This document discusses potential trends in LED luminaires over the next 5-10 years. It predicts that luminaires will be considered long-term building assets, though some components will eventually break. Luminaires will contain identification data to enable repairs. Heat transfer and lumen depreciation will be more accurately characterized. New luminaire designs focusing on task lighting and illuminating surfaces rather than ambient lighting entire spaces will emerge, taking innovative minimalist forms. Sustainability and user needs will increasingly drive lighting design.
Generative AI for Technical Writer or Information Developers
Session 4B - Innovation - Presented by Tom Ward, Finelite
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2. Observations on Potential TrendsObservations on Potential Trends
Tom Ward
Finelite, Inc.
Observations on Potential TrendsObservations on Potential Trends
Tom Ward
Finelite, Inc.
9. LED Luminaire TrendsLED Luminaire TrendsLED Luminaire TrendsLED Luminaire Trends
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• Luminaires will be considered fixed building assets that
last for decades.
• Reality will intervene; in the future some parts will break.
• Luminaires will contain descriptive data that allows
identification
of all components.
• Non-serviceable luminaires will not exist.
10. The Missing And Weak LinkThe Missing And Weak LinkThe Missing And Weak LinkThe Missing And Weak Link
The DriverThe Driver
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11. Situation 1 170,000hrs
Situation 2 40,000hrs
Predictive Data Really ExistsPredictive Data Really ExistsPredictive Data Really ExistsPredictive Data Really Exists
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12. LED Luminaire TrendLED Luminaire TrendLED Luminaire TrendLED Luminaire Trend
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he driver will be stated on tech sheets.
engineers will be embraced
icate plenum temperatures).
djust “lifetime” statements based on
erating environment will exist.
hat not all plenums are at 77ºF.
13. Courtesy: U.S. Department of Energy
Heat Transfer Is ComplexHeat Transfer Is ComplexHeat Transfer Is ComplexHeat Transfer Is Complex
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14. 1 to 5-watts concentrated on
one LED die = heat sink
0.1 to 0.3 watts on a wide
spread matrix = no heat sink
Impacts: Luminaire design, service,
lumen maintenance
Impacts: Luminaire design,
service, lumen maintenance
Heat Is A Spectrum Of ChoicesHeat Is A Spectrum Of ChoicesHeat Is A Spectrum Of ChoicesHeat Is A Spectrum Of Choices
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16. End of Life Mode
Light Sources
The Rules Were ChangedThe Rules Were ChangedThe Rules Were ChangedThe Rules Were Changed
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17. L90
10%100%
Lifetime Is Also A Spectrum Of ChoiceLifetime Is Also A Spectrum Of ChoiceLifetime Is Also A Spectrum Of ChoiceLifetime Is Also A Spectrum Of Choice
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18. L80
Not All Choices Are EqualNot All Choices Are EqualNot All Choices Are EqualNot All Choices Are Equal
18
20%100%
19. L70
Some Choices Are Dim-to-DullSome Choices Are Dim-to-DullSome Choices Are Dim-to-DullSome Choices Are Dim-to-Dull
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30%100%
20. So just how long is 50,000 hours?
Trash Is Not Your Problem?Trash Is Not Your Problem?Trash Is Not Your Problem?Trash Is Not Your Problem?
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21. LED Luminaire TrendsLED Luminaire TrendsLED Luminaire TrendsLED Luminaire Trends
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• Mid-power LEDs will be the standard for general interior illumination.
• Source lumen depreciation will be rated similar to incumbent
fluorescent sources, i.e. 90-95% lumen depreciation.
• Owners will be informed of what they are actually getting.
• Acceptance that 50,000 hours is less than 6 years.
• Recognition that L90-100,000 hours is 3x L70-50,000 hours.
22. Church Of The Almighty Lumen Per WattChurch Of The Almighty Lumen Per WattChurch Of The Almighty Lumen Per WattChurch Of The Almighty Lumen Per Watt
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23. Lumens are not directionalLumens
Without Direction You Can Go AnywhereWithout Direction You Can Go AnywhereWithout Direction You Can Go AnywhereWithout Direction You Can Go Anywhere
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24. Return Of A Grievous ProblemReturn Of A Grievous ProblemReturn Of A Grievous ProblemReturn Of A Grievous Problem
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25. VDT viewing significance normal and
high:
• For types I and II monitors:
≤1500 cd/m2
• For type III monitors:
≤ 500 cd/m2
• At 65º and above.
Veiling Reflection: Direct ComponentVeiling Reflection: Direct Component
Average Initial Luminaire Luminance OptionAverage Initial Luminaire Luminance Option
Veiling Reflection: Direct ComponentVeiling Reflection: Direct Component
Average Initial Luminaire Luminance OptionAverage Initial Luminaire Luminance Option
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26. Type I - Matte Type II – Semi-specular Type III – Specular
Positive
Contrast
Negative
Contrast
Know Your Client's MonitorKnow Your Client's MonitorKnow Your Client's MonitorKnow Your Client's Monitor
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27. Task: respond to user age
Vertical: provide visual interest
Ambient: provide uniform coverage
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Area Of CoverageArea Of Coverage
Task-Vertical-AmbientTask-Vertical-Ambient
Area Of CoverageArea Of Coverage
Task-Vertical-AmbientTask-Vertical-Ambient
28. LED Luminaire TrendsLED Luminaire TrendsLED Luminaire TrendsLED Luminaire Trends
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• Specular monitors will create need for less brightness on surfaces,
and less intensity from luminaires.
• Lumens per watt will degraded in importance to only describe
general service lamps, such as A lamps.
• Sustainable design will increase the use of task lighting, increase
attention to how vertical surfaces are illuminated and decrease the
quantity and intensity of ambient luminaires.
• Artificial ceiling grids, and light boxes to fill them, will be less
common. Luminaires will follow the trend.
32. LED Luminaire TrendsLED Luminaire TrendsLED Luminaire TrendsLED Luminaire Trends
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• The next 5-10 years will see the greatest creativity in luminaire design.
• New form factors, made possible by LED board designs, will allow
the development of new fixture forms.
• This will merge with best practice that spends less material and
energy on lighting interior air.
• Luminaires will be smaller in scale, and will focus on lighting surfaces.
When that lighting fixture
Is placed into that building,
It is possible to project
That the lighting fixture will last
A long, long time
It may very well be expected
That the luminaire will last
As long as the facility lasts.
In our world, some parts will fail before other parts.
Even if you drive the LED at a lower power to get a lower temperature, as noted in the opening, in the Real World, something might break sometime.
What is the client going to do about it?
Shocking, but true, some products are not built to be serviced in the field. But lets imagine a world where no one would ever specify a throw-away fixture. implies the potential for failure at any point, say at 1,000 hours, or 4,000, or 6,000. Sometimes things just break.
And the driver needs to be accessible from inside the fixture as well.
You would think the National Electric Code would require this, wouldn't’t you?
But they don’t, it is on the back of the specifier to investigate.
And it is up to the owner to figure out what part needs to be serviced, and how to get the part, because remember they cant call Their Wholesale Electrical Supplier to get the answer.
Even when the led fixture manufacture has the ability and commitment to accomplish this, the end-user must have a straight-forward way to identify the exact board in the existing fixture.
Some use bar codes (bring your own scanner), some use labels, just make sure that something was used!
If these cannot be easily and
Successfully addressed,
Are we ready to specify a whole generation of fixtures that
End up here?
Data indicates LED temp at 55 degree, driver case temperature at 33 degree,
driver life at 170K hr.
This is actually the case temperature as measured by the manufacture of the driver.
But what happens if the LED juncture temperature is higher?
Well, the only thing
LED temp at 85 degree, driver case temp at??
driver life at ???
Don’t be surprised if the answer is 40K hr.
The biggest elephant in the room is driver life, and it is a direct correlation to Heat, and the Heat is coming from the LED, and the place deep within the LED where this heat is generated is called what?
Yes!
The Juncture
Yes, like the setting sun.
But unlike the sun, which setting is really
The constant and predictable revolution of
Our planet,
The LED sunset is directly related to how hot things
Get in that energy exchange juncture.
In fact, to even predict the fade rate over time,
The industry established a test process so that the juncture
Temperature could be established.
And, as you now know,
The hotter it gets in there,
The faster that little LED is going towards the sunset.
Nothing really new under the sun
In the beginning,
There was fire.
And fire was heat,
And the heat was good.
Except that, the fire burned out the heat,
And the light was gone.
Our first experience that light and heat have a relationship over time.
Gas Is just another kind of fire.
The brighter you burn it,
The hotter it gets, the quicker the fuel runs out.
End of light!
Incandescent light is metal glowing
As it is heated through resistance of an electrical flow of energy
Eventually, the metal looses enough atoms
Through burning up, that the filament breaks.
Fluorescent uses two sources to emit light.
A high voltage arc stream is sent from one end of the tube
To the other end.
That excites a small amount of mercury to emit electrons
Which in turn strike the phosphorescent coating that is on the inside of the tube,
And light is emitted.
But, like the incandescent filament,
When the metal tips at the end of the tube
Looses too much material, they fail.
Once again, the light is gone.
But,
LED’s exhibit a different path.
An exchange of electrons flows from a positively charged material
To a negatively charged material.
In the process of the electron exchange, a particle of light, a photon,
Is emitted.
Each of these sources exhibit the end of their life in different ways.
Fire, of course, burns out
The question is, how long will the light source last?
Yes, you can double the previous numbers, but remember, the context is this: what is the anticipated light loss at 100,000 hours?
As a unit of data, lumens are a relative term.
That is, you can compare how many lumens one source creates, to the lumen package of a second source.
But lumens don’t tell you lemons about light coming from a luminaire.
No discussion of lighting quality makes any sense without the context of the task.
This applies to buying groceries, raking leaves, and anything else you can think of.
So it is mission critical to consider the task which uses a monitor for information display.
Computers and monitors, what else?
To have an informed discussion with your client, you need to know what kind of monitor they expect to use.
What are the differences?
The International Standards Organization, aligned with the Canadian Standards Authority, or as we more popularly know them, ISO-CSA, have established three broad metrics for monitor screen reflective characteristics, and two definitions of screen contrast.
You need to know this information:
Imatte
IIsemi-diffuse
IIIspecular
And contrast,
Positivelight background
Negativedarker background
Why is this important to the lighting community?
Because of how light impacts the “see-ability” of the information on the task surface, that is, the screen surface.