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May 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook

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After some earlier rebounds, April's slow job growth mirrored underwhelming GDP growth in Q1 2016.

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May 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook

  1. 1. U.S. employment situation: September 2013 Release date: October 22, 2013 After a bounce-back, April’s slow growth may mark a turning point U.S. employment situation: April 2016 May 6, 2016
  2. 2. March 2016 employment summary • Job creation sees marked slowdown, in line with a pause in GDP growth - After some earlier rebounds, employment growth slowed sharply in April to 160,000 net new jobs, the lowest figure since early 2015. Slow job growth mirrored underwhelming GDP growth of 0.5 percent in Q1 2016. - A slight drop in the labor force participation rate as well as slower job creation kept unemployment at 5.0 percent. Similarly, total unemployment is stable at 9.7 percent. - Most subsectors saw below-average monthly gains in April, although the office-using sectors countered this trend with 85,000 new jobs. • Employee turnover and confidence increasing as hires and quits spike - Although labor-market performance was disappointing in April, employee confidence in particular showed a very different story. A record 5.4 million job openings were recorded (+6.1 percent year-over-year) as companies seek to expand their headcounts to handle new demand for goods and services. - Similarly, hires and quits are rising and growing at annual rates far exceeding total non-farm job growth. The level of quits demonstrates employees’ confidence in the labor market as job openings and hiring activity rise at a steady clip. • Numerous indicators show signs of faltering - A number of indicators seem to have plateaued, either at their cyclical highs or lows. Consumer confidence is hovering around the 95-point mark, while monthly increases and decreases are shrinking. - Initial unemployment claims are declining, but the rate of decrease is flattening to around 255,000-260,000. In addition, wage growth has yet to surpass the 2.5-percent mark, although continued low inflation has helped workers in real terms. Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2
  3. 3. April 2016 labor market at a glance +160,000 (67 consecutive months of growth) 1-month net change +2,692,000 (+1.9% y-o-y) 12-month change +778,000 10-year average annual growth Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 5.0% Unemployment rate -40bp 12-month change in unemployment 62.8% Labor force participation rate 5,445,000 (+6.1% y-o-y) Job openings 5,422,000 (+6.5% y-o-y) Hires 2,950,000 (+9.1% y-o-y) Quits 3
  4. 4. In line with Q1 2016 GDP slowdown, the labor marked added just 160,000 jobs in April 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 106,000 122,000 221,000 183,000 164,000 196,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 160,000 150,000 161,000 225,000 203,000 214,000 197,000 280,000 141,000 203,000 199,000 201,000 149,000 202,000 164,000 237,000 274,000 84,000 166,000 188,000 225,000 330,000 236,000 286,000 249,000 213,000 250,000 221,000 423,000 329,000 221,000 265,000 84,000 251,000 273,000 228,000 277,000 150,000 149,000 295,000 280,000 262,000 168,000 233,000 208,000 160,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1-monthnetchange 4 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  5. 5. Slow job growth and downward revisions kept unemployment steady at 5.0 percent 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 Unemploymentrate(%) 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Monthly employment change Unemployment rate Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 5
  6. 6. Job openings continue to hover around the 5.5-million mark, indicating a potential plateau Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jobopenings(thousands)
  7. 7. 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 Consumerconfidenceindex As with over indicators, consumer confidence shows little sign of movement, falling slightly to 94.2 points Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 7
  8. 8. On the other hand, the usually-lagging hourly wage growth indicator saw a slight upward tick to 2.5 percent, well ahead of inflation Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics – CPI data as of March 2016 8 -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 12-month%change Hourly wage growth CPI growth
  9. 9. 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.4% 3.0% 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 4.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% Other services Construction Education and health Wholesale trade Professional and business services Mining and logging Manufacturing Information Leisure and hospitality Financial activities 12-month % change With the exception of financial activities, the variance in wage growth across industries is small Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 9
  10. 10. -11.0 -8.0 -3.1 -2.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 4.0 5.0 6.0 6.1 8.6 9.3 20.0 22.0 38.2 54.0 65.0 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Government Mining and logging Retail trade Nondurable goods Information Utilities Construction Wholesale trade Manufacturing Other services Durable goods Motor vehicles and parts Transportation and warehousing Temporary help services Financial activities Leisure and hospitality Health care and social assistance Education and health services Professional and business services 1-month net change (thousands) PBS countered below-average gains elsewhere with a strong 65,000 net new jobs added in April 10 PBS Education and health Leisure and hospitality All other subsectors Top three subsectors responsible for 88.1 percent of monthly growth. Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  11. 11. -132.0 -55.0 -19.0 8.8 24.9 35.0 38.0 61.9 65.2 67.3 73.0 106.0 160.0 260.0 337.4 449.0 597.8 611.0 673.0 -200 0 200 400 600 800 Mining and logging Durable goods Manufacturing Utilities Motor vehicles and parts Information Nondurable goods Transportation and warehousing Temporary help services Wholesale trade Other services Government Financial activities Construction Retail trade Leisure and hospitality Health care and social assistance Professional and business services Education and health services 12-month net change (thousands) Education and health PBS Leisure and hospitality Retail trade Financial activities Manufacturing All other jobs Contractions in durable goods employment have pulled manufacturing into red over the past 12 months Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 11 Core subsectors added 82.5 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months.
  12. 12. 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Unemploymentrate(%) Unemployment for bachelor’s degree holders fell to just 2.3 percent, exacerbating existing talent shortage in metro areas Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 12
  13. 13. The office-using sectors bucked the trend of slow growth with the best performance in six months: up 85,000 jobs -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Information Professional and business services Financial activities Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 13
  14. 14. Energy appears to have reached its cyclical low, while tech continues slowing to 5.2 percent -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through January 2015. 14 12-month%change(jobs)
  15. 15. Unemployment claims still falling slowly as participation remains steady Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor 15 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 Claims Initial claims 4-week moving average
  16. 16. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Hiresandquits(thousands) Hires Quits Employee confidence in the labor market is strengthening, with quits approaching late 2015 peak Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  17. 17. Month after month, tech and Sun Belt markets continue to surpass the national rate of job growth by more than 100bp Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 17 Austin 4.1% Dallas 3.9% San Francisco 4.0% Nashville 3.7% Tampa 3.4% Orlando 4.3% Fort Lauderdale 3.4% Silicon Valley 3.8%
  18. 18. 0.3% 1.6% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% 3.9% 4.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% Houston Boston Chicago New York Philadelphia South Florida Washington, DC Atlanta Los Angeles Seattle Dallas San Francisco 12-month % change Growth in Houston has slowed to near zero and may see annual contraction later in 2016 Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 18
  19. 19. Similar to other indicators, total unemployment declines have slowed considerably to around 9.7 percent 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% Total unemployment U-6 10-year average Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 19
  20. 20. Labor force participation dropped back to 62.8 percent after a hopeful uptick earlier in the year Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 20 60.0% 61.0% 62.0% 63.0% 64.0% 65.0% 66.0% 67.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Laborforceparticipationrate(%)
  21. 21. ©2016 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. For more information, please contact: Ben Breslau Managing Director - Americas Research Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Senior Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com Or, find more employment, business and real estate research at jll.com. >>> Click here to check it out.

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