1) Global food demand is projected to increase substantially by 2050 due to population and income growth, putting pressure on agricultural systems. Key commodities like palm oil, soy, and beef will need to significantly scale up sustainable production. 2) New approaches are needed across agricultural supply chains to improve sustainability. Areas of focus include reducing waste, adopting better farming practices, utilizing new technologies, defining property rights, and intensifying sustainable production. Multi-stakeholder initiatives and pre-competitive collaboration can help drive systemic changes. 3) Long-term contracts, increased transparency, and cooperation across the public and private sectors will be important to transform global commodity markets and meet rising demand for food and fiber in an environmentally responsible

1. Jason Clay
maintaining
SVP Markets, WWF-US the planet

2. “You can’t wake a person
who’s pretending to sleep”
Oromo proverb

3. global food
40 years =
8,000 years

4. Global trends by 2050
200
Income
180
160
140
percent increase
120
100 Consumption
80
60
40
20 Population
0
2010 2050
Source: United Nations

5. Countries with 5-7% GDP growth (2010-2011)
Countries with >7% GDP growth (2010-2011)

6. FAO Food Price Index
2002 - 2004 = 100
250
Nominal
210
170
130
Real*
90
50
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
*The real price index is the nominal price index deflated by the World Bank Manufacturers Unit Value Index (MUV)

7. Top food exporting countries,
2002-12 (oilseed & cereals)

8. Drought-affected countries,
2012

9. on a finite planet, should consumers have a
choice about sustainable products?
or should all choices be sustainable?

10. Selected products, water use and farmer income
Raw material Water to
Farm gate price
input produce input
1 4 oz 500 to 2,000 US $0.18
cotton t-shirt ginned liters of water (US)
1 6T 175-250 US $0.04
liter of soda sugar liters of water (World)
1 oz 6 oz 40 US $0.07
slice of cheese milk liters of water (US)
1 double 8 oz 3,000 to 15,000 US $0.92
quarter-pounder hamburger liters of water (US)
Source: USDA

11. Food as a % of U.S. disposable
income
28%
24%
20%
16%
12%
8%
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: USDA

12. 33% for food

13. Countries with parks
being taken off the books

14. we must
intensify production

15. to eliminate
agricultural sprawl

16. WWF’s 35 Priority Places

17. 2 1 1 2 4 3 1 1 5
palm oil cotton biofuels sugarcane pulp & paper
1 10 3 1 3 5 1 5 1
sawn wood dairy beef soy low trophic level species
1 1 3 6 6 1
farmed salmon farmed shrimp tropical shrimp tuna whitefish
Priority commodities 1 China 1 India

18. 7 BILLION
consumers
300-500 control 70%
trade of each
COMPANIES commodity
1.5 BILLION
producers

19. palm white
beef cocoa coffee sugar soy cotton shrimp
oil fish

20. 25%
of demand pulls
40-50%
of production

21. by 2050
need twice as much food

22. Food wedges
urban
waste
agriculture
carbon genetics
over & under
technology
consumption
property better
rights practices
degraded
land

23. waste
1 out of 3 calories

24. Food and fiber waste
• A green energy issue
• First point of aggregation
• Sugar, pulp, palm
oil, timber, CAFOs
• New England dairy
Photo: Gills Onion Power Plant

25. genetics
“dance with the one
that brung you”

26. World daily caloric intake
wheat 560
rice 540
corn 375
sugarcane/beet 245
soybeans 185
potatoes 65
palm oil 60
barley 50
sorghum 45
sunflowers 44
cassava 43 Direct Consumption
rapeseed 42 Indirect Consumption
peanuts 40 (animal feed)
cotton seed oil 12
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Daily calories per capita

27. Sugar
Bananas
Corn

29. Mars won’t buy
certified poverty

33. Greening & Citrus
• Every major growing area infected
• 5-10% of trees lost/year
• No company can solve the problem alone
• Map the genome of citrus & the disease
• Global trade and disease

34. today’s
technology
agriculture is 70% of water use

35. 1 liter of water = 1calorie

36. Global drought 11/2012
Source: UCL Department of Space & Climate Physics - Nov 2012

37. Global drought forecast 2030-2039
Source: UCAR, PDSI 2012

38. better practices
100 times better

39. Performance curve
government voluntary
regulation standards
number of producers
performance shift
worse average better

40. 21 st century supply chains
producers traders manufacturers brands retailers consumers

41. 21st Century supply chains
• More global but more redundancy
• Longer-term contracts
• Data and transparency
• Manufacturing sites

43. IKEA and BCI Cotton—2005-10
IKEA Cotton Use
• 100,000 MT/yr (24% certified)
• 400,000 producers (10% certified)
Producer Impacts of BCI & BMPs
• 60% less pesticide
• 40% less water
• 30% less synthetic fertilizer
• 15-20% more income

47. 35,000 farmers
3,000 employees

48. Unilever’s commitment:
100%
sustainable ingredients

49. But, one company at a time
is not fast enough

51. CGF – Precompetitive
approaches
• 57 companies
• Deforestation out of supply chains
• 4 commodities, 4 countries
• By 2020

52. Banking Environment
Initiative (BEI)
• 10 banks
• Deforestation & lending portfolios
• Palm oil in Indonesia
• Banks in Brazil – soy & beef

53. commodities &
externalities
sugar coffee beef cocoa

55. Carbon emissions in Tetra Pak supply chain
2020 Goal = 10.8 MT CO₂
raw materials, brands, retailers, end of
production, processing consumer use life
45% 38% 10%
6%
Tetra Pak
direct emissions

56. Traded commodities – then and now
physical values intangible values
weights and measures organic
quality non-GMO
color water
foreign matter no child labor
health and safety carbon

57. Commodities and
Supply Chains
• Global trade doubled, but barriers
persist
• Maintain efficiency
• More data and transparency
• Redefine collusion and precompetitive
• New role for traders

58. Reduce transactions
purchases
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

59. Pool commitments
purchases
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

60. illegal illegal
SPECIES MINERALS FISH FOREST PLANTATION
tigers gold bluefin tuna pulp palm oil
elephants coltan demersal fishes timber soy
rhinos diamonds shrimp and prawns mangroves beef

61. “If you don’t know where you’re going,
any road will get you there.”

62. think about it