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値はダメなのか?
「 値禁止令」を読む
原啓介
続わかパタ読書会
自己紹介
I 原啓介 はら けいすけ
I
I
I 経歴など
I 元、数学者 某私立 大学教授 確率論
I 現、ニュース推薦系零細 企業の
I 他に翻訳など 「世界を変えた手紙」 デブリン著 岩波書店
が 値禁止を宣言!
「今から、 は 仮説検定 を禁止する」 !
値を使っている論文は自動的に却下?
I いいえ。しかし出版にあたって の痕跡 有意性
に関する 値、 値、 値、 は全て消してもらう。
信頼区間やベイズ推定など他の統計的推測について
はどうか?
I 信頼区間は禁止。ベイズ推定は禁止しないが、要求もし
ない。
に関して各推定の問題点
I の問題点 帰無仮説が与えられての実現の確率と、
実現を与えられての帰無仮説の確率を行き来している
I 信頼区間の問題点 区間は「その区間に真値がある確率
が 」の意味ではない。 と同じ問題
I
I ベイズ推定の問題点 ラプラスの仮定 一様な事前確率 の
問題
要求される統計的推測の手続は何かあるか?
I 現状では、ない。しかし、強い記述的統計を求む。
I 可能な場合には、頻度や分布のデータを示してほしい。より
多いサンプルサイズも求む。
「宣言」の結び
I これで投稿論文の質が落ちるとは思っていない
I があまりに簡単にクリアできることが問題
I の問題点と呪縛から開放されて、より良い論文になる
今日のところの結論
I は統計学の基本が分かっていない馬鹿ではない
I 多分「ソフトな科学」での統計的推測は悩ましい
I 「 値禁止令」はなかなか味わい深い文章
I この問題についてさらに理解を深めたい人のための参考文献
I
I

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