TREB Housing Market Analysis

1. Housing Market Charts – February 2011

2. TREB MLS® Sales
Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
12,000 2008 2009 2010 2011
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales for the current year and the previous three years. The
recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.

3. TREB MLS® New Listings
Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
25,000
2008 2009 2010 2011
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings for the current year and the previous three
years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each
month.

4. TREB MLS® Sales-to-New Listings Ratio
Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
1.10 2008 2009 2010 2011
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) for the current year and the previous
three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
When the SNLR moves higher, annual average price growth generally increases – often at a rate well above inflation.
When the SNLR moves lower, annual average price growth generally declines and can become negative.

5. TREB MLS® Average Resale Home Price
Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
$480,000 2008 2009 2010 2011
$460,000
$440,000
$420,000
$400,000
$380,000
$360,000
$340,000
$320,000
$300,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® average home price for the current year and the
previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous
years for each month.

6. TREB MLS® Sales
Monthly Time Series with Trend Line
12,000
Actual MLS® Sales
10,000
Trend (12-Month Moving Average)
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales since January 1995. The blue line shows actual sales. The brown
line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other
irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual sales must occur to change the direction of the trend.

7. TREB MLS® New Listings
Monthly Time Series with Trend Line
22,000
20,000 Actual MLS® New Listings
18,000 Trend (12-Month Moving Average)
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings since January 1995. The blue line shows actual new listings.
The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other
irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual new listings must occur to change the direction of the trend.

8. TREB MLS® Average Price
Monthly Time Series with Trend Line
475,000
Actual MLS® Average Price
425,000
Trend (12-Month Moving Average)
375,000
325,000
275,000
225,000
175,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® average price since January 1995. The blue line shows the actual average
price. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or
other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual average price must occur to change the direction of the
trend.

9. TREB MLS® Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Compared to
Average Annual Per Cent Change in Home Price
Average Price Annual Per Cent Change
1.20 25%
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio
1.00 20%
15%
(Brown Line)
0.80
(Blue Line)
10%
0.60 5%
0.40 0%
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio -5%
0.20 -10%
Average Price Annual Per Cent Change
0.00 -15%
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots the monthly sales-to-new listings ratio (blue line) with year-over-year average annual per
cent price change (brown line). When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves higher, average annual per cent change in
home prices generally trends higher. When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves lower, average annual per cent change
in home prices generally trends lower.

10. TREB Affordability Indicator
Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest,
Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics Canada
Explanation: This chart plots the share of average household income that goes toward mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and utilities
for the average priced home in the GTA subject to the following assumptions:
1. Average annual or year-to-date home price as reported by TREB
2. 20 per cent down payment
3. Average 5-year fixed mortgage rate (Statistics Canada); 25-year amortization
4. Average property tax rate reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending
5. Average utilities cost reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending and components of the Consumer Price Index
6. Average household income reported by the Census of Canada. Years in between Censuses estimated using interpolation (years up to 2005) or annual growth in average weekly earnings reported by
Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey (2006 onward).