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IEEE Library Board Presentation, Joseph Esposito, Sept. 2018

A presentation on disruptive items in scholarly communications and how publishers are responding to this by developing an "upstreaming" strategy

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IEEE Library Board Presentation, Joseph Esposito, Sept. 2018

  1. 1. Upstreaming: The Migration of Economic Value in Scholarly Publishing A Presentation to the IEEE Library Advisory Board October 18, 2018 Joseph J. Esposito Senior Partner Clarke & Esposito, LLC 1
  2. 2. Meet the new boss / Same as the old boss —The Who But when you talk about destruction / Don't you know that you can count me out (in) — The Beatles I think the world is going to be saved by millions of small things — Pete Seeger 2 Choose Your Epigraph Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  3. 3. Topics 3 What is the value chain? How have publishers exploited the traditional value chain? Where do libraries fit into the value chain? What disruptive technology disrupts The lengthening (downstream) of the value chain The loss of control (by publishers) of the traditional value chain The opportunities upstream The impact on different players (e.g., libraries, researchers) Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  4. 4. Publishers traditionally made their money by focusing on the end-product of a long chain of events By weakening the hold publishers had on that product, the fixed text, digital technology has disrupted publishers’ economic model. All participants in that chain of events— researchers, funding agencies, publishers, libraries, archivists, data analysts—are affected by this switch. To counter this, publishers increasingly look elsewhere in that chain of events, typically at the steps that precede the final text. This is upstreaming. 4 Why Upstreaming? Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  5. 5. 5 A value chain is a high-level model developed by Michael Porter used to describe the process by which businesses receive raw materials, add value to the raw materials through various processes to create a finished product, and then sell the finished product to customers - Investopedia What Is a Value Chain? Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  6. 6. Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE 6 Q: What is the Publishing Value Chain? A: The publishing value chain begins with research and ends with the final publication
  7. 7. Research Authorship Article / Book Submission Editorial Review Publishing Agreement Production Marketing Sales Distribution Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE The Publishing Value Chain 7
  8. 8. How Libraries Fit into the Publishing Value Chain • Libraries are downstream, serving as publishers’ customers and the curators of materials post-publication • Libraries themselves have their own value chain • Different from publishers’ • Intersects with publishers at the time of purchase • Through support of Open Access, libraries create a new or modified value chain • Publishers as service providers • Libraries often manage an institution’s OA fund • Libraries index and enhance discovery of OA materials Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE 8
  9. 9. • Contracts vary • Publisher by publisher • Project by project • Format by format (e.g., books, journals) • Author by author • Regionally • Contracts codify agreements for a particular value chain • Example: Gold Open Access differs from print book contract • Changes in the value chain puts stress on contracts • E.g., development of Creative Commons licenses 9 Sidebar: Publishing Agreements Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  10. 10. Working with the Traditional Publishing Value Chain - 1 Upstream, publishers keep an eye on authors • Regularly encourage submissions • Sometimes commission work Submissions are evaluated; successful authors offered contracts Publishers get full or almost full economic rights • Copyright monopoly • Non-compete clause Publishers add value in production Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE 10
  11. 11. Working with the Traditional Publishing Value Chain - 2 Final form of publication is implemented (e.g., printed book or journal) Marketing department creates demand (advertising, PR, etc.) Sales department solicits customers Final publication delivered to customers, often libraries Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE 11
  12. 12. The Internet as global copy machine • Undermines monopoly nature of copyright • Undermines non-compete clauses • Interferes with the business model at the tail end of the value chain 12 How Does Disruptive Technology Disrupt? Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  13. 13. Reduced cost of competing infrastructure • Once had to own the press • Today WordPress powers 30% of Web sites Open Source Free 13 How Does Disruptive Technology Disrupt? “Freedom of the press is guaranteed only to those who own one” —A.J. Liebling Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  14. 14. 14 Disruption as Aspect of Policy • Research funders now stipulate how research gets published • Preference for Gold Open Access • Downward pressure on article processing charges (APCs) • Declared aim by some to do away with journals as “unnecessary artifact of print” Image Credit: Wizard of Id The New Golden Rule Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  15. 15. • File sharing creates a new step in the value chain after the final text • Open Access reduces the incentive to invest in content • E.g., eliminates reprint sales (in clinical medicine) • Undermines advertising revenue • Loss of monopoly status/control of fixed content • Piracy, a function of digital media, undermines monopoly copyright • In sum, the traditional value chain has been disrupted Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE 15 The Plight of Publishers (for those who care)
  16. 16. Sidebar: Sci-Hub and Piracy • The most conspicuous pirate site (of many) • Collection rivals that of the largest university libraries (books and journals) • Many security issues • Use of scholars’ credentials • Questions about source of funding (and motivation) • A scholar who is willing to use Sci-Hub has no need for authorized publications Totally disruptive to traditional value chain Why subscribe when you can steal? Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE 16
  17. 17. Sci-Hub’s Impact on other Parties • Scholars get a “free” and near-comprehensive library • Could undermine the economics of a scholar’s own professional society • Security issues (e.g., stolen IDs) could be serious • Paradoxical relationship with libraries • Introduces security issues, draws away traffic, and undermines library funding • On the other hand, allows for aggressive negotiations with publishers “Give us a good deal, or we will turn our scholars over to Sci-Hub” Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE 17
  18. 18. 18 What’s a Publisher To Do? Traditional models challenged on all sides Play Defense • Litigation • Political Lobbying Use Scale to Fight Back The Bulwark strategy • Recruit societies to join largest publishers’ offerings May be useless against disruptive policy changes Seek new Revenue Streams • Upstream • Downstream Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  19. 19. Downstream Opportunities - 1 Archiving / life-cycle management • Historically the role of librarians • Portico and LOCKSS already in market Scholarly Collaboration Networks (e.g., ResearchGate) • Serious copyright questions • Litigation already underway TDM – Text and Data Mining • What is the business model? • Legal situation not entirely resolved 19Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  20. 20. Downstream Opportunities - 2 Research Management • Opens up new categories of customers (e.g., administrators) • Examples: SciVal (Elsevier), Symplectic (Digital Science) Expanding access to published materials • Gap in the market for a comprehensive database to solve this common problem • Creation of the “supercontinent” of research material (R. Schonfeld) • Growing interest among largest publishers to hoard materials for their own use 20Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  21. 21. Upstream Opportunities Preprints • Cannot charge for content • Opportunities in hosting (BioRxiv), TDM, and data analytics Workflow Tools • Examples: Publons, Kopernio (both Clarivate Analytics) • Open questions – who is the customer? How big is the market? 21Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  22. 22. Upstream Business Models Sales of new services • Example: Aries Editorial Manager (now Elsevier) • Associated revenue is relatively small Business intelligence to support content business • Mendeley helps Elsevier get a view of entire market • RedLink (independent) provides data analytics to help increase publishers’ sales and library collections strategy Discovery services as portal Linked tools could enforce lock-in to a single vendor 22Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  23. 23. 23 Issues for Libraries - 1 Budget problems are ongoing Largest companies continue to increase their clout Will provosts continue to support libraries if the core responsibility of collecting content moves elsewhere(e.g., to OA hosting sites)? OA, piracy, and SCNs represent rivals for researcher attention Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  24. 24. 24 Issues for Libraries - 2 Ability to adapt to changing priorities of constituencies and evolving environment Trans-institutional resources developed to counter influence of largest publishers On one hand, library skills (e.g., indexing) decouple from traditional publications; on the other, same skills applied to resources beyond local collections Broader mandate (e.g., textbook affordability) as library responsibilities migrate to new areas Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  25. 25. 25 Issues for Publishers Upstreaming requires scale – which may hurt smaller professional societies Swift M&A actions are necessary Possibly there is more data than business opportunities Likely need to find new classes of customers beyond library sales, such as administrators or researchers themselves Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  26. 26. 26 Issues for Researchers / Authors Soaring number of publishing venues (and a disconnect between disruptive forces and career advancement strategy) Complexity of literature search and validating quality within a growing volume of material Managing unprecedented requirements from funding agencies (mandated OA, restrictions on fees, e.g., Plan S) What about academic freedom??? Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  27. 27. 27 Issues for Funding Agencies Funding disruptions upstream fly in the face of the academic reputation system Funding agency coverage not comprehensive – not all research is supported by funders (e.g., humanities) Danger that devaluation of journal brands will make funding decisions harder to assess Creates a positive obligation to fund publishing as well as research Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  28. 28. Joe’s Crystal Ball Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE 28 • Pluralistic environment • Neither all OA nor all toll-access • Libraries increasingly extend reach beyond their own collections • Shared services • Curation of OA content • Largest companies remain highly significant • Workflow tools increasingly interwoven with content • New companies largely do R&D for industry (then get acquired)
  29. 29. • Clarivate is the likeliest model for publishers • Focus on metacontent and tools • Large business outside the academy • Elsevier moving aggressively in this direction • Has need to protect content revenue • Despite pressure on libraries, librarianship extends its reach into new areas • Concern that professional societies may be left behind • Matter of scale/resources • Membership not uniformly motivated by non-editorial activity 29 What Does the Future Landscape Look Like? Clarke & Esposito, a presentation to IEEE
  30. 30. Thank You! Joseph J. Esposito Senior Partner Clarke & Esposito, LLC jesposito@ce-strategy.com @josephjesposito 30

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