1. Peak Water, Climate Change, and California
Planning in an Uncertain World
Dr. Peter Gleick
Pacific Institute, Oakland, California

2. Overview
•
•
•
•
•
“Peak Water” - What does it mean?
California’s water: a quick glance
Climate changes are coming
New trends and thinking about solutions
New challenges: Planning in an uncertain
world
• Moving forward

3. Global
Population
Global CO2
Concentration

4. U.S. Oil
Production
Atlantic Cod
1950-2008

5. Market
Penetration of
Telephones in US
Ecosystem
carrying capacities
Cumulative Dam
Capacity in US

6. Renewable or Non-Renewable?
• Non-renewable resources are “stock” limited.
• Renewable resources are “flow” limited.
• Water uniquely exhibits characteristics of
both: overall renewable but with some fixed,
isolated non-renewable stocks.

7. Peak Renewable Water
Total Renewable Supply
But, how much can we
actually use??
How much should we
actually use?

8. Total Colorado River Flow at the Delta
Gleick and Palaniappan 2010

9. Peak “Non-Renewable” Water
Such as fossil groundwater
(Central Valley, Ogallala, Libya,
North China Plains, central
India…)

10. Overall Economic and Ecological Value
Peak “Ecological” Water
Amount of Water Appropriated by Humans

11. So, What Does Peak Water Mean?
• We’ll never “run out” of water overall. It is
(mostly) renewable.
• Where water is “non-renewable” we will run
into stock constraints.
• We will run up against “flow” limits that are a
combination of natural and economic
constraints.
• We are increasingly hitting (or exceeding)
peak “ecological” water limits.
• We have to change the way we plan for the
future.

12. California’s Water

13. Challenges for California water
• Droughts, floods, and limited water
availability (peak renewable)
• Overpumped aquifers (peak non-renewable)
• Water quality
• Collapsing Delta ecosystems and fisheries
(peak ecological water)
• Growing demands
• Long-term climate change
What does this all mean for planning?

16. California’s Population
160,000,000
CALIFORNIA
140,000,000
CA Dept. of Finance
Projections
120,000,000
High Series
Population
100,000,000
Middle Series
80,000,000
Low Series
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
1920
1940
1960
1980
Source: California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit
http://www.dof.ca.gov/Research/Research.asp
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
2120

19. Water Diversions from the Delta
Source: CA State Water Project reports and
US Bureau of Reclamation 2012 data

20. Delta Fisheries: Massive Declines
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Delta smelt
Longfin smelt
Chinook salmon
Steelhead trout
Threadfin shad
Green and white sturgeon
Sacramento splittail
Striped bass

21. How does California use its water?
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
Source: DWR 2005a

22. Traditional solutions are tapped out, or
no longer appropriate (or are the
problem!)

23. Reservoir Capacity in California
1850 to Present

24. Approaching Peak
Non-Renewable
Groundwater
Observed groundwater
trends in the Sacramento
and San Joaquin River
basins
Oct. 2003 to March 2009
(Image courtesy of NASA).

25. • And Climate Change is Here
We are as sure that humans are
causing climate change as we are
that smoking tobacco causes
cancer.

28. Global Average Sea Level Changes

29. Detailed Maps for California can be found at www.pacinst.org.

30. Detailed Maps for California can be found at www.pacinst.org.

31. Natural Catastrophes in North America
1980 to 2011

32. What Does Climate Change Mean for
Planning?
• Rising temperatures and extreme heat events.
• Disappearing snowpack and a change in water
availability, timing, and quality.
• Rising sea levels and dramatic changes in
coastal flooding risks.
• More extreme events: droughts and floods.

33. New Thinking about Water Solutions
• Rethink “supply”
– Conjunctive use, treated wastewater, innovative
transfers, desalination, rainwater harvesting
• Rethink “demand”
– Reduce waste and increase efficiency, rethink
economic priorities and choices
• Rethink “management”
– New institutions, improve existing
institutions, better water monitoring

34. Water Conservation and Efficiency

35. What’s the first thing to do to a leaky
bucket?
$
$
$
$
$
$

36. Distribution of Toilets in California

37. Indoor Residential Water Use
3,500,000
Acre-feet per year
3,000,000
No Conservation
2,500,000
2,000,000
Current Use
1,500,000
“Full Conservation”
1,000,000
500,000
Haasz et al. 2002
Year
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
19
80
0

38. California Urban Water Use Scenarios

39. Producing More Food and Fiber with
Less Water
• Efficient Irrigation Technology
– Changing irrigation technology
• Improved Irrigation Scheduling
– Using local climate and soil information to
schedule irrigation; and
• Regulated Deficit Irrigation
– applying RDI to appropriate lands and crops.

40. Irrigation Technology is
Improving, More Potential Remains
100%
Percent of Irrigated Acreage
80%
60%
Micro/Drip
Sprinkler
Flood
40%
20%
0%
Field Crops Vegetables
Orchards
Vineyards
All Crops

41. Final Thoughts About Planning
• Our assumptions that the past is a good guide
to the future are no longer valid.
• There are good scientific and analytical tools
for looking at future scenarios.
• There are strategies for reducing vulnerability
to “peak water” limits and to climate changes.
• But new thinking, open minds, new
approaches are needed for planners and policy
makers.

42. Dr. Peter H. Gleick
pgleick@pacinst.org
Pacific
Institute, Oakland, Californi
a
www.pacinst.org
www.worldwater.org