1. Will Venezuela be the
country with the world’s worst
macroeconomic performance
in 2016?
José Manuel Puente y Jesús Rodríguez
1

2. Macroeconomic Performance 2015
(OPEC countries)
-5,70 -6,09
-0,62
0,03
0,83 1,17
3,00 3,01
3,43 3,49
3,96
4,66 4,70180,9
11,7
3,7 3,0
14,0
3,3 3,3 2,0 2,1
13,9 10,5
4,6 1,6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Venezuela Libya Ecuador Iraq Iran Kuwait United
Arab
Emirates
Algeria Saudi
Arabia
Angola Nigeria Indonesia Qatar
-11,0
-9,0
-7,0
-5,0
-3,0
-1,0
1,0
3,0
5,0
GDP Growth % (Right-hand scale) Inflation (Left-hand scale)
Source: IMF and own calculations
2

3. Macroeconomic Performance 2015 (OPEC countries)
Countries
GDP
Growth (%)
Inflation
rate (%)
Venezuela -5,70 180.90
Libya -6.09 11.66
Ecuador -0.62 3.68
Iraq 0.03 3.00
Islamic Republic of Iran 0.83 14.00
Kuwait 1.17 3.30
United Arab Emirates 3.00 3.34
Algeria 3.01 2.00
Saudi Arabia 3.43 2.15
Angola 3.49 13.90
Nigeria 3.96 10.50
Indonesia 4.66 4.60
Qatar 4.70 1.61
Venezuela had by far the
worst macroeconomic
performance of the OPEC
Countries
3
Source: IMF and own calculations

4. Macroeconomic performance 2015
OPEC countries
4
Algeria
Angola
Ecuador
Indonesia
Iran
Kuwait
Libya
Qatar
Emiratos Arabes
Venezuela
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
-30 0 30 60 90 120 150 180
Growth
Inflation
High inflation
Negative growth
High growth and
moderate inflation
Moderate inflation
Negative growth
High inflation
Moderate growth
Source: IMF and own calculations

5. Macroeconomic Forecast
2016 (OPEC countries)
5
-8,00
2,51 2,32
3,96
-2,04
4,90
3,37
1,21
2,40
2,37
7,15
-4,50
3,40
720,0
19,2 12,0 9,0 7,2 4,5 4,3 3,8 3,4 3,2 2,0 0,8 0,0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Venezuela Angola Nigeria Iran Libya Indonesia Algeria Saudi
Arabia
Kuwait United
Arab
Emirates
Iraq Ecuador Qatar
-10,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
GDP Growth % (Right-hand scale) Inflation (Left-hand scale)
By far, Venezuela will have the worst macroeconomic
performance of the OPEC Countries
Source: IMF and own calculations

6. Macroeconomic forecast
2016 (OPEC countries)
Venezuela will have the
worst macroeconomic
performance of the
OPEC Countries
6
Countries
GDP
Growth (%)
Inflation
rate (%)
Venezuela -8.00 720.04
Angola 2.51 19.19
Nigeria 2.32 12.00
Iran 3.96 9.00
Libya -2.04 7.23
Indonesia 4.90 4.50
Algeria 3.37 4.30
Saudi Arabia 1.21 3.77
Kuwait 2.40 3.40
United Arab Emirates 2.37 3.20
Iraq 7.15 2.00
Ecuador -4.50 0.80
Qatar 3.40 0.00
Source: IMF and own calculations

7. GDP growth rate (%) 1958-2015
7
5,3%
10,7%
6,4%
4,2%
7,7% 7,6%
3,1%
6,3%
8,8%
6,7%
2,1%
-2,0%
-0,3%
0,7%
-5,6%
-1,4%
6,5%
5,8%
-8,6%
6,5%
9,7%
0,3%
-2,3%
4,0%
-0,2%
6,4%
-6,0%
3,7%
-8,9%
-7,8%
18,3%
9,9%
8,8%
5,3%
-3,2%
-1,5%
4,2%
5,6%
1,3%
-3,9%
-5,7%
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: IMF and own calculations

8. GDP quarterly growth rate
(2007-2015)
8
9,0%
8,4%
10,1%
7,7%
5,2%
7,8%
4,4%
3,9%
0,7%
-2,5%
-4,5%
-5,8%
-4,8%
-1,7%
-0,2%
0,5%
4,8%
2,6%
4,4%
4,9%
5,9% 5,6%
5,5% 5,5%
0,8%
2,6%
1,1%1,0%
-5,2%-5,4%
-2,7%-2,6%
-1,4%
-4,7%
-7,1%
-8,8%
-13%
-8%
-3%
2%
7%
12%
Source: IMF and own calculations

9. 9
GDP (%) change vs oil prices
9,0%
8,4%
10,1%
7,7%
5,2%
7,8%
4,4%
3,9%
0,7%
-2,5%
-4,5%
-5,8%
-4,8%
-1,7%
-0,2%
0,5%
4,8%
2,6%
4,4%4,9%
5,9%5,6%5,5%5,5%
0,8%
2,6%
1,1%1,0%
-5,2%
-5,4%
-2,7%-2,6%
-1,4%
-4,7%
-7,1%
-8,8%
110,07
67,95
112,04
104,57
97,71
54,40
-5
15
35
55
75
95
115
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Var. % PIB Promedio de Precios del petróleo
Source: Central Bank of Venezuela and own calculations

10. 10
GDP (%) change vs oil prices
4,8%
2,6%
4,4%
4,9%
5,9%
5,6% 5,5% 5,5%
0,8%
2,6%
1,1% 1,0%
-5,2% -5,4%
-2,7% -2,6%
-1,4%
-4,7%
-7,1%
-8,8%
91,95
112,04
104,57
96,18 97,71
92,38
67,71
35,75
0
20
40
60
80
100
-10%
-7%
-4%
-1%
2%
5%
8%
Var. % PIB Promedio de Precios del petróleo
Source: Central Bank of Venezuela and own calculations

11. Fiscal Surplus / Deficit
(1980-2015)
-0,8
1,7
-1,6 -1,2
2,6
1,5
-0,7 -0,2
-9,2
-0,9
3,8
-2,3
-6,4
-2,9
-11,2
-5,9
7,9
2,6
-4,5
0,7
4,5
-4,6
-1,5
0,2
2,5
4,1
-1,6
-2,8 -3,5
-8,7
-10,4
-11,6
-16,5
-14,5
-15,0
-24,4
During the last 10 years Venezuela
presented fiscal deficit
Source: IMF

12. Inflation rate in Venezuela
(period 1830-2015)
Last year Venezuela had the highest inflation
rate in its history

13. Economies with the highest
inflation rates in the world 2015
13
180,9
109,9
43,3
25,0 24,9
21,1 20,0 17,7 14,3 13,5 12,9
12,6
Venezuela South
Sudan
Ukraine Suriname Malawi Zambia Yemen Ghana Angola Moldova Russia Sudan
Source: IMF and own calculations

14. GDP accumulative growth
South American economies (1998-2015)
14
126,4%
95,9%
86,6%
84,0%
83,8%
78,1%
71,4%
60,0%
59,7%
58,1%
56,7%
34,1%
Peru
Bolivia
Chile
Colombia
Suriname
Ecuador
Paraguay
Guyana
Argentina
Brazil
Uruguay
Venezuela
Source: IMF and own calculations

15. Cumulative growth (%)
OPEC countries 2004-2015
15
248,1%
172,5%
113,9%
94,7%
82,7%
55,4%
54,2%
46,8%
45,8%
45,0%
36,4%
23,0%
-36,7%
Qatar
Angola
Nigeria
Indonesia
Iraq
Arabia Saudita
Emiratos Árabes
Ecuador
Algeria
Kuwait
Irán
Venezuela
Libya
Fuente: FMI and cálculos propios

16. Countries with the lowest expected
growth rate (%) in the world (2016)
16
-8,0
-7,8
-7,4
-7,2
-4,5
-3,8
-3,0
-2,7
-2,0
Venezuela
South Sudan
Equatorial Guinea
Macao SAR
Ecuador
Brazil
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Libya
Source: IMF and own calculations

17. Countries with the highest inflation rate
in the world (2012-2017)
17
541,5
15,1 11,3 8,5 7,5 7,0 6,4 5,8 5,3 4,9 4,7 4,0 3,9 3,6 3,3
Venezuela will have an
average inflation rate 35
times higher than Argentina
Source: IMF and own calculations

18. Countries with the highest average
inflation rate in the world (2012-2015)
18
82,2
11,4
8,5 8,4 7,2 6,9 6,7 5,7 5,5 4,8 4,6
5,97
Venezuela Argentina Suriname Uruguay Brazil Haiti Jamaica Trinidad
and
Tobago
Nicaragua Bolivia Honduras
Venezuela had an average
inflation rate 14 times higher
than Latin American average
Source: IMF and own calculations

19. BOP: Current Account
1998 – 2015 (USD Millions)
19
-4432
2.112
11.853
1.983
7.599
11.796
15.519
25.447 26.462
13.464
31.297
429
5.585
16.342
2.586
4.604 3.598
-18.150
Between 1999 and 2014 Venezuela had an
accumulated surplus of 180.676 USD millions
Source: BCV and own calculations

20. Evolution of GDP per capita (1980-2016)
20
2.120
2.024
1.775
1.816
1.783
1.868
1.910
1.985
1.668
1.718
1.841
1.908
1.870
1.786
1.816
1.775
1.850
1.819
1.677
1.705 1.728
1.545
1.398
1.623
1.757
1.905
2.038
2.110
2.010
1.949
2.000
2.080
2.075
1.964
1.823
1.652
1.350
1.450
1.550
1.650
1.750
1.850
1.950
2.050
2.150
2.250
Source: IMF and own calculations

21. Scenarios to recover the GDP per
capita of 1977
21
1.074,00
1.418,62
1.700,63
2.195,47
1.898,84
1.404,02
2.081,56
20442030
2025
2023
2021
1.646,62
2020
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2.000
2.200
2.400
PIB efectivo Crec. 1% Crec. 2% Crec. 3% Crec. 4% Crec. 5% Crec. 6%
Source: BCV and own calculations

22. Quantity of years to recover the GDP per
capita of 1977 (Bs. 2.195)
22
Años 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
2017 1.663,09 1.679,55 1.696,02 1.712,49 1.728,95 1.752,66
2018 1.679,72 1.713,14 1.746,90 1.780,99 1.815,40 1.865,53
2019 1.696,52 1.747,41 1.799,31 1.852,22 1.906,17 1.985,68
2020 1.713,48 1.782,36 1.853,29 1.926,31 2.001,48 2.195,47
2021 1.730,62 1.818,00 1.908,89 2.003,37 2.195,47 N/A
2022 1.747,92 1.854,36 1.966,15 2.083,50 N/A N/A
2023 1.765,40 1.891,45 2.025,14 2.195,47 N/A N/A
2024 1.783,05 1.929,28 2.085,89 N/A N/A N/A
2025 1.800,89 1.967,86 2.195,47 N/A N/A N/A
2026 1.818,89 2.007,22 N/A N/A N/A N/A
2027 1.837,08 2.047,37 N/A N/A N/A N/A
2028 1.855,45 2.088,31 N/A N/A N/A N/A
2029 1.874,01 2.130,08 N/A N/A N/A N/A
2030 1.892,75 2.195,47 N/A N/A N/A N/A
2031 1.911,68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2032 1.930,79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2033 1.950,10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2034 1.969,60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2035 1.989,30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2036 2.009,19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2037 2.029,28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2038 2.049,58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2039 2.070,07 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2040 2.090,77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2041 2.111,68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2042 2.132,80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2043 2.154,12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2044 2.195,47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Total Años 28 14 9 7 5 4
Source: BCV
and own
calculations

23. Evolution of minimum wage in constant prices of
1998-2016 (Base march 2016)
23
15.820 15.816
16.732 16.392
14.991 15.335
16.726
18.440
19.951 19.543 19.262
18.372 18.24817.896
19.801
18.833 18.806
14.291
11.095 11.578
9.896 9.455
Source: Official Gazettes, IMF and own calculations

24. 24
21.166
23.263
26.633
20.199
23.067
13.503
8.621
5.656
15.413
15.820
15.816
16.732 16.392
14.99115.335
16.726
18.440
19.951
19.543
19.262
18.372
18.24817.896
19.801
18.833 18.806
14.291
11.095
11.578
9.896
9.455
Source: Official Gazettes, IMF, and own calculations
Evolution of minimum wage in constant prices of
1989-2016 (Base march 2016)

25. Evolution of minimum wage in USD with official
exchange rate (1989-2016)
25
94,5
120,6
148,2
113,4
141,3
88,5
51,9
42,1
149,0
177,0184,8
205,6
204,9
137,4
154,4
167,3
188,4
238,4
285,9
371,7
450,0
284,6
360,1
476,2471,9
97,8
48,6 48,4 47,0
42,4
32,3
35,1
Source: Official Gazettes, IMF, and own calculations

26. Evolution of minimum wage in USD with
official exchange rate (1989-2016)
26
94,5
120,6
148,2
113,4
141,3
88,5
51,9
42,1
149,0
177,0
184,8
205,6 204,9
137,4
154,4
167,3
188,4
238,4
285,9
371,7
450,0
284,6
360,1
476,2 471,9
97,8
48,6
48,4 47,0 42,4
32,3
35,1
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
120,00
0
100
200
300
400
500
Salario mínimo en USD Precios del petróleo
Source: Official Gazettes, IMF, and own calculations

27. Evolution of minimum wage in USD with
non-official exchange rate (1989-2016)
27
94,5
120,6
148,2
113,4
141,3
88,5
51,9
42,1
149,0
177,0184,8
205,6204,9
137,4
154,4
167,3
188,4
238,4
285,9
371,7
450,0
141,7
167,7
119,1
46,4
28,0
11,1 10,8 9,3 9,9 10,4 11,9
Salario mínimo en USD Polinómica (Salario mínimo en USD)
Source: Official Gazettes, IMF, and own calculations

28. Risk Country EMBI+
Venezuela – Latin América
28
1678
1301
2447
2727
3375
710
466
645
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
I-2004
II-2004
III-2004
IV-2004
I-2005
II-2005
III-2005
IV-2005
I-2006
II-2006
III-2006
IV-2006
I-2007
II-2007
III-2007
IV-2007
I-2008
II-2008
III-2008
IV-2008
I-2009
II-2009
III-2009
IV-2009
I-2010
II-2010
III-2010
IV-2010
I-2011
II-2011
III-2011
IV-2011
I-2012
II-2012
III-2012
IV-2012
I-2013
II-2013
III-2013
IV-2013
I-2014
II-2014
III-2014
IV-2014
I-2015
II-2015
III-2015
IV-2015
I-2016
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EMBI Global Venezuela EMBI Global Latin EMBI Global Peru EMBI Global Mexico EMBI Colombia EMBI Global Brazil
Source: Central Bank of Peru and own calculations

29. Risk Country EMBI+
Venezuela – Latin América
29
1678
1301 1274
1096
2910
2.727
3375
453
710
466 430
541
645
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
I-2004
II-2004
III-2004
IV-2004
I-2005
II-2005
III-2005
IV-2005
I-2006
II-2006
III-2006
IV-2006
I-2007
II-2007
III-2007
IV-2007
I-2008
II-2008
III-2008
IV-2008
I-2009
II-2009
III-2009
IV-2009
I-2010
II-2010
III-2010
IV-2010
I-2011
II-2011
III-2011
IV-2011
I-2012
II-2012
III-2012
IV-2012
I-2013
II-2013
III-2013
IV-2013
I-2014
II-2014
III-2014
IV-2014
I-2015
II-2015
III-2015
IV-2015
I-2016
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EMBI Global Venezuela EMBI Global Latin
Source: Central Bank of Peru and own calculations

30. GDP and Inflation Forecast 2016-2018
(International Monetary Fund)
30
Inflacion (%) PIB (%)
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
Argentina 24.95% 20.00% 15.00% -1.01% 2.78% 2.91%
Bolivia 5.01% 5.01% 5.01% 3.80% 3.50% 3.50%
Brazil 7.15% 6.04% 5.51% -3.80% -0.01% 1.05%
Chile 3.53% 3.00% 3.00% 1.54% 2.10% 2.70%
Colombia 5.29% 3.33% 3.00% 2.50% 2.97% 3.72%
Ecuador 0.80% 0.00% 0.80% -4.50% -4.29% -0.88%
Mexico 3.31% 3.02% 2.99% 2.41% 2.57% 2.77%
Panama 0.80% 2.00% 2.00% 6.10% 6.40% 6.70%
Paraguay 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 2.89% 3.23% 3.50%
Peru 3.42% 2.50% 2.49% 3.74% 4.12% 3.58%
Uruguay 9.08% 8.07% 6.68% 1.39% 2.59% 3.03%
Venezuela 720.04% 2200.02% 3000.01% -8.00% -4.50% -3.00%
Average 65.66% 188.12% 254.25% 0.59% 1.79% 2.47%
Average without Venezuela 6.17% 5.22% 4.63% 1.37% 2.36% 2.96%
Mean 4.76% 3.91% 3.75% 1.97% 2.68% 2.97%
Max 720.0% 2200% 3000% 6.10% 6.40% 6.70%
Min 0.80% 0.00% 0.80% -8.00% -4.50% -3.00%

31. After 17 years and US$900.000 millions of oil income we have a poverty rate and an
extreme poverty rate higher than 1998…
27,0
23,1
49,9
ENCOVI 2015
No pobres Pobres Pobres extremos
73%
55,0
26,3
18,7
ENSO 1998
No pobres Pobres Pobres extremos
45%
Fuente: Encuesta Social (ENSO) 1998. PNUD-OCEI. 2000 Fuente: Encuesta Condiciones de Vida (ENCOVI) 2015. UCAB-USB-UCV. 2015
Fuente: Marino J. González R. Las vulnerabilidades en la vida de los venezolanos. Caracas 2015. Unidad de Políticas Públicas.
• According to social surveys, households in poverty situation jumped from
45% to 73% in 2015
• Households in poverty situation increased by 62,2% and extreme poverty
increased by 167,4% in the 1998-2015 period.
Households below the poverty line (by Income)

32. Net foreign direct investment 1998-2014
32
Year Brasil México Argentina Perú Colombia Venezuela
1999 26,886.00 13,880.50 22,257.42 1,812.01 1,392.37 2,018.00
2000 30,497.61 18,298.02 9,517.27 809.70 2,111.11 4,180.00
2001 24,714.94 25,580.08 2,005.26 1,069.86 2,525.82 3,479.00
2002 14,108.10 23,096.06 2,776.04 2,155.84 1,276.93 -244.00
2003 9,894.22 17,643.01 878.23 1,275.01 782.81 722.00
2004 8,338.90 20,605.72 3,448.72 1,599.04 2,873.19 864.00
2005 12,549.59 18,194.88 3,954.20 2,578.72 5,590.04 1,422.00
2006 -9,380.28 14,940.15 3,098.63 3,466.53 5,557.70 -2,032.00
2007 27,518.24 23,927.54 4,968.92 5,425.38 8,135.99 1,587.00
2008 24,601.09 27,179.55 8,334.62 6,187.85 8,110.37 45.00
2009 36,032.81 7,451.82 3,307.22 5,165.29 3,789.30 -4,374.00
2010 36,918.92 7,977.84 10,367.96 7,062.35 -146.64 -1,462.00
2011 67,689.14 10,372.79 9,231.93 8,119.30 5,101.10 4,919.00
2012 68,093.25 -4,339.00 13,889.00 11,840.00 16,135.16 756.00
2013 67,491.16 28,955.00 10,256.00 9,161.00 8,546.00 2,400.00
2014 64,000.00 9.310.00 2,945.00 6,860.00 12,818.00 1,000.00
Total 509,953.69 263,073.96 111,236.42 74,587.88 95,299.28 15,280.00