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Global Challenges to 2030 
& 
Long-Range Strategic Implications 
for Latin America and the Caribbean 
For 
UN ECLAC – CEPAL 
Jerome C. Glenn 
The Millennium Project
When this 
begins to 
happen, the 
speed and 
capacity of 
AI for AI will 
make 
far more 
change than 
Moore’s Law 
Artificial Intelligence, teaching artificial 
intelligence to be more intelligent, will be able to 
teach more intelligently worldwide
SSoommee GGlloobbaall FFuuttuurree IImmppaaccttss 
• How many researchers, service agents, lawyers and other 
professionals will IBM’s Watson replace by 2020, 2030, 2050? 
• What new capabilities will be created by Google’s artificial brain 
and the brain projects of US, EU, and China by 2030? 
• How many traffic police, and taxi, bus, and truck drivers will 
driverless vehicles replace by 2030? 
• How many call center employees will interactive voice AI systems 
replace? 
• What could the impact of 3D printing and robot manufacturing on 
international trade?
Robot Farming replacing how many farmers?
Self-Assembly 
Robotic AI 
manufacturing 
could build 
these one day in 
Patagonia 
Vertical 
Farming, Carbon 
Sink, Art
New concepts of work and economics needed 
• Capitalism/Socialism/Communism – early industrial age systems 
• Next system too complex to understand to day – but some seeds 
can be; 32 seeds identified and assessed by the Millennium Project 
• Non-ownership - Means of Production available to all, as distinct 
from private ownership or collective/state ownership (e.g. The Internet 
and open source software) 
• Decentralized Autonomous Organization peer to peer “work for 
software” but central – human corporation 
• One-Person Business - Self-employment via the Internet— 
individuals seek markets for their abilities rather than jobs
Next Mega Trend: 
Conscious-Technology 
When the distinction between these two trends 
becomes blurred, we will have reached the 
Post-Information Age 
HUMANS BECOMING 
CYBORGS 
BUILT ENVIRONMENT 
BECOMING INTELLIGENT 
2000 
1985 
2030 
2015
Distillation of History and Future Direction 
Age / Element Product Power Wealth Place War Time 
Agricultural Extraction Food/Res Religion Land Earth/Res Location Cyclical 
Industrial Machine Nation-State Capital Factory Resources Linear 
Information Info/serv Corporation Access Office Perception Flexible 
Conscious-Technology Linkage Individual Being Motion Identity Invented
Emerging Technologies Table 
Ifthen Nano-technology 
Synthetic 
Biology 
Internet of 
Things 
3D Printing Conscious- 
Technology 
Augmented 
Reality 
Nano-technology 
xxx 
Synthetic 
Biology xxx 
Internet of 
Things xxx 
3D Printing xxx 
Conscious- 
Technology xxx 
Augmented 
Reality xxx
15 Global Challenges: 
A Framework for Understanding Global Change, and an Agenda for Humanity 
Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be achieved 
for all while addressing global climate change? 
Challenge 2: How can everyone have sufficient clean 
water without conflict? 
Challenge 3: How can population growth and 
resources be brought into balance? 
Challenge 4: How can genuine democracy emerge 
from authoritarian regimes? 
Challenge 5: How can policymaking be made more 
sensitive to global long-term perspectives? 
Challenge 6: How can the global convergence of information and 
communications technologies work for everyone? 
Challenge 7: How can ethical market economies be 
encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and 
poor? 
Challenge 8: How can the threat of new and 
reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be 
reduced? 
Challenge 15: How can ethical considerations become more routinely 
incorporated into global decisions? 
Challenge 14: How can scientific and technological breakthroughs 
be accelerated to improve the human condition? 
Challenge 13: How can growing energy demands be met 
safely and efficiently? 
Challenge 12: How can transnational organized crime 
networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and 
sophisticated global enterprises? 
Challenge 11: How can the changing status of women 
improve the human condition? 
Challenge 10: How can shared values and new security strategies 
reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass 
Challenge 9: How can the capacity to decide be 
improved as the nature of work and institutions 
change? 
destruction?
2013 State of the Future Index
WWoorrlldd 
RReeppoorrtt CCaarrdd 
Where are 
We Winning?
Where are We Losing? 
WWoorrlldd 
RReeppoorrtt CCaarrdd
What is Unclear or not Changing? 
WWoorrlldd 
RReeppoorrtt CCaarrdd
The World is in a Race 
ever-increasing ways to improve the human 
Between implementing 
condition 
and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global 
problems. 
Global Collective Intelligence can help… 
Win the Race
Some Implications for Latin America 
• Latin America is way too dependent on high commodity prices for its future 
• It has to re-orient it’s concepts of growth, employment, and economics. 
• True, it has to improve governance and the rule of law, but without a new future of future, change is not 
likely. 
• So, how to change the future view from commodities to the next economics? 
• Presidential Future Strategy Units (Chilean Council of Prospective and Strategy) 
• Produce annual state of the future of the nation report 
• State of the Future Index for each country and the LAC region 
• National Collective Intelligence System 
• Create and maintain national and regional futures situation chart online 
• Establish a permanent Committee for the Future in national legislatures 
• Need global organized crime strategy – right now, who provides more opportunities to young people 
government or organized crime? 
• Participate in RIBER with former President Leonel Fernández of the Dominican Republic
• Many 
organizations 
in the LAC 
Region
Futuristic Management for LAC 
1. Hierarchy 
2. Networks 
3. Intersection of 
Networks: Nodes 
4. Connecting Nodes 
into Fields of Play 
5. Connecting Fields of Play
Development projects should leap frog as mush as possible 
• Pure meat without growing animals 
• Seawater agriculture – shore line and in water - Youth Corps to plant seagrass 
• 3-Printing – reduce imports and costs 
• Synthetic biology – totally new capabilities 
• Computational science – acceleration and dissemination of knowledge 
• Tele-education, tele-medicine, tele-nations, tele-everything 
• Internet of things with universal high speed Internet 
• Increasing intelligence (individual and national) 
• Nanotechnology 
• Retrofitting buildings for energy production 
• One-Person Businesses (massive training programs)
One-Person 
Businesses 
Find markets 
around the 
world for what 
you are 
interested in 
doing 
not non-existing 
jobs
LAC Public Situation Chart – 
Like Wiki 
Leap-Frog 
Activities 
Current Status Next Steps Comments 
Synergies 
Sea Water 
Agriculture 
FAO, World Bank,Eritrea 
(Seawater Forest Initiative), 
Mexico (Seawater Foundation, 
Bahia Kino), UAE (UAE 
University), Australia (Seawater 
Green House), Oman, others 
National Youth Corps to plant 
seagrass, contact Seawater 
Greenhouse (UK) Seawater 
Foundation (US), See 
investments (in-water and on-beach 
agriculture) 
IDB, China, FAO, USAIS, 
PAHO for food process 
plant feasibility study, Youth 
Corps for production and 
consumption 
Growing meat and 
leather without 
animals 
Initial demonstration-tions to 
attract investors 
Review Univ. of Maastricht 
and others research, contact 
New Harvest, others 
Improved protein and iron 
foods, Meals for Youth 
Corps, FAO global PR plan, 
invite business investors 
Tele-LAC Nations Brain drain programs filing, 
alternative: Tele-Jamaica 
Create website to match 
development needs with 
Caribbean clubs overseas 
Integrate all development 
programs into tele- 
Caribbean Basin web site 
Etc. Etc. Etc. Etc.
First 3D Printed Kidney’s but not ready 
for transplant as they only live 4 months
UCLA’s Solar Cell Windows
3-D Printed Shoes
Yet, The Future may be slipping through our fingers 
Nature does not care… 
about what is politically 
feasible… 450 vs. 350 ppm 
CO2 equivilant 
or Equitable … CO2/capita
Meanwhile the long-term trend of prices are going up
High Food Prices – Long-Term 
1. population growth 
2. rising affluence especially India & 
China 
3. diversion of corn for biofuels 
4. soil erosion 
5. aquifer depletion 
6. the loss of cropland 
7. falling water tables and water 
pollution 
8. Increasing fertilizer costs (high oil 
prices) 
9. Market speculation 
10. diversion of water from rural to urban 
11. Increasing meat consumption 
12. global food reserves at 25-year lows 
13. climate change 
13. Increasing droughts 
14. Increasing flooding 
15. Melting mountain glaciers reducing 
water flows 
16. And eventually saltwater invading crop 
lands
Salt Water Agriculture: Saves H2O for Cities, 
Sequests Carbon, new food, paper products
Growing Pure Meat without Growing Animals 
August 5th a London chef cooked and served first public taste test 
for hamburgers grown from cow’s cells with growing/killing a cow
How to increase Individual Intelligence 
1. Responding to feedback 
2. Consistency of love, diversity of environment 
3. Nutrition 
4. Reasoning exercises 
5. Believing it is possible (placebo effect) 
6. Contact with intelligent people or via VR simulations 
7. Software systems and gaming 
8. Neuro-pharmacology (enhanced brain chemistry) 
9. Memes on classroom walls and else where, for example: intelligence is sexy 
10. Low stress, stimulating environments, music, color, fragrances improves performance 
Longer term: 
1. Reverse engineering the brain (President Obama) 
2. Applied Epigenetics and genetic engineering 
3. Designer microbes to eat the plaque on neurons
How to increase national intelligence with 
national collective intelligence system 
1. Human Brains: Ideally 100 Reviewers per Global Challenge 
plus subscribers and 50+ Nodes around the world 
2. Data, Information, Intelligence, maybe wisdom: 10,000+ 
pages of futures research by The Millennium Project 
3. Software: Real-time Delphi (exert and crowd sourcing), State 
of the Future Index, Computer Models, Text and Data Mining
Collective Intelligence 
• It emerges from the integration 
and synergies among 
• data/info/knowledge 
• software/hardware 
• experts and others with insight 
• that continually learns from 
feedback 
• to produce just in time knowledge 
for better decisions 
• than these elements acting alone.
An Application of Collective Intelligence:
… May become a TransInstitution 
The Millennium 
Project
50+ Millennium Project Nodes... 
are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in: 
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, 
special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
For further information: 
Jerome.Glenn@ 
Millennium-Project.org 
202-686-5179 
StateoftheFuture.org 
themp.org 
Global Futures 
Intelligence System
For further information 
The Millennium Project 
4421 Garrison Street, NW, 
Washington, D.C. 20016 USA 
+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax 
Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org 
www.StateoftheFuture.org 
www.themp.org (Global Futures Intelligence System)

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UN ECLAC 2014 Santiago, Chile

  • 1. Global Challenges to 2030 & Long-Range Strategic Implications for Latin America and the Caribbean For UN ECLAC – CEPAL Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project
  • 2. When this begins to happen, the speed and capacity of AI for AI will make far more change than Moore’s Law Artificial Intelligence, teaching artificial intelligence to be more intelligent, will be able to teach more intelligently worldwide
  • 3. SSoommee GGlloobbaall FFuuttuurree IImmppaaccttss • How many researchers, service agents, lawyers and other professionals will IBM’s Watson replace by 2020, 2030, 2050? • What new capabilities will be created by Google’s artificial brain and the brain projects of US, EU, and China by 2030? • How many traffic police, and taxi, bus, and truck drivers will driverless vehicles replace by 2030? • How many call center employees will interactive voice AI systems replace? • What could the impact of 3D printing and robot manufacturing on international trade?
  • 4. Robot Farming replacing how many farmers?
  • 5. Self-Assembly Robotic AI manufacturing could build these one day in Patagonia Vertical Farming, Carbon Sink, Art
  • 6. New concepts of work and economics needed • Capitalism/Socialism/Communism – early industrial age systems • Next system too complex to understand to day – but some seeds can be; 32 seeds identified and assessed by the Millennium Project • Non-ownership - Means of Production available to all, as distinct from private ownership or collective/state ownership (e.g. The Internet and open source software) • Decentralized Autonomous Organization peer to peer “work for software” but central – human corporation • One-Person Business - Self-employment via the Internet— individuals seek markets for their abilities rather than jobs
  • 7. Next Mega Trend: Conscious-Technology When the distinction between these two trends becomes blurred, we will have reached the Post-Information Age HUMANS BECOMING CYBORGS BUILT ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INTELLIGENT 2000 1985 2030 2015
  • 8. Distillation of History and Future Direction Age / Element Product Power Wealth Place War Time Agricultural Extraction Food/Res Religion Land Earth/Res Location Cyclical Industrial Machine Nation-State Capital Factory Resources Linear Information Info/serv Corporation Access Office Perception Flexible Conscious-Technology Linkage Individual Being Motion Identity Invented
  • 9. Emerging Technologies Table Ifthen Nano-technology Synthetic Biology Internet of Things 3D Printing Conscious- Technology Augmented Reality Nano-technology xxx Synthetic Biology xxx Internet of Things xxx 3D Printing xxx Conscious- Technology xxx Augmented Reality xxx
  • 10. 15 Global Challenges: A Framework for Understanding Global Change, and an Agenda for Humanity Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change? Challenge 2: How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? Challenge 3: How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? Challenge 4: How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? Challenge 5: How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives? Challenge 6: How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone? Challenge 7: How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor? Challenge 8: How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced? Challenge 15: How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions? Challenge 14: How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition? Challenge 13: How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? Challenge 12: How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? Challenge 11: How can the changing status of women improve the human condition? Challenge 10: How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass Challenge 9: How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change? destruction?
  • 11. 2013 State of the Future Index
  • 12. WWoorrlldd RReeppoorrtt CCaarrdd Where are We Winning?
  • 13. Where are We Losing? WWoorrlldd RReeppoorrtt CCaarrdd
  • 14. What is Unclear or not Changing? WWoorrlldd RReeppoorrtt CCaarrdd
  • 15. The World is in a Race ever-increasing ways to improve the human Between implementing condition and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global problems. Global Collective Intelligence can help… Win the Race
  • 16. Some Implications for Latin America • Latin America is way too dependent on high commodity prices for its future • It has to re-orient it’s concepts of growth, employment, and economics. • True, it has to improve governance and the rule of law, but without a new future of future, change is not likely. • So, how to change the future view from commodities to the next economics? • Presidential Future Strategy Units (Chilean Council of Prospective and Strategy) • Produce annual state of the future of the nation report • State of the Future Index for each country and the LAC region • National Collective Intelligence System • Create and maintain national and regional futures situation chart online • Establish a permanent Committee for the Future in national legislatures • Need global organized crime strategy – right now, who provides more opportunities to young people government or organized crime? • Participate in RIBER with former President Leonel Fernández of the Dominican Republic
  • 17. • Many organizations in the LAC Region
  • 18. Futuristic Management for LAC 1. Hierarchy 2. Networks 3. Intersection of Networks: Nodes 4. Connecting Nodes into Fields of Play 5. Connecting Fields of Play
  • 19. Development projects should leap frog as mush as possible • Pure meat without growing animals • Seawater agriculture – shore line and in water - Youth Corps to plant seagrass • 3-Printing – reduce imports and costs • Synthetic biology – totally new capabilities • Computational science – acceleration and dissemination of knowledge • Tele-education, tele-medicine, tele-nations, tele-everything • Internet of things with universal high speed Internet • Increasing intelligence (individual and national) • Nanotechnology • Retrofitting buildings for energy production • One-Person Businesses (massive training programs)
  • 20. One-Person Businesses Find markets around the world for what you are interested in doing not non-existing jobs
  • 21. LAC Public Situation Chart – Like Wiki Leap-Frog Activities Current Status Next Steps Comments Synergies Sea Water Agriculture FAO, World Bank,Eritrea (Seawater Forest Initiative), Mexico (Seawater Foundation, Bahia Kino), UAE (UAE University), Australia (Seawater Green House), Oman, others National Youth Corps to plant seagrass, contact Seawater Greenhouse (UK) Seawater Foundation (US), See investments (in-water and on-beach agriculture) IDB, China, FAO, USAIS, PAHO for food process plant feasibility study, Youth Corps for production and consumption Growing meat and leather without animals Initial demonstration-tions to attract investors Review Univ. of Maastricht and others research, contact New Harvest, others Improved protein and iron foods, Meals for Youth Corps, FAO global PR plan, invite business investors Tele-LAC Nations Brain drain programs filing, alternative: Tele-Jamaica Create website to match development needs with Caribbean clubs overseas Integrate all development programs into tele- Caribbean Basin web site Etc. Etc. Etc. Etc.
  • 22. First 3D Printed Kidney’s but not ready for transplant as they only live 4 months
  • 25. Yet, The Future may be slipping through our fingers Nature does not care… about what is politically feasible… 450 vs. 350 ppm CO2 equivilant or Equitable … CO2/capita
  • 26. Meanwhile the long-term trend of prices are going up
  • 27. High Food Prices – Long-Term 1. population growth 2. rising affluence especially India & China 3. diversion of corn for biofuels 4. soil erosion 5. aquifer depletion 6. the loss of cropland 7. falling water tables and water pollution 8. Increasing fertilizer costs (high oil prices) 9. Market speculation 10. diversion of water from rural to urban 11. Increasing meat consumption 12. global food reserves at 25-year lows 13. climate change 13. Increasing droughts 14. Increasing flooding 15. Melting mountain glaciers reducing water flows 16. And eventually saltwater invading crop lands
  • 28. Salt Water Agriculture: Saves H2O for Cities, Sequests Carbon, new food, paper products
  • 29. Growing Pure Meat without Growing Animals August 5th a London chef cooked and served first public taste test for hamburgers grown from cow’s cells with growing/killing a cow
  • 30.
  • 31. How to increase Individual Intelligence 1. Responding to feedback 2. Consistency of love, diversity of environment 3. Nutrition 4. Reasoning exercises 5. Believing it is possible (placebo effect) 6. Contact with intelligent people or via VR simulations 7. Software systems and gaming 8. Neuro-pharmacology (enhanced brain chemistry) 9. Memes on classroom walls and else where, for example: intelligence is sexy 10. Low stress, stimulating environments, music, color, fragrances improves performance Longer term: 1. Reverse engineering the brain (President Obama) 2. Applied Epigenetics and genetic engineering 3. Designer microbes to eat the plaque on neurons
  • 32. How to increase national intelligence with national collective intelligence system 1. Human Brains: Ideally 100 Reviewers per Global Challenge plus subscribers and 50+ Nodes around the world 2. Data, Information, Intelligence, maybe wisdom: 10,000+ pages of futures research by The Millennium Project 3. Software: Real-time Delphi (exert and crowd sourcing), State of the Future Index, Computer Models, Text and Data Mining
  • 33. Collective Intelligence • It emerges from the integration and synergies among • data/info/knowledge • software/hardware • experts and others with insight • that continually learns from feedback • to produce just in time knowledge for better decisions • than these elements acting alone.
  • 34. An Application of Collective Intelligence:
  • 35. … May become a TransInstitution The Millennium Project
  • 36. 50+ Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in: Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
  • 37. For further information: Jerome.Glenn@ Millennium-Project.org 202-686-5179 StateoftheFuture.org themp.org Global Futures Intelligence System
  • 38. For further information The Millennium Project 4421 Garrison Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016 USA +1-202-686-5179 phone/fax Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org www.StateoftheFuture.org www.themp.org (Global Futures Intelligence System)

Notas del editor

  1. International S&T Organization was created in this study: OTA revisited Evolves from an information system De facto regulator Aspects of ISTO: Form international guidelines with eminent experts Provide access to information about risk and opportunity Create a global S&T fund Produce annual Davos-like S&T forums Engage media and politicians to improve S&T discussion Create international treaties as consensus evolves