The Slide Share categories a annoyingly stupid. This a an overview of the global future situation with implications for Latin America for the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.
1. Global Challenges to 2030
&
Long-Range Strategic Implications
for Latin America and the Caribbean
For
UN ECLAC – CEPAL
Jerome C. Glenn
The Millennium Project
2. When this
begins to
happen, the
speed and
capacity of
AI for AI will
make
far more
change than
Moore’s Law
Artificial Intelligence, teaching artificial
intelligence to be more intelligent, will be able to
teach more intelligently worldwide
3. SSoommee GGlloobbaall FFuuttuurree IImmppaaccttss
• How many researchers, service agents, lawyers and other
professionals will IBM’s Watson replace by 2020, 2030, 2050?
• What new capabilities will be created by Google’s artificial brain
and the brain projects of US, EU, and China by 2030?
• How many traffic police, and taxi, bus, and truck drivers will
driverless vehicles replace by 2030?
• How many call center employees will interactive voice AI systems
replace?
• What could the impact of 3D printing and robot manufacturing on
international trade?
5. Self-Assembly
Robotic AI
manufacturing
could build
these one day in
Patagonia
Vertical
Farming, Carbon
Sink, Art
6. New concepts of work and economics needed
• Capitalism/Socialism/Communism – early industrial age systems
• Next system too complex to understand to day – but some seeds
can be; 32 seeds identified and assessed by the Millennium Project
• Non-ownership - Means of Production available to all, as distinct
from private ownership or collective/state ownership (e.g. The Internet
and open source software)
• Decentralized Autonomous Organization peer to peer “work for
software” but central – human corporation
• One-Person Business - Self-employment via the Internet—
individuals seek markets for their abilities rather than jobs
7. Next Mega Trend:
Conscious-Technology
When the distinction between these two trends
becomes blurred, we will have reached the
Post-Information Age
HUMANS BECOMING
CYBORGS
BUILT ENVIRONMENT
BECOMING INTELLIGENT
2000
1985
2030
2015
8. Distillation of History and Future Direction
Age / Element Product Power Wealth Place War Time
Agricultural Extraction Food/Res Religion Land Earth/Res Location Cyclical
Industrial Machine Nation-State Capital Factory Resources Linear
Information Info/serv Corporation Access Office Perception Flexible
Conscious-Technology Linkage Individual Being Motion Identity Invented
9. Emerging Technologies Table
Ifthen Nano-technology
Synthetic
Biology
Internet of
Things
3D Printing Conscious-
Technology
Augmented
Reality
Nano-technology
xxx
Synthetic
Biology xxx
Internet of
Things xxx
3D Printing xxx
Conscious-
Technology xxx
Augmented
Reality xxx
10. 15 Global Challenges:
A Framework for Understanding Global Change, and an Agenda for Humanity
Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be achieved
for all while addressing global climate change?
Challenge 2: How can everyone have sufficient clean
water without conflict?
Challenge 3: How can population growth and
resources be brought into balance?
Challenge 4: How can genuine democracy emerge
from authoritarian regimes?
Challenge 5: How can policymaking be made more
sensitive to global long-term perspectives?
Challenge 6: How can the global convergence of information and
communications technologies work for everyone?
Challenge 7: How can ethical market economies be
encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and
poor?
Challenge 8: How can the threat of new and
reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be
reduced?
Challenge 15: How can ethical considerations become more routinely
incorporated into global decisions?
Challenge 14: How can scientific and technological breakthroughs
be accelerated to improve the human condition?
Challenge 13: How can growing energy demands be met
safely and efficiently?
Challenge 12: How can transnational organized crime
networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and
sophisticated global enterprises?
Challenge 11: How can the changing status of women
improve the human condition?
Challenge 10: How can shared values and new security strategies
reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass
Challenge 9: How can the capacity to decide be
improved as the nature of work and institutions
change?
destruction?
13. Where are We Losing?
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14. What is Unclear or not Changing?
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15. The World is in a Race
ever-increasing ways to improve the human
Between implementing
condition
and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global
problems.
Global Collective Intelligence can help…
Win the Race
16. Some Implications for Latin America
• Latin America is way too dependent on high commodity prices for its future
• It has to re-orient it’s concepts of growth, employment, and economics.
• True, it has to improve governance and the rule of law, but without a new future of future, change is not
likely.
• So, how to change the future view from commodities to the next economics?
• Presidential Future Strategy Units (Chilean Council of Prospective and Strategy)
• Produce annual state of the future of the nation report
• State of the Future Index for each country and the LAC region
• National Collective Intelligence System
• Create and maintain national and regional futures situation chart online
• Establish a permanent Committee for the Future in national legislatures
• Need global organized crime strategy – right now, who provides more opportunities to young people
government or organized crime?
• Participate in RIBER with former President Leonel Fernández of the Dominican Republic
18. Futuristic Management for LAC
1. Hierarchy
2. Networks
3. Intersection of
Networks: Nodes
4. Connecting Nodes
into Fields of Play
5. Connecting Fields of Play
19. Development projects should leap frog as mush as possible
• Pure meat without growing animals
• Seawater agriculture – shore line and in water - Youth Corps to plant seagrass
• 3-Printing – reduce imports and costs
• Synthetic biology – totally new capabilities
• Computational science – acceleration and dissemination of knowledge
• Tele-education, tele-medicine, tele-nations, tele-everything
• Internet of things with universal high speed Internet
• Increasing intelligence (individual and national)
• Nanotechnology
• Retrofitting buildings for energy production
• One-Person Businesses (massive training programs)
20. One-Person
Businesses
Find markets
around the
world for what
you are
interested in
doing
not non-existing
jobs
21. LAC Public Situation Chart –
Like Wiki
Leap-Frog
Activities
Current Status Next Steps Comments
Synergies
Sea Water
Agriculture
FAO, World Bank,Eritrea
(Seawater Forest Initiative),
Mexico (Seawater Foundation,
Bahia Kino), UAE (UAE
University), Australia (Seawater
Green House), Oman, others
National Youth Corps to plant
seagrass, contact Seawater
Greenhouse (UK) Seawater
Foundation (US), See
investments (in-water and on-beach
agriculture)
IDB, China, FAO, USAIS,
PAHO for food process
plant feasibility study, Youth
Corps for production and
consumption
Growing meat and
leather without
animals
Initial demonstration-tions to
attract investors
Review Univ. of Maastricht
and others research, contact
New Harvest, others
Improved protein and iron
foods, Meals for Youth
Corps, FAO global PR plan,
invite business investors
Tele-LAC Nations Brain drain programs filing,
alternative: Tele-Jamaica
Create website to match
development needs with
Caribbean clubs overseas
Integrate all development
programs into tele-
Caribbean Basin web site
Etc. Etc. Etc. Etc.
22. First 3D Printed Kidney’s but not ready
for transplant as they only live 4 months
25. Yet, The Future may be slipping through our fingers
Nature does not care…
about what is politically
feasible… 450 vs. 350 ppm
CO2 equivilant
or Equitable … CO2/capita
27. High Food Prices – Long-Term
1. population growth
2. rising affluence especially India &
China
3. diversion of corn for biofuels
4. soil erosion
5. aquifer depletion
6. the loss of cropland
7. falling water tables and water
pollution
8. Increasing fertilizer costs (high oil
prices)
9. Market speculation
10. diversion of water from rural to urban
11. Increasing meat consumption
12. global food reserves at 25-year lows
13. climate change
13. Increasing droughts
14. Increasing flooding
15. Melting mountain glaciers reducing
water flows
16. And eventually saltwater invading crop
lands
29. Growing Pure Meat without Growing Animals
August 5th a London chef cooked and served first public taste test
for hamburgers grown from cow’s cells with growing/killing a cow
30.
31. How to increase Individual Intelligence
1. Responding to feedback
2. Consistency of love, diversity of environment
3. Nutrition
4. Reasoning exercises
5. Believing it is possible (placebo effect)
6. Contact with intelligent people or via VR simulations
7. Software systems and gaming
8. Neuro-pharmacology (enhanced brain chemistry)
9. Memes on classroom walls and else where, for example: intelligence is sexy
10. Low stress, stimulating environments, music, color, fragrances improves performance
Longer term:
1. Reverse engineering the brain (President Obama)
2. Applied Epigenetics and genetic engineering
3. Designer microbes to eat the plaque on neurons
32. How to increase national intelligence with
national collective intelligence system
1. Human Brains: Ideally 100 Reviewers per Global Challenge
plus subscribers and 50+ Nodes around the world
2. Data, Information, Intelligence, maybe wisdom: 10,000+
pages of futures research by The Millennium Project
3. Software: Real-time Delphi (exert and crowd sourcing), State
of the Future Index, Computer Models, Text and Data Mining
33. Collective Intelligence
• It emerges from the integration
and synergies among
• data/info/knowledge
• software/hardware
• experts and others with insight
• that continually learns from
feedback
• to produce just in time knowledge
for better decisions
• than these elements acting alone.
35. … May become a TransInstitution
The Millennium
Project
36. 50+ Millennium Project Nodes...
are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews,
special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
37. For further information:
Jerome.Glenn@
Millennium-Project.org
202-686-5179
StateoftheFuture.org
themp.org
Global Futures
Intelligence System
38. For further information
The Millennium Project
4421 Garrison Street, NW,
Washington, D.C. 20016 USA
+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax
Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org
www.StateoftheFuture.org
www.themp.org (Global Futures Intelligence System)
Notas del editor
International S&T Organization was created in this study:
OTA revisited
Evolves from an information system
De facto regulator
Aspects of ISTO:
Form international guidelines with eminent experts
Provide access to information about risk and opportunity
Create a global S&T fund
Produce annual Davos-like S&T forums
Engage media and politicians to improve S&T discussion
Create international treaties as consensus evolves