Dr. Hill Walker, Co-Director at the University of Oregon Institute on Violence and Destructive Behavior, at the 2011 Local Public Safety Coordinating Council of Multnomah County's "What Works" conference, "Juvenile Justice Grounded in Youth Development" December 9, 2011, Portland, OR. Audio concludes at slide #24.

1. Predicting and Preventing Future
Involvement in the
Criminal Justice System
Hill M. Walker, Ph.D.
Institute on Violence and Destructive Behavior
University of Oregon
2011 Annual “What Works” Conference:
Juvenile Justice Grounded in Youth Development
Friday, December 9, 2011
Oregon Convention Center
Portland, Oregon

2. List of Handout Pages and Articles (1)
Handouts
• Facts on Antisocial Behavior and
• Additional Resources on Antisocial Behavior in Children and Youth
• Fact Sheet: School Safety and Violence Prevention
• Risk Factors for Adolescent Delinquency and Predictors of Adolescent Violence
• Tips for Parents on Effective Family Management Techniques
• OJJDP Fact Sheet on Costs and Benefits of Early Childhood Intervention
• Economic Policy Institute website info
• Approaches That Work in Early Childhood Intervention to Achieve Prevention Outcomes
• First Step to Success Publications List and
• Reviews of Effective Early Intervention Programs
• Cardinal Rules for Conducting Social Skills Training
• Sources of Recommended Evidence-Based Programs for Disruptive School Behavior

3. List of Handout Pages and Articles (2)
Articles
• Where is School Along the Path to Prison? By H. Walker & R.
Sylwester, Educational Leadership, September 1991.
• Exceptional Returns: Economic, Fiscal, and Social Benefits of
Investment in Early Childhood Development by R. G.
Lynch, Economic Policy Institute, Washington DC, 2004.
• Long-term Effects of Nurse Home Visitation on Children’s
Criminal and Antisocial Behavior, by Olds et al., JAMA, Vol.
280, No. 14., October, 1998.

11. Current Landscape of School-Related
Behavior Disorders (2)
• National Trends in the Identification of Students with
Behavioral Challenges
• (SED sample)
• (Autism sample)
• Approximately 1% of public school population served as EBD
under auspices of IDEA.
• Special Education can never solve problem
– (a) costs
– (b) legal and bureaucratic barriers

12. Universal Screening Methods Using Multiple
Gates
• First used by Cronbach in 1940’s
• Patterson, Loeber, & Dishion (1984) developed a three-
stage, multiple-gating model to identify delinquency-prone
youth
• Walker, Severson,& Feil (1990, 1995) have developed the
SSBD and ESP multiple-gating models for use in screening
BD students in preschool through elementary
• (example)

14. Developing innovations in better serving at risk
students has ramped up substantially in the past
decade
1. 3-tiered public health prevention model applied to
school contexts
2. Advent in use of response to intervention
approaches for screening, identification and
treatment
3. Strong interest by psychologists in conducting
school-based research on conduct disorders
4. Priority of adapting promising programs for routine
usage in school practices

15. Examples of Evidence-based
Interventions for Improved
Outcomes:
Universal, Selected, and
Indicated Approaches

19. Examples of High Quality ECD Programs that
Produce High Cost-Benefit Ratios
• The Perry Preschool Project
• The Prenatal/Early Infancy Project
• The Abecedarian Early Childhood
Intervention
• The Chicago Child-Parent Center Program

23. The Regional Intervention Program:
An Early Intervention for Oppositional,
Out-of-Control Children
Parents are taught to:
• Carefully monitor their child’s activities
• Ignore problem behavior and reward desired
behaviors
• Help their child to set self-management goals
• Work with other meaningful adults in the child’s life
to reinforce new styles of interaction
• Enlist support from family and community for the
child and themselves

24. The RIP Adult Follow-Up Study (1)
• As preschoolers, the children in this study had exhibited
severe and prolonged tantrums, continual opposition to
adults’ requests and commands, and physical aggression
toward their parents. Many of the parents were at a loss
as to what to do; nothing in their ordinary repertoires of
discipline seemed to work.
• After completing the intervention program through
RIP, these children and their families have been
transformed. Now adults in their mid-twenties and early
thirties, these children have, by and large, gone on to lead
full and productive lives.

25. The RIP Adult Follow-Up Study (2)
• All but one completed high school and a large fraction went on to college
and graduate school.
• All but one (the same one who dropped out of high school) are currently
employed.
• During their adolescence, one experimented with illegal drugs
(marijuana) and one (the high school dropout) was involved in the justice
system for theft.
• None of them was identified for special education or as emotionally
disturbed.
• There were no reports of any of these children ever engaging in
aggression toward parents, peers or teachers after completing the
program.
• After 25 years, most parents reported that the program had helped
improve parent-child interactions; that they had learned to use the
strategies at home and in public places; that they had been able to teach
them to other meaningful adults in the child’s life; and that their family’s
needs had effectively been addressed.

26. The Regional Intervention Program
RIPnetwork.org -- Parenting That Works!
The Regional Intervention Program has been serving families with young children
since 1969. RIP is an internationally recognized parent-implemented program in
which parents learn to work directly with their own children. Experienced RIP
parents provide training and support to newly enrolled families. The program is
available to families in which there are concerns regarding a young child's
behavior, and is coordinated by a professional resource staff person. Parents
should feel free to contact the program to discuss their concerns.
For program information contact:
Steve Karnies, Coordinator for RIP Expansion Sites
Regional Intervention Program
3411 Belmont Boulevard
Nashville, Tennessee 37215
phone: (615) 963-1177
fax: (615) 963-1178
e-mail the Regional Intervention Program: mail@ripnetwork.org
A program of the Tennessee Department of Mental Health

27. Why Effective Teachers and Orderly Classrooms
at the Point of School Entry REALLY Matter!
• A child’s first contacts with schooling forms a
strong, long-lasting impression.
• Well-managed, orderly classrooms foster
achievement and healthy social development.
• Long-term studies of aggressive, marginalized youth
show that those whose initial classrooms are chaotic
and poorly managed are far more aggressive and at-
risk in middle school than equally aggressive youth
initially assigned to orderly, well-managed
classrooms.

28. Universal Screening Methods Using Multiple Gates
(3)
• Disadvantages
– reduces discretion in teacher referral-
verification process
– each student identified must be served
– fear of costs and potential to identify large
number of BD students
– stigma

29. School Context
Factors That Influence Educator Adoption of
New Practices:
 Fits seamlessly into ongoing school routines
 Consistent with school and educator values
 Universal versus targeted interventions
 Solves a high priority problem or issue
 Time and effort costs are reasonable
 Teacher perceives s/he has the skills and
resources to apply practice effectively

30. Logic for School-wide PBS
• Schools face a set of difficult challenges today
• Multiple expectations (Academic accomplishment, Social
competence, Safety)
• Students arrive at school with widely differing
understandings of what is socially acceptable.
• Traditional “get tough” and “zero tolerance”
approaches are insufficient.
• Individual student interventions
• Effective, but can’t meet need
• School-wide discipline systems
• Establish a school culture within which both social
and academic success is more likely

31. Designing School-Wide Systems for Student Success
Academic Systems Behavioral Systems
Intensive, Individual Interventions Intensive, Individual Interventions
•Individual Students 1-5% 1-5% •Individual Students
•Assessment-based •Assessment-based
•High Intensity •Intense, durable procedures
Targeted Group Interventions 5-10% 5-10% Targeted Group Interventions
•Some students (at-risk) •Some students (at-risk)
•High efficiency •High efficiency
•Rapid response •Rapid response
Universal Interventions 80-90% Universal Interventions
80-90%
•All students •All settings, all students
•Preventive, proactive •Preventive, proactive

32. HIGH PRIORITY NEEDS TO HELP MARGINALIZED
STUDENTS ACHIEVE SCHOOL SUCCESS
1) Implement early, universal screening to detect students who are
at risk for :
a) Challenging behavior
b) Reading problems & failure
c) Poor motivation for engaging school
2) Teach the value of and strategies for achieving positive
relationships with others:
a) Teachers
b) Peers
3) Address the issues of bullying, harassment and relational
aggression as part of school curricula.
a) Cyber-bullying and cyber-aggression are especially
concerning in this context.