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Systems thinking

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Systems thinking

  1. 1. systems thinking @JonJagger jon@jaggersoft.com jonjagger.blogspot.co.uk Sunday, 2 March 14
  2. 2. thinking about systems as dynamic, evolving patterns of interaction and feedback Sunday, 2 March 14
  3. 3. it is an axiom that influence is both a cause and an effect. nothing is ever influenced in just one direction. Peter's Axiom Sunday, 2 March 14
  4. 4. to say that certain events are causally connected is only a clumsy way of saying they are features of the same event Sunday, 2 March 14
  5. 5. The Causation Fallacies every effect has a cause and we can tell which is which. Jerry Weinberg Sunday, 2 March 14
  6. 6. cause effect ? defects Sunday, 2 March 14 lateness
  7. 7. cause effect ? defects Sunday, 2 March 14 lateness
  8. 8. Sunday, 2 March 14
  9. 9. Scrum Buses http://jonjagger.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/scrum-buses.html Sunday, 2 March 14
  10. 10. feedback Sunday, 2 March 14
  11. 11. XP values ? .o.r.g. .o.m.n.c.t.o. .i.p.i.i.y .e.d.a.k Sunday, 2 March 14
  12. 12. XP values Courage Communication Simplicity Feedback Sunday, 2 March 14
  13. 13. Scrum Guide " Scrum Teams deliver products iteratively and incrementally, maximizing opportunities for feedback. Sprint Review: ... the presentation of the Increment is intended to elicit feedback and foster collaboration. " Sunday, 2 March 14
  14. 14. just calling it "feedback" doesn't mean that it has actually fed back Sunday, 2 March 14
  15. 15. the amount of feedback built into living organisms differs by many orders of magnitude from the amount we build into man-made systems. John Gall Sunday, 2 March 14
  16. 16. there is not one living creature that lacks that integrated, total unification through feedback. John Gall Sunday, 2 March 14
  17. 17. compared to a frog or a salamander, our biggest manmade systems seem like simple wind-up toys. John Gall Sunday, 2 March 14
  18. 18. ignoring feedback merely means that the system will eventually experience a massive unpleasant surprise (rather than a small unpleasant surprise) John Gall Sunday, 2 March 14
  19. 19. it may look like a crisis, but it's only the end of an illusion Sunday, 2 March 14
  20. 20. change Sunday, 2 March 14
  21. 21. blood Sunday, 2 March 14 sugar
  22. 22. Sunday, 2 March 14
  23. 23. Sunday, 2 March 14
  24. 24. is Sunday, 2 March 14
  25. 25. is Sunday, 2 March 14
  26. 26. Hyperglycemia causes is Sunday, 2 March 14
  27. 27. Hyperglycemia senses causes is Sunday, 2 March 14 pancreas
  28. 28. Hyperglycemia senses causes pancreas causes insulin is Sunday, 2 March 14
  29. 29. Hyperglycemia senses causes pancreas causes insulin senses is liver & muscles Sunday, 2 March 14
  30. 30. Hyperglycemia senses causes pancreas causes causes insulin glycogen senses is liver & muscles Sunday, 2 March 14
  31. 31. Hyperglycemia senses causes pancreas causes causes insulin glycogen senses is liver & muscles Sunday, 2 March 14
  32. 32. Hyperglycemia senses causes pancreas causes causes insulin glycogen senses is causes Hypoglycemia Sunday, 2 March 14 liver & muscles
  33. 33. Hyperglycemia senses causes pancreas causes causes insulin glycogen senses is causes liver & muscles senses Hypoglycemia pancreas Sunday, 2 March 14
  34. 34. Hyperglycemia senses causes pancreas causes causes insulin glycogen senses is causes liver & muscles senses Hypoglycemia causes pancreas Sunday, 2 March 14 glucagon
  35. 35. Hyperglycemia senses causes pancreas causes causes insulin glycogen senses is senses causes liver & muscles senses Hypoglycemia causes pancreas Sunday, 2 March 14 glucagon
  36. 36. Hyperglycemia senses causes pancreas causes causes insulin glycogen senses is causes causes senses liver & muscles senses Hypoglycemia causes pancreas Sunday, 2 March 14 glucagon
  37. 37. Le Chatelier's Principle systems tend to oppose their own proper function. Henri Louis Le Chatelier Sunday, 2 March 14
  38. 38. all change can be understood as the effort to maintain some constancy... ...and all constancy as maintained through change. Sunday, 2 March 14
  39. 39. the battle over food and territory between two species is only one half of the story... ...the battle is a means or process of generating, maintaining, and stabilizing an ecosystem Gregory Bateson Steps to an Ecology of Mind (I think) Sunday, 2 March 14
  40. 40. evolution is always co-evolution Sunday, 2 March 14
  41. 41. what is involved is not simply survival of the fittest but survival of the fitting-in-est Sunday, 2 March 14
  42. 42. Sunday, 2 March 14
  43. 43. Sunday, 2 March 14
  44. 44. Sunday, 2 March 14
  45. 45. Sunday, 2 March 14
  46. 46. Sunday, 2 March 14
  47. 47. Sunday, 2 March 14
  48. 48. slack Sunday, 2 March 14
  49. 49. moving from 75% to 95% utilization increases variability by 25 times Sunday, 2 March 14
  50. 50. flow utilization Sunday, 2 March 14 75% 95%
  51. 51. that which optimizes one part of the system necessarily undermines the system as a whole. Sunday, 2 March 14
  52. 52. whole Sunday, 2 March 14 > parts
  53. 53. Pu239 Sunday, 2 March 14
  54. 54. 2kg + 3kg == 5kg Sunday, 2 March 14
  55. 55. 5kg + 5kg == Sunday, 2 March 14 ?
  56. 56. Sunday, 2 March 14
  57. 57. in medio stats virtus Sunday, 2 March 14
  58. 58. The Law of Unintended Consequences http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobra_effect Sunday, 2 March 14
  59. 59. systems thinking @JonJagger jon@jaggersoft.com jonjagger.blogspot.co.uk Sunday, 2 March 14

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