4. Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit
the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-
nCoV) in vitro
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-
0?fbclid=IwAR3c5iy9h65X1cnkrL6i6fJcWwi0ygN1LtI67SkcgREM4DyxxAcPauRuf5w
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0.pdf
In Vitro(インビトロ。臨床データでない)ではあるが、コロナウイルスに対する
レムデシビルとクロロキンの効果を示唆するデータがあるそう。
結構個人的におもしろいのが、この2つ以外に阻害作用を示す薬剤があり、阻害と毒性
がそれぞれ違っていること
リバビリン、ファビピラビル、ナファモスタット、ペンシクロビルなど。
用量に依存して阻害率も毒性も上がっていく印象。上記の2剤は毒性が一気に上がっていくグラフ
(→)ではなさそう?なので、期待がされているのではと感じた。
5. Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult
inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective
cohort study
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673620305663
2019年12月以降、中国・武漢ではCOVID-19アウトブレイクが発生。疫学的・
臨床的特徴は報告されているが、死亡率の危険因子などは記述が無かったこと
を踏まえ、リアルワールドデータ(簡単に言うと病院カルテなどの、現場にあ
るデータのこと)を用いた多施設後ろ向き研究。
2020 年 1 月 31 日までに退院または死亡した病院等で COVID-19 の成人患者を
対象。臨床データ,治療データ,臨床検査データを抽出し,生存者と非生存者
の間で比較。
191 名の患者が含まれ、137 名が退院し、54 名が死亡。91人の患者が併存疾患
を有しており、高血圧が最も多く、次いで糖尿病、冠動脈性心疾患。
他にもいくつか記述がされていたが、高齢であることと、合併症が死亡の危険
因子であると考えてもよさそうだと思われた。
6. Effect of emergency declaration for the COVID
−19 outbreak in Tokyo, Japan in the first two
weeks
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20067447v2.full.pdf
安倍首相が2020年4月7日にCOVID-19発生抑制のための緊急事態を宣言した。
日本国民のほぼ半数に対して、個人的な接触を7~8割減らすよう求めた。本研
究では、その非常事態宣言の効果を推定。
1月14日~4月21日の東京都内の症状のある患者のデータに、SIRモデルを適用。
4つの期間に分けて再現数を推定した。
自主休校・休校前のR0、自主休校・休校中のRv、自主休校・休校後のRa、緊急
事態宣言後のReの4つの期間で再生産数を推定。
その結果、R0は1.267、Rvは2.360、Raは2.307、Reは0.462であった。
だれかSIRモデルの解説をおねがいします。
下記動画がSIRモデルの説明として一般向けにされています。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQ7oV9wtncI
7. Estimation of true number of COVID-19 infected
people in Japan using LINE questionnaire
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066100v1.full.pdf
厚生労働省/ LINE株式会社が3月31日から4月1日に実施されたアンケート結果の検討。
COVID-19感染患者数を推定した報告。
LINE全国調査から推定される感染者数は,2020年4月1日で約2万人。
As the change of patient number from ac-cumulated to non-accumulated downwards, the
estimation for the true number of the infected, adding consideration of half-life, was 23,783・・
都道府県別のアンケート結果は次のとおり。
9. Mental Health Status of the General Population
during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A CrossSectional
National Survey in Japan
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.28.20082453v1.full.pdf
こんな感じ。
This study is to examine the mental health of the Japanese general population.
Results from logistic regression analyses showed that the mental health of young
and middle-aged individuals was significantly worse than that of older individuals
during the pandemic.There was also some indication that individuals who were not
currently working were significantly more likely to report a high level of anxiety
and depressive symptoms. Part-time and temporary contract-based workers were
also more likely to suffer from anxiety disorder.
ざっくりいうと雇用に不安がある人は、コロナでとても不安を感じている調査
結果があるという内容
10. Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy,
and Mortality in Covid-19
https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2007621?articleTools=true
読んでいけばわかるが、以下の因子がコロナウイルス感染での悪化の因子に成
り得ると思われた。
65歳以上
男性(この報告では免疫的に女性の方が有利みたいな記述がありますね。
Women have stronger innate and adaptive immunity and greater resistance to viral
infections than men.
まじ?
12. Recent progress and challenges in drug development
against COVID-19 coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7166307/
Describes the common symptoms of COVID-19, factors contributing to its severity,
and drugs in development.
Adults over middle age are more susceptible. It has been reported that the
mortality rate from complications increases with age. And more people who have
ischemic heart disease, diabetes, cancer, atrial fibrillation and stroke, are
susceptible.
In terms of gender, males tend to be more likely to test positive. In the case of
men, however, there are more smokers than women, so we don't know for sure if
gender is a factor.
In terms of drug development, it is noted that other than remdesivir, it is also
being developed.
13. Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of
COVID-19
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2762028
Report on the enrollment of patients with fever and respiratory symptoms and
asymptomatic familial clusters admitted in Chinese hospitals in January 2020.
The new coronavirus has been demonstrated to infect person-to-person, but
infection from asymptomatic carriers with normal chest findings has not been
reported. In contrast, asymptomatic carriers (asymptomatic carriers)
reported that they may have transmitted the disease to their families.
Of a cluster of six patients, five were infected and one was a presumptive
asymptomatic carrier (no symptoms), in this report. All of the infected
patients appeared to have fibrosis or other symptoms on chest CT.
Symptomatic patients had elevated CRP and fluctuating lymphocyte counts.
14. Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult
inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective
cohort study
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673620305663
A COVID-19 outbreak occured in Wuhan, China after December 2019. A
multicenter, backward-looking study using real-world data based on the fact
that epidemiological and clinical characteristics have been reported, but risk
factors for mortality have not been described.
Adult patients with COVID-19 in hospitals and other institutions who are
discharged or die by January 31, 2020. Clinical, treatment, and laboratory
data were extracted and compared between survivors and non-survivors.
191 patients were included, 137 were discharged and 54 died; 91 patients had
comorbidities, the most common is hypertension, followed by diabetes and
coronary heart disease.