17 Overvalued and Undervalued Players. An early look at undervalued and overvalued players for the 2014 season. Presentation brought to you by Draft Sharks. http://www.draftsharks.com Written by Jared Smola Presented by Kelsey Ptucha and Draftsharks

1. FANTASY
FOOTBALL 2014:
17 OVERVALUED &
UNDERVALUED
PLAYERS
By Jared Smola

2. Early Look at Undervalued and Overvalued Players
The best part about finalizing our player rankings is seeing where we stand on guys vs. the rest
of the fantasy world. Who do we like more than the pack? Who are we lower on? That’s what
ultimately determines the players who will and won’t be on Draft Sharks squads.
But let’s take an early look at guys who are being undervalued and overvalued in early fantasy
football drafts. We’re using our PPR rankings and ADP data from public drafts on
MyFantasyLeague.com.

3. UNDERVALUED PLAYERS

4. UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:
Robert Griffin, QB, Redskins
DS Rank: QB4
ADP Rank: QB9
It’s no surprise that people are down on RG3 after his ugly 2013
campaign. He ranked 19th in passing yards, tossed just 16 TDs
vs. 12 INTs and didn’t score a single rushing TD.
Still, he ranked 12th among QBs in fantasy points per game.
Consider that his floor in 2014. His ceiling extends much higher.
Griffin was brilliant as a 2012 rookie, finishing 5th in points per
game. Expect him to return to that level this season. Reports on
RG3’s health have been positive all offseason. He added WR
DeSean Jackson to his arsenal. And he gets a HC that made
Andy Dalton a top 3 fantasy QB last year.
Griffin is your top QB target in fantasy drafts this summer.

5. UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:
Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals
DS Rank: QB18
ADP Rank: QB23
Palmer is going undrafted in a lot of leagues right now. We
like him as a valuable half of a QB by committee.
He got off to a slow start last year, not surprising considering
he was with a new team learning a new offense. But over his
final 8 games, Palmer posted top 12 fantasy QB numbers.
With another year in HC Bruce Arians’ offense -- plus
continued growth from WR Michael Floyd and RB Andre
Ellington -- Palmer could be even better in 2014. He’s 1 of
the best reasons to wait on a QB in 2014 fantasy drafts.

6. UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:
Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants
DS Rank: RB15
ADP Rank: RB27
The knocks against Jennings are that he’s never been a lead back
for an entire season and that he’s 29. But he’s certainly looked
good in spurts, with career averages of 4.3 yards per carry and 7.7
yards per catch. And his 484 NFL touches mean he’s a “young
29.”
The Giants signed Jennings to be their feature back. His ball
security and pass-protection skills will endear him to HC Tom
Coughlin.
Neither David Wilson nor rookie Andre Williams is a serious threat
to Jennings’ starting job this season. We have him projected for
264 total touches -- and that might be conservative.
Jennings looks like a weekly RB2 that you can get for a RB3 price.

7. UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:
Joique Bell, RB, Lions
DS Rank: RB18
ADP Rank: RB23
Bell finished 14th among RBs in PPR scoring last year. His
role is expected to grow under new OC Joe Lombardi this
season. Yet Bell is the 23th RB off the board in early fantasy
drafts.
We’ll see if his ADP climbs this summer. But for now, he
looks like a prime RB2 target if you go with a WR-heavy start.

8. UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:
Dexter McCluster, RB, Titans
DS Rank: RB42
ADP Rank: RB68
There are very few true “sleepers” in our FF-crazed world
nowadays. But McCluster qualifies.
The new Titan is off the radar, going undrafted in most
leagues. But he’s capable of emerging as a RB3 or flex for
your PPR team.
Tennessee clearly wanted McCluster, snagging him on the
very 1st day of free agency. New HC Ken Whisenhunt just
got a big season out of Danny Woodhead in San Diego and
could have similar plans for McCluster.
We’ll be keeping a close eye on the Titans’ backfield all
summer. But snagging McCluster with 1 of your last few
picks is a no-risk move.

9. UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:
Kendall Wright, WR, Titans
DS Rank: WR18
ADP Rank: WR28
Wright finished 20th among WRs in PPR scoring last year,
despite scoring just twice on 94 catches. Give him even 5
TDs -- still a conservative number on 94 grabs -- and he
would have climbed to 18th.
That’s where we have Wright in our 2014 rankings. His
numbers don’t even need to grow beyond his 2013
production to get there. He just needs a little more TD luck.
At his current ADP, Wright is an ideal WR3 target.

10. UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:
Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins
DS Rank: WR21
ADP Rank: WR32
Not much went right for Wallace last year. He was stuck in
OC Mike Sherman’s vanilla offense and could never quite get
on the same page as QB Ryan Tannehill.
Still, Wallace finished 27th at his position in PPR fantasy
leagues. Consider that his floor in 2014, making him a no-
risk pick at WR32.
And Wallace’s ceiling extends much higher. He’ll be in a
much more creative offense under new OC Bill Lazor and has
another offseason to work with Tannehill.

11. UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:
Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars
DS Rank: WR29
ADP Rank: WR39
We’re not clamoring for Shorts. He’s not an elite talent and
has a couple rookie WRs to contend with this season. Plus,
Jacksonville wants to deploy a run-heavy offense.
But Shorts should remain the top option in the passing game.
He’s a good bet for WR3 value based on his target total
alone. That makes him a fine value pick at his current 9th-
round ADP.

12. UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:
Kenny Stills, WR, Saints
DS Rank: WR39
ADP Rank: WR51
We broke down Stills’ value in last week’s podcast. Simply
put, he’s a talented receiver set to see an increased role in an
explosive passing game.
Stills has been undervalued all offseason. His ADP has
dropped even further since New Orleans added rookie
Brandin Cooks. We’ll see what Cooks’ role looks like this
summer, but there’s room for both him and Stills to see 80+
targets.

13. UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:
Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears
DS Rank: TE7
ADP Rank: TE14
The Bears are a relatively easy offense to evaluate because
very little has changed from last year. They return the same
core personnel and will have had another offseason in HC
Marc Trestman’s offense.
There’s little reason to expect a step back from their skill-
position guys. That includes Bennett, who finished 10th
among TEs in PPR scoring last year. We like his chances of
finishing at least that high in 2014. He’s a prime target if you
wait on your TE.

14. UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:
Delanie Walker, TE, Titans
DS Rank: TE13
ADP Rank: TE18
Walker quietly finished as a top 12 TE in PPR scoring last
year. More importantly, only 6 TEs scored more points than
Walker over the season’s final 8 games.
Now he gets a coaching staff loaded with TE expertise. That
includes HC Ken Whisenhunt, who even compared Walker to
Antonio Gates.
That’s obviously lofty, but Walker certainly looks capable of
another low-end TE1 finish. He’s a nice half of a TE-by-
committee that can be had in the 12th or 13th round of drafts.

15. UNDERVALUED PLAYERS:
Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jaguars
DS Rank: TE18
ADP Rank: TE41
Yeah, it’s tough to get excited about Lewis. He’s playing on a
run-first offense with QB issues. And he’s not an elite talent.
But Lewis could finish 2nd on the Jaguars in targets this year.
He’s still only 30 and closed last season with TDs in 4 of his
final 5 games.
Lewis isn’t even getting drafted in most leagues. He’s at
least worth considering with 1 of your last few picks as a
matchup starter.

16. OVERVALUED PLAYERS

17. OVERVALUED PLAYERS:
Tom Brady, QB, Patriots
DS Rank: QB14
ADP Rank: QB10
We don’t dislike Brady as a low-end QB1 or half of a QB by
committee. He could post a top 10 season if TE Rob
Gronkowski stays healthy and New England’s young WRs
step up.
The issue is that Brady is coming off the board in the 8th
round. You can get Tony Romo a round later; Jay Cutler a
couple of rounds later. That’s much better value than Brady
in the 8th. You’d even get better bang for your buck by pairing
2 of Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill, Philip Rivers and Carson
Palmer in Rounds 12+.

18. OVERVALUED PLAYERS:
Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers
DS Rank: RB28
ADP Rank: RB19
Mathews was a bum this time last year, an underachiever who
couldn’t stay healthy.
A 16-game, 1,200-yard season later and everyone is back on
the bandwagon. Mathews is coming off the board as a solid
RB2 in PPR drafts. But even last season, which might go
down as a career year, he finished 17th.
Mathews will remain the lead back in a run-first offense this
season. But free-agent addition Donald Brown figures to steal
a few carries per game. Danny Woodhead will continue to see
the majority of the pass-catching work. And Mathews’
durability concerns remain.
Undervalued last summer, Mathews looks overvalued this time
around.

19. OVERVALUED PLAYERS:
Ben Tate, RB, Browns
DS Rank: RB34
ADP Rank: RB20
It’s easy to see the upside with Tate. He’ll get the 1st crack
at the lead job in a run-heavy offense piloted by OC Kyle
Shanahan, who has produced plenty of big RB seasons.
But Tate has had trouble staying healthy throughout his
career. He’s already been “nicked-up” this spring. And he
has a couple of talented rookies to fend off in Terrance West
and Isaiah Crowell.
Tate could climb into our top 25 with a strong August. But for
now, we’re not willing to bet on him as a RB2.

20. OVERVALUED PLAYERS:
Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers
DS Rank: WR16
ADP Rank: WR11
Allen turned in one of the best rookie seasons by a WR in
recent memory last year. But the history of guys like that
improving in Year 2 isn’t promising.
That’s what early drafters are banking on, though. Allen is
coming off the board as WR11 after finishing 18th in PPR
scoring last year.
We see Allen as more of a mid-range WR2 than low-end
WR1. Targets won’t be an issue, but he’ll face increased
defensive attention this season. And San Diego will continue
to lean toward the run after having success with that style of
attack during the 2nd half of the season. Note that Allen
ranked just 22nd in catches and 21st in yards among WRs
over his final 8 games.

21. OVERVALUED PLAYERS:
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings
DS Rank: WR31
ADP Rank: WR14
Could Patterson finish as a top 15 WR this season? Sure.
But it’ll take major progress from the raw rookie receiver we
saw last season. And he’ll need better QB play.
At Patterson’s current ADP, you’re basically paying for his
ceiling. He’s a long shot to finish any higher in the WR
rankings and, thus, to return good draft-day value.
If you’re looking WR in the 4th round – where Patterson is
going – we’d much rather take safer guys with similar or
greater upside such as Victor Cruz, Michael Crabtree or
Michael Floyd.

22. OVERVALUED PLAYERS:
Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers
DS Rank: TE8
ADP Rank: TE5
Calling Davis’ 52-catch, 13-TD 2013 season fluky might be a
bit harsh. But it’s fair to say that TD rate is unsustainable.
Davis had scored on 11.6% of his catches heading into 2013.
That rate would have given him just 6 TDs last year. That’s a
good starting point for his 2014 projection.
It’s also worth noting that Davis’ averages dropped by 1.4
catches and 28 yards after WR Michael Crabtree returned to
the lineup last year.
It all makes him a prime candidate to be overdrafted this
summer. He’s more mid-range starter than elite fantasy
option.

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