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February 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook

The labor market recorded a soft opening to 2016, adding only 151,000 new jobs, although unemployment fell below 5.0 percent for the first time since 2008.

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February 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook

  1. 1. U.S. employment situation: September 2013 Release date: October 22, 2013 Pullbacks in key industries soften the labor market’s entry into 2016 U.S. employment situation: January 2016 February 5, 2016
  2. 2. January 2016 employment summary • 2016 began on a relatively soft note, with only 151,000 net new jobs created during the month. In comparison, the six-month average totals 214,500 new jobs. Revisions throughout 2015 resulted in a net increase of 85,000 jobs, bringing annual employment growth to 2.7 million jobs. In order to maintain this level of growth, the national labor market will have to add an average of 234,900 new jobs every month for the remainder of 2016. • Hourly wage growth remains steady at 2.5 percent as inflation is flat and labor shortages, particularly for educated workers and in many metro areas, are becoming more apparent. In spite of meaningful wage increases that should be leading to increased disposable income, however, the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP has fallen in seasonally adjusted annual terms to 1.5 percent compared to the 2015 average of 1.8 percent. • Unemployment fell to 4.9 percent in January, the first time that it recorded a sub-5.0 percent figure since 2008, while total unemployment stayed put at 9.9 percent. This occurred even with a 10-basis-point increase in the labor force participation rate to 62.7 percent, the second consecutive month of improvement for a metric that remains well below its historic norms. • At the industry level, drastic contraction in temporary help services (-25,200 jobs) pulled professional and business services growth down to just 9,000 net new jobs, while education and health services registered only 6,000 net new jobs due to pullbacks in the education subsector. Transportation and warehousing also contracted, while mining and logging remains on a downward trend and the energy, mining and utilities aggregate is falling by 7.0 percent per year. • High-performing local markets continue to add jobs at a blistering pace, although their rates of growth have begun to ease somewhat. Silicon Valley, which recorded job growth exceeding 5.0 percent in annual terms last month, currently rests at 4.4 percent, with tech hubs such as San Francisco and Portland at 3.7 and 3.8 percent, respectively. At 3.0 and 2.9 percent, Atlanta and Dallas continue to witness the positive effects of diverse corporate expansion and migration, as rapid employment growth is translating into demand for space, aided by structurally high vacancy providing increased and more affordable options for tenants. Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  3. 3. January 2016 labor market at a glance +151,000 (64 consecutive months of growth) 1-month net change +2,665,000 (+1.9% y-o-y) 12-month change +779,000 10-year average annual growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 4.9% Unemployment rate -70bp 12-month change in unemployment 7.0% 10-year average unemployment 5,431,000 (+11.4% y-o-y) Job openings 5,197,000 (+3.4% y-o-y) Hires 2,831,000 (+6.3% y-o-y) Quits
  4. 4. 2016 started off slow with 151,000 new jobs; revisions bring 2015 total to 2.7 million 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 106,000 122,000 221,000 183,000 164,000 196,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 160,000 150,000 161,000 225,000 203,000 214,000 197,000 280,000 141,000 203,000 199,000 201,000 149,000 202,000 164,000 237,000 274,000 84,000 166,000 188,000 225,000 330,000 236,000 286,000 249,000 213,000 250,000 221,000 423,000 329,000 221,000 265,000 84,000 251,000 273,000 228,000 277,000 150,000 149,000 295,000 280,000 262,000 151,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1-monthnetchange 4 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  5. 5. Continued job creation brought unemployment below 5.0 percent for the first time this cycle; stands at 4.9 percent 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 Unemploymentrate(%) 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Monthly employment change Unemployment rate Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 5
  6. 6. Job openings rose in November to 5.4 million and have remained steady since mid-2015 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jobopenings(thousands)
  7. 7. 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 Consumerconfidenceindex At 98.1 points, the consumer confidence index is up over the month and once again nearing 100 points Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 7
  8. 8. Inflation continues to hover near 0 and is down by 0.1 percent over the year as wages consistently grow by 2.5 percent Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 8 -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 12-month%change Hourly wage growth CPI growth
  9. 9. -25.2 -20.3 -7.0 -7.0 -5.0 -0.3 1.0 3.5 6.0 8.8 9.0 12.0 17.0 18.0 18.0 29.0 44.0 44.0 57.7 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Temporary help services Transportation and warehousing Mining and logging Government Other services Utilities Information Motor vehicles and parts Education and health services Wholesale trade Professional and business services Nondurable goods Durable goods Financial activities Construction Manufacturing Leisure and hospitality Health care and social assistance Retail trade 1-month net change (thousands) Contractions in temporary help services, transportation and government dragged down overall growth; retail leads Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 9 Retail trade Leisure and hospitality Manufacturing All other subsectors Top three subsectors responsible for 86.6 percent of monthly growth.
  10. 10. -133.0 -13.0 8.5 26.2 28.0 45.0 56.0 58.0 58.1 78.0 82.1 88.4 149.0 264.0 301.1 458.0 614.0 620.0 644.0 -200 0 200 400 600 800 Mining and logging Durable goods Utilities Motor vehicles and parts Information Manufacturing Other services Nondurable goods Wholesale trade Government Temporary help services Transportation and warehousing Financial activities Construction Retail trade Leisure and hospitality Health care and social assistance Professional and business services Education and health services 12-month net change (thousands) Education and health PBS Leisure and hospitality Retail trade Financial activities Manufacturing All other jobs Despite setbacks in January, education and health remains the leader in annual job creation, followed closely by PBS Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 10 Core subsectors added 89.9 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months.
  11. 11. 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Unemploymentrate(%) For the sixth consecutive month, bachelor’s degree unemployment remains at natural low of 2.5 percent Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 11
  12. 12. A 25,200-job contraction in temporary help services pulled office-using growth down to its lowest level in years -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Information Professional and business services Financial activities Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 12
  13. 13. Energy has now contracted by 7.0 percent annually, reaching rates of contraction not seen since the recession -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through December 2015. 13 12-month%change(jobs)
  14. 14. The overall slowdown in job creation dropped tech growth to 6.0 percent; still triple the national rate Year-on-year percent employment growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 14
  15. 15. Initial unemployment claims continue to hover around 275,000 per week, although slightly trending upward in early 2016 Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor 15 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 Claims Initial claims 4-week moving average
  16. 16. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Hiresandquits(thousands) Hires Quits Hires and quits ticked up, slightly, with the highest level of quits (2.8 million) since the previous cycle Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  17. 17. Silicon Valley slows slightly to 4.4 percent; mid-sized Southern and Western markets continue to display strong growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 17 Silicon Valley 4.4% San Francisco 3.7% Charlotte 3.3% Nashville 3.2% Atlanta 3.0% Salt Lake City 3.0% Seattle 3.0% Portland 3.8%
  18. 18. 0.6% 0.8% 1.3% 1.7% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Chicago Houston Philadelphia Boston New York Los Angeles Washington, DC South Florida Dallas Seattle Atlanta San Francisco 12-month % change Most major markets are growing at around 2.2 percent; San Francisco, Atlanta and Seattle see stand-out performance Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 18
  19. 19. Despite a 10-basis-point drop in the official unemployment rate, total unemployment remains steady at 9.9 percent 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% Total unemployment U-6 10-year average Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 19
  20. 20. The labor force participation rate saw another 10-basis-point increase in January to 62.7 percent Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 20 60.0% 61.0% 62.0% 63.0% 64.0% 65.0% 66.0% 67.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Laborforceparticipationrate(%)
  21. 21. ©2015 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. For more information, please contact: Ben Breslau Managing Director - Americas Research Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com Or, find more employment, business and real estate research at jll.com. >>> Click here to check it out.

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