An update heading into Iowa

1. January 2020
The 2020 Election:
An Update Heading Into Iowa

2. State of the Nation

3. The Backdrop
More Divided Than
Ever
There’s declining faith in
government, leadership, and
especially the media.
Republicans and Democrats
trust two very different sets of
media sources, and think all
others are biased.Those we
follow on social media keep us
in our “bubble.”
Deep Distrust In Institutions &
The Media
“Fake News”
Over half of Americans say it’s
hard to differentiate between
facts and misleading
information.
Most have little confidence in
social media and search
engines to stop the spread of
misinformation.
Polling shows deep divides by
generation, education, race,
urban/rural and economics.
Republicans can win elections
nationally with their base.
Democrats need to appeal to a
more diverse range of voters and
knit together various
constituencies.
Sources: NORC, n = 1,032 adults, 10/15-28/2019 (https://static.usafacts.org/public/resources/AP_NORC_Poll_2019.pdf?_ga=2.76729936.432750882.1579812736-33060052.1579812736); Gallup, n = 1,015 US adults, 1/3-16/2019
(https://news.gallup.com/poll/1597/confidence-institutions.aspx); AP (https://www.ap.org/explore/divided-america/);New York Times, 1/24/2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/24/opinion/sunday/democrats-republicans-
polarization.html?searchResultPosition=1)

4. After dipping in late-2019, President Trump’s approval has returned to inauguration
levels.29-Jan-17
28-Feb-17
31-Mar-17
30-Apr-17
31-May-17
30-Jun-17
31-Jul-17
31-Aug-17
30-Sep-17
31-Oct-17
30-Nov-17
31-Dec-17
31-Jan-18
28-Feb-18
31-Mar-18
30-Apr-18
31-May-18
30-Jun-18
31-Jul-18
31-Aug-18
30-Sep-18
31-Oct-18
30-Nov-18
31-Dec-18
31-Jan-19
28-Feb-19
31-Mar-19
30-Apr-19
31-May-19
30-Jun-19
31-Jul-19
31-Aug-19
30-Sep-19
31-Oct-19
30-Nov-19
31-Dec-19
January 2017 January 2020
47% disapprove
45% approve
53% disapprove
44% approve
Source: Gallup, 1/29/2017-1/15/2020, n=1500 Adults Daily (https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx)
Peak disapproval: 60%
after Kavanaugh/during
the 2018 midterms
Peak approval: 46%
after the release of the
Mueller Report
15-Jan-20
Approval by party
Democrats 10%
Independents 37%
Republicans 88%

5. Americans are divided on impeachment, and minds haven’t changed.
1-Sep-19
16-Sep-19
1-Oct-19
16-Oct-19
31-Oct-19
15-Nov-19
30-Nov-19
15-Dec-19
30-Dec-19
14-Jan-20
March 2019 January 2020
45% don’t support
45% support
46% don’t support
50% support
Source: FiveThirtyEight, March 1, 2019 - January 15, 2020, (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/); CNN/SSRS, n = 1,156 adults, 1/16-19/2020
(http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/01/20/rel1a.-.trump,.impeachment.pdf); Pew Research, n=12,638 adults, 1/6/20-1/19/20 ( https://www.people-press.org/2020/01/22/by-a-narrow-margin-americans-say-
senate-trial-should-result-in-trumps-removal/)
Nov. 15: Ukraine
call transcript
released
Nov. 13: House
Intelligence Cmte.
hearings begin
Dec. 4:
House Judiciary
Cmte. hearings
begin
Sept. 18:
News about
Ukraine call
breaks
Sept. 26:
Whistleblower
complaint
released
63%
say the President has
probably done things
that are illegal, either
in office or while
running for President

6.  Economic confidence is at its highest point since 2000
 GDP growth has consistently remained between 2% to 3%
 Wage growth is up to 3%, the highest it has been since 2008
 Unemployment is down to 3.5%, the lowest it has been in 50 years
Farmers have taken a hit, with agricultural exports to China cut in half since 2017
Manufacturing continues to struggle with unemployment up in swing states (Michigan and
Pennsylvania)
The economy is stable even though trade wars have had negative impacts.
Sources: Gallup Economic Confidence Index (https://news.gallup.com/poll/283940/economic-confidence-highest-point-2000.aspx);Markets Insider, 1/21/2020 (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/9-charts-comparing-
trump-economy-to-obama-bush-administrations-2019-9-1028833119#unemployment-shot-up-dramatically-during-the-financial-crisis-at-the-end-of-george-w-bush-s-and-the-start-of-barack-obama-s-terms-before-steadily-
dropping-for-most-of-the-decade-2);Markets Insider, 12/5/2019 (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-wars-tried-rescuing-manufacturing-agriculture-worse-off-now-2019-12-1028741598); Washington Post,
4/5/2019 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/04/05/trump-has-two-big-problems-pennsylvania-michigan/?arc404=true)

7. 3%
7%
17%
72%
11%
41%
37%
10%
Not sure
Getting worse
About the
same
Getting better
Republicans and Democrats have different takes on how the economy is doing.
Source: The Economist/YouGov, n = 1,500 US adults, 1/19-21/2020 (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/alq58zq5zt/econTabReport.pdf)
Feelings about the Economy
Republicans
Democrats

8. Most are confident in President Trump’s ability to handle economic policy and trade.
34%
43%
43%
43%
45%
46%
50%
53%
Work effectively with Congress
Make good decisions about health care policy
Handle an international crisis
Make wise decisions about immigration policy
Use military force wisely
Make good appointments to federal courts
Negotiate favorable trade deals
Make good decisions about economic policy
Source: Pew Research, n=12,638 adults, 1/6/20-1/19/20 (https://www.people-press.org/2020/01/22/by-a-narrow-margin-americans-say-senate-trial-should-result-in-trumps-removal/)
Confidence in PresidentTrump to…

9. The Presidential Race

10. Big implications beyond 2020
Cementing theTrump
Doctrine
PresidentTrump has appointed two
Supreme Court justices, tipping the
scales more to the right. Several
new conservative-leaning federal
judges will also shape American law
beyond the next President’s term.
The two oldest judges are also Dem
appointees, so more retirements
under PresidentTrump could
transform the bench even further.
Filling the Bench
Who Draws the
Congressional Maps?
Whoever wins control in
individual states this year will
draw congressional district
lines for the next 10 years.
If PresidentTrump wins
reelection, his controversial
policies and style become
doctrine.
His mandate could continue to
challenge or alter historically
bipartisan democratic norms
and processes.

11. Americans are focused on health care and the economy.
30%
32%
33%
39%
40%
41%
Climate change
Foreign policy
Immigration
Gun policy
The economy
Health care
Source: CNN/SSRS, n = 1,156, 1/16-19/2020 (http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/01/22/rel1b.-.2020.pdf)
Top Issues for Democrats:
Health care
Climate change
Gun policy
Top Issues for Republicans:
The economy
Gun policy
Immigration
Top Issues for Independents:
The economy
Health care
Foreign policy

12. Analysts predict another close race decided in a few key states.
Safe Democrat
Likely Democrat
Tossup
Likely Republican
Safe Republican
Source: Cook Political Report (270towin.com)
188 28 32 85 42 38 125Electoral vote counter:
Democrat: 248 Republican: 205

13. The Trump campaign’s online game is strong, and the base is enthusiastic.
OnlineTactics
 Taking geofencing and microtargeting
techniques to new heights.
 Online ad spending has been heavily
focused on list building and fundraising.
Source: New York Times, 1/29/2020 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/29/opinion/trump-digital-campaign-2020.html); Washington Post, 12/9/2019(https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/12/09/critics-say-facebooks-
powerful-ad-tools-may-imperil-democracy-politicians-love-them/). The Economist/YouGov, n – 1,500 US adults, 1/19-21/2020 (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/alq58zq5zt/econTabReport.pdf);Washington
Post-ABC News, n=1,004 US adults, 1/20-23,2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/washington-post-abc-news-poll-jan-20-23-2020/50b73242-0f99-4709-b8bc-7e0d56bfe0f3/)
93%
of those who say they’ll vote forTrump
are enthusiastic about doing so in the
general election this year.
81% (-12 deficit) of those who say
they’ll vote for the Democrat in the
general are enthusiastic about it.

14. Field of 2020 Democratic Presidential candidates is historically large.
Democrats have already witnessed a
protracted nomination fight.
They started with
28 candidates; now down to 11.

15. Regardless of nominee, any match up against President Trump is close.
President Trump:
Source: Washington Post-ABC News, n=880 registered voters, 1/20-23,2020 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/washington-post-abc-news-poll-jan-20-23-2020/50b73242-0f99-4709-b8bc-7e0d56bfe0f3/)
VP Joe Biden
50% 46%
Sen. Sanders
49%
47%
Sen. Warren
48% 48%
Mayor Pete Buttigieg
45% 48%
Sen. Klobuchar
48% 47%
Mike Bloomberg
49% 46%
Democratic nominee:
All fall within the
margin of error.

16. Several toss-ups in swing states. Democrats are up in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
VP Joe Biden Sen. Sanders Sen. WarrenState
Arizona Tie Trump +1 Trump +2 Trump +3 Not asked
Florida Biden +2 Sanders +6 Warren +2 Tie Not asked
Wisconsin Biden +4 Sanders +1 Trump +3 Trump +2 Not asked
Pennsylvania Biden +9 Sanders +5 Warren +5 Not asked Not asked
Michigan Biden +6 Sanders +5 Warren +3 Buttigieg +4 Bloomberg +7
Mayor Pete
Buttigieg
Source: Public Policy Polling, n = 706 Arizona voters, 1/2-4/2020 (https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ArizonaJanuary2020.pdf); FAU, n = 1,285 Florida voters, 1/9-12/2020
(https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2020/biden-widening-lead-in-florida-where-trunp-has-fallen-behind.php); Marquette Law Poll, n = 800 Wisconsin
adults, 1/8-12/2020 (https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/MLSP57Toplines.pdf); Muhlenberg College, n = 410, 11/4-9/2019
(https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/academics/polisci/PA_PresElec_Fall2019__Report_Revised.pdf);EPIC-MRA, n = 600 likely Michigan voters, 1/9-12/2020
(https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/01/15/mike-bloomberg-other-democrats-lead-donald-trump-michigan-poll/4469175002/)
Mike Bloomberg

17. The Democratic Primary

18. Biden has maintained his lead nationally. Sanders’ rise is getting a lot of attention.
Bloomberg is gaining on the outside.
33%
40%
35%
32%
30%
28%
32%
31%
30%
26%
27%
29%
27%
26%
28% 28% 28%
27%
28%
19%
16%
17%
16%
17%
15%
16%
16%
18% 17% 14%
16%
17%
18%
16%
19% 19% 19%
23%
8% 7%
6%
8%
6%
5%
6%
5%
4%
5%
6%
5%
8% 8%
11%
9%
8%
7% 7%
8% 8%
9%
11%
13%
15% 15%
17% 18% 17%
26%
23%
21% 21%
14%
16%
15% 16% 15%
1% 1%
2%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2%
3% 4% 3% 4%
3%
5% 5%
7%
8%
Rolling Monthly Polling Average Nationwide
Pete Buttigieg
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
ElizabethWarren Michael
Bloomberg
Amy Klobuchar
Source: RealClearPolitics, 5/1-1/28/2020 (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html)

19. Although Sanders’ supporters have been consistently passionate, Biden is seen as the
unifier.
Source: CNN/SRSS, n = 1,156, 1/16-19/2020 (https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/01/22/rel1b.-.2020.pdf)
What the Democratic voters say
14%
15%
24%
29%
34%
38%
Amy Klobuchar
Michael Bloomberg
Pete Buttigieg
Elizabeth Warren
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders -1
-9
-12
-3
n/a
n/a
Enthusiasm Change from Oct.
Biden:
 Best chance to beatTrump
 Will unite the country
 Will unite the party
 Agrees with us on issues that matter
 Better understands our problems
Sanders:
57% say its more important for the party to
nominate a candidate with a strong chance of
beatingTrump.

20. Sanders leads Democrats in fundraising.
$46m
$35m
$21m $25m $23m
$17m
$11m $3m
DonaldTrump
BernieSanders
ElizabethWarren
PeteButtigieg
JoeBiden
AndrewYang
AmyKlobuchar
TulsiGabbard
Cycle total
Q4 fundraising
% change from Q3
Source: Yahoo Finance, 1/3/2020 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/andrew-yangs-65-fundraising-surge-tops-democratic-candidates-in-q-4-220201691.html?guccounter=1); Axios, 1/2/2020
(https://www.axios.com/trump-fundraising-4th-quarter-2019-ea9e6f65-1d6b-4bb8-8ec8-dca93ea0fe3d.html)
Displaying amounts in millions.
Only showing those who have reported Q4
fundraising as of January 31, 2020.
$71m $76m
$60m
$32m $10m$25m
-14%
+65%
+36%
+45%
$96m
$144m
+12%
+29%
+138%
+13%
This doesn’t factor Bloomberg’s self-funded campaign.

21. Newspaper Location Endorsed
National ElizabethWarren and Amy Klobuchar
Des Moines, IA ElizabethWarren
Davenport, IA Amy Klobuchar
Sioux City, IA Joe Biden
Storm Lake, IA ElizabethWarren
Manchester, NH Amy Klobuchar
Keene, NH Amy Klobuchar
Endorsements in early states favor Warren and Klobuchar.

22. A Closer Look At Iowa

23. What you need to know about the Iowa Caucus
Date: Monday, February 3
Things to keep in mind: Candidates who do not receive at least 15% during the first
expression of support will not be viable at that precinct. Supporters of those receiving less than
15% will realign to a viable candidate or can join with other non-viable groups to reach 15%.
Number of delegates: 49 (41 pledged, 8 super)
Registration details: Participants must be registered with the party they are caucusing.
Iowans can register and change party registration at their caucus precinct until the caucus
begins.
Chance for record turnout: Recent Iowa polling shows a close race, so turnout will be key
– especially for candidates like Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Source: Monmouth University, n – 405 likely Iowa Democratic voters, 1/9-12/2020 (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ia_011320.pdf/); 270 to win (https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/iowa-caucus); Morning Consult, n =
5,000, December 2019 (https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/)

24. 19%
15%
10% 11%
6%
24%
20%
16% 15%
10%
30%
25%
18%
19%
13%
Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Pete Buttigieg Elizabeth Warren Amy Klobuchar
Recent Iowa polling has been volatile, but more competitive. It’s still anyone’s race.
Lowest polling
Highest polling
Average polling
Source: Real Clear Politics Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus averages, 1/20-27/2020 (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html)
Latest Iowa Polling – January 20-27, 2020

25. A look ahead to February: Sanders and Biden ahead.
STATE LATEST POLLING RATING
New Hampshire
Sanders: 29%
Biden: 22%
Warren: 16%
Buttigieg: 10%
Lean Sanders
Nevada
Biden: 19% / Sanders: 18%
Warren: 11%
Buttigieg: 8%
Toss-up
South Carolina
Biden: 36%
Steyer: 15%
Sanders: 14%
Warren: 10%
Biden
Source: Emerson, n = 407 likely New Hampshire Democratic voters, 1/23-26/2020 (https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/01/27/bernie-sanders-surges-to-top-in-latest-poll/); Suffolk University, n = 500 Nevada Democratic caucus-goers, 1/8-11/2020
(https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2020/1_14_2020_marginals_pdftxt.pdf); Fox News, n – 808 South Carolina Democratic primary voters, 1/5-8/2020 (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-
news-poll-january-5-8-2020)

26. Keep in Mind…
Iowa is first, but it doesn’t reflect the entirety of the Democratic party
(neither does New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina).
SuperTuesday is only one month away.

27. What to Watch
 Three tickets out of Iowa, but who will be 1, 2, and 3?
 Biden and Sanders are the clear front-runners and need to meet those expectations. Can Sanders sustain
his momentum? Has the impeachment narrative hurt Biden’s chances? If either finish below second,
pundits and top Democrats will signal trouble.
 Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar will be looking to break through and propel their campaign through
February. Who will exceed expectations and become the story of the night?
 Bloomberg’s rise. Bloomberg’s poll numbers are rising but he’s new to the ballot, skipping the early states,
and focusing on SuperTuesday.
 Tweeter-in-Chief. What will PresidentTrump have to say about the results and the candidates? It’s anyone’s
guess.

28. Upcoming calendar
Date Event
Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses
Feb. 7 Debate in Manchester, NH (ABC News, WMUR, andApple News)
Feb. 11 New Hampshire primary
Feb. 19 Debate in LasVegas, NV (NBC News, MSNBC, andThe Nevada Independent)
Feb. 22 Nevada caucuses (Democrats only)
Feb. 25 Debate in Charleston, SC (CBS News, the Congressional Black Caucus Institute, andTwitter)
Feb. 29 South Carolina primary (Democrats only)
March 3 SuperTuesday (Alabama, California, Massachusetts, N. Carolina,Oklahoma,Tennessee,Texas,Vermont,Virginia)
July 13-16 Democratic convention in Milwaukee, WI
Aug. 24-27 Republican convention in Charlotte, NC
Nov. 3 Election Day

29. GPG Research & Insight
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clients’ messaging and strategy.
For more information about this presentation
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contact:
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