A presentation about how future forecasting can help organizations increase their strategic abilities to deal with rapid and unexpected change.

1. Presented by Manie Bosman

2. Session 2

3. 2.1 The Practice of “Futuring”
• What is Strategic Foresight”?
• Is the Future Fixed?
• How does Change Occur?
• What is Changing Where?
• Methods for Futuring
2.2 Scenario Excercise
• Building the Scenario Framework
• Constructing the Scenarios
• Implications of Your Scenarios

5. What is „Strategic Foresight‟?
• Today change is the only constant.
• SF is not predicting the future, but
ANTICIPATING it.
• Creating shared long-term visions/pictures to
facilitate informed short-term decision-
making.
• Identify influencers of the future.
• Timely strategic ACTION - not to be caught
‘unaware’ by the future.
• Can actively influence ‘shapes of things to
come’ to organization’s advantage.

6. Is the Future “Fixed”?
• The future is plural – many possible alternatives.
• Can know most plausible futures, cannot tell
until it happens.
4 types of futures:
• Conceivable or possible futures: All the futures
that we could think of;
• Plausible futures: all the futures that what could
be;
• Probable futures: most likely futures;
• Preferable Futures: the futures that we would
prefer - our future of choice.

7. The Cone of Plausibility
The number of plausible futures
increase as we move further away
from the present moment.

8. Images of Things to Come
Watch the “Images of Our Time”-video (4 min)
• Our images could be shaping or influencing the
future on 2 levels:
- Events that occur today have direct
consequences in the future.
- Images serve as our motifs and guiding stars
which we pursue.
• Leaders can use strong visions to present clear
and attractive images of the future that would
compel people to strive towards fulfilling them.

9. The “What” and “Where” of Change
Driving Forces of Change:
• Constants: things which are not changing
over a specific time period.
• Cycles: things which change
and then change back.
• Trends: things which change
in one direction over long periods of time.
• Issues: things which people disagree about
and for which they have to make a decision.
• Events: things which have just happened
that are still affecting the future.

10. The Domains of Global Change:
• Demographic: having to do with the size and
characteristics of populations.
• Ecological: having to do with nature.
• Technological: having to do with ways of
manipulating the physical world.
• Economic: having to do with the
production, exchange and consumption of
goods and services.
• Political: having to do with collective decision
making.
• Sociocultural: involving both social and cultural
factors.

11. Change Drivers & Domains
DOMAINS Constants Cycles Trends Events Issues
Rise & fall of More World Cup Should we
Sociocultural Modernization spirituality protect the
civilizations Soccer 2010
at work Afrikaans?
Knowledge- BP deploys Should they
Electrical innovation- More cloud
Technological current cap to stop continue US
technology- computing oil spill Space Program?
product
Japan launch Should they
National Less new
Economic Recession pro-growth set fixed rate
currencies car sales
policy for SA Rand?
Island
Drakensberg El Nino – More Global Island volcano
Ecological volcano
Mountains La Niña Warming eruption
eruption
President
Political Parliamentary More media Israel attack Should we
Executive control in SA Gaza boats
Elections vote for ACDP?
Head
Ethnic More Civil service Should we curb
Demographic Immigration overpopulation?
diversity urbanization strike

12. Methods for Futuring
Collecting Information:
• Horizon Scanning: Systematic survey of
information sources.
• Trend Analysis: In-depth look at all issues and
elements related to a trend.
• Trend Monitoring: Continuously monitoring
of important trend.
• Trend Projection: Plotting of numerical data
to give visual presentation of changes.
• Historical Analysis: Past events is scrutinized
and analyzed to anticipate current and future
developments.

13. Processing the Data:
• Polling: Consulting with experts who are
knowledgeable on the relevant issue.
• Brainstorming: New ideas are generated
through small group interaction.
• Gaming: Participants are placed in mock
situations where they play different roles.
• Modeling & Simulation: Future outcomes
are determined by using computers to
simulate outcomes in the real world.
(Continued on next page)

14. Processing the Data:
• Visioning: Specific goals and action plans are
constructed and shared for implementation
in larger group or the organization.
• Scenarios: Identifying possibilities of what
might happen, and constructing these into
stories and
pictures of
what the future
might look like.

17. Approaches to Future Change
Control
Fence-sitters Control-freaks
3 4
Uncertainty
Certainty
2 1
Dice-rollers Fatalists
Absence of Control

18. Approaches to Future Change
• 1st Quadrant (BOTTOM RIGHT): Fatalists
who know what will happen, but feel they
cannot do anything about it.
• 2nd Quadrant (BOTTOM LEFT): Dice-rollers who
believe everything happens by chance and
they have no control over it.
• 3rd Quadrant (TOP LEFT): Fence-sitters who feel a
level of control, but are unsure and hesitant.
• 4th Quadrant (TOP RIGHT): Control-freaks who
think they know what will happen because
they believe they are completely in control.

19. The “mind of a fox”:
Control
Options Decisions
3 4
Uncertainty
Certainty
2 1
-Key uncertainties Rules of
-Scenarios the game
Absence of Control

20. Thinking with the “mind of a fox”
• 1st Quadrant (BOTTOM RIGHT): Rules of the
game – things that are certain & uncontrollable.
• 2nd Quadrant (BOTTOM LEFT): Has 2 components – (1)
critical uncertainties which are uncontrollable; and
(2) plausible and relevant scenarios derived from
these uncertainties.
• 3rd Quadrant (TOP LEFT): Options - things we can do
(over which we have some control) even though
the results are still uncertain.
• 4th Quadrant (TOP RIGHT): Decisions we make based on
the preferred scenario (or outcome) and preferred
options (from the previous quadrant).

21. Building the Scenarios
• STEP 1: Complete the Scenario Framework Table
by using current sources of information on your
organization and its environment.
• STEP 2: Choose a time horizon between five and
fifteen years.
• STEP 3: Describe the focal issue or critical
decision that the scenarios are to illuminate.
• STEP 4: Complete at least one Scan Hits Form.
• STEP 5: Complete the Actors/Stakeholders
Form.
(Continued on next page)

22. (continued)
High impact/medium probability futures
• STEP 6: Describe the conditions and driving
forces outside the organization (trends, events
High
and issues) that are influencing and shaping
the future.
• STEP 7: List the driving forces that are both
highly important in their impact and highly
Impact
uncertain in their outcome.
• STEP 8: Build scenario logics that vary according
to different outcomes for two of the most
critical uncertainties listed in STEP SEVEN.
• STEPLow Create titles for the logics/scenarios.
9: Medium
Probability
High
• STEP 10: Write the scenarios (500 words).

23. Implications of Your Scenarios
• List opportunities and threats that each
scenario presents to your focal issue.
• Ask and discuss questions such as:
- how would the stakeholders change under each
scenario?
- how would each scenario influence your
competitors, suppliers, and customers?
- What needs to be changed, re-aligned or even
abolished if this particular future occurs?
- What challenges would the staff face in light of the
alternative futures?
- What implications do these scenarios have for
decisions and current strategies?

24. Summary:
• There are many possible futures.
• It is possible to influence the occurance
of our preferable futures.
• Strategic foresight enable organizations
to anticipate the future and plan
accordingly.
• Scenarios and other futuring methods
increase our ability to gain strategic
foresight.

25. Session 2

26. Example Framework Table
# Driving Force Descriptions/Assumptions Status Pre-scan Sources
Philadelphia Project
Philadelphia’s commitment is to increase its
1. Mission and Values Stable Strategic Plan: 2009-
leadership training program in Africa.
2014
Philadelphia believes that the need for trained
State of
2. leaders in the African Church is large and Increasing Operation world, 2001.
Marketplace
growing.
Philadelphia assumes that the economies of
Economic African states will continue to suffer, increasing
3. Increasing News Media (general)
Conditions the need for external sponsorship for leadership
programs.
Philadelphia assumes that quality and Information and
Technological
4. availability of communication technology in Increasing Communication
Change
Africa will improve. Technologies.
Philadelphia believes that political stability will
5. Political Conditions Increasing News Media (general)
soon be restored in Zimbabwe and Madagascar.
Aggressive and strategic propagation of Islam
Social / Religious
6. has the potential to increase its growth and Increasing Interviews
Change
resistance to Christianity, especially in Malawi.

27. Example Scan Hit Form
New cable to bring low cost broadband
Title Author Peter Benedict
connectivity to Africa.
Brief source Alcatel-Lucent press release Date June 9, 2010
STEEP Category/s Technology Keywords Africa, broadband, cable, telecommunications, high-speed.
URL http://www.fiercetelecom.com/press_releases/20-operators-team-alcatel-lucent-bring-fast-lower-cost-broadband-connectivity-africa-
Type
Actual event New trend New cycle New plan Potential event New information New issue
(underline one)
Alcatel-Lucent has signed a contract with Africa Coast to Europe (ACE) to install a 17 000km submarine ultra-fast broadband cable system
Brief description of the that will connect South Africa to France, with 23 African countries linked up along the way. This cable, with a speed of 5,12 terabits/sec,
item will help increase sub-Saharan Africa’s data capacity to 20 terabits/sec by the end of 2012. The network will also bring broadband optical
data connectivity to eight African countries that don’t have broadband at present.
Internet connectivity in Africa is generally slower, more unstable and more expensive than in the developed world. This cable will radically
How could the future increase the data capacity, quality and stability of sub-Saharan Africa’s broadband connectivity. Competing with the existing Seacom-cable
be different as a result? (1,28 terabits/sec) and the Wacs (West African Cable System) which is set to become functional in 2011, the new system will also
contribute to bring down data prices on the continent, making internet and data services accessible to millions of people.
…Stakeholder name: The Philadelphia Project
What are the potential With bases in four different countries the Philadelphia Project has to rely on communication technology for various aspects of its internal
implications for…? and external communication functions. The new cable could radically improve these communication systems in the countries where
Philadelphia operates, thereby improving the organization’s communication and management functionality. It could also open new
possibilities of online learning and information access for Philadelphia’s staff and students.
Overall effect Confirming Creating Disconfirming Impact Plausibility
4 5
(underline one) (baseline assumptions) (a new assumption) (baseline assumption) (0-5) (0-5)
Baseline, new or Philadelphia assumes that quality and availability of communication Novelty Timeliness
5 2
resolved scenario(s) technology in Africa will improve (assumption nr 4). (0-5) (0-5)
Date
Scanner Manie Bosman June 9, 2010
Submitted

28. Example High Impact /
Uncertain Outcome Forces
Force Direction A Direction B
1. Dependence on foreign aid More dependant Less dependant
2. HIV/Aids Pandemic Increase Decrease
3. Propagation of Islam Religious stability Religious conflict
4. Martial law in SA Effective governance Ineffective governance
5. Chinese investment Improved infrastructure Weaker infrastructure
6. Malawi Islamic State Religious freedom Islamic fanatism
7. Larger gap between ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ Civil conflict Civil stability
8. Depletion of natural resources Resources depleted Resources sustained
9. UN intervention Peace Conflict
10. SADC countries unified as Azania Prosperity Poverty

29. Example Scenario Logics
2. Increasing gap between ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’
2a. Civil conflict 2b. Civil stability
1a. A
B
1. SADC Prosperity & Civil
Prosperity Prosperity & Civil stability
countries conflict
unified as
Azania 1b. C D
Poverty Poverty & Civil conflict Poverty & Civil stability