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International Macadamia Symposium
Global Conference – Brisbane, Australia
U.S. Market Profile



    Dennis J. Simonis
    September 2012
U.S. Economic Environment
      Economic Measure                2008    2009     2010              2011

            GDP (% chg)               2.2%    -1.7%     3.8%              1.7%




                                                                                       For Use by Intended Recipient Only
      Unemployment (%, SA)             5.8     9.3       9.6               9.2


  Consumer Price Inflation (% Chg)    3.8%    -0.3%     1.6%              1.7%


        Retail Sales (% Chg)          -1.0%   -6.4%     6.6%              6.5%


   Residential Permits, Total (Mil)    3.6     2.3       2.4               3.5


                                                                                               2


                                                      Source: Moody’s, February 2011
Many consumers pessimistic




                                                                           For Use by Intended Recipient Only
                                                                                   3
      Personal Financial Health versus Last Year
                  % of Consumers
                                          Source: Moody’s, February 2011
And expect more COL increases
                                                            Improve
                                                            Pt Chg YA
                                                               (2.6)




                                                                            For Use by Intended Recipient Only
                                                               (0.1)



                                                              (7.1)




                                                                                    4
   Consumer Perceptions of Economic and Financial Health
                     % of Consumers
                                           Source: Moody’s, February 2011
U.S. Snack Market Profile




    For Use by Intended Recipient Only
5
Snack food industry overview




                                                                                          For Use by Intended Recipient Only
                                                                                                  6
 • Large industry generating $67.7 billion in FDMWC during 2010
                          Source: Symphony/IRI Group “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
Snack food industry overview




                                                                                          For Use by Intended Recipient Only
                                                                                                  7
 • Overall flat sales with some segments growing +5% annually
                          Source: Symphony/IRI Group “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
Snack food market drivers




                                                         For Use by Intended Recipient Only
  The     Health &                             Company
                     Satiation   Portability
Economy   Wellness                              Values




                                                                 8
Consumers more health focused

                                          71%
                                    of consumers




                                                                               For Use by Intended Recipient Only
                      are trying to eat
                         healthier
                                                                                       9


               Source: Symphony/IRI Group “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
Influencing snack choices
                                 60%                  of consumers
                          are trying to eat foods that
  40%    of consumers   help prevent health problems
                        and/or manage existing health
  view snacks as an




                                                                                        For Use by Intended Recipient Only
                                   conditions
  important part of a
    healthy eating
   plan throughout
                                  24% of consumers
                        seek snacks that offer benefits
       the day             beyond basic nutrition


                                                                                        10


                        Source: Symphony/IRI Group “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
Snack consumer drivers
Proven attributes                     Emerging attributes



  •   Low Fat            50%             •




                                                                                          For Use by Intended Recipient Only
                                             Low Salt/Sodium               45%
  •   Low Cholesterol    47%             •   All Natural/Natural           39%
  •   Low Sugar          47%                 Ingredients

  •   High Fiber         46%             •   Gluten Free                   37%

  •   Low Calorie        45%
  •   Whole Grains       44%

                                                                                          11

                     Important Product Attributes
                                                      Source: Symphony/IRI Group
                          % of Consumers             “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
Emerging attributes potential
  Organic/Natural Snacks                 Gluten Free Foods




                                                                                           For Use by Intended Recipient Only
                                                                                           12

                           Source: Symphony/IRI Group “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
                                   Packaged Facts, “2011 Gluten Free Foods Report”
Healthy outpacing indulgent
Nutritional Snacks/Trail Mixes      +9.8%
Yogurt                              +8.1%        Total
Snack Nuts                          +7.6%       Healthier
                                                 +4.4%
Snack/Granola Bars                  +7.4%




                                                                                  For Use by Intended Recipient Only
Salsa                               +6.7%

Prepared Pudding                    +13.7%
Chocolate Covered Salted Snacks     +13.5%
                                                 Total
Dried Meat Snacks                   +10.0%     Indulgent
Rfg. Appetizers/Snack Rolls         +8.9%        +1.2%
Chocolate Candy                     +4.7%                                         13

                    FDMx $ Growth
                                              Source: Symphony/IRI Group
                     2011 v 2010             “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
Causing a share shift




                                                                            For Use by Intended Recipient Only
                                                                            14
         Share of Dollar Sales- FDMx
                2010 v 2006
                                        Source: Symphony/IRI Group
                                       “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
Satiation is an important benefit




                                                                            For Use by Intended Recipient Only
                                                                            15
         Perception of the Role of Snacks
                 % of Consumers         Source: Symphony/IRI Group
                                       “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
Portability is also important
• Consumers are spending more time in transit
• Products that provide healthy satiation are benefitting

             39%




                                                                                        For Use by Intended Recipient Only
          of consumers
 seek snacks that can
  be eaten on the go


                                                                                        16

                                                    Source: Symphony/IRI Group
                                                   “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
Company Values Do Matter
• Customers that care about healthy eating
  care about:
  • Environmental and safe growing
    practices
  • Green packaging
  • Clean ingredient statements
  • Do you have a higher “cause”?
  • Key Partnerships and Influencers
  • Doing business ethically
Snack Nut Segment




     For Use by Intended Recipient Only
18
Snack nut sales
                                                       Sales of nuts, 2005-15
                          7,000

                          6,500
Millions of dollars ($)




                          6,000

                          5,500

                          5,000




                                                                                                                                   For Use by Intended Recipient Only
                          4,500

                          4,000

                          3,500

                          3,000
                                  2005   2006   2007   2008   2009     2010      2011      2012      2013      2014      2015
                                                                       (est.)   (fore.)   (fore.)   (fore.)   (fore.)   (fore.)



      • Nut sales were $5B in 2010, up 46% versus 2005
      • Health is the primary sales driver
      • Favorable trends will drive 6% CAGR through 2015                                                                           19
                                                              Source: The Mintel Group Nuts and Dried Fruit Report, January 2011
Snack nut consumer
                  Past month snack consumption, by gender, September 2010
                                              Percent of respondents (%)
              0      10      20          30         40          50            60          70        80            90

Fresh fruit                                                                                    79
                                                                                                      84
     Chips                                                                                           83
                                                                                                    82
  Crackers                                                               60
                                                                                     68




                                                                                                                       For Use by Intended Recipient Only
      Nuts                                                                    62
                                                                                64
Vegetables                                                          56
                                                                                   66
  Popcorn                                                     51
                                                                         59
  Pretzels                                        41
                                                       44
Dried fruit                       26                                                                       Male
                                        30
  Trail mix                       26                                                                       Female
                                   27


     • Over 60% of consumers snack on nuts monthly
     • Only Fresh Fruit and Chips are consumed at a higher rate
                                                                                                                       20
                                                 Source: The Mintel Group Nut and Dried Fruit Report, January 2011
Snack nut consumer




                                                                                                 For Use by Intended Recipient Only
• Consumers view nuts as a good source of energy
• Energy is a key benefit that is being used to increase sales                                   21

                            Source: The Mintel Group Nuts and Dried Fruit Report, January 2011
U.S. Macadamia Nut Market




     For Use by Intended Recipient Only
22
IMS Conference – September 2012
U.S. Supply
 Metric Tons                        2010                 2011     2012 est.
 Domestic Production                3,890                4,500     4,300

 Kernel Imports

            Kenya                   1,498                2,578     2,600




                                                                              For Use by Intended Recipient Only
            S. Africa               2,336                2,437     2,500

            Australia               1,384                 396       750

            All Others              2,013                2,026     1,950

               Total                7,231                7,437     7,800
 Kernel Exports                     (733)                (735)     (800)

            Consumption            11,202                11,300    11,300
 Est.       Global Crop            27,574                29,000    32,500
 Est.       % of Global Crop        40.6%                39.0%     34.8%
                                                                              23
                               Source USDA NSS Reports
Macadamia commodity price
Historical and Projected
                                           Price per pound
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00




                                                                                                                                      For Use by Intended Recipient Only
$3.00
$2.00
        1999
               2000
                      2001
                             2002
                                    2003
                                           2004
                                                  2005
                                                         2006
                                                                2007
                                                                       2008
                                                                              2009
                                                                                     2010
                                                                                            2011
                                                                                                   2012
                                                                                                          2013
                                                                                                                 2014
                                                                                                                        2015
                                                                                                                               2016
• Pricing driven up primarily by increased demand, China
  consumption and lower then expected Australian crop
   • Weather has affected crop size
   • Pricing is projected to decline as the global crop increases
   • Normal weather in Australia
                                                                                                                                      24
   • New acreage in South Africa
Continental U.S. macadamias
 Situation

 •52 weeks FDM sales ending were $10.0MM (-6.0%)
 •Private label is the leading brand with a 49% share
 •Mauna Loa is #2 with a 34% share




                                                                                        For Use by Intended Recipient Only
 •Macadamia sales shifted to other nuts, primarily almonds

 Key issues

 •Loss of distribution in major continental US FDM retailers
 •Lack of brand support with consumers and trade
 •Lack of product innovation capitalizing on wellness trends
                                                                                        25

                                                               (1) IRI FDM Sales data
Macadamia nut consumer




                                                                                 For Use by Intended Recipient Only
                                                                                 26

            Source: The Mintel Group Nuts and Dried Fruit Report, January 2011
IMS Conference
U.S. Macadamia Consumption

Mix by Geographic Market:

      Hawaii                         20 %   2.200 MT




                                                        For Use by Intended Recipient Only
      U.S. Mainland                  80%    9.100 MT



        Total                       100 %   11.300 MT


                                                        27
                • Internal estimates only
IMS Conference
U.S. Macadamia Consumption
Continental US
Macadamia Nuts and Related Products
Mix by Channel

($ million)




                                                       For Use by Intended Recipient Only
        Grocery     23.0               38%
        Drug         3.4                6%
        Mass         0.8                1%
        Club        33.3               55%
          Total     60.5               100%

                            Internal estimates only.   28
IMS Conference
U.S. Macadamia Consumption
US Market Potential

• If marketed aggressively and properly, the U.S. market could
  absorb 100% of the global macadamia crop.

     • Direct selling opportunities offer tremendous potential
     • Club stores, mainly Costco, are carrying the weight, but Food, Drug
       and Mass channels are largely underserved
     • Health attributes have not been adequately communicated
     • Inconsistent quality of foreign kernel has been an issue
     • Consistent supply is a challenge in the current market

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What’s driving demand around the globe united states - dennis simonis

  • 1. International Macadamia Symposium Global Conference – Brisbane, Australia U.S. Market Profile Dennis J. Simonis September 2012
  • 2. U.S. Economic Environment Economic Measure 2008 2009 2010 2011 GDP (% chg) 2.2% -1.7% 3.8% 1.7% For Use by Intended Recipient Only Unemployment (%, SA) 5.8 9.3 9.6 9.2 Consumer Price Inflation (% Chg) 3.8% -0.3% 1.6% 1.7% Retail Sales (% Chg) -1.0% -6.4% 6.6% 6.5% Residential Permits, Total (Mil) 3.6 2.3 2.4 3.5 2 Source: Moody’s, February 2011
  • 3. Many consumers pessimistic For Use by Intended Recipient Only 3 Personal Financial Health versus Last Year % of Consumers Source: Moody’s, February 2011
  • 4. And expect more COL increases Improve Pt Chg YA (2.6) For Use by Intended Recipient Only (0.1) (7.1) 4 Consumer Perceptions of Economic and Financial Health % of Consumers Source: Moody’s, February 2011
  • 5. U.S. Snack Market Profile For Use by Intended Recipient Only 5
  • 6. Snack food industry overview For Use by Intended Recipient Only 6 • Large industry generating $67.7 billion in FDMWC during 2010 Source: Symphony/IRI Group “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
  • 7. Snack food industry overview For Use by Intended Recipient Only 7 • Overall flat sales with some segments growing +5% annually Source: Symphony/IRI Group “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
  • 8. Snack food market drivers For Use by Intended Recipient Only The Health & Company Satiation Portability Economy Wellness Values 8
  • 9. Consumers more health focused 71% of consumers For Use by Intended Recipient Only are trying to eat healthier 9 Source: Symphony/IRI Group “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
  • 10. Influencing snack choices 60% of consumers are trying to eat foods that 40% of consumers help prevent health problems and/or manage existing health view snacks as an For Use by Intended Recipient Only conditions important part of a healthy eating plan throughout 24% of consumers seek snacks that offer benefits the day beyond basic nutrition 10 Source: Symphony/IRI Group “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
  • 11. Snack consumer drivers Proven attributes Emerging attributes • Low Fat 50% • For Use by Intended Recipient Only Low Salt/Sodium 45% • Low Cholesterol 47% • All Natural/Natural 39% • Low Sugar 47% Ingredients • High Fiber 46% • Gluten Free 37% • Low Calorie 45% • Whole Grains 44% 11 Important Product Attributes Source: Symphony/IRI Group % of Consumers “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
  • 12. Emerging attributes potential Organic/Natural Snacks Gluten Free Foods For Use by Intended Recipient Only 12 Source: Symphony/IRI Group “State of the Snack Industry 2010” Packaged Facts, “2011 Gluten Free Foods Report”
  • 13. Healthy outpacing indulgent Nutritional Snacks/Trail Mixes +9.8% Yogurt +8.1% Total Snack Nuts +7.6% Healthier +4.4% Snack/Granola Bars +7.4% For Use by Intended Recipient Only Salsa +6.7% Prepared Pudding +13.7% Chocolate Covered Salted Snacks +13.5% Total Dried Meat Snacks +10.0% Indulgent Rfg. Appetizers/Snack Rolls +8.9% +1.2% Chocolate Candy +4.7% 13 FDMx $ Growth Source: Symphony/IRI Group 2011 v 2010 “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
  • 14. Causing a share shift For Use by Intended Recipient Only 14 Share of Dollar Sales- FDMx 2010 v 2006 Source: Symphony/IRI Group “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
  • 15. Satiation is an important benefit For Use by Intended Recipient Only 15 Perception of the Role of Snacks % of Consumers Source: Symphony/IRI Group “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
  • 16. Portability is also important • Consumers are spending more time in transit • Products that provide healthy satiation are benefitting 39% For Use by Intended Recipient Only of consumers seek snacks that can be eaten on the go 16 Source: Symphony/IRI Group “State of the Snack Industry 2010”
  • 17. Company Values Do Matter • Customers that care about healthy eating care about: • Environmental and safe growing practices • Green packaging • Clean ingredient statements • Do you have a higher “cause”? • Key Partnerships and Influencers • Doing business ethically
  • 18. Snack Nut Segment For Use by Intended Recipient Only 18
  • 19. Snack nut sales Sales of nuts, 2005-15 7,000 6,500 Millions of dollars ($) 6,000 5,500 5,000 For Use by Intended Recipient Only 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (est.) (fore.) (fore.) (fore.) (fore.) (fore.) • Nut sales were $5B in 2010, up 46% versus 2005 • Health is the primary sales driver • Favorable trends will drive 6% CAGR through 2015 19 Source: The Mintel Group Nuts and Dried Fruit Report, January 2011
  • 20. Snack nut consumer Past month snack consumption, by gender, September 2010 Percent of respondents (%) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Fresh fruit 79 84 Chips 83 82 Crackers 60 68 For Use by Intended Recipient Only Nuts 62 64 Vegetables 56 66 Popcorn 51 59 Pretzels 41 44 Dried fruit 26 Male 30 Trail mix 26 Female 27 • Over 60% of consumers snack on nuts monthly • Only Fresh Fruit and Chips are consumed at a higher rate 20 Source: The Mintel Group Nut and Dried Fruit Report, January 2011
  • 21. Snack nut consumer For Use by Intended Recipient Only • Consumers view nuts as a good source of energy • Energy is a key benefit that is being used to increase sales 21 Source: The Mintel Group Nuts and Dried Fruit Report, January 2011
  • 22. U.S. Macadamia Nut Market For Use by Intended Recipient Only 22
  • 23. IMS Conference – September 2012 U.S. Supply Metric Tons 2010 2011 2012 est. Domestic Production 3,890 4,500 4,300 Kernel Imports Kenya 1,498 2,578 2,600 For Use by Intended Recipient Only S. Africa 2,336 2,437 2,500 Australia 1,384 396 750 All Others 2,013 2,026 1,950 Total 7,231 7,437 7,800 Kernel Exports (733) (735) (800) Consumption 11,202 11,300 11,300 Est. Global Crop 27,574 29,000 32,500 Est. % of Global Crop 40.6% 39.0% 34.8% 23 Source USDA NSS Reports
  • 24. Macadamia commodity price Historical and Projected Price per pound $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 For Use by Intended Recipient Only $3.00 $2.00 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 • Pricing driven up primarily by increased demand, China consumption and lower then expected Australian crop • Weather has affected crop size • Pricing is projected to decline as the global crop increases • Normal weather in Australia 24 • New acreage in South Africa
  • 25. Continental U.S. macadamias Situation •52 weeks FDM sales ending were $10.0MM (-6.0%) •Private label is the leading brand with a 49% share •Mauna Loa is #2 with a 34% share For Use by Intended Recipient Only •Macadamia sales shifted to other nuts, primarily almonds Key issues •Loss of distribution in major continental US FDM retailers •Lack of brand support with consumers and trade •Lack of product innovation capitalizing on wellness trends 25 (1) IRI FDM Sales data
  • 26. Macadamia nut consumer For Use by Intended Recipient Only 26 Source: The Mintel Group Nuts and Dried Fruit Report, January 2011
  • 27. IMS Conference U.S. Macadamia Consumption Mix by Geographic Market: Hawaii 20 % 2.200 MT For Use by Intended Recipient Only U.S. Mainland 80% 9.100 MT Total 100 % 11.300 MT 27 • Internal estimates only
  • 28. IMS Conference U.S. Macadamia Consumption Continental US Macadamia Nuts and Related Products Mix by Channel ($ million) For Use by Intended Recipient Only Grocery 23.0 38% Drug 3.4 6% Mass 0.8 1% Club 33.3 55% Total 60.5 100% Internal estimates only. 28
  • 29. IMS Conference U.S. Macadamia Consumption US Market Potential • If marketed aggressively and properly, the U.S. market could absorb 100% of the global macadamia crop. • Direct selling opportunities offer tremendous potential • Club stores, mainly Costco, are carrying the weight, but Food, Drug and Mass channels are largely underserved • Health attributes have not been adequately communicated • Inconsistent quality of foreign kernel has been an issue • Consistent supply is a challenge in the current market