Practical
Lean Analytics
Growthcon
October 24, 2014
@acroll

Kevin Costner is a lousy entrepreneur.
Don’t sell what you can make. Make what you can sell.

The core of Lean
is iteration.

Most startups don’t know what they’ll
be when they grow up.
Hotmail
was a
database
company
Flickr
was going to
be an MMO
Twitter
was a
podcasting
company
Autodesk
made
desktop
automation
Paypal
first built for
Palmpilots
Freshbooks
was invoicing
for a web
design firm
Wikipedia
was to be
written by
experts only
Mitel
was a
lawnmower
company

Waterfall, agile, and lean
(Why the old ways don’t work.)

Waterfall approach
You know the problem and the solution.

Known set of
requirements
Known ways to satisfy
them
Spec Build Test Launch

Agile methodologies
Know the problem, find the solution

Known set of
requirements
Unclear how to satisfy
them
Problem Build Test Viable? Launch
statement
Sprints
Adjust
Unknown set of

Lean approach
First, know that you don’t know.

Product/market
hypothesis Trial startup
Possible problem
space
Product/
market
hypothesis
Trial startup
Product/
market
hypothesis
Trial startup
Trial startup
Product/market
hypothesis
You are
here
PIVOT

Why now?
First: High rate of change of digital
technologies & channels.

Arbitron and radio data

Times a song in “heavy
rotation” is played daily
30
15
0
6 26
2007 2012

Why now?
Second: It’s no longer about whether
you can build it—it’s about whether
anyone will care.

The Attention Economy
“What information consumes
is rather obvious: it consumes
the attention of its recipients.
Hence a wealth of information
creates a poverty of attention, and a
need to allocate that attention efficiently
among the overabundance of
information sources that might
consume it.”
(Computers, Communications and the Public Interest, pages 40-41,
Herbert Simon Martin Greenberger, ed., The Johns Hopkins Press, 1971.)

Lit motors tests the risky part

Unfortunately, it is hard to be honest
with ourselves.

Everyone’s idea is
the best right?
People love
this part!
(but that’s not always
a good thing)
No data, no
learning.
This is where
things fall apart.

Analytics can help.

Analytics is the measurement of
movement towards your business
goals.

In a startup, the purpose of analytics is
to iterate to product/market fit
before the money runs out.

Some fundamentals.

A good metric is:
Understandable
If you’re busy
explaining the
data, you won’t
be busy acting
on it.
Comparative
Comparison is
context.
A ratio or rate
The only way to
measure
change and roll
up the tension
between two
metrics (MPH)
Behavior
changing
What will you
do differently
based on the
results you
collect?

The
simplest
rule
If a metric won’t change how
you behave, it’s a
bad
metric.
h"p://www.flickr.com/photos/circasassy/7858155676/

Metrics help you know yourself.
Acquisition
Hybrid
Loyalty
You are
just like
70%
of retailers
20%
of retailers
10%
of retailers
Customers that
buy >1x in 90d
Your customers
will buy from you
Once
2-2.5
per year
>2.5
per year
Then you are
in this mode
1-15%
15-30%
>30%
Focus on
Low acquisition
cost, high checkout
Increasing return
rates, market share
Loyalty, selection,
inventory size
(Thanks to Kevin Hillstrom for this.)

Qualitative
Unstructured, anecdotal,
revealing, hard to
aggregate, often too
positive & reassuring.
Warm and fuzzy.
Quantitative
Numbers and stats.
Hard facts, less insight,
easier to analyze; often
sour and disappointing.
Cold and hard.

Exploratory
Speculative. Tries to find
unexpected or
interesting insights.
Source of unfair
advantages.
Cool.
Reporting
Predictable. Keeps you
abreast of the normal,
day-to-day operations.
Can be managed by
exception.
Necessary.

Rumsfeld on Analytics
Things we
know
don’t
know
(Or rather, Avinash Kaushik channeling Rumsfeld)
we know Are facts which may be wrong and
should be checked against data.
we don’t
know
Are questions we can answer by
reporting, which we should baseline
& automate.
we know
Are intuition which we should
quantify and teach to improve
effectiveness, efficiency.
we don’t
know
Are exploration which is where
unfair advantage and interesting
epiphanies live.

Slicing and dicing data
Feb Mar Apr May
5,000
Active users
0
Jan
Cohort:
Comparison of
similar groups
along a timeline.
(this is the April cohort)
A/B test:
Changing one thing
(i.e. color) and
measuring the
result (i.e. revenue.)
Multivariate
analysis
Changing several
things at once to
see which correlates
with a result.
☀☁☀☁
Segment:
Cross-sectional
comparison of all
people divided by
some attribute (age,
gender, etc.)
☀
☁

Which of these two companies
is doing better?

January February March April May
Is this company Rev/customer $5.00 $4.50 $4.33 $4.25 $4.50
growing or stagnating?
Cohort 1 2 3 4 5
January $5 $3 $2 $1 $0.5
February $6 $4 $2 $1
March $7 $6 $5
April $8 $7
May $9
How about
this one?

Cohort 1 2 3 4 5
January $5 $3 $2 $1 $0.5
February $6 $4 $2 $1
March $7 $6 $5
April $8 $7
May $9
Averages $7 $5 $3 $1 $0.5
Look at the
same data
in cohorts

Lagging
Historical. Shows you
how you’re doing;
reports the news.
Example: sales.
Explaining the
past.
Leading
Forward-looking.
Number today that
predicts tomorrow;
reports the news.
Example: pipeline.
Predicting the
future.

Some examples
A Facebook user reaching 7 friends within 10 days of signing up
(Chamath Palihapitiya)
If someone comes back to Zynga a day after signing up for a game,
they’ll probably become an engaged, paying user (Nabeel Hyatt)
A Dropbox user who puts at least one file in one folder on one device
(ChenLi Wang)
Twitter user following a certain number of people, and a certain
percentage of those people following the user back (Josh Elman)
A LinkedIn user getting to X connections in Y days (Elliot Schmukler)
(From the 2012 Growth Hacking conference. http://growthhackersconference.com/)

Which means it’s time to talk
about correlation.

10000
1000
100
10
1
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Ice cream consumption Drownings

Correlated
Two variables that are
related (but may be
dependent on
something else.)
Ice cream &
drowning.
Causal
An independent variable
that directly impacts a
dependent one.
Summertime &
drowning.

A leading, causal metric
is a superpower.
h"p://www.flickr.com/photos/bloke_with_camera/401812833/sizes/o/in/photostream/

Why is Nigerian spam so badly
written?

Experienced scammers expect a “strike rate” of 1 or 2 replies per 1,000 messages
emailed; they expect to land 2 or 3 “Mugu” (fools) each week.
One scammer boasted “When you get a reply it’s 70% sure you’ll get the money”
“By sending an email that repels all but the most gullible,” says [Microsoft Researcher
Corman] Herley, “the scammer gets the most promising marks to self-select, and tilts
the true to false positive ratio in his favor.”
This would be horribly
inefficient since
humans are involved.
Good language (10% conversion)
Not-gullible (.07% conversion)
Aunshul Rege of Rutgers University, USA in 2009
1000 emails
Bad language (0.1% conversion)
1-2 responses
Gullible (70% conversion)
1 fool and their money, parted.
1000 emails
100 responses
1 fool and their money, parted.

Turns out the word “Nigeria” is the best
way to identify promising prospects.

Nigerian spammers
really understand their target market.
They see past vanity metrics.

The Lean Analytics framework.

Sustainable growth comes through the
actions of your customers.
- Eric Ries

Eric’s three engines of growth
Virality
Make people
invite friends.
How many they
tell, how fast they
tell them.
Price
Spend money to
get customers.
Customers are
worth more than
they cost.
Stickiness
Keep people
coming back.
Approach
Get customers
faster than you
lose them.
Math that
matters

Dave’s Pirate Metrics
AARRR Acquisition
How do your users become aware of you?
SEO, SEM, widgets, email, PR, campaigns, blogs ...
Activation
Do drive-by visitors subscribe, use, etc?
Features, design, tone, compensation, affirmation ...
Retention
Does a one-time user become engaged?
Notifications, alerts, reminders, emails, updates...
Revenue
Do you make money from user activity?
Transactions, clicks, subscriptions, DLC, analytics...
Referral
Do users promote your product?
Email, widgets, campaigns, likes, RTs, affiliates...

Gate
Stage
EMPATHY I’ve found a real, poorly-met need that a
reachable market faces.
STICKINESS I’ve figured out how to solve the problem in a
way they will keep using and pay for.
VIRALITY I’ve found ways to get them to tell their friends,
either intrinsically or through incentives.
REVENUE The users and features fuel growth organically
and artificially.
SCALE I’ve found a sustainable, scalable business with
the right margins in a healthy ecosystem.
The five stages

Empathy stage:
Localmind hacks Twitter
Needed to find out if a core assumption—strangers answering
questions—was valid.
Ran Twitter experiment instead of writing code
Asked senders of geolocated Tweets from Times Square random
questions; counted response rate
Conclusion: high enough to proceed

LikeBright’s mechanical turk
Used Mechanical Turk, Google Voice to speak w/
100 single women; paid $2. The interviews
lasted typically around 10-15 minutes.
Simple interview script with open-ended
questions, since he was digging into the problem
validation stage of his startup.
Founder Nick Soman: “I was amazed at the
feedback I got. We were able to speak with one
hundred single women that met our criteria in
four hours on one evening.”
Went back to TechStars and got accepted.
LikeBright’s website is now live with a 50%
female user base, and recently raised a round of
funding.
“Since that first foray into interviewing customers,
I’ve probably spoken with over a thousand
people through Mechanical Turk,”

How to avoid leading the witness
Avoid biased wording, preconceptions, or
a giveaway appearance. Word your
surveys carefully to be neutral.
Get them to purchase. Ask them to pay. Demand real
Ask “why” several times. Leave lingering, uncomfortable pauses
Don’t tip your hand
Make the question real
Keep digging
Look for other clues Have a colleague make notes of when they react, or of their body

Stickiness stage:
qidiq streamlines invites
Survey owner adds recipient to group
Survey owner asks question
Recipient reads survey question
Recipient responds to question
Recipient sees survey results
(Later, if needed…)
Recipient visits site; no password!
Recipient does password recovery
One-time link sent to email
Recipient creates password
Recipient can edit profile, etc.
Survey owner adds recipient to group
Survey owner asks question
Recipient gets invite
Recipient installs mobile app
Recipient creates account, profile
Recipient can edit profile, etc.
Recipient reads survey question
Recipient responds to question
Recipient sees survey results
10-25% RESPONSE RATE
70-90% RESPONSE RATE

1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
January February
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Days since last engagement
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Disengaged
(>10 days)
Number of users
A better approach to engagement
This is a
good thing.

Who is worth more?
A Lifetime:
B Lifetime:
Today
$200
$200
Roberto Medri, Etsy
Visits

Virality stage: Timehop focuses
on content sharing
Focused on percent of daily active users that share their content
Aiming for 20-30% of DAU sharing
“All that matters now is virality. Everything else—be
it press, publicity stunts or something else—is like
pushing a rock up a mountain: it will never scale.
But being viral will.”
- Jonathan Wegener, co-founder

------------------------------------------------------
Get your free private email at http://www.hotmail.com
------------------------------------------------------

v ≠ 1, pt = δp0 (1 – vt+1) / (1 – v) + p0
http://robert.zubek.net/blog/2008/01/30/viral-coefficient-calculation/
Viral coefficient

Or simpler
x - > 1
Users Viral
coefficient
Churn &
abandonment

Revenue stage: Backupify’s
Customer Acquisition Payback
Initially focused on site visitors
Then focused on trials
Then switched to signups
Today, MRR
In early 2010, CAC was $243 and ARPU was only $39
Pivoted to target business users
CLV-to-CAC today is 5-6x
Now they track Customer Acquisition Payback
Target is less than 12 months

Scale stage:
Incremental order cost
Marginal costs
Fixed costs

Six business model archetypes.
E-commerce SaaS Mobile Media
app
User-gen
content
2-sided
market
The business you’re in

(Which means eye
charts like these.)
Customer Acquisition Cost
paid direct search wom inherent
virality
VISITOR
Freemium/trial offer
Enrollment
User
Disengaged User
Freemium
churn
Cancel
Engaged User
Free user
disengagement
Reactivate
Trial abandonment
Cancel
rate
Invite Others
Upselling
rate Upselling
Paying Customer
Reactivation
rate
Paid
conversion
FORMER USERS
User Lifetime Value
Reactivate
Capacity Limit
Support data
FORMER CUSTOMERS
Customer Lifetime Value
Viral coefficient
Viral rate
Resolution
Account Cancelled Billing Info Exp.
Paid Churn Rate
Tiering
Trial Over Disengaged Dissatisfied

Acquisition
Customer Acquisition Cost
paid direct search wom inherent
virality
VISITOR
Freemium/trial offer
Enrollment
User
Disengaged User
Freemium
churn
Cancel
Engaged User
Free user
disengagement
Reactivate
Trial abandonment
Cancel
rate
Invite Others
Upselling
rate Upselling
Paying Customer
Reactivation
rate
Paid
conversion
FORMER USERS
User Lifetime Value
Reactivate
Capacity Limit
Support data
FORMER CUSTOMERS
Customer Lifetime Value
Viral coefficient
Viral rate
Resolution
Account Cancelled Billing Info Exp.
Paid Churn Rate
Tiering
Trial Over Disengaged Dissatisfied

Activation
Customer Acquisition Cost
paid direct search wom inherent
virality
VISITOR
Freemium/trial offer
Enrollment
User
Disengaged User
Freemium
churn
Cancel
Engaged User
Free user
disengagement
Reactivate
Trial abandonment
Cancel
rate
Invite Others
Upselling
rate Upselling
Paying Customer
Reactivation
rate
Paid
conversion
FORMER USERS
User Lifetime Value
Reactivate
Capacity Limit
Support data
FORMER CUSTOMERS
Customer Lifetime Value
Viral coefficient
Viral rate
Resolution
Account Cancelled Billing Info Exp.
Paid Churn Rate
Tiering
Trial Over Disengaged Dissatisfied

Retention
Customer Acquisition Cost
paid direct search wom inherent
virality
VISITOR
Freemium/trial offer
Enrollment
User
Disengaged User
Freemium
churn
Cancel
Engaged User
Free user
disengagement
Reactivate
Trial abandonment
Cancel
rate
Invite Others
Upselling
rate Upselling
Paying Customer
Reactivation
rate
Paid
conversion
FORMER USERS
User Lifetime Value
Reactivate
Capacity Limit
Support data
FORMER CUSTOMERS
Customer Lifetime Value
Viral coefficient
Viral rate
Resolution
Account Cancelled Billing Info Exp.
Paid Churn Rate
Tiering
Trial Over Disengaged Dissatisfied

Revenue
Customer Acquisition Cost
paid direct search wom inherent
virality
VISITOR
Freemium/trial offer
Enrollment
User
Disengaged User
Freemium
churn
Cancel
Engaged User
Free user
disengagement
Reactivate
Trial abandonment
Cancel
rate
Invite Others
Upselling
rate Upselling
Paying Customer
Reactivation
rate
Paid
conversion
FORMER USERS
User Lifetime Value
Reactivate
Capacity Limit
Support data
FORMER CUSTOMERS
Customer Lifetime Value
Viral coefficient
Viral rate
Resolution
Account Cancelled Billing Info Exp.
Paid Churn Rate
Tiering
Trial Over Disengaged Dissatisfied

Revenue
Customer Acquisition Cost
paid direct search wom inherent
virality
VISITOR
Freemium/trial offer
Enrollment
User
Disengaged User
Freemium
churn
Cancel
Engaged User
Free user
disengagement
Reactivate
Trial abandonment
Cancel
rate
Invite Others
Upselling
rate Upselling
Paying Customer
Reactivation
rate
Paid
conversion
FORMER USERS
User Lifetime Value
Reactivate
Capacity Limit
Support data
FORMER CUSTOMERS
Customer Lifetime Value
Viral coefficient
Viral rate
Resolution
Account Cancelled Billing Info Exp.
Paid Churn Rate
Tiering
Trial Over Disengaged Dissatisfied

Model + Stage = One Metric That Matters.
The business you’re in
E-Com SaaS Mobile 2-Sided Media UCG
One Metric
That Matters.
Empathy
Stickiness
Virality
Revenue
Scale
The stage you’re at

Really? Just one?

Yes, one.

In a startup, focus is hard to achieve.

Having only one metric
addresses this problem.

www.theeastsiderla.com

Moz cuts down on metrics
SaaS-based SEO toolkit in the scale stage. Focused on net adds.
Was a marketing campaign successful?
Were customer complaints lowered?
Was a product upgrade valuable?
Net adds up:
Can we acquire more valuable customers?
What product features can increase engagement?
Can we improve customer support?
Net adds flat:
Are the new customers not the right segment?
Did a marketing campaign fail?
Did a product upgrade fail somehow?
Is customer support falling apart?
Net adds down:

Metrics are like squeeze toys.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/connortarter/4791605202/

Empathy
Stickiness
Virality
Revenue
Scale
E-commerce
Mobile
app
User-gen
content
SaaS Media
2-sided
market
Interviews; qualitative results; quantitative scoring; surveys
Loyalty,
conversion
CAC, shares,
reactivation
(Money from transactions)
Transaction,
CLV
Affiliates,
white-label
Engagement,
churn
Inherent
virality, CAC
(Money from active users)
Upselling,
CAC, CLV
API, magic #,
mktplace
Content,
spam
Invites,
sharing
(Money from ad clicks)
Ads,
donations
Analytics,
user data
Inventory,
listings
SEM, sharing
Transactions,
commission
Other
verticals
Downloads,
churn, virality
WoM, app
ratings, CAC
CLV,
ARPDAU
Spinoffs,
publishers
Traffic, visits,
returns
Content
virality, SEM
CPE, affiliate
%, eyeballs
Syndication,
licenses

Better: bit.ly/BigLeanTable

Drawing some lines in the sand.

A company loses a quarter of its
customers every year.
Is this good or bad?

Baseline:
2-5% monthly churn
• The best SaaS get 1.5% - 3% a month. They have multiple Ph.D’s
on the job.
• Get below a 5% monthly churn rate before you know you’ve got a
business that’s ready to grow (Mark MacLeod) and around 2%
before you really step on the gas (David Skok)
• Last-ditch appeals and reactivation can have a big impact.
Facebook’s “don’t leave” reduces attrition by 7%.

Not knowing what normal is
makes you do unwise things.

Baseline:
5-7% growth a week
“A good growth rate during YC
is 5-7% a week,” he says. “If
you can hit 10% a week you're
doing exceptionally well. If you
can only manage 1%, it's a sign
you haven't yet figured out
what you're doing.” At revenue
stage, measure growth in
revenue. Before that, measure
growth in active users.
Paul Graham, Y Combinator
• Are there enough people who really care
enough to sustain a 5% growth rate?
• Don’t strive for a 5% growth at the expense
of really understanding your customers
and building a meaningful solution
• Once you’re a pre-revenue startup at or
near product/market fit, you should have
5% growth of active users each week
• Once you’re generating revenues, they
should grow at 5% a week

Baseline:
10% visitor engagement/day
30% of users/month use web or mobile app
10% of users/day use web or mobile app
1%of users/day use it concurrently
Fred Wilson’s social ratios

Baseline:
Calculating customer lifetime
25%
5%
monthly churn
monthly churn
100/25=4
100/5=20
The average
The average
customer lasts
customer lasts
4 months
20 months
2%
monthly churn
100/2=50
The average
customer lasts
50 months

Baseline:
CAC under 1/3 of CLV
• CLV is wrong. CAC Is probably wrong, too.
• Time kills all plans: It’ll take a long time to find
out whether your churn and revenue projections
are right
• Cashflow: You’re basically “loaning” the
customer money between acquisition and CLV.
• It keeps you honest: Limiting yourself to a
CAC of only a third of your CLV will forces you
to verify costs sooner.
Lifetime of 20 mo.
$30/mo. per
customer
$600 CLV
1/3 spend
$200 CAC
Now segment
those users!

Etsy
• Online store for creative types, founded 2005
• $525M Gross Merchandise Sales in 2011, with
19,000,000 members and 800,000 active
shops offering 15,000,000 items for sale
• 1.4B pageviews per month ~2M iPhone app
downloads
• Thin revenues: Etsy makes only $0.20 or 3.5%
margin
• Heavy focus on Customer Lifetime Value (buyer
and seller)
• Actually residual lifetime value; they take this
pretty seriously.

Etsy
• The best customers to target are
• Recent high-profile customers
• Old-time best customers about to
churn or just churned
• Tiered campaigns
• Bronze/silver customers: reinforcement,
nudges
• Gold customers: premium services
• Platinum customers: recognition
• What they watch:
• Growth of individual product categories
• Time to first sale by a user
• Average order value
• Percentage of visits that convert to a
sale
• Percentage of return buyers
• Distinct sellers within a product
category
• Time-to-first-sale and average order
value by product category
Roberto Medri, Etsy

The Lean Analytics cycle

Pick a KPI Draw a line
Draw a new line
Pivot or
give up
Try again
Success!
Did we move the
needle?
Measure
the results
Design a test
Make changes
in production
Find a potential
improvement
With data:
find a
commonality
Without data:
make a good
guess
Hypothesis

Do AirBnB hosts
get more business
if their property is
professionally
photographed?

Gut instinct (hypothesis)
Professional photography helps AirBnB’s business
Candidate solution (MVP)
20 field photographers posing as employees
Measure the results
Compare photographed listings to a control group
Make a decision
Launch photography as a new feature for all hosts

5,000 shoots per month
by February 2012

Hang on a second.

REALLY?
Gut instinct (hypothesis)
Professional photography helps AirBnB’s business

Pick a KPI Draw a line
Draw a new line
Pivot or
give up
Try again
Success!
Did we move the
needle?
Measure
the results
Design a test
Make changes
in production
Find a potential
improvement
With data:
find a
commonality
Without data:
make a good
guess
Hypothesis

“Gee, those
houses that do
well look really
nice.”
Maybe it’s the
camera.
With data:
find a commonality
“Computer: What
do all the
highly rented
houses have in
common?”
Camera model.
Without data: make a
good guess

Circle of Moms: Not enough engagement
• Too few people were
actually using the
product
• Less than 20% of any
circles had any activity
after their initial creation
• A few million monthly
uniques from 10M
registered users, but no
sustained traction
• They found moms were far more engaged
• Their messages to one another were on average 50% longer
• They were 115% more likely to attach a picture to a post they wrote
• They were 110% more likely to engage in a threaded (i.e. deep)
conversation
• Circle owners’ friends were 50% more likely to engage with the circle
• They were 75% more likely to click on Facebook notifications
• They were 180% more likely to click on Facebook news feed items
• They were 60% more likely to accept invitations to the app
• Pivoted to the new market, including a name change
• By late 2009, 4.5M users and strong engagement
• Sold to Sugar, inc. in early 2012

Landing page design A/B testing
Cohort analysis General analytics
URL shortening
Funnel analytics
Influencer Marketing
Publisher analytics
SaaS analytics
Gaming analytics
User analytics Spying on users
User interaction Customer User segmentation satisfaction KPI dashboards

Growth hacking
(is a word you should hate but will hear a lot about.)

Growth hacking, demystified.
Find
correlation
Test
causality
Optimize the
causal factor
Pick a metric
to change

http://blog.justgiving.com/nine-reasons-why-social-and-mobile-are-the-future-of-fundraising/
Is social action a leading
indicator of donation?

http://blog.justgiving.com/nine-reasons-why-social-and-mobile-are-the-future-of-fundraising/
Is mobile use?

Guerrilla
marketing
Data-driven
learning
GROWTH
HACKING
Subversiveness

AirBnB and Craigslist

Take baby steps.

Netflix

Tesla
http://www.hdwallpapersinn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/600-tesla.jpg

Twitter’s 140-character
limit isn’t arbitrary. It’s
constrained by the size
http://i.i.cbsi.com/cnwk.1d/i/tim/2011/11/18/
sms_screen_twitter_activity_stream_270x405.png

http://www.flickr.com/photos/bootbearwdc/1243690099/
Think subversively.

To summarize:

1. Define your business model

2. Draw a
system
diagram

3. Decide what
stage you’re at

4. Identify the One Metric That Matters
(usually the one that is most broken)

5. Use the cycle to
experiment until
you’ve achieved
the desired result.

6. Set up monitoring for this metric in
case it breaks, and choose a new
OMTM

Conclusions

“The most important figures that one
needs for management are unknown
or unknowable, but successful
management must nevertheless take
account of them.”
Lloyd S. Nelson

Pic by Twodolla on Flickr. http://www.flickr.com/photos/twodolla/3168857844

ARCHIMEDES
HAD TAKEN
BATHS BEFORE.

Once, a leader convinced others
in the absence of data.

Now, a leader knows
what questions to ask.

Ben Yoskovitz
byosko@gmail.com
@byosko
Alistair Croll
acroll@gmail.com
@acroll

The mobile app!
customer lifecycle!
Ratings
Reviews
Search
Leaderboards
Purchases
App store!
App sales
Downloads
Installs
Play
Disengagement
Reactivation
Uninstallation
Disengagement
Account"
creation
Virality
Downloads,"
Gross revenue
ARPU
Activation
Churn, CLV
In-app"
purchases
Legitimate
Incentivized
Fraudulent
Ratings!

Building message maps

Build a message map.
1. Understand the stages a buyer goes through 2. Create benefits; mitigate objections 3. Target the message to the stage the audience is at

Everyone in the world
A. I need a car
I should buy
B. a car
It should be
C. a hybrid
I should buy
D. a Honda Civic

Everyone in the world
A. I need a car
People who want to drive
I should buy
B. a car
Prospective car buyers
It should be
C. a hybrid
People looking for a hybrid
I should buy
D. a Honda Civic
Honda Civic Hybrid owners

“Isn’t it time you got out of the
city?” campaign showing how cars
make nature accessible & ridiculing
urban hipsters.
Ads showing how cars are needed
any time (pregnancy, errands, urgent
business) and how a car is a
“personal assistant.”
Urgency (“every time you drive a
non-hybrid car you kill the planet a
little”) and testimonials from buyers
who’ve saved money.
Honda branding ads and model-specific
promotions.
Follow-up satisfaction campaign to
encourage buyers to tell their friends
Everyone in the world
A. I need a car
People who want to drive
“I need a vehicle to get
around, be productive, and
enjoy my life.”
I should buy
B. a car
Prospective car buyers
“I want to own a car because it’s
convenient; it’s a personal
relationship; I don’t trust others.”
It should be
C. a hybrid
People looking for a hybrid
“I want to save money and fuel. I
also care about the environment
and want to be seen as ‘green’.”
I should buy
D. a Honda Civic
Honda Civic Hybrid owners

Everyone in the world
People who want to drive
“I need a vehicle to get
around, be productive, and
enjoy my life.”
Prospective car buyers
“I want to own a car because it’s
convenient; it’s a personal
relationship; I don’t trust others.”
People looking for a hybrid
“I want to save money and fuel. I
also care about the environment
and want to be seen as ‘green’.”
Honda Civic Hybrid owners
Those who don’t need cars
• I’m too young to drive
• I’m too old to drive
• I can walk or take public
transit
Car users who won’t buy
• It’s too expensive for me
• I will use a shared car service
• It’ll get stolen
Those who won’t buy hybrids
• Hybrids are gutless
• Batteries are toxic & explosive
• In the end it costs more than
it saves
I will buy another brand
• I buy domestic
• I’ve always driven a VW
• Toyotas are reliable
• I want something prestigious
A. I need a car
I should buy
B. a car
It should be
C. a hybrid
I should buy
D. a Honda Civic

Everyone in the world
People who want to drive
“I need a vehicle to get
around, be productive, and
enjoy my life.”
Prospective car buyers
“I want to own a car because it’s
convenient; it’s a personal
relationship; I don’t trust others.”
People looking for a hybrid
“I want to save money and fuel. I
also care about the environment
and want to be seen as ‘green’.”
Honda Civic Hybrid owners
Those who don’t need cars
• I’m too young to drive
• I’m too old to drive
• I can walk or take public
transit
Car users who won’t buy
• It’s too expensive for me
• I will use a shared car service
• It’ll get stolen
Those who won’t buy hybrids
• Hybrids are gutless
• Batteries are toxic & explosive
• In the end it costs more than
it saves
I will buy another brand
• I buy domestic
• I’ve always driven a VW
• Toyotas are reliable
• I want something prestigious
Sponsor a driving school
“Give the gift of driving”
campaign for grandparents.
PR on dangers of commuting,
pedestrian deaths
Financing, cashback
Sell to carshares;
underscore their limitations
Theft warranty, tracking
services, high-end locks
Independent tests,
standard metrics (0-60 in X)
Lab research, studies
ROI calculator;
replacement programs
Prove Honda hires US workers
“Time to leave Germany” ads
Spontaneous accel. stories
Premium brand (Acura)
A. I need a car
I should buy
B. a car
It should be
C. a hybrid
I should buy
D. a Honda Civic

“Isn’t it time you got out of the
city?” campaign showing how cars
make nature accessible & ridiculing
urban hipsters.
Ads showing how cars are needed
any time (pregnancy, errands, urgent
business) and how a car is a
“personal assistant.”
Urgency (“every time you drive a
non-hybrid car you kill the planet a
little”) and testimonials from buyers
who’ve saved money.
Honda branding ads and model-specific
promotions.
Follow-up satisfaction campaign to
encourage buyers to tell their friends
Everyone in the world
People who want to drive
“I need a vehicle to get
around, be productive, and
enjoy my life.”
Prospective car buyers
“I want to own a car because it’s
convenient; it’s a personal
relationship; I don’t trust others.”
People looking for a hybrid
“I want to save money and fuel. I
also care about the environment
and want to be seen as ‘green’.”
Honda Civic Hybrid owners
Those who don’t need cars
• I’m too young to drive
• I’m too old to drive
• I can walk or take public
transit
Car users who won’t buy
• It’s too expensive for me
• I will use a shared car service
• It’ll get stolen
Those who won’t buy hybrids
• Hybrids are gutless
• Batteries are toxic & explosive
• In the end it costs more than
it saves
I will buy another brand
• I buy domestic
• I’ve always driven a VW
• Toyotas are reliable
• I want something prestigious
Sponsor a driving school
“Give the gift of driving”
campaign for grandparents.
PR on dangers of commuting,
pedestrian deaths
Financing, cashback
Sell to carshares;
underscore their limitations
Theft warranty, tracking
services, high-end locks
Independent tests,
standard metrics (0-60 in X)
Lab research, studies
ROI calculator;
replacement programs
Prove Honda hires US workers
“Time to leave Germany” ads
Spontaneous accel. stories
Premium brand (Acura)
A. I need a car
I should buy
B. a car
It should be
C. a hybrid
I should buy
D. a Honda Civic