other   health  trends    
  3. 3. Cloud Nanotech Mobile Biotech Genes + Cells Digital Connect Atoms Converging - Combinations
  4. 4.  Expect  convergence   and  compe66on   between  pharma,   biotech  and  medtech   in  finding  answers  to   major  condi6ons
  5. 5. ONE  WORD   will  drive  the   future  of  health  
  6. 6. The future is about EMOTION
  7. 7. Demographics   will  be  greatest   predictor  of   future  demand    
  8. 8. 1 billion children alive today
  9. 9.  Growth  in  global   health  spend  will  be   driven  by  growth  of   middle  class  in   emerging  na6ons
  10. 10. — IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity >40% WDP by 2015
  11. 11. 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  12. 12. Megacities mean greater risks of viral epidemics like Ebola with global impact
  13. 13. ! 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
  14. 14. Europe Dying ! 4 couples to produce single great-grand child ! S Korea children per couple fell from 6 to 1.2 - 1950-2000
  15. 15. Title Text • Body Level One – Body Level Two • Body Level Three – Body Level Four » Body Level Five
  16. 16.  >65%  of  health   spend  will  be   on  people     >65  years  old
  17. 17. Chronic Conditions – Multiple Needs • 100 million Americans have chronic conditions • 80% of health spending • 88% of all prescriptions • 70% of physician visits • 66% Medicare cost = people with 5+ conditions Almost all caused by people getting older
  18. 18.  Expect  major  global   demand  for  preven6on  and   treatment  for  cancer,  heart,   brain,  chronic  wounds,   infec6ons,  infer6lity,   arthri6s  and  diabetes
  19. 19. Pharma   Companies     WILL  find  new   blockbusters  e.g.   Alzheimers  /  Obesity  
  20. 20. Alzheimers  commonest  cause  of  death  in  UK  women 2010-­‐2050  demen6a
  21. 21. 1  in  3  babies  in  New  York  will  develop     adult-­‐type  diabetes  -­‐  cost  $100bn  a  year  
  22. 22. Imaging  and   Diagnos6cs  will   be  dominated   by  3D  and  HD    
  23. 23. 27
  24. 24. Cloud Processing
  25. 25. • Positron emission tomography • Magnetic nuclear resonance
  26. 26. Imaging and Robotics
  27. 27. Food moth larva silk gland ! ! Fat cells Cuticular
  28. 28. Mouse Retina
  29. 29.  Micro-­‐surgery   will  transform   hospital  care    
  30. 30. • $75bn endoscopy market by 2022 ($23bn 2010)
  31. 31. • 125,000 stents or carotid surgery a year in US
  32. 32. Length  of   hospital  stay   will  fall  rapidly    
  33. 33. Virtual Medicine
  34. 34. Wearable   Health  Devices   will  be  almost   universal    
  35. 35. Home Tele-Monitoring
  36. 36.  Most  pa6ents   will  know  more   than  their   physicians  about   their  condi6on  
  37. 37. Search: know more than your doctor !
  38. 38. Home  Care  will   grow  very  fast   especially  for   old  people  
  39. 39. ! ! • Diabetes, congestive heart failure, obstructive pulmonary •2.2 million at home •> $22bn by 2015 •Mobile telephony
  40. 40. Biotech  will   drive  most   pharma   innova6on    
  41. 41. coatings and robots
  42. 42. Build Nanotech Robots as Biotech Therapies
  43. 43. • Adenovirus contains Math1 gene • Turns young ear cells into hair cells • Inject virus particles into inner ear • New hair cells grow near Organ of Corti ! • Research in Guinea Pigs Cure for Deafness ?
  44. 44. Confidential HSV1  causes  cold  sores.   When  engineered  as   Seprehvir  (HSV-­‐1716),  it  is   harmless  to  healthy  @ssue. •Oncolytic viruses •Infect and kill cancer tumour cells •No damage to healthy tissue •Evidence of impact in clinical trials •Able to deliver new genes into cancer cells •Micro-dose chemo, micro-dose radiotherapy Viruses to cure cancer
  45. 45. Electronic  Medical   Records  will  mean   beer  decisions   using  Big  Data
  46. 46. ! ! ! Product scanning means safety ! Computer-aided decisions save lives and time
  47. 47. Ottawa Hospital, Ontario - 3000 ipads Mayo Clinic - 2000 ipads !
  48. 48. • Zettabyte = 1024 Exabytes
 Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes
 Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes
 Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes That's a data explosion of 44x in ! Big Data
  49. 49. Gene  screening   will  dominate   disease   preven6on  
  50. 50. Genetic Prophecy
  51. 51. Genes for old age, speech, memory, criminality, depression, obesity and stable relationships
  52. 52. • Fluidics • Biochemistry • Semiconductors • Genetics • Mathematics • Immunology • Robotics Read genome in 2 hours for $5,000
  53. 53. Organ  Repair   will  be  rou6ne   using  own  cells    
  54. 54. Stem Cells
  55. 55. • Pigs teeth grown inside rats • Mice grow new teeth from nerve cells / gum tissue Grow New Teeth
  56. 56. Repair of heart, retina, brain or spinal cord
 using adult stem cells
 
 
 Repair Heart / Brain
  57. 57. Competition in spinal cord damage from chips implanted into brain
  58. 58. New insulin cells in capsules to protect from immune system
 
 
 Repair Pancreas to treat diabetes
  59. 59. 79 Competition from implanted devices containing insulin
  60. 60. Print Elastomere
  61. 61. We can print layers of living cells....
  62. 62. Print New Skin (Lexmar)
  63. 63.  Life  expectancy  in   most  na6ons  will   increase  by  far   more  than  1  week   every  month
  64. 64. Performance Shift in retail health care from health treatment to life enhancement
  65. 65. Want to look better
  66. 66. may be Want to think better...... •20%  students  in  US  use  memory-­‐ enhancing  drugs  to  pass  their  exams  
  67. 67. An6-­‐Ageing  will   be  a  global   obsession  -­‐  with   rapid  progress    
  68. 68. Can we stop ageing ?
  69. 69. 7  mechanisms  of  ageing  in  animal  and  human  cells   •Cell  loss  or  atrophy  without  replacement   •Oncogenic  nuclear  muta6ons  and  epimuta6ons   •Mitochondrial  muta6ons   •Cell  senescence  (death  resistant)   •Intra-­‐cellular  junk   •Extra-­‐cellular  junk  (affects  cells)   •Random  extra-­‐cellular  cross-­‐linking  
  70. 70. Worn out Mitochondria – Energy Boost
 
 R-alpha-lipoic acid Acetyl-L-carnitine
  71. 71. • Adenovirus • Infected mouse hair cells • Permanent colour change Permanent Hair Colour
  72. 72. Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries – and helps wrinkled skin. Global sales? Low blood pressure and total body lift ! ! ! ! ! ! Alteon
  73. 73. Monkeys on diet live longer • After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay 96
  74. 74. Slow or no ageing is a reality • Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales ! • No signs of getting old Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) — 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise — 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam — 405 years Some animals do not seem to “age” in normal way
  75. 75. Many  health   costs  will  fall   while  total   spending  will  rise
  76. 76. Faster healing
  77. 77. Negative Pressure Healing
  78. 78. Adenoviral human telomerase reverse transcriptase
  79. 79. Funding  of   Health  Care  will   be  sensi6ve   poli6cal  issue    
  80. 80. Patent Expiry 3000 Canadian Pharma Patents 2003-11 ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  81. 81. Ra6oning  of   health  care  will   be  seen  in   every  na6on  
  82. 82. Irrational Rationing
  83. 83. Rationing all government Health competes with .... Specialties compete Diseases / Patient groups Treatment methods Greatest impact for greatest number Competition
  84. 84. Transurethral resection Laser destruction Microwave destruction Heat destruction Da Vinci robot Competition
  85. 85. Patient campaigns / Google Legal / IT linked decisions Financial incentives Patient experience /quality life Local skills / experience Appropriate infrastructure Impact on rationing
  86. 86.  Expect  rapid  growth   globally  in  private   medical  care,  health   insurance  and   medical  tourism
  87. 87.  Expect  many  new   ethical  challenges  e.g.   beginning  and  end  of   life,  data  privacy,  who   owns  genes,  gene6c   discrimina6on
  88. 88.  One  of  greatest   ethical  challenges  will   be  improving  access   to  health  care  in   poorest  na6ons
  89. 89. 1 in 12 in Liberia – UNICEF 1 in 10 women die in childbirth in some parts of Northern Mozambique
  90. 90. 115 1.8 million small children die every year because of dirty water supplies
  91. 91. In a global village, every local health problem can have a global impact - so expect more global health initiatives
  92. 92. ! ! Crea6ng  a  Beer  World Expect  rapid  innova6on  in  medical   technology  with  many  startups  and  health   products  launched  by  technology  giants  -­‐   with  major  investment  in  S  Korea
  93. 93. globalchange.com - slides and videos 
 Future of Health Care

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