7. 6.25
6 25-34 Year Olds 5.9
5.75 Living with Parents 5.5
5.5
in millions 5.2
5.25 5.1
5
4.7
4.75 4.6
4.5 4.3 4.3
4.25
4
4
3.75
3.5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
John Burns Consulting 12/09/2011
8. Gen X&Y Believe in Homeownership
80% 75%
Fundamental Indicator of Success
BH&G national survey of 18-35 year-old Americans
60%
40%
20%
12% 9%
5%
0%
Owning a Taking Owning an Owning
Nice Home Extravagant Expensive Designer
Vacations Car Clothing
Realogy 10/22/2012
9. Young Adults & Homeownership
“Surveys consistently find that the overwhelming majority of
young adults plan to own a home in the future, but many
would-be buyers have stayed on the sidelines waiting for the
job outlook to improve and house prices to stop falling. But
as markets tighten, these fence-sitters may begin to take
advantage of today’s lower home prices and unusually low
mortgage rates.”
Eric S. Belsky - Managing Director Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University
Joint Center For Housing Studies Of Harvard University 6/2012
10. Benefits of Homeownership
When children grow up in a home that is owner occupied, they do better
in school, according to a new study by professors Richard K. Green and
Gary D. Painter at the University of Southern California and Michelle J.
White at the University of San Diego.
“Our findings reaffirm
the idea that home
ownership, in and of
itself, predicts positive
outcomes for children.
This result applies to the
likelihood both of
children remaining in
school, and girls not
bearing children
as teenagers.”
Housing America 10/23/2012
13. Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Fixed
5.25
5
4.75
4.5
4.25
4
3.75
3.5
3.25 1/01/2011 Today
Federal Reserve
14. Mortgage Rates Moving Forward
“After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates are
expected to creep up slowly in the year ahead, the
Mortgage Bankers Association predicted.
Rates on the 30-year fixed- Projected Average 30 Year Rate
4.5
4.4
rate mortgage are expected 4.4
to average 3.8% in the 4.3
4.2
fourth quarter of 2012, rising 4.1
4
to 3.9% in the first quarter 3.9
3.9
3.8
of 2013 and eventually rising 3.8
3.7
to an average 4.4% by the 3.6
fourth quarter of next year.” 3.5
2012 4Q 2013 1Q 2013 4Q
MarketWatch 10/24/2012
16. Home Prices Next Year
3.5
3.25
3
2.8
2.5
2.44
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Home Price Expectation Survey National Association of Business WSJ Economic Survey
Economists
17. The Cost of Waiting a Year
Interest
Date Price P&I
Rate
Today $200,000 3.5% $898.09
2013 4Q $204,880 4.4% $1,025.96
Difference in Payment $127.87
18. Mortgages
“Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA
hold, manage or back 85% to 95%
of the marketplace, said Doug
Duncan, chief economist for
Fannie Mae.”
HousingWire 10/17/2012
19. Quality Residential Mortgage (QRM)
“The final deadline for the
Consumer Financial
Protection Bureau
qualified mortgage rule
is just around the corner
in January. The rule will
define exactly what a
safe mortgage is under
Dodd-Frank's ability-
to-repay provision.”
HousingWire 10/24/2012
20. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sept
NAR 10/2012
21. New Construction
“The continued drop in the supply of distressed homes on the
market is encouraging homebuilders to break ground on
more sites… Our forecast for 750,000 housing starts during
2012 as a whole, first made in 2011, looks broadly on track.
But our current forecast, for 850,000 starts in 2013
growing to 950,000 in 2014, may now be on the low side.”
Paul Diggle - Capital Economics Analyst and Property Economist
DSNews 10/25/2012
22. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
3.0%
Year-over-Year Change in Prices 2.0%
2.0%
1.1%
1.0%
0.6%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
0.0%
Jun Jul Aug
-0.5%
-1.0%
-2.0% -1.7%
-2.5%
-3.0%
-3.5%
-4.0%
-3.9%
-5.0%
S&P Case Shiller 10/2012
23. Prices
“We’re likely seeing home values fall
back into the negative range in some
markets due to the close of the
traditional home-buying season. While
that doesn’t mean the recovery has
come off the rails - in fact, most
markets have hit bottom –
it does present a confusing
environment for customers.”
Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow Chief Economist
Zillow 10/23/2012
24. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
35%
30%
25%
24%
20%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept
NAR 10/2012
25. “Two-thirds of the
nation’s largest
metros posted
decreases in
foreclosure activity
in the third quarter,
indicating that
most of the nation’s
housing markets are
past the worst of the
foreclosure problem...
Foreclosures
RealtyTrac 10/25/2012
26. Foreclosures
“Rebounding foreclosure
activity in some markets
remains a threat to home price
stability and growth in those
markets. The rebounding
foreclosure activity tends to be
in markets where the
foreclosure process slowed
down most dramatically in the
last two years, resulting in a
buildup of foreclosures in
limbo that lenders are finally
working through this year.”
Daren Blomquist - VP at RealtyTrac
RealtyTrac 10/25/2012
30. When Will 2006 Prices Return?
Analyst Projected Year
Barclay’s 2021
Fiserv 2023
31. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
2 Pending Home Sales http://www.realtor.org
http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=12
4 S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices
45342717788
7 Homeownership Rates by Age http://www.housingwire.com/sites/default/files/editorial/3B87E459d01.pdf
8 25-34 Year Olds Living with Parents http://www.realestateconsulting.com/newsletter
9 Gen X&Y Believe in Homeownership http://www.realogy.com/media/pr/show_release.cfm?id=1264
10 Young Adults & Homeownership http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/son2012.pdf
http://www.housingamerica.org/RIHA/RIHA/Publications/82405_11693_RIHA_Children_
11 Benefits of Homeownership
Report.pdf
12 Boomerang Buyers http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444657804578052892032374094.html
14 Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-
15 Mortgage Rates Moving Forward
10-24
https://www.pulsenomics.com/Sep_2012_HPE_Survey.html
17 Home Prices Next Year
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2012/10/26/home-prices-projected-to-
increase-by-3-percent-in-forthcoming-year
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
32. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
20 Quality Residential Mortgage (QRM) http://www.housingwire.com/rewired/three-key-trends-mba-conference
22 Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org
24,29, http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/q3-2012-metro-foreclosure-
New Construction, Foreclosures
30 rates-and-rankings-7448
26 Prices http://mortgagebankers.org/tools/FullStory.aspx?ArticleId=34801
27 Prices http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=308
29 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org
PAID SUBSCRIPTION - https://premiumresearch.radarlogic.com/ProductDetails.asp?
32 Year Over Year Prices (Radar Logic)
ProductCode=RPXMHMR-AUGUST
33 Appraisal Challenges http://www.realtor.org
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
