Presented at the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Austin, TX, May 15, 2016. Gary Langer, president Langer Research Associates

1. Attitudes on Climate Change:
Expressed Belief and
Preference x Priority
Presented at the annual meeting
of the American Association for Public Opinion Research
Austin, Texas
May 15, 2016
Gary Langer, president
Langer Research Associates

3. Serious Problem?
ABC News/Washington Post polls
69%
57%
29%
63%
52%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Serious (NET) Very serious Not serious
June '14 Nov. '15

4. Gov’t should...
ABC News/Washington Post polls
68% 70%
47%
21%
32%
5%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
March '06 April '07 July '08 Nov. '15
Do more Same Less

5. Most Scientists...
ABC News/Washington Post, Stanford, Ohio State U. polls
35%
43%
62%
51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oct. '97 Feb. '98 March '06 April '07 July '08 Dec. '09 Nov. '15
Agree Disagree

6. Views of Scientific Agreement
by Seriousness and Gov’t Do
ABC News/Washington Post polls
84%
74%
65%
6%
46%
33% 33%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Serious (NET) Very serious Do more Less
Scientists agree (43%)
Disagree (51%)

7. Seriousness by PID + Ideology
ABC News/Washington Post poll
81%
62%
43%
89%
67%
41%
72%
49%
28%
77%
54%
31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dems Inds Reps Lib Mod Cons
Serious (NET) Very serious

8. Gov’t Do by PID + Ideology
ABC News/Washington Post poll
65%
47%
22%
71%
51%
25%
4%
22%
32%
5%
11%
38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dems Inds Reps Lib Mod Cons
Do more Less

9. 57%
44%
28%
63%
47%
25%
37%
52%
68%
31%
49%
70%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dems Inds Reps Lib Mod Cons
Agree Disagree
Scientists Agree by PID + Ideology
ABC News/Washington Post poll

10. Expressed belief:
Assertions of “belief” and
assessments of seriousness
reflect underlying values and attitudes

11. Seriousness by PID + Ideology - Trend
ABC News/Washington Post polls
84%
68%
49%
87%
74%
56%
81%
62%
43%
89%
67%
41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dems Inds Reps Lib Mod Cons
June '14 Nov. '15
-3 -6 -6 +2 -7 -15

12. 78%
61%
39%
84%
62%
42%
65%
47%
22%
71%
51%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dems Inds Reps Lib Mod Cons
July '08 Nov. '15
Govt’d Do by PID + Ideology - Trend
ABC News/Washington Post polls
-13 -14 -17 -13 -11 -17

13. 55%
33%
20%
58%
38%
24%
57%
44%
28%
63%
47%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dems Inds Reps Lib Mod Cons
Dec. '09 Nov. '15
Scientists Agree by
PID + Ideology - Trend
ABC News/Washington Post polls
+2 +11 +8 +5 +9 +1

14. Preference X Priority

15. 59%
77%
61%
32%31%
13%
30%
55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
All Dems Inds Reps
Favors govt' action
Opposes it
Next President: Someone Who...
ABC News/Washington Post poll

16. Importance
ABC News/Washington Post poll
68%
76%
70%
39% 38% 39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
All Dems Inds Reps
Favor/impt Oppose/impt

17. PxP Scores
ABC News/Washington Post polls
1. Preference: +1 = favor, -1 = oppose
2. Priority: 100 = extremely important, 75 = very important, 50 = somewhat
important, 25 = not so important
3. Multiply preference x priority; example:
• +100 = favor action on climate change, extremely important
• - 100 = oppose action on climate change, extremely important

18. Comparative PxP Scores
ABC News/Washington Post poll
All Dems Inds Reps
Action on climate change 29 58 29 -12
Tax pledge -25 -33 -20 -21
Compromise 15 21 22 -1
Keep ACA 3 55 5 -63
Path to c’zenship 3 30 5 -39
Deal w/. Iran 2 24 5 -29

19. Attitudes on Climate Change:
Expressed Belief and
Preference x Priority
Thank you!