1. MSB Housing Needs
Assessment Overview
By: Joshua Allen, MPA
MSB Planner II
March 24, 2015
Joint MSB Assembly & Planning Commission Meeting

2. MSB Population
3,594
3,225
4,153
3,621
2,701
3,053
2,908
3,238
2,999
3,645
3,768
3,362
2,316
1,447
1,016
660
314
152
3,213
3,244
3,647
3,383
2,461
2,784
2,866
2,928
3,015
3,395
3,496
2,991
2,132
1,224
1,012
601
447
308
4200 2100 0 2100 4200
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 & Over
2012 Population: 89,319
Male Female
Baby
Boomers
1943-1962
20,736
(23.2%)
Gen X
1963-1982
24,994
(37.9%)
Millennial
1983-2002
25,803
(28.8%)
Gen Z
2003-Present
13,276
(14.8%)
Silent
Generati
on
1925-
1942
4,510
(5%)
And Still Growing!
Current = 98,063
2020 = 125,000
2030 = 165,000

3. 1996
Memory
Lake
Seldon Rd
ChurchRd
Pittman Rd
Spruce Rd

4. 2012

5. Household Change
316 917 2,539 4,183 7,106 10,500 14,500
476 1,573
3,888
6,486
10,659
15,500
21,000
260
1,115
2,365
3,479
5,238
7,000
8,000
240
1,104
2,515
3,463
4,444 5,500 6,500
237
574
1,287 1,710 2,396 3,000 3,800
162
258 514 715 1,112 1,500 2,000138
170 286 520 869 1,250 1,800
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970 Census 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 2030
7 or more persons 6 Persons 5 Persons 4 Persons 3 Persons 2 Persons 1 Person
Average Size
3.4 3.06 2.9 2.84 2.75 2.65 2.55

6. Household Change
372 1,204
3,200
5,499 9,245 13,500 19,000
1,469 4,495
10,301
15,057 22,579 30,500 40,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970 Census 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 2030
Family Households Nonfamily Households

7. Senior (65+) Households189
552
1,160
2,587
5,287
8,500
12,500
1,651
5,159
12,341
17,965
26,537
35,500
49,500
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970
Census
1980
Census
1990
Census
2000
Census
2010
Census
2020 2030
Moderate Growth
Senior Households Households
189
552
1,160
2,587
5,287
13,000
30,000
1,651
5,159
12,341
17,965
26,537
35,500
49,500
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970
Census
1980
Census
1990
Census
2000
Census
2010
Census
2020 2030
Fast Growth
Senior Households Households

8. Affordable Housing Income Spectrum
Extremely Very Low Low Median
Low Income Income Income Income
Young
Skilled
Workers
Homeless
Singles &
Couples
Single
Parents &
Children
Seniors &
Disabled
Working
Poor Young
Professionals
Essential
or
Service
Workers
Work Force Housing
30% 50% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Household
Median Income
1 Person: $55,000
2 Person: $62,800
3 Person: $70,700
4 Person: $78,500

9. Less than
$10,000
$10,000 to
$14,999
$15,000 to
$24,999
$25,000 to
$34,999
$35,000 to
$49,999
$50,000 to
$74,999
$75,000 to
$99,999
$100,000
to
$149,999
$150,000
to
$199,999
$200,000
or more
All Households 1,346 1,314 2,600 2,113 3,178 5,963 4,863 6,072 2,198 1,476
Family Households 711 477 1,099 1,283 1,938 4,368 3,974 5,395 1,950 1,242
Nonfamily Households 635 837 1,501 830 1,240 1,595 889 677 248 234
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Households
MSB Household Income Distribution
Source: US Census 2013 ACS 5-yr Estimate
Median
Incomes
Extr.
Low
17%
Very
Low
16%
Low
19%
Above
Low
48%
Nonfamily Households
Extr.
Low
5%
Very
Low
5%
Low
12%
Above
Low
78%
Family Households

10. 77% of the
Housing Supply!
Total Units: 35,021
Total Parcels: 29,924
Total Acres: 81,092
Average Acreage: 2.71
Unit Density Per Acre: 0.43
Average Units Per Parcel: 1.17
Average Acreage Per Unit: 2.32
Single
Family
81.81%
Mobile
Home
3.82%
Duplex
3.49%
Multifamily
9.55%
Group
Quarters
0.32%
Mobile
Home Park
1.01%

11. Housing Supply
9,821
16,218 24,181 34,000 45,000
3,573
4,338 7,643
13,500 22,0004,479
5,244 6,823
9,200 12,400
7,559
6,773 9,505
9,500 14,500
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Owner Occuppied Renter Occupied Seasonal & Recreational Vacant
Projected housing shortage if development remains unchanged!
Population Needs Meet Average Vacancy Projected Built Shortage
2020: 47,170 units 57,768 units 53,000 units 4,500+ units
2030: 64,706 units 79,244 units 70,000 units 9,000+ units

12. Cost Trends
Household Income
2009
Family: $65,600
Nonfamily: $51,000
2014
Family: $65,070**
Nonfamily: $49,843**
Flat-lined & Declining
**Adjusted for inflation in 2009 Dollars w/US Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation Calculator
2009
Average Sales Price
$212,594
2014
Average Sales Price
$212,454**
Keeping up with Inflation
Home Sales
2009
Average Rent
$806
2014
Average Rent
$922**
Exceeding Inflation!
Rentals

13. Average Rental vs. Buying
900’/sq 2 bedroom 1 bath
Knik-Goosebay Rd.
Rent
Source: Zillow
Buy
Rental Cost
$975/mo + $200 Utilities
Total: $1,175/mo
Income Considered Affordable
$23/hr or $48,000/yr
900’/sq 2 bedroom 1 bath
Neil Circle
20yr Mortgage Cost @ 4%
Payment: $667/mo
Utilities: $200/mo
Insurance: $67/mo
Taxes: $110/mo
PMI: $90
Total: $1,134/mo
Income Considered Affordable
$21/hr or $44,000/yr

14. Rental Affordability
$975/mo + $200 Utilities $1,500/mo + $300 Utilities
Median Income
Low Income
(80% Median)
Very Low Income
(50% Median)
Extremely Low
Income - Poverty
(30% Median)
Average
Rentals

15. Nonfamily HouseholdsFamily Households
Unmet Housing Needs
Unmet Needs
4,659 Households
(34%)
Needs Met
9,245 Households
(66%)
Needs Met
22,579 Households
(83%)
Unmet Needs
4,604 Households
(17%)
Needs Met
67,975
People
(76%)
Family
15,194
People
(17%)
Nonfamily
6,150 People
(7%)

16. Importance of Affordable Housing

17. The Current Situation

19. Future Considerations

20. Conclusion
Nonfamily Family
RentalsOwnership

21. Questions?

22. Thank You!
For More Info Contact:
Joshua Allen, MSB Planner II
350 E. Dahlia Ave.
Palmer, AK 99645
(907)861-8514
joshua.allen@matsugov.us