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STARTUP FINANCES
FORECASTING, MODELLING & METRICS
MY VANTAGE POINT
EXCITED 		 	 	 	 	 	 ALIGNED
VC PROCESS (SIMPLIFIED)
FINANCIALS?
I DON’T HAVE THOSE.
1) UNIT ECONOMICS
2) MARKET OPPORTUNITY
3) CASH FLOW PLAN
SURE YOU DO…
REVENUES & COSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BIZ MODEL ON A UNIT
BASIS (COMMON DENOMINATOR)
UNIT ECONOMICS
EXAMPLE
DEMAND THAT A FIRM CAN
EXPLOIT BECAUSE IT IS NOT BEING
ADDRESSED
MARKET OPPORTUNITY
EXAMPLE
#	Registered Market	Size	(buy) Market	Size Percentage
Africa 190,152								 57,045,600$													 34,227,360$										 5.27%
Americas 480,879								 144,263,700$										 86,558,220$										 13.32%
Asia 1,311,823					 393,546,900$										 236,128,140$								 36.33%
Europe 1,163,058					 348,917,400$										 209,350,440$								 32.21%
Oceania 465,395								 139,618,500$										 83,771,100$										 12.89%
World	Total 3,611,307			 1,083,392,100$				 650,035,260$					 100%
EXPECTED INFLOWS & OUTFLOWS
OF CASH OVER A DEFINED PERIOD
OF TIME
CASH FLOW PLAN
EXAMPLE
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Operations
Cash	In Revenue 598,000$								 1,867,500$								 4,975,000$								 6,965,000$								 8,955,000$								
CoGS 100,000$								 337,500$											 1,012,500$								 1,275,750$								 1,125,000$								
Contribution	Margin 498,000$								 1,530,000$								 3,962,500$								 5,689,250$								 7,830,000$								
83% 82% 80% 82% 87%
Cash	Out Salaries $330,000 $770,000 $1,320,000 $1,980,000 $2,750,000
Working	Capital $84,375 $253,125 $318,938 $281,250 $421,875
Rent	+	Office	Expense $20,000 $43,750 $65,625 $87,500 $109,375
R&D	/	Prototyping $150,000 $500,000 $625,000 $687,500 $756,250
Legal/Accounting $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $225,000 $337,500
Marketing $149,500 $466,875 $746,250 $1,044,750 $1,343,250
Total $783,875 $2,133,750 $3,225,813 $4,306,000 $5,718,250
Cash	Flow	from	Operations (285,875)$							 (603,750)$										 736,688$											 1,383,250$								 2,111,750$								
Financing
Equity $500,000 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0
SRED $25,000 $75,000 $250,000 $312,500 $343,750
CASH	BALANCE $200,000 $439,125 $910,375 $1,897,063 $3,592,813 $6,048,313
FINAL THOUGHTS
IF YOU WERE GOING TO BUILD ONE OF THESE…
YOU’D PROBABLY WANT SOME OF THESE FIRST
DISCUSSION
EXAMPLE
"Beachhead"	Rep	(BH) "Farmer"	Rep	(F)
Billings
Deals	/	Month 3.00																																	 4.00																						
Deals	/	Year 36.00																															 48.00																				
Avg	Price	Point 6,500$																												 6,500$																		
$	/	Rep	/	Year 234,000$																								 312,000$													
Costs
Base	$ 65,000$																										 45,000$																
Commission	% 15.0% 12.5%
Commission	$ 35,100$																										 39,000$																
OTE	$ 100,100$																								 84,000$																
Allocated	Costs 35,000$																										 25,000																		
Total 135,100$																								 109,000$													
Contribution	Margin
First	Year	$ 98,900$																										 203,000$													
First	Year	% 42% 65%
Life	Time	Value	$ 566,900$																								 827,000$													
LTV/CAC 4x 8x

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Startup finances: Forecasting, Modelling & Metrics

  • 3. EXCITED ALIGNED VC PROCESS (SIMPLIFIED)
  • 5. 1) UNIT ECONOMICS 2) MARKET OPPORTUNITY 3) CASH FLOW PLAN SURE YOU DO…
  • 6. REVENUES & COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH A BIZ MODEL ON A UNIT BASIS (COMMON DENOMINATOR) UNIT ECONOMICS
  • 8. DEMAND THAT A FIRM CAN EXPLOIT BECAUSE IT IS NOT BEING ADDRESSED MARKET OPPORTUNITY
  • 9. EXAMPLE # Registered Market Size (buy) Market Size Percentage Africa 190,152 57,045,600$ 34,227,360$ 5.27% Americas 480,879 144,263,700$ 86,558,220$ 13.32% Asia 1,311,823 393,546,900$ 236,128,140$ 36.33% Europe 1,163,058 348,917,400$ 209,350,440$ 32.21% Oceania 465,395 139,618,500$ 83,771,100$ 12.89% World Total 3,611,307 1,083,392,100$ 650,035,260$ 100%
  • 10. EXPECTED INFLOWS & OUTFLOWS OF CASH OVER A DEFINED PERIOD OF TIME CASH FLOW PLAN
  • 11. EXAMPLE 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Operations Cash In Revenue 598,000$ 1,867,500$ 4,975,000$ 6,965,000$ 8,955,000$ CoGS 100,000$ 337,500$ 1,012,500$ 1,275,750$ 1,125,000$ Contribution Margin 498,000$ 1,530,000$ 3,962,500$ 5,689,250$ 7,830,000$ 83% 82% 80% 82% 87% Cash Out Salaries $330,000 $770,000 $1,320,000 $1,980,000 $2,750,000 Working Capital $84,375 $253,125 $318,938 $281,250 $421,875 Rent + Office Expense $20,000 $43,750 $65,625 $87,500 $109,375 R&D / Prototyping $150,000 $500,000 $625,000 $687,500 $756,250 Legal/Accounting $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $225,000 $337,500 Marketing $149,500 $466,875 $746,250 $1,044,750 $1,343,250 Total $783,875 $2,133,750 $3,225,813 $4,306,000 $5,718,250 Cash Flow from Operations (285,875)$ (603,750)$ 736,688$ 1,383,250$ 2,111,750$ Financing Equity $500,000 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 SRED $25,000 $75,000 $250,000 $312,500 $343,750 CASH BALANCE $200,000 $439,125 $910,375 $1,897,063 $3,592,813 $6,048,313
  • 13. IF YOU WERE GOING TO BUILD ONE OF THESE…
  • 14. YOU’D PROBABLY WANT SOME OF THESE FIRST
  • 16. EXAMPLE "Beachhead" Rep (BH) "Farmer" Rep (F) Billings Deals / Month 3.00 4.00 Deals / Year 36.00 48.00 Avg Price Point 6,500$ 6,500$ $ / Rep / Year 234,000$ 312,000$ Costs Base $ 65,000$ 45,000$ Commission % 15.0% 12.5% Commission $ 35,100$ 39,000$ OTE $ 100,100$ 84,000$ Allocated Costs 35,000$ 25,000 Total 135,100$ 109,000$ Contribution Margin First Year $ 98,900$ 203,000$ First Year % 42% 65% Life Time Value $ 566,900$ 827,000$ LTV/CAC 4x 8x