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May 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook

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With 164,000 net new jobs, employment growth in April 2018 maintained the year's solid pace. Growth was spread across industries, although professional services emerged as a clear leader during the month, accounting for roughly one-third of all gains.

A slight drop to the civilian labor force spread to both employment and unemployment figures, driving down unemployment to a new low of 3.9 percent.

Publicado en: Economía y finanzas
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May 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook

  1. 1. National employment situation: April 2018 May 4, 2018
  2. 2. April 2018 U.S. labor market at a glance 2 +164,000 (90 consecutive months of growth) 1-month net change +2,280,000 (+1.6% y-o-y) 12-month change +917,000 10-year average annual growth 3.9% Unemployment rate 6,052,000 (+7.7% y-o-y) Job openings -50bp 12-month change in unemployment 62.8% Labor force participation rate 5,507,000 (+4.6% y-o-y) Hires 3,210,000 (+6.4% y-o-y) Quits Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  3. 3. April registered yet another solid month for employment growth With 164,000 net new jobs, employment growth in April maintained 2018’s solid pace. Growth was spread across industries, although professional services emerged as a clear leader during the month, accounting for roughly one-third of all gains. A slight drop to the civilian labor force spread to both employment and unemployment figures, driving down unemployment to a new low of 3.9 percent. Total unemployment also dropped by 20 basis points to 7.8 percent, its first sub-8.0 percent reading this cycle. Many metrics are stabilizing as a “new normal” emerges A number of indicators – particularly those related to hiring and turnover – are beginning to show signs of stabilization. Job openings are now firmly hovering around 6.0 million as employers continue to demonstrate difficulty filling open positions. Hiring has also flatlined in recent months around 5.5 million. Even consumer confidence, which has reached new heights and hit 130 points in February, has started to wobble between 127 and 130 points in March and April. Employers and employees alike are adjusting to a new, near-full-employment paradigm. Wage growth remains the outlier among indicators Among labor-market indicators, wage growth remains an outlier and has yet to budge beyond 2.6 percent in recent months despite a consistent labor shortage nationally and in particular across growing metropolitan areas. Although this 2.6-percent figure masks higher wage growth in office-using sectors, it is still below expectations given this point in the economic cycle and rising inflation is eating away at the potential for growth in disposable income. April 2018 U.S. labor market highlights 3Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  4. 4. 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 106,000 122,000 221,000 183,000 164,000 196,000 360,000 226,000 243,000 96,000 110,000 88,000 160,000 150,000 161,000 225,000 203,000 214,000 197,000 280,000 141,000 203,000 199,000 201,000 149,000 202,000 164,000 237,000 274,000 84,000 166,000 188,000 225,000 330,000 236,000 286,000 249,000 213,000 250,000 221,000 423,000 329,000 221,000 265,000 84,000 251,000 273,000 228,000 277,000 150,000 149,000 295,000 280,000 262,000 126,000 237,000 225,000 153,000 43,000 297,000 291,000 176,000 249,000 124,000 164,000 155,000 259,000 200,000 73,000 175,000 155,000 239,000 190,000 221,000 14,000 271,000 216,000 175,000 176,000 324,000 135,000 164,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 1-monthnetchangeJob creation remained healthy in April, with the labor market posting 164,000 net new jobs Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 4
  5. 5. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 Unemploymentrate(%) 1-monthnetchange(thousands) 1-month net change Unemployment rate Unemployment dipped to a new low of 3.9%, in part due to a small contraction in the broader workforce 5Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  6. 6. 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 Jobopenings(thousands)Job openings are now firmly trending around the 6.0- million mark after rapid growth from 2014 to 2016 6Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  7. 7. 2.7% 3.0% 3.3% 3.7% 4.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6% 4.8% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Construction Mining and logging Manufacturing Other services Trade, transportation and utilities Professional and business services Financial activities Information Leisure and hospitality Education and health Job openings rate (%) Skilled industries, particularly education, health and tech, still have large amounts of jobs unfilled 7Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  8. 8. 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 Hires(thousands)Hiring has flatlined in recent months given an acute shortfall in skilled talent and rising wage pressure 8Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  9. 9. -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 12-month%change Wage growth Inflation Even with severe labor-force constraints, wage growth has yet to meaningfully rise from 2.6% 9Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  10. 10. 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 3.5% 4.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Manufacturing Mining and logging Trade, transportation and utilities Professional and business services Education and health Other services Leisure and hospitality Information Construction Financial activities 12-month wage growth (%) Financial activities wage growth once again reaches 4%; other sectors slower 10Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics +3.2% Office-using wage growth +2.5% Non-office-using wage growth
  11. 11. -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ChangesinceJanuary2007(%) Civilian labor force Employed The civilian labor force declined by 236,000 people in April, further reducing slack in the market 11Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  12. 12. 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Laborforceparticipationrate(%)After a slight increase earlier in the year, the participation rate dropped back down to 62.8% 12Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  13. 13. -9.8 -4.0 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.0 7.0 8.0 14.0 17.0 18.0 24.0 31.0 54.0 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Wholesale trade Government Transportation and warehousing Utilities Retail trade Financial activities Information Mining and logging Other services Construction Leisure and hospitality Manufacturing Education and health Professional and business services 1-month net change (thousands) Professional services returned to prominence in April, representing one-third of monthly growth 13Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  14. 14. -26.0 -0.1 3.0 59.0 65.4 71.8 99.0 126.0 152.8 191.0 257.0 279.0 431.0 518.0 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Information Utilities Government Mining and logging Wholesale trade Retail trade Other services Financial activities Transportation and warehousing Manufacturing Construction Leisure and hospitality Education and health Professional and business services 12-month net change (thousands) Annual job creation has become more evenly distributed across industries in recent months 14Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 518.0 431.0 279.0 191.0 126.0 663.2 PBS Education and health Leisure and hospitality Manufacturing Financial activities Retail trade All other jobs Core subsectors added 70.9 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months.
  15. 15. -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 12-monthnetchangeRetail trade’s recovery is continuing, albeit slowly: annual growth hit 0.5% in April Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 15
  16. 16. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Unemploymentrateforbachelor’sdegreeholders(%)A small increase in the participation rate for bachelor’s degree holders pushed skilled unemployment to 2.1% 16Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  17. 17. -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Professional and business services Financial activities Information Office-using job creation continues relatively unabated, notably due to growth in information 17Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  18. 18. -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 12-month%change Tech Energy, mining and utilities Office-using Total non-farm Growth trends for niche sectors are beginning to normalize at new, cooler levels 18Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  19. 19. 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 Initialunemploymentclaimsperweek Intial weekly claims 4-week moving average Initial unemployment claims in recent weeks have dipped down to below 220,000, well below norms 19Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
  20. 20. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 ConsumerconfidenceindexConsumer confidence is moving back up to its previous peak in February 20Source: JLL Research, Conference Board
  21. 21. -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% GrowthsinceJanuary2010(%)Gains in consumer confidence this cycle far outpace the increase in consumer spending 21Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Conference Board – data has one-month delay +128.0% Consumer confidence Growth since 2010 (%) +22.4% Personal consumption
  22. 22. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 12-month%change Total unemployment 10-year average Total unemployment fell below 8% for the first time this cycle and now stands at 7.8% 22Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  23. 23. © 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. 23 Phil Ryan Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com 212 292 8040

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