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Macadamias and Opals
Opal
Select Harvests Ltd – share price
16.00


14.00


12.00


10.00


 8.00


 6.00


 4.00


 2.00


 0.00




                                       Source: Capital IQ
Select Harvests Ltd – share price
16.00
                                Orchards (acres)
                                Owned & Leased: 2,400                      Orchards (acres)
14.00                           Managed: 18,100                            Owned & Leased: 12,600
                                                                           Managed: 4,400
12.00


10.00
            Orchards (acres)
            Owned & Leased: 2,400
 8.00       Managed: 11,500


 6.00
        Orchards (acres)
 4.00   Owned & Leased: 2,100

                                                   Orchards (acres)
 2.00
                                                   Owned & Leased: 3,400
                                                   Managed: 35,300
 0.00



                                                                                      Source: Capital IQ
USD per metric tonne




                                $50.00
                                                      $150.00
                                                                           $250.00




                                         $100.00
                                                                 $200.00
                                                                                     $300.00

                      Aug-02
                      Jan-03
                      Jun-03
                      Nov-03
                      Apr-04
                      Sep-04
                      Feb-05
                       Jul-05
                      Dec-05
                      May-06
                      Oct-06
                      Mar-07
                      Aug-07
                      Jan-08
                                                                                               Barley price - $US per metric tonne




                      Jun-08
                      Nov-08
                      Apr-09
                      Sep-09
                      Feb-10
                       Jul-10
                      Dec-10
                      May-11
                      Oct-11
                      Mar-12
                      Aug-12
Source: Index Mundi
USD per metric tonne




                                                                        $500.00
                                                                                                                $900.00
                                                                                                                          $1,000.00
                                                                                                                                      $1,100.00




                                $100.00
                                          $200.00
                                                    $300.00
                                                              $400.00
                                                                                  $600.00
                                                                                            $700.00
                                                                                                      $800.00
                      Aug-02
                      Jan-03
                      Jun-03
                      Nov-03
                      Apr-04
                      Sep-04
                      Feb-05
                       Jul-05
                      Dec-05
                      May-06
                      Oct-06
                      Mar-07
                      Aug-07
                                                                                                                                                  Rice price - $US per metric tonne




                      Jan-08
                      Jun-08
                      Nov-08
                      Apr-09
                      Sep-09
                      Feb-10
                       Jul-10
                      Dec-10
                      May-11
                      Oct-11
                      Mar-12
                      Aug-12
Source: Index Mundi
USD per metric tonne




                                0
                                    5
                                        10
                                                 15
                                                         20
                                                                    25
                                                                         30
                                                                              35
                      Aug-02
                      Jan-03
                      Jun-03
                      Nov-03
                      Apr-04
                      Sep-04
                      Feb-05
                       Jul-05
                      Dec-05
                      May-06
                      Oct-06
                      Mar-07
                      Aug-07
                      Jan-08
                                                                                   Sugar price - $US per metric tonne




                      Jun-08
                      Nov-08
                      Apr-09
                      Sep-09
                      Feb-10
                       Jul-10
                      Dec-10
                      May-11
                      Oct-11
                      Mar-12
                      Aug-12
Source: Index Mundi
USD per metric tonne




                                100
                                      200
                                                      400
                                                              500
                                                                    600




                                               300
                      Aug-02
                      Jan-03
                      Jun-03
                      Nov-03
                      Apr-04
                      Sep-04
                      Feb-05
                       Jul-05
                      Dec-05
                      May-06
                      Oct-06
                      Mar-07
                      Aug-07
                      Jan-08
                      Jun-08
                      Nov-08
                                                                          Soybeans price - $US per metric tonne




                      Apr-09
                      Sep-09
                      Feb-10
                       Jul-10
                      Dec-10
                      May-11
                      Oct-11
                      Mar-12
                      Aug-12
Source: Index Mundi
USD per metric tonne




                                                  110
                                                         130
                                                                150
                                                                      170
                                                                            190




                                50
                                     70
                                          90
                      Aug-02
                      Jan-03
                      Jun-03
                      Nov-03
                      Apr-04
                      Sep-04
                      Feb-05
                       Jul-05
                      Dec-05
                      May-06
                      Oct-06
                      Mar-07
                      Aug-07
                      Jan-08
                                                                                  Beef price - $US per metric tonne




                      Jun-08
                      Nov-08
                      Apr-09
                      Sep-09
                      Feb-10
                       Jul-10
                      Dec-10
                      May-11
                      Oct-11
                      Mar-12
                      Aug-12
Source: Index Mundi
USD per metric tonne




                                100
                                      150
                                            200
                                                      250
                                                              300
                                                                         350
                                                                               400
                                                                                     450
                      Aug-02
                      Jan-03
                      Jun-03
                      Nov-03
                      Apr-04
                      Sep-04
                      Feb-05
                       Jul-05
                      Dec-05
                      May-06
                      Oct-06
                      Mar-07
                      Aug-07
                      Jan-08
                      Jun-08
                                                                                           Wheat price - $US per metric tonne




                      Nov-08
                      Apr-09
                      Sep-09
                      Feb-10
                       Jul-10
                      Dec-10
                      May-11
                      Oct-11
                      Mar-12
                      Aug-12
Source: Index Mundi
USD per metric tonne




                                           120
                                                 170
                                                       220
                                                             270
                                                                   320




                                20
                                     70
                      Aug-02
                      Jan-03
                      Jun-03
                      Nov-03
                      Apr-04
                      Sep-04
                      Feb-05
                       Jul-05
                      Dec-05
                      May-06
                      Oct-06
                      Mar-07
                      Aug-07
                      Jan-08
                                                                         Corn price - $US per metric tonne




                      Jun-08
                      Nov-08
                      Apr-09
                      Sep-09
                      Feb-10
                       Jul-10
                      Dec-10
                      May-11
                      Oct-11
                      Mar-12
                      Aug-12
Source: Index Mundi
Shares of urban household expenditure on food: all
  households (%)




                    Bangladesh

                                 Cambodia



                                                    Indonesia




                                                                                        Thailand



                                                                                                             Vietnam
                                                                        Pakistan



                                                                                                    Uganda
                                                                Kenya
                                            India
Expenditure item
Purchased food      51 53 41 53 39                                      42 35 37 41
Nonpurchased food   3.9 6.6 0.8 3.2 6.9                                  2 4.5 6.5 2.6
Total food          55 60 42 56 46                                      44 40 44 44
                                                                                   Source: World Bank
Shares of rural household expenditure on food: all
   households (%)




                    Bangladesh

                                 Cambodia



                                                    Indonesia




                                                                                      Thailand



                                                                                                           Vietnam
                                                                        Pakistan



                                                                                                  Uganda
                                                                Kenya
                                            India
Expenditure item
Purchased food      49           52         49      55          35      42            35          27       38
Nonpurchased food   15           20         11      11          25      14            11          29       16
Total food          64           72         60      66          60      56            46          56       54
                                                                                   Source: World Bank
Select Harvests Ltd – share price
16.00
                                Orchards (acres)
                                Owned & Leased: 2,400                      Orchards (acres)
14.00                           Managed: 18,100                            Owned & Leased: 12,600
                                                                           Managed: 4,400
12.00


10.00
            Orchards (acres)
            Owned & Leased: 2,400
 8.00       Managed: 11,500


 6.00
        Orchards (acres)
 4.00   Owned & Leased: 2,100

                                                   Orchards (acres)
 2.00
                                                   Owned & Leased: 3,400
                                                   Managed: 35,300
 0.00



                                                                                      Source: Capital IQ
Industry investment is now likely to come from


                    Sovereign Wealth Funds
Industry investment is now likely to come from


             Endowment Funds and Agri Focussed Investors
Industry investment is now likely to come from


                       Private Equity
Australian plantings

                            18,000                                                                                           6,000



                            16,000
                                                                                                                             5,000

                            14,000
Area under plantings (Ha)




                            12,000                                                                                           4,000




                                                                                                                                     Plantings (000s trees)
                            10,000
                                                                                                                             3,000

                             8,000

                             6,000                                                                                           2,000



                             4,000
                                                                                                                             1,000

                             2,000

                                -                                                                                            -
                                     2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009      2010       2011
                                                                                             Source: Australian Macadamia Society orchards census
Global macadamia kernel production CAGR 2003-
                                        2012

                                        12%   11%
                                                    10%
Growth / decline in production volume




                                        10%               9%

                                        8%
                                                                                                                                            6.40%
                                        6%                     5%
                                                                                                                                4.50%
                                        4%
                                                                    2%
                                        2%
                                                                         0%   0%   NA          NA          NA
                                        0%

                                        -2%
                                                                                                                      -3%
                                        -4%




                                                                                   Source: International Dried Fruit & Nut Association Statistics Database
Opal
Normalised Google Searches




                                       10
                                                    20
                                                            30
                                                                  40
                                                                        50
                                                                              60
                                                                                      70
                                                                                                  90


                                                                                             80




                                   0
                          Jan-04
                          May-04
                          Sep-04
                          Jan-05
                          May-05
                          Sep-05
                                                                                   Almonds
                          Jan-06




                                       Macadamias
                          May-06
                                                                                                       Google searches:




                          Sep-06
                          Jan-07
                          May-07
                          Sep-07
                          Jan-08
                          May-08
                          Sep-08
                          Jan-09
                          May-09
                          Sep-09
                          Jan-10
                                                                                                       almonds and macadamias 2004 - 2012




                          May-10
                          Sep-10
                          Jan-11
                          May-11
                          Sep-11
Source: Google Insights




                          Jan-12
                          May-12
                          Sep-12
Most Almond Google searches are from:




                                        Source: Google Insights
Most Macadamia Google searches are from:




                                     Source: Google Insights
Almonds and macadamia searches – developed
countries (Macadamias in red)

                                      Japan

                                       Italy

                             United Kingdom
Normalised Google Searches




                                      Spain

                                     France

                                   Germany

                                    Canada

                               United States

                               New Zealand

                                   Australia

                                               0   20   40   60   80                100

                                                                       Source: Google Insights
Almonds and macadamia searches – emerging
countries (Macadamias in red)

                                  China


                                 Russia
Normalised Google Searches




                              Argentina


                                   India


                               Malaysia


                             Philippines


                                  Brazil


                                           0   10   20   30   40                  50

                                                               Source: Google Insights
Macadamias and Opals

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Plenary session 1 the tricks and trials of investing in nut production - david williams

  • 3. Select Harvests Ltd – share price 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Source: Capital IQ
  • 4. Select Harvests Ltd – share price 16.00 Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 2,400 Orchards (acres) 14.00 Managed: 18,100 Owned & Leased: 12,600 Managed: 4,400 12.00 10.00 Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 2,400 8.00 Managed: 11,500 6.00 Orchards (acres) 4.00 Owned & Leased: 2,100 Orchards (acres) 2.00 Owned & Leased: 3,400 Managed: 35,300 0.00 Source: Capital IQ
  • 5. USD per metric tonne $50.00 $150.00 $250.00 $100.00 $200.00 $300.00 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Barley price - $US per metric tonne Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Source: Index Mundi
  • 6. USD per metric tonne $500.00 $900.00 $1,000.00 $1,100.00 $100.00 $200.00 $300.00 $400.00 $600.00 $700.00 $800.00 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Rice price - $US per metric tonne Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Source: Index Mundi
  • 7. USD per metric tonne 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Sugar price - $US per metric tonne Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Source: Index Mundi
  • 8. USD per metric tonne 100 200 400 500 600 300 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Soybeans price - $US per metric tonne Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Source: Index Mundi
  • 9. USD per metric tonne 110 130 150 170 190 50 70 90 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Beef price - $US per metric tonne Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Source: Index Mundi
  • 10. USD per metric tonne 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Wheat price - $US per metric tonne Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Source: Index Mundi
  • 11. USD per metric tonne 120 170 220 270 320 20 70 Aug-02 Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Corn price - $US per metric tonne Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Source: Index Mundi
  • 12. Shares of urban household expenditure on food: all households (%) Bangladesh Cambodia Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Pakistan Uganda Kenya India Expenditure item Purchased food 51 53 41 53 39 42 35 37 41 Nonpurchased food 3.9 6.6 0.8 3.2 6.9 2 4.5 6.5 2.6 Total food 55 60 42 56 46 44 40 44 44 Source: World Bank
  • 13. Shares of rural household expenditure on food: all households (%) Bangladesh Cambodia Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Pakistan Uganda Kenya India Expenditure item Purchased food 49 52 49 55 35 42 35 27 38 Nonpurchased food 15 20 11 11 25 14 11 29 16 Total food 64 72 60 66 60 56 46 56 54 Source: World Bank
  • 14. Select Harvests Ltd – share price 16.00 Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 2,400 Orchards (acres) 14.00 Managed: 18,100 Owned & Leased: 12,600 Managed: 4,400 12.00 10.00 Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 2,400 8.00 Managed: 11,500 6.00 Orchards (acres) 4.00 Owned & Leased: 2,100 Orchards (acres) 2.00 Owned & Leased: 3,400 Managed: 35,300 0.00 Source: Capital IQ
  • 15. Industry investment is now likely to come from Sovereign Wealth Funds
  • 16. Industry investment is now likely to come from Endowment Funds and Agri Focussed Investors
  • 17. Industry investment is now likely to come from Private Equity
  • 18. Australian plantings 18,000 6,000 16,000 5,000 14,000 Area under plantings (Ha) 12,000 4,000 Plantings (000s trees) 10,000 3,000 8,000 6,000 2,000 4,000 1,000 2,000 - - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Australian Macadamia Society orchards census
  • 19. Global macadamia kernel production CAGR 2003- 2012 12% 11% 10% Growth / decline in production volume 10% 9% 8% 6.40% 6% 5% 4.50% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% NA NA NA 0% -2% -3% -4% Source: International Dried Fruit & Nut Association Statistics Database
  • 20. Opal
  • 21. Normalised Google Searches 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 90 80 0 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Almonds Jan-06 Macadamias May-06 Google searches: Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 almonds and macadamias 2004 - 2012 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Source: Google Insights Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
  • 22. Most Almond Google searches are from: Source: Google Insights
  • 23. Most Macadamia Google searches are from: Source: Google Insights
  • 24. Almonds and macadamia searches – developed countries (Macadamias in red) Japan Italy United Kingdom Normalised Google Searches Spain France Germany Canada United States New Zealand Australia 0 20 40 60 80 100 Source: Google Insights
  • 25. Almonds and macadamia searches – emerging countries (Macadamias in red) China Russia Normalised Google Searches Argentina India Malaysia Philippines Brazil 0 10 20 30 40 50 Source: Google Insights