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Sense the move to futures

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Sense the move to futures

  1. 1. Speech:  10^7 bits  Tribes Writing:  10^11 bits  City cultures Printing:  10^17 bits  Renaissance  Industrial society Digital:  10^25 bits  ??? culture Donald Robertson: New Renaissance
  2. 2. … but our brains are still in the speech learning stage Gutenberg Encyclopedia
  3. 3. Sense the move to futures Jyrki J.J. Kasvi
  4. 4. Euro debt crises come and go True megatrends reshape our societies for good  Climate change and environmental sustainability – A growing part of economic growth is going to be used on emission control and adaptation to climate change  Global demographic change – The average Finnish age is about 40 years • Half of Finnish voters are pensioners - a retired nation – In developing countries the great generations are becoming adults • Every third Egyptian is under 15 years of age  Global networking and dependency – The rise of BRIC countires to economic, cultural and military superpowers  New technologies are shaping our societies – ICT now penetrates our societies
  5. 5. Dependency ratio collapses … right about now People under 15 and over 65 years of age per 100 working age people 0-14 yr olds Over 65 yr olds Statistics Finland 13.9.2012 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 6
  6. 6. Baby booms 13.9.2012 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 7
  7. 7. E.g. robot baby seals were used to comfort elderly Japanese who had lost everything in the tsunami (NHK Video screenshot)
  8. 8. Helsinki city is testing care robots for the elderly Center for Intelligent Robotics KIST, Korea.
  9. 9. Less threatening ICT for elderly Addoz Oy
  10. 10. Sea levels are not starting to rise Global warming art. 13.9.2012 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 11
  11. 11. How high do you live? Global warming art. Post glacial rebound in Southern Finland.
  12. 12. Running out  With current usage we run out of (New Scientist)  indium, terbium, hafnium and lead on this decade  silver, tin, antimony and uranium on next decade  Nickel, platinum, tantalum, zinc, chrome, copper and gold on this century  New technologies influence demand for raw materials  In 2003 a kilogram of indium cost $60, in 2006 $1000  Fuel cells require loads of platinum – Street dust is already “mined” for platinum falling off from car catalysers – 1,5 / 1.000.000 street dust particles can be platinum  Efficient solar cells would be on market if there were enough indium and gallium  China has 95% of know reserves of rare earths and controls also African mines – The civil war in Congo is a war to control local tantalum mines  Economic growth has been based on expanding consumption of raw materials and energy  Future growth has to be based on increasing raw material productivity  China is already buying and storing electronic waste
  13. 13. A future mine Ashley Felton: Public domain
  14. 14. Finland was one of the winners of globalisation Why make pulp and paper in Finland in the Future… • from slowly growing expensive trees? • far away from still growing paper markets? • with Finnish labour costs? 15 Verace Sustainability Report 2006
  15. 15. The World in 2050’s GDP billion US$ 70.000 60.000 Goldman Sachs, ECS Research 50.000 40.000 30.000 Brazil Russia 20.000 China India USA 10.000 • Asia returns to the centre of the World • Europe misses its chance to stay a world power 13.9.2012 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 16
  16. 16. Waves of technology Fusion Globalisation society GNP Biotech ?? yrs Complexity society Speed of change 25 yrs Information society 50 yrs Industrial You are here! society Agricultural 250 yrs socety 6000-7000 yrs Mika Mannermaa Government and education have trouble keeping up.
  17. 17. Forecasting is difficult  ”I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”  Thomas Watson, IBM CEO ,1943.  ”Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.”  Popular Mechanics magazine on development of science, 1949.  ”There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.”  Ken Olson, President of DEC, World Future Society Convention, 1977  "You aren't going to turn passive consumers into active trollers on the Internet."  Stephen Weiswasser, senior VP, ABC television, 1989  "The Internet? Bah!"  Newsweek headline, 1995  Science fiction has often been more accurate than respectable futures research  True Names, Vernor Vinge.
  18. 18. E.g. ”Brain pacer” Science fiction has inspired developers of ICT (True24.9.2009 Neuromancer, …) Names, 19
  19. 19. Which society?  Information society  Information is the key mean, object and result of culture and economy  ICT society  Emphasises the role of technology as definer os socety: ”The code is law.”  Ubiquitous society  Technology is omnipresent and transparent to its users.  Network society  Emphasises the role of social networks and networking.  Postmodern society  Post industrial society with overlapping meanings and perspecives.  Fusion society  ICT combined with nano, bio, gene and cognitive technologies
  20. 20. Evolution of Internet  1980’s: Internet is a network of computers  Still the technological definition of Internet: Network of computers using the TCP/IP-protocol  1990’s: Internet is a network of information  Ted Nelson’s Xanadu  WWW = URL addres & HTTP protocol & HTML language  2000’s: Internet is a network of people  Social media CC 2.0 Generic Attribution Robert Scolbe  Networking and sharing Tim Berners-Leen WWW-palvelin.  2010’s: Internet becomes a network of things  Ubiquitous society  Ipv6, rfid
  21. 21. The next 50 years  Industrial revolution had two stages  The first ~50 years the technology evolved  The next ~50 years that technology reshaped the basic structures of our societies  Now ICT has penetrated our society in ~50 years  The structures created by industrial revolution are crumbling  The pace of technological and societal change is rapidly increasing  It took 100-120 yrs to build the global wired telephone network.  It took 10 yrs to build a corresponding global wireless phone network  It took 2-3 years for social media to become a global phenomenon  In ten years time anything can be in everyday use even if it has not been invented yet.  A child going to school this autumn is going to be working in the 2070’s. 13.9.2012 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 22
  22. 22. Horst Zuse The pace of change has not slowed since these days. US Army Photo 7.4.2008 23
  23. 23. Era of sharing  Information is like money. It creates new information and benefits society only when it is used and invested.  Money locked in a money bin is as useless ase information stored in a closed database.  Governments are opening their databases  Improves government transparency and exposes corruption  Increases growth of data intensive service SME’s  Enhances cross-government data use – In EU the direct savings potential is 40 billion €/y and indirect 100 billion  ”Knowldedge is not power anymore, sharing of knowledge is.” – Teemu Arina  “The best way to get value from data is to give it away” – Neelie Kroes, Vice-President of the European Commission and Commissioner of the Digital Agenda
  24. 24. Open data: a public service created by active citizens: Combines data scraped from labour office web pages with map data and public transport timetables. 13.9.2012 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 25
  25. 25. Free is the new black  The most popular mobile game in the world is free  Over one billion downloads  The most popular search engines, map services and email services are free  But Facebook and Google are not charities!  The most popular Internet multi player game is free  Over 35 million registered players  One of the most awarded comics in the world is free  E.g. Hugo in 2009, 2010 and 2011  The most watched Finnish movie is free  3,5 – 4 million downloads in 2 months  Technology has always improved productivity and cut prices, now almost to nothing …  Free is a new way to make money!
  26. 26. Cumulonimbus  Data, software and data processing are being tranferred from own servers to the cloud ...  Capital not tied to own hardware – Enables flexible adaptation and development  Optimises computing power and resource use – E.g. The proposed U.K G-Cloud was estimated to save CC SA Attribution Sugree £3,2 billion per year  ... and becoming on-demand services  When data and applications are in different clouds and you control the API’s you can tender and change service providers  The cloud does not respect geographic border, but borders do matter  Client, service provider, data and porcessing may be in different countries – E.g. Consumer protection, data security and privacy legislation are different – Server location determines juridistiction  International rules do not exist and even national laws are outdated  Contracts and EULA’s
  27. 27. E.g. Cloud television  Broadcast-television is becoming an on-demand cloud service  In 2010 NetFlix created 20% of US Internet traffic  Finnish law carefully avoids the subject of Internet television  Control transfers from TV companies to viewers  Broadcast channels are left with news and current issues  Television companies and authorities react slowly  New companies are ready to take over the TV market  Old IPR contracts do not cover ipTV  Pirates’ P2P networks are still popular with better selection, quality and service than legal content providers
  28. 28. Media revolution  Internet has already replaced television  Finns spend as much time in Internet as watching TV  Watcher controlled ipTV  E-readers replace papers and books  Bookstores are facing the fate of record stores  Games have been a bigger industry than movies for 10 years  Finnish game development industry needs 600 new employees every year.  Mail delivery is ending  Paper bills and newspapers are disappearing
  29. 29. CC 3.0 SA BY Sebastien Delorme Cultural revolution • Digital divide becomes activity divide • ICT gives active people new means to be even more active members of the society • Gives passive people new means to be even more passive • Digital culture is easily overlooked • A whole Finnish generation was in Habbo Hotel and IRC Gallery before “old media” and society caught on social media • Over 100.000 Finns were playing Internet poker before society took notice. • What cultural change is going on at the moment without us noticing it? • Technological imperative • Everybody has to be able to use ICT in order to be a member of society • ICT and digital services have to available, accessible and usable 13.9.2012 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 30
  30. 30. Memetic movements CC 2.0 Share-alike Attribution Henri Bergius
  31. 31. Revolution in 160 characters  Spontaneous self managed civil CC 2.0 Generic Vincent Diamante movements sprout in days  Viral revolution: An SMS ”Go 2 EDSA. Wear Blck” was partly responsible to Estrada’s resignation in 2001  Finnish copyright law demonstrations  Politicians and authorities do not know how to handle leaderless self organising “mobs”  “Who the f*** is organising this?”  Social media facilitated Arab Spring.  Frustrated digital vigilantes  A culture of shared values, methods and ethos instead of organisation  Attacking corporations, authorities, politicians and crime cartels  No legal protection or provision for complaint
  32. 32. No leaders to arrest:
  33. 33. CC 3.0 SA BY Heikki Valve Digitalization penetrates work ”A harvester is just a PC in a special box.” ”It is hard to find ppl with programming skills to drive harvesters.”
  34. 34. Basic- New competency requirements Program ming  Life management skills  Hot to fit work, family and life together  Competency management skills  Life long updating of competencies  Knowledge management skills  Information fatigue is a major occupational hazard in information society  What about ICT competencies?  ICT competencies should be self evident citizen skills  Even young people have trouble using computers for something else than social media and gaming
  35. 35. CC 2.0 Share alike Attribution Deryck Hodge Information society citizen skills  Basic ICT use skills  Lacking in every age group  Media reading and writing skills  Everybody can be a mass media  Journalistic principles and amateur media  Data security skills  You cannot trust even respected data security companies any more  Digital social capital  How to be civil in social media  How and where do we learn these skills?  Finland is one of the only countries in Europe where ICT is not compulsory at school 13.9.2012 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 36
  36. 36. The fun times are only beginning By 2015:  ICT goes to cloud and becomes an on-demand service  Consumer protection, data protection, legal protection  Augmented reality becomes everyday reality  Mobile devices are forerunners, next cars  Garage hackers are back  Current market leaders were once in garages, why not the next ones By 2020:  ICT evolves and becomes cheaper  3D-printing brings manufacturing to homes  NFC revolutionalises payment industry like rfid did logistics  Technological breakthroughs on other sciences  Neuroscience, bio- and genescience, nano technology, … 13.9.2012 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 37
  37. 37. E.g. ICT + cognitive science = UC Berkeley
  38. 38. Science fiction society  13.9.2012 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 39
  39. 39. U.S. Army Photo Sukupuolten välinen digikuilu? Discussion 30.9.2010 40